People’s Republic of China Staff Report for the 2017 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex
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2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China

Abstract

2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China

Fund Relations

(As of June 29th, 2017)

Membership Status: Joined 12/27/45; Article VIII (December 1, 1996)

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None

Financial Arrangements:

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Projected Payments to Fund (SDR million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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Exchange Arrangements:

China’s de facto exchange rate regime has been classified as stabilized against the basket of currencies in the CFETS index since August 24, 2016. The previous classification was crawl-like. The de jure exchange rate arrangement is managed floating with a view to keeping the RMB exchange rate stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies to preserve the stability of the Chinese economy and financial markets. The floating band of the RMB’s trading prices is 2% against the U.S. dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market: on each business day, the trading prices of the RMB against the U.S. dollar in the market may fluctuate within a band of ±2% around the midrate released that day by China’s Foreign Exchange Trading System (CFETS). The People’s Bank of China (PBC) indicated that the RMB’s floating range would be changed in an orderly manner, based on the developments of the foreign exchange market and economic and financial situation. Within the trading band, banks may determine their RMB exchange rates to the U.S. dollar with their clients without any limit on the spread, based on market supply and demand (PBC No. 2014/188). On August 11, 2015, the PBC decided to further increase the flexibility of the RMB-to-USD exchange rate midrate quoting mechanism, thereby enhancing the market determination of RMB exchange rates, and giving market supply and demand an even greater role in exchange rate formation.

The CFETS publishes its exchange rate index (composed of 24 currencies since January 1, 2017, previously, 13 currencies), and other RMB indices based on the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) currency basket and the SDR currency basket.

China accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4 of the Fund’s Articles of Agreement on December 1, 1996. China maintains an exchange system free of multiple currency practices and restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions. However, China has notified measures to the Fund, pursuant to procedures under the Executive Board Decision 144 (52/51), which apply to measures imposed solely for national or international security reasons.

While exchange controls continue to apply to most capital transactions, the use of renminbi in international transactions has expanded over time. Effective October 1, 2016, the RMB was determined to be a freely usable currency and was included in the SDR basket as a fifth currency, along with the U.S. dollar, the euro, Japanese yen, and the British pound.

CFMs were more tightly enforced, including on overseas direct investment (ODI) in January 2017 with more stringent requirements on companies to explain to banks their ODI-related fund remittances, and on offshore RMB lending by domestic non-financial institutions in November 2016 with banks’ stricter examination requirements on outbound loans. CFMs were also tightened, including by placing the 100,000 yuan per year limit on overseas RMB withdrawal by China unionpay cards effective January 2016, besides original 10,000 yuan per day limitation.

Article IV Consultation:

China is on the standard 12-month consultation cycle. The 2016 Article IV mission was concluded on May 27, 2016 and the staff report was published on August 12, 2016.

Technical Assistance:

Technical assistance provided from 2001 through June 2017 is summarized in Annex V.

Resident Representative:

The resident representative office in Beijing was opened in October 1991. Mr. Alfred Schipke is the Senior Resident Representative and Mr. Waikei Raphael Lam is the Deputy Resident Representative.

World Bank-IMF Collaboration

(Draft as of June 21, 2017)

1. The IMF China Resident Representatives held discussions with the World Bank team in June 2017 to exchange views on key areas of reform to ensure sustainable medium-term growth in China, minimize risks, and improve the inclusiveness of growth. The teams discussed their agendas for 2017-2018. The last such meeting was held during June 2017 in Beijing.

2. The teams agreed the focus of reform in China should be on shifting growth to a more balanced and sustainable path, along the line of the 13th Five-Year Plan and Third-plenum Reform Blueprint. Reforms should aim at preventing further buildup of risks stemming from rapid credit growth, complex intra-financial sector claims, and quasi-fiscal spending, and move the economy to a more inclusive, environment-friendly, and sustainable growth path. Giving the market a more decisive role, eliminating distortions, and modernizing policy frameworks will result in a more efficient use of resources, faster productivity growth, and rising living standards across the income spectrum.

3. Based on this assessment, teams identified the following reform areas as macro-critical:

  • Financial sector reforms. Further progress in financial sector reform is central to containing risks and boosting growth by facilitating better allocation of resources. Widespread implicit guarantees distort the pricing of risk, resulting in misallocation of credit and inefficient investment. Intra-financial sector credits have become large and complex, posing risks to financial stability. Key measures in this area include hardening budget constraint, enhanced debt restructuring to facility the resolution of underperforming loans, as well as stepped-up supervision and regulation of the financial system. In particular, recent supervisory tightening on shadow banking sector should continue cautiously to phase out regulatory arbitrage opportunities. Given the rising vulnerabilities, there is also a need to upgrade the regulatory structure to ensure adequate supervisory cooperation and coordination.

  • Fiscal reforms. Off-budget spending, in infrastructure but also in other areas, undertaken by local government-owned entities have led to a significant buildup of debt. The new budget law aims to bring these projects on-budget and strengthen control over public financial management, but implementation would be key. The central government needs to provide consistent signals on the importance of budget reform implementation, which should moderate growth in public investment financed at the local level. Improving the fiscal framework is a priority for the medium term, including strengthening budget processes, data transparency, local government finances, and medium-term budget planning. Tax reforms should continue to modernize the current tax system and make it more progressive (e.g., relying more on direct taxes). Aligning central and local government finances—matching local government revenues to spending responsibilities—will be key.

  • Reform of the social security system. Further strengthening the pension and health insurance systems—including by improving adequacy and expanding coverage—would have macro-benefits such as reducing precautionary household savings, but would need to be done with a careful eye to fiscal sustainability. It is crucial to improve benefit portability within and across provinces and economic sectors. Reforms should be done in a way that ensures the sustainability of the social security system, including through parametric changes (such as increasing retirement age, indexation, and so on) and structural reforms to the pension system (such as introducing the NDC approach, deepening the alignment of civil service and PSU pension schemes with the urban worker scheme, upgrading the pooling level, developing the medium and long term financing strategy, including for financing legacy costs outside the pension system), and strengthening the budget processes and administration for social security funds. .

  • SOE reform. Reforms include advancing on debt restructuring given the central role of SOEs in corporate debt vulnerabilities and in overcapacity sectors. Hardening budget constraints would help properly price finance and other factor inputs, which could be facilitated by adequate dividend payments to the budget and phasing out the social functions of SOEs. Opening up the service sector to full and fair competition activities currently reserved to SOEs will also be critical for generating the productivity gains necessary to fuel growth.

  • Governance and regulatory reforms. This includes additional measures to align the coordination and incentives of governing and regulatory bodies toward empowering markets to support sustainable growth, including entry/exit of firms, competition policy, resolution of insolvencies, intellectual property rights (IPR), and adjustments in public sector cadre evaluation systems.

  • Green growth. Air pollution, water quality and supply, soil contamination, and issues such as desertification, and degradation of grasslands, and dependence on coal and energy intensive economic options have social, health, and economic effects. Underpricing of energy and inadequate consequences for pollution has worsened these effects while contributing to China’s dependence on industry. Raising these factor costs to capture the cost of externalities, such as introducing a carbon tax and investing in green development including in renewable energy will make growth more sustainable and inclusive. This will also require mobilization of private capital and utilize the capital markets to support green investments.

  • Infrastructure. Investment in infrastructure has been a key driver of the Chinese economy, particularly during the slowdown around the Global Financial Crisis. However, the rapid pace of investment has in some cases left communities behind, and in other cases has led to excessive investment in projects with relatively low social or financial returns. Filling in the gaps of investment in social projects will make growth more inclusive while improving the overall social and financial efficiency of infrastructure investment. Measures to improve the process of approving new infrastructure projects will ensure that investments are focused in areas of the highest social return.

4. The teams agreed to the following division of labor.

  • Financial sector reforms. The Bank and the Fund is jointly conducting the 2017 FSAP; assess financial sector risks and provide recommendations on the needed reforms. The Fund will also continue to provide technical assistance to the Chinese authorities as needed.

  • Fiscal reforms. The Bank will continue to work with the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to help in implementing key reforms in public finance in the context of an ongoing fiscal technical assistance investment project. The Fund will continue its technical cooperation on the fiscal framework and budgetary preparation, including strengthening the medium-term macro and fiscal framework, enhancing local government borrowing monitoring, and modernizing accounting and treasury management. The Fund will also continue to discuss the fiscal space in China and policy choices on the broader economy as well as implications for global spillovers.

  • Social Security System. The Bank will continue to work with the Chinese authorities on reforms to improve the equity, sustainability, and portability of the social security system. This includes helping provincial governments in developing more integrated social security information systems. The Bank will also work with MOF to provide technical support on the overall reform and the pooling and financing strategies, and optimize fiscal risk management associated with social security liabilities through policy dialogue and engagement. The Fund will look at issues related to the how different social insurance schemes (including pensions and health care) fit into the medium-term fiscal and macroeconomic policy framework. The Fund will also review the balance between benefits and financing from different revenue sources, including social contributions and other revenue. Both the Bank and the Fund will continue to encourage the authorities to undertake regular and robust actuarial modeling of social insurance liabilities.

  • Green growth. The Bank’s focus on climate change and renewable energy as well as pollution reduction and prevention in China will continue to emphasize cutting-edge green technologies, scale-up of energy conservation and investments in energy efficiency, green transport and green building policies (for heat and energy efficiency). Engagements with a climate change focus will extend to expansion of distribution of electricity from natural gas generation, analysis of carbon capture and storage potential, and development of green finance, including carbon markets. The Fund will continue to discuss options to capture the cost of externalities through the use of fiscal policy such as better calibration of excise and introducing a carbon tax. It is ready to provide assistance on shifting the pricing and taxation of energy, and discussing the growth and fiscal implications of such a shift.

  • New Drivers of Growth. The Bank is cooperating with Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council on a flagship report that focuses on identifying and nurturing new sources of growth to sustain China’s development into high income status. The focus is on policies and reforms to accelerate productivity growth by removing distortions, accelerating diffusion, and fostering discovery and innovation (the three ‘D’s). Separate thematic reports are being prepared in relevant areas, which will feed into a single integrated document.

5. Teams have the following requests for information from their counterparts:

  • The Fund team requests to be kept informed of progress in the above macroeconomic structural reform areas, as milestones are reached and at least on a semiannual basis.

  • The Bank team requests to be kept informed of the Fund’s assessments of macroeconomic policies and prospects in the context of the Article IV consultation and staff visits, and at least semiannually.

The following table lists the teams’ separate and joint work programs for June 2017 to June 2018.

China: Bank and Fund Planned Activities in Macro-Critical Structural Reform Areas

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Relations with the Asian Development Bank1

1. The Asian Development Bank’s (AsDB) partnership with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has grown in many ways since the PRC became a member of AsDB in March 1986. The PRC is AsDB’s second largest shareholder among regional members and the third largest overall, as well as an important middle-income country client. By the end of 2016, the PRC’s cumulative borrowing from AsDB reached $32 billion with 238 loans for public sector projects. Of the total public sector loans, 52.6 percent was allocated to the transport and ICT sector, followed by energy (15.1 percent), water and other municipal infrastructure services (12.8 percent), agriculture and natural resources (12.8 percent), industry and trade (2.4 percent), finance (1.8 percent), multisector (1.6 percent), education (0.9 percent) and health (0.2 percent). Over the past 28 years, AsDB has helped finance private sector projects in the PRC totaling $3.3 billion. This comprised direct Loan of $2.8 billion; (ii) equity investments of $404 million, and a partial credit guarantee facility of $107 million. AsDB also funds technical assistance for the PRC. By the end of 2016, AsDB had provided a total of $483.6 million for 831 technical assistance projects, consisting of $152.9 million for preparing projects and $330.7 million for policy advice and capacity development.

2. Overall, the PRC has demonstrated strong capabilities in implementing projects. The good performance shows the strong sense of project ownership among agencies involved in the design, implementation, and management of projects, as well as the rigorous screening process for development projects, particularly those proposed for external financing. Loan disbursement and contract award performance is good.

3. The PRC has demonstrated its strong partnership with AsDB by contributing to the Asian Development Fund, establishing the $20 million PRC Poverty Reduction and Regional Cooperation Fund (the PRC Fund), and replenishing first another $20 million and then another $50 million to the PRC Fund. The PRC Fund—the first fund established in AsDB by a developing member country—providing technical assistance projects to support subregional cooperation initiatives, particularly Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) and Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) programs.

4. The Asian Development Bank’s Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) 2016–2020 was endorsed by AsDB Board of Directors in February 2016. The CPS 2016–2020 is aligned with the priorities of the PRC’s 13th Five-Year Plan 2016–2020, the Midterm Review of AsDB’s long-term Strategy 2020, and AsDB’s approach to supporting upper middle-income countries. The CPS will support the government’s reform agenda by focusing on the following strategic priorities: managing climate change and the environment, promoting regional cooperation and integration, supporting inclusive economic growth focusing on the remaining poor, fostering knowledge cooperation, and supporting institutional and governance reform. AsDB’s sovereign and nonsovereign operations will support activities within these strategic priorities.

5. Projected public sector lending in 2016–2018 will total about $4.56 billion, of which 30 percent will support agriculture, natural resources, and rural development; 6 percent will support education; 8 percent will support energy; 5 percent will support health; 29 percent will support transport and 22 percent will support water and other urban infrastructure and services sectors. Over 90 percent of the projects are located in the western, central and north-eastern regions in line with the CPS’s priorities of promoting inclusive growth and environmentally sustainable growth.

6. AsDB’s technical assistance will complement the lending program to improve the sector policy environment, support governance and capacity development, and strengthen the knowledge base and innovative features of lending operations.

Statistical Issues

(As of June 26th, 2017)

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China: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of June 26, 2017)

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Any reserve assets that are pledged of otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market based and officially determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Only 12-month growth rates are reported (price indices are not available).

Data on financing (foreign, domestic bank and domestic nonbank financing) is not available.

The general government consists of the central (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Goods trade data are provided monthly. Services trade data are released with the current account statistics.

For real GDP, level data are available only on an annual basis (growth rates are available on a quarterly, cumulative basis).

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).

Interest rates change only infrequently; these changes are publicly announced.

Capacity Development and Technical Assistance

China: Summary of Capacity Development and Technical Assistance, 2011–17 1/

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The new Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) was formed from the merger of the former IMF Institute (INS) and Office of Technical Assistance Management (OTM) on May 1, 2012.

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Prepared by Asian Development Bank staff.

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