Abstract
June 29, 2017
Contents
June 29, 2017
Approved By
Aasim M. Husain
Prepared By Ryadh Alkhareif (OEDSA), Moayad Al Rasasi (SAMA), Nabil Ben Ltaifa, and Sohaib Shahid, with input from Saad A. Alshahrani (Ministry of Finance) and support from Meghan Greene, Diana Kargbo-Sical and Zhe Liu
Contents
FISCAL ADJUSTMENT—SCOPE AND PACE
A. Introduction
B. Fiscal Space Analysis
C. Fiscal Anchors for Resource Rich Countries
D. Conclusions
References
BOX
1. Fiscal Adjustment Experience in the 1980s and 1990s
FIGURES
1. Evolution in Government Spending (2004–16)
2. International Bond Yields
3. Baseline, Fiscal Expansionary, and Oil Price Shock Scenarios
4. Structural Balance Estimates
5. Projected and Sustainable Non-oil Primary Deficit
TABLES
1. Initial Macroeconomic Conditions
2. Initial Structural Conditions
3. Financing Sources and Availability
4. Debt Dynamics
5. Fiscal Space Under Expansionary Fiscal Scenario
6. Overall, Non-oil, and Structural Fiscal Balances
Contents
WHY HAS INFLATION DECLINED IN SAUDI ARABIA?
A. Introduction
B. Inflation in Saudi Arabia
C. Estimating the Determinants of Inflation
D. Results
E. Conclusions
References
FIGURES
1. Recent Inflation Developments
2. Drivers of Inflation in Saudi Arabia
3. Historical Fit Between Actual and Model Predicted Inflation
TABLE
1. Vector Error Correction Estimates: Determinants of Inflation
APPENDICES
I. Literature Table
II. Measuring the Output Gap
III. Determinants of Core Inflation
APPENDIX TABLES
1. Various Methods Were Employed to Calculate Potential GDP
2. Vector Error Correction Estimates: Determinants of Core Inflation