Abstract
2017 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement
Context: A Strategy for Investment Scaling Up and Improved Governance
1. Madagascar has a long history of weak economic growth amid recurrent political instability. Successive political crises and weak governance have held back revenue collection, public investment, social spending, external donor support, and private investment, especially FDI. As a result, growth has suffered—at best barely keeping up with rapid population growth—and social welfare indicators have deteriorated (Text Figure 1). Madagascar’s development has also suffered from its high vulnerability to natural disasters. Madagascar has become one of the poorest countries in the world, with over 80 percent of the population living on less than $1.90 a day.
Madagascar: Growth and Poverty
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Source: World Development Indicators, the World Bank.
Madagascar: Growth and Poverty
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Source: World Development Indicators, the World Bank.Madagascar: Growth and Poverty
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Source: World Development Indicators, the World Bank.2. The government aims to break the cycle of low growth and political instability by accelerating public investment and structural reforms under its 2014 National Development Plan (NDP). During the political crisis following the military coup (2009-13), tax collections declined from 12 percent of GDP in 2008 to 9 per cent in 2013, while donor support fell as low as 2 percent of GDP in 2012 (from 14 percent of GDP in 2006).1 To help finance scaling up investment and social spending, Madagascar’s development partners made pledges estimated at $6.4 billion (over 60 percent of GDP) at the donor conference in December 2016.
3. In the face of deteriorating governance indicators, the government has revived the fight against corruption. During the five-year crisis period, Madagascar’s governance indicators regressed, while other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) advanced (Text Figure 2). Under the National Strategy to Fight Corruption adopted in 2015, the government aims to reverse this adverse trend, starting with bringing the legal framework into compliance with international standards. At the same time, reforms are underway to boost fiscal transparency and controls.
Madagascar: Indices of Corruption and Good Governance
(Percentile)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Note: A corruption percentile of close to 90 indicates more perceived corruption than in close to 90 percent of the countries included in the survey.
Madagascar: Indices of Corruption and Good Governance
(Percentile)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Note: A corruption percentile of close to 90 indicates more perceived corruption than in close to 90 percent of the countries included in the survey.Madagascar: Indices of Corruption and Good Governance
(Percentile)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Note: A corruption percentile of close to 90 indicates more perceived corruption than in close to 90 percent of the countries included in the survey.Key Recommendations of the 2014 Article IV Consultation and Current Status
| Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|
| Increase fiscal space by broadening the tax base and improving the composition of public spending. | Tax revenue increased from 9.9 percent of GDP in 2014 to 10.9 percent of GDP in 2016 (of which 0.3 percent of GDP in one-off measures). Fuel subsidies were discontinued in 2016, while reforms launched at loss-making SOEs have yet to bear fruit. |
| Finalize the National Development Plan (NDP), undertake urgent and well-prioritized investment, and seek concessional donor financing. | The NDP has been finalized and substantial concessional financing secured at the donor conference, based on a prioritized investment plan. Capital expenditure grew from 3.9 percent of GDP in 2014 to 5.2 percent in 2016. |
| Recapitalize the central bank, enhance its independence, and strengthen its oversight mechanism. | The central bank was recapitalized by securitizing its claims on the central government. A new Central Bank Act strengthening independence was adopted in 2016. The central bank is reinforcing its audit oversight and control environment. |
| Increase international reserves. | Gross official reserves increased substantially, from $775 million (2.5 months import cover) at end-2014 to $1,121 (3.9 months import cover) at end-2016. |
| Improve banking supervision. | Based on the 2016 FSAP, work is progressing to reform banking supervision and give it more powers. |
| Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|
| Increase fiscal space by broadening the tax base and improving the composition of public spending. | Tax revenue increased from 9.9 percent of GDP in 2014 to 10.9 percent of GDP in 2016 (of which 0.3 percent of GDP in one-off measures). Fuel subsidies were discontinued in 2016, while reforms launched at loss-making SOEs have yet to bear fruit. |
| Finalize the National Development Plan (NDP), undertake urgent and well-prioritized investment, and seek concessional donor financing. | The NDP has been finalized and substantial concessional financing secured at the donor conference, based on a prioritized investment plan. Capital expenditure grew from 3.9 percent of GDP in 2014 to 5.2 percent in 2016. |
| Recapitalize the central bank, enhance its independence, and strengthen its oversight mechanism. | The central bank was recapitalized by securitizing its claims on the central government. A new Central Bank Act strengthening independence was adopted in 2016. The central bank is reinforcing its audit oversight and control environment. |
| Increase international reserves. | Gross official reserves increased substantially, from $775 million (2.5 months import cover) at end-2014 to $1,121 (3.9 months import cover) at end-2016. |
| Improve banking supervision. | Based on the 2016 FSAP, work is progressing to reform banking supervision and give it more powers. |
4. The authorities have made progress on all recommendations from the 2014 Article IV consultation (the first in 6 years), although most remain relevant. Reforms are advancing in all key areas (Box 1), albeit at different speeds. Nevertheless, most of the recommendations remain relevant given that many structural problems are deep-rooted and require sustained effort (although the National Development Plan and the Central Bank Act were successfully adopted).
Recent Economic Developments, Outlook, and Risks
5. The economic recovery following the political crisis gained speed in 2016, although it took longer than expected to emerge. Investment, the anticipated driver of the economy, remained subdued in 2015, and growth was estimated at only 3.1 percent. Public investment grew faster in 2016, which supported construction activity; together with increasing textile exports and accelerating activity in agroindustry, it helped boost growth to 4.2 percent. Inflation remained under control at 7.0 percent at end-2016 (Figures 1-4, Tables 1-8).
Madagascar: Real Sector Developments, 2006-17
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Madagascar: Real Sector Developments, 2006-17
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates.Madagascar: Real Sector Developments, 2006-17
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Madagascar: Fiscal Developments, 2006-17
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Madagascar: Fiscal Developments, 2006-17
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates.Madagascar: Fiscal Developments, 2006-17
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Madagascar: External Sector Developments, 2006-17
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Madagascar: External Sector Developments, 2006-17
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates.Madagascar: External Sector Developments, 2006-17
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Madagascar: Monetary Developments, 2015-17
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Madagascar: Monetary Developments, 2015-17
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates.Madagascar: Monetary Developments, 2015-17
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 223; 10.5089/9781484310656.002.A001
Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates.Madagascar: Selected Economic Indicators, 2015-22
Primary balance excl. foreign-financed investment. Commitment basis.
Madagascar: Selected Economic Indicators, 2015-22
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actuals | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | Projections | |||||||||
| (Percent change; unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||||||
| National account and prices | ||||||||||||||
| GDP at constant prices | 3.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | ||||
| GDP deflator | 7.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 | ||||
| Consumer prices (end of period) | 7.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.0 | ||||
| Money and credit | ||||||||||||||
| Reserve money | 9.6 | 16.0 | 25.4 | 12.7 | 14.0 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 13.0 | ||||
| Broad money (M3) | 14.6 | 17.9 | 19.9 | 12.7 | 15.0 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 16.2 | 16.7 | 14.9 | ||||
| (Growth in percent of beginning of period money stock (M3)) | ||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 6.9 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 5.0 | ||||
| Net domestic assets | 7.7 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 9.8 | ||||
| of which: Credit to the private sector | 8.2 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 7.2 | ||||
| (Percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||||
| Public finance | ||||||||||||||
| Total revenue (excluding grants) | 10.4 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 13.5 | ||||
| of which: Tax revenue | 10.1 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 13.2 | ||||
| Grants | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | ||||
| of which: budget grants | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Total expenditures | 15.1 | 16.2 | 16.0 | 18.3 | 20.2 | 20.0 | 20.1 | 18.8 | 18.9 | 19.0 | ||||
| Current expenditure | 11.7 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.9 | ||||
| Wages and salaries | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | ||||
| Interest payments | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Other | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | ||||
| Goods and Services | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | ||||
| Transfers and Subsidies | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | ||||
| Treasury operations (net) | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.1 | ||||
| Domestic financed | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | ||||
| Foreign financed | 2.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | ||||
| Overall balance (commitment basis ) | −3.3 | −3.2 | −1.3 | −4.4 | −5.1 | −4.7 | −4.5 | −3.8 | −3.5 | −3.3 | ||||
| Float (variation of accounts payable, + = increase) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Variation of domestic arrears (+ = increase) | −0.5 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Overall balance (cash basis) | −3.7 | −4.5 | −2.1 | −5.1 | −6.0 | −5.2 | −4.8 | −4.0 | −3.5 | −3.3 | ||||
| Primary balance1 | −1.3 | −0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | −0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | ||||
| Total financing | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | ||||
| Foreign borrowing (net) | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | ||||
| Domestic financing | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | ||||
| Prospective financing | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 0.0 | −1.6 | −1.4 | −2.2 | −2.6 | −2.9 | ||||
| of which: budget support needs | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ||||
| Savings and investment | ||||||||||||||
| Investment | 13.1 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 18.2 | 19.2 | 21.5 | 21.4 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 20.0 | ||||
| Gross national savings | 11.2 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 16.2 | 16.4 | 16.2 | 16.1 | 16.1 | ||||
| External sector | ||||||||||||||
| Exports of goods, f.o.b. | 21.0 | 21.5 | 21.6 | 20.8 | 22.3 | 21.5 | 22.2 | 23.8 | 24.5 | 25.0 | ||||
| Imports of goods, c.i.f. | 28.7 | 30.2 | 28.6 | 31.2 | 34.6 | 34.4 | 34.8 | 35.5 | 36.3 | 36.9 | ||||
| Current account balance (exc. grants) | −3.4 | −4.3 | −2.7 | −6.4 | −8.1 | −8.9 | −8.4 | −6.5 | −6.4 | −6.2 | ||||
| Current account balance (inc. grants) | −1.9 | −2.3 | 0.8 | −3.7 | −4.7 | −5.3 | −5.0 | −4.2 | −4.1 | −4.0 | ||||
| Public debt | 41.3 | 41.7 | 38.7 | 42.8 | 41.3 | 42.2 | 43.1 | 43.4 | 43.9 | 44.3 | ||||
| External | 28.4 | 30.4 | 27.0 | 32.6 | 29.6 | 31.9 | 33.9 | 34.8 | 35.4 | 35.8 | ||||
| Domestic | 12.9 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.5 | ||||
| (Units as indicated) | ||||||||||||||
| Gross official reserves (millions of SDRs) | 600 | 701 | 834 | 782 | 896 | 942 | 1,045 | 1,161 | 1,296 | 1,394 | ||||
| Months of imports of goods and services | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | ||||
| Real effective exchange rate | −0.5 | 4.0 | 0.3 | |||||||||||
| Terms of trade (percent change, deterioration -) | 1.3 | 6.6 | 23.2 | −4.6 | −5.1 | −3.2 | 2.2 | 0.3 | −1.8 | −2.3 | ||||
| Memorandum items | ||||||||||||||
| GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) | 402 | 391 | 401 | 405 | 412 | 424 | 444 | 464 | 485 | 503 | ||||
| Nominal GDP at market prices (billions of ariary) | 28,585 | 31,773 | 31,769 | 35,507 | 35,731 | 40,183 | 45,304 | 50,398 | 55,846 | 61,570 | ||||
Primary balance excl. foreign-financed investment. Commitment basis.
Madagascar: Selected Economic Indicators, 2015-22
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actuals | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | Projections | |||||||||
| (Percent change; unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||||||
| National account and prices | ||||||||||||||
| GDP at constant prices | 3.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | ||||
| GDP deflator | 7.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 | ||||
| Consumer prices (end of period) | 7.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.0 | ||||
| Money and credit | ||||||||||||||
| Reserve money | 9.6 | 16.0 | 25.4 | 12.7 | 14.0 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 13.0 | ||||
| Broad money (M3) | 14.6 | 17.9 | 19.9 | 12.7 | 15.0 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 16.2 | 16.7 | 14.9 | ||||
| (Growth in percent of beginning of period money stock (M3)) | ||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 6.9 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 5.0 | ||||
| Net domestic assets | 7.7 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 9.8 | ||||
| of which: Credit to the private sector | 8.2 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 7.2 | ||||
| (Percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||||
| Public finance | ||||||||||||||
| Total revenue (excluding grants) | 10.4 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 13.5 | ||||
| of which: Tax revenue | 10.1 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 13.2 | ||||
| Grants | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | ||||
| of which: budget grants | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Total expenditures | 15.1 | 16.2 | 16.0 | 18.3 | 20.2 | 20.0 | 20.1 | 18.8 | 18.9 | 19.0 | ||||
| Current expenditure | 11.7 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.9 | ||||
| Wages and salaries | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | ||||
| Interest payments | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Other | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | ||||
| Goods and Services | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | ||||
| Transfers and Subsidies | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | ||||
| Treasury operations (net) | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.1 | ||||
| Domestic financed | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | ||||
| Foreign financed | 2.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | ||||
| Overall balance (commitment basis ) | −3.3 | −3.2 | −1.3 | −4.4 | −5.1 | −4.7 | −4.5 | −3.8 | −3.5 | −3.3 | ||||
| Float (variation of accounts payable, + = increase) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Variation of domestic arrears (+ = increase) | −0.5 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Overall balance (cash basis) | −3.7 | −4.5 | −2.1 | −5.1 | −6.0 | −5.2 | −4.8 | −4.0 | −3.5 | −3.3 | ||||
| Primary balance1 | −1.3 | −0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | −0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | ||||
| Total financing | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | ||||
| Foreign borrowing (net) | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | ||||
| Domestic financing | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | ||||
| Prospective financing | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 0.0 | −1.6 | −1.4 | −2.2 | −2.6 | −2.9 | ||||
| of which: budget support needs | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ||||
| Savings and investment | ||||||||||||||
| Investment | 13.1 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 18.2 | 19.2 | 21.5 | 21.4 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 20.0 | ||||
| Gross national savings | 11.2 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 16.2 | 16.4 | 16.2 | 16.1 | 16.1 | ||||
| External sector | ||||||||||||||
| Exports of goods, f.o.b. | 21.0 | 21.5 | 21.6 | 20.8 | 22.3 | 21.5 | 22.2 | 23.8 | 24.5 | 25.0 | ||||
| Imports of goods, c.i.f. | 28.7 | 30.2 | 28.6 | 31.2 | 34.6 | 34.4 | 34.8 | 35.5 | 36.3 | 36.9 | ||||
| Current account balance (exc. grants) | −3.4 | −4.3 | −2.7 | −6.4 | −8.1 | −8.9 | −8.4 | −6.5 | −6.4 | −6.2 | ||||
| Current account balance (inc. grants) | −1.9 | −2.3 | 0.8 | −3.7 | −4.7 | −5.3 | −5.0 | −4.2 | −4.1 | −4.0 | ||||
| Public debt | 41.3 | 41.7 | 38.7 | 42.8 | 41.3 | 42.2 | 43.1 | 43.4 | 43.9 | 44.3 | ||||
| External | 28.4 | 30.4 | 27.0 | 32.6 | 29.6 | 31.9 | 33.9 | 34.8 | 35.4 | 35.8 | ||||
| Domestic | 12.9 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.5 | ||||
| (Units as indicated) | ||||||||||||||
| Gross official reserves (millions of SDRs) | 600 | 701 | 834 | 782 | 896 | 942 | 1,045 | 1,161 | 1,296 | 1,394 | ||||
| Months of imports of goods and services | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | ||||
| Real effective exchange rate | −0.5 | 4.0 | 0.3 | |||||||||||
| Terms of trade (percent change, deterioration -) | 1.3 | 6.6 | 23.2 | −4.6 | −5.1 | −3.2 | 2.2 | 0.3 | −1.8 | −2.3 | ||||
| Memorandum items | ||||||||||||||
| GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) | 402 | 391 | 401 | 405 | 412 | 424 | 444 | 464 | 485 | 503 | ||||
| Nominal GDP at market prices (billions of ariary) | 28,585 | 31,773 | 31,769 | 35,507 | 35,731 | 40,183 | 45,304 | 50,398 | 55,846 | 61,570 | ||||
Primary balance excl. foreign-financed investment. Commitment basis.
Madagascar: National Accounts, 2015-22
Madagascar: National Accounts, 2015-22
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actuals | EBS 16/68 | Prel. Est. | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | Projections | |||||||
| (Percent change) | ||||||||||||
| Real supply side growth | ||||||||||||
| Primary sector | −0.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | ||
| Agriculture | −2.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 3.5 | −0.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | ||
| Cattle and fishing | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||
| Forestry | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| Secondary sector | 7.3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | ||
| Food and drink | 3.8 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | ||
| Export processing zone | −0.3 | 9.4 | 24.7 | 10.0 | 15.6 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | ||
| Energy | 4.1 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | ||
| Extractive industry | 19.5 | 5.0 | −1.6 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | ||
| Other | 1.2 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | ||
| Tertiary sector | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.6 | ||
| Transportation | 2.0 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.0 | ||
| Services | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | ||
| Trade | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Public administration | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | ||
| Public works/construction | 9.4 | 10.0 | 18.6 | 10.0 | 15.3 | 16.5 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 7.6 | ||
| Indirect taxes | 5.7 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Real GDP at market prices | 3.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | ||
| Nominal demand side composition | (Percent of GDP) | |||||||||||
| Resource balance | −3.5 | −3.9 | −2.1 | −5.5 | −7.4 | −8.1 | −7.6 | −6.4 | −6.2 | −6.1 | ||
| Imports of goods and nonfactor services | 35.5 | 36.8 | 35.6 | 37.7 | 40.3 | 40.6 | 40.7 | 41.0 | 41.5 | 41.8 | ||
| Exports of goods and nonfactor services | 32.1 | 32.9 | 33.5 | 32.2 | 32.9 | 32.4 | 33.1 | 34.6 | 35.3 | 35.7 | ||
| Current account balance (including grants) = (S-I) | −1.9 | −2.3 | 0.8 | −3.7 | −4.6 | −5.3 | −5.0 | −4.2 | −4.1 | −4.0 | ||
| Consumption | 90.4 | 88.5 | 86.8 | 87.3 | 88.2 | 86.6 | 86.2 | 86.0 | 86.0 | 86.1 | ||
| Government | 10.8 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 9.0 | ||
| Nongovernment | 79.6 | 78.5 | 76.9 | 78.0 | 77.2 | 77.8 | 77.7 | 77.5 | 77.3 | 77.1 | ||
| Investment (I) | 13.1 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 18.2 | 19.2 | 21.5 | 21.4 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 20.0 | ||
| Government | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.1 | ||
| Nongovernment | 9.6 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | ||
| Of which: foreign direct investment | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | ||
| National savings (S) | 11.2 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 16.2 | 16.4 | 16.2 | 16.1 | 16.1 | ||
| Government | 0.2 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | ||
| Nongovernment | 11.0 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.3 | ||
| Memoranda items: | ||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (at market prices) | 28,585 | 31,773 | 31,769 | 35,507 | 35,731 | 40,183 | 45,304 | 50,398 | 55,846 | 61,570 | ||
| Net factor income | −3.9 | −4.0 | −4.1 | −4.0 | −4.0 | −4.0 | −4.0 | −3.9 | −4.0 | −3.9 | ||
| Transfers | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | ||
| Nominal GNP | 28,586 | 31,775 | 31,772 | 35,509 | 35,734 | 40,186 | 45,306 | 50,400 | 55,848 | 61,572 | ||
Madagascar: National Accounts, 2015-22
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actuals | EBS 16/68 | Prel. Est. | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | Projections | |||||||
| (Percent change) | ||||||||||||
| Real supply side growth | ||||||||||||
| Primary sector | −0.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | ||
| Agriculture | −2.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 3.5 | −0.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | ||
| Cattle and fishing | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||
| Forestry | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| Secondary sector | 7.3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | ||
| Food and drink | 3.8 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | ||
| Export processing zone | −0.3 | 9.4 | 24.7 | 10.0 | 15.6 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | ||
| Energy | 4.1 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | ||
| Extractive industry | 19.5 | 5.0 | −1.6 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | ||
| Other | 1.2 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | ||
| Tertiary sector | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.6 | ||
| Transportation | 2.0 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.0 | ||
| Services | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | ||
| Trade | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Public administration | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | ||
| Public works/construction | 9.4 | 10.0 | 18.6 | 10.0 | 15.3 | 16.5 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 7.6 | ||
| Indirect taxes | 5.7 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Real GDP at market prices | 3.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | ||
| Nominal demand side composition | (Percent of GDP) | |||||||||||
| Resource balance | −3.5 | −3.9 | −2.1 | −5.5 | −7.4 | −8.1 | −7.6 | −6.4 | −6.2 | −6.1 | ||
| Imports of goods and nonfactor services | 35.5 | 36.8 | 35.6 | 37.7 | 40.3 | 40.6 | 40.7 | 41.0 | 41.5 | 41.8 | ||
| Exports of goods and nonfactor services | 32.1 | 32.9 | 33.5 | 32.2 | 32.9 | 32.4 | 33.1 | 34.6 | 35.3 | 35.7 | ||
| Current account balance (including grants) = (S-I) | −1.9 | −2.3 | 0.8 | −3.7 | −4.6 | −5.3 | −5.0 | −4.2 | −4.1 | −4.0 | ||
| Consumption | 90.4 | 88.5 | 86.8 | 87.3 | 88.2 | 86.6 | 86.2 | 86.0 | 86.0 | 86.1 | ||
| Government | 10.8 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 9.0 | ||
| Nongovernment | 79.6 | 78.5 | 76.9 | 78.0 | 77.2 | 77.8 | 77.7 | 77.5 | 77.3 | 77.1 | ||
| Investment (I) | 13.1 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 18.2 | 19.2 | 21.5 | 21.4 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 20.0 | ||
| Government | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.1 | ||
| Nongovernment | 9.6 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | ||
| Of which: foreign direct investment | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | ||
| National savings (S) | 11.2 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 16.2 | 16.4 | 16.2 | 16.1 | 16.1 | ||
| Government | 0.2 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | ||
| Nongovernment | 11.0 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.3 | ||
| Memoranda items: | ||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (at market prices) | 28,585 | 31,773 | 31,769 | 35,507 | 35,731 | 40,183 | 45,304 | 50,398 | 55,846 | 61,570 | ||
| Net factor income | −3.9 | −4.0 | −4.1 | −4.0 | −4.0 | −4.0 | −4.0 | −3.9 | −4.0 | −3.9 | ||
| Transfers | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | ||
| Nominal GNP | 28,586 | 31,775 | 31,772 | 35,509 | 35,734 | 40,186 | 45,306 | 50,400 | 55,848 | 61,572 | ||
Madagascar: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2015-22
(Billions of Ariary)
Estimates of domestic taxes and other treasury operations net include an amount of MGA 90bn (0.3 percent of GDP) in 2016 and MGA 72 bn (0.2 procent of GDP) in 2017 corresponding to tax arrears of Air Madagascar used for its recapitalization.
Data for overall balance in 2015 includes an amount of MGA 340bn (1.2 percent of GDP) corresponding to recapitalization and interest rescheduling operations with the central bank.
Commitment basis.
A negative value indicates financing that has not yet been identified.
Madagascar: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2015-22
(Billions of Ariary)
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec | Dec | March | June | Sep | Dec | March | June | Dec | Dec | Dec | Dec | Dec | ||||||||||
| Estimations | EBS 16/68 | Prel. Est. | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | Proj. | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | Projections | Projections | |||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 3,381 | 4,135 | 4,664 | 907 | 1,051 | 1,985 | 2,252 | 3,772 | 4,918 | 5,398 | 1,191 | 2,691 | 6,168 | 7,051 | 7,554 | 8,577 | 9,654 | |||||
| Total revenue | 2,959 | 3,499 | 3,573 | 820 | 937 | 1,837 | 1,942 | 2,951 | 3,974 | 4,158 | 1,010 | 2,184 | 4,727 | 5,535 | 6,389 | 7,309 | 8,288 | |||||
| Tax revenue1 | 2,878 | 3,431 | 3,471 | 809 | 917 | 1,801 | 1,906 | 2,885 | 3,898 | 4,081 | 988 | 2,144 | 4,641 | 5,438 | 6,281 | 7,189 | 8,156 | |||||
| Domestic taxes | 1,420 | 806 | 1,905 | 191 | 452 | 439 | 996 | 1,471 | 2,000 | 2,129 | 546 | 1,192 | 2,469 | 3,069 | 3,682 | 4,364 | 5,107 | |||||
| Taxes on international trade and transactions | 1,458 | 1,669 | 1,664 | 384 | 465 | 826 | 910 | 1,414 | 1,898 | 2,001 | 441 | 951 | 2,171 | 2,359 | 2,579 | 2,796 | 3,010 | |||||
| Non-tax revenue | 81 | 68 | 102 | 11 | 20 | 36 | 36 | 66 | 77 | 77 | 22 | 40 | 86 | 97 | 108 | 120 | 132 | |||||
| Grants | 422 | 636 | 1,091 | 87 | 114 | 148 | 310 | 820 | 944 | 1,240 | 181 | 506 | 1,441 | 1,515 | 1,165 | 1,268 | 1,365 | |||||
| Current grants | 40 | 0 | 226 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 43 | 329 | 0 | 143 | 342 | 227 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Capital grants | 382 | 636 | 864 | 87 | 114 | 148 | 310 | 630 | 901 | 911 | 181 | 364 | 1,099 | 1,288 | 1,165 | 1,268 | 1,365 | |||||
| Total expenditure and lending minus repayments | 4,328 | 5,162 | 5,088 | 1,031 | 1,359 | 2,467 | 3,264 | 5,193 | 6,494 | 7,233 | 1,476 | 3,647 | 8,050 | 9,093 | 9,476 | 10,552 | 11,707 | |||||
| of which: Social priority spending | 193 | 235 | 259 | 60 | 62 | 130 | 130 | 174 | … | 298 | 84 | 175 | 401 | 542 | 713 | 847 | 932 | |||||
| Current expenditure | 3,331 | 3,481 | 3,439 | 669 | 917 | 1,633 | 1,944 | 2,994 | 3,647 | 4,272 | 801 | 1,882 | 3,940 | 4,317 | 4,754 | 5,365 | 6,126 | |||||
| Wages and salaries | 1,566 | 1,809 | 1,789 | 421 | 474 | 1,006 | 976 | 1,478 | 1,972 | 1,977 | 516 | 1,061 | 2,149 | 2,333 | 2,535 | 2,860 | 3,325 | |||||
| Interest payments | 230 | 290 | 278 | 62 | 53 | 145 | 130 | 194 | 334 | 339 | 60 | 161 | 400 | 462 | 502 | 555 | 605 | |||||
| Foreign | 57 | 76 | 65 | 20 | 19 | 60 | 46 | 61 | 125 | 107 | 22 | 69 | 143 | 180 | 216 | 248 | 281 | |||||
| Domestic | 173 | 214 | 213 | 42 | 34 | 84 | 83 | 133 | 209 | 232 | 38 | 92 | 257 | 282 | 286 | 307 | 324 | |||||
| Other | 1,122 | 1,217 | 1,185 | 157 | 350 | 472 | 753 | 1,231 | 1,264 | 1,750 | 213 | 641 | 1,316 | 1,437 | 1,621 | 1,837 | 2,069 | |||||
| Goods and services | 157 | 210 | 189 | 40 | 52 | 130 | 140 | 214 | 301 | 313 | 73 | 199 | 446 | 536 | 658 | 751 | 916 | |||||
| Transfers and subsidies | 966 | 1,007 | 996 | 116 | 298 | 342 | 613 | 1,017 | 964 | 1,437 | 139 | 441 | 871 | 901 | 963 | 1,086 | 1,153 | |||||
| of which: disaster relief | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | 4 | 8 | … | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| of which: Air Madagascar | 28 | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | 53 | 53 | … | 301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| of which: JIRAMA | 265 | … | 281 | … | 117 | … | 200 | 353 | … | 450 | 50 | 100 | 200 | 150 | 100 | 50 | 0 | |||||
| Treasury operations (net)1 | 412 | 166 | 187 | 30 | 40 | 10 | 85 | 91 | 76 | 206 | 12 | 19 | 75 | 85 | 96 | 113 | 127 | |||||
| Capital expenditure | 997 | 1,680 | 1,650 | 362 | 442 | 835 | 1,321 | 2,200 | 2,847 | 2,961 | 675 | 1,764 | 4,109 | 4,776 | 4,721 | 5,187 | 5,581 | |||||
| Domestic financed | 275 | 492 | 394 | 33 | 37 | 200 | 403 | 635 | 675 | 807 | 46 | 501 | 1,002 | 1,412 | 1,697 | 1,955 | 2,217 | |||||
| Disaster relief | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | 60 | 120 | … | 120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Foreign financed | 722 | 1,189 | 1,256 | 329 | 405 | 634 | 917 | 1,564 | 2,173 | 2,155 | 629 | 1,263 | 3,107 | 3,364 | 3,024 | 3,232 | 3,364 | |||||
| Identified financing | 2,155 | 1,189 | 1,256 | … | 405 | … | 917 | 1,564 | 2,173 | 2,155 | 629 | 1,263 | 2,562 | 2,866 | 2,092 | 1,836 | 1,640 | |||||
| Unidentified financing | … | 0 | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 544 | 498 | 932 | 1,396 | 1,724 | |||||
| Overall balance (commitment basis )2 | −947 | −1,026 | −425 | −124 | −308 | −483 | −1,012 | −1,422 | −1,576 | −1,835 | −285 | −956 | −1,882 | −2,042 | −1,922 | −1,975 | −2,053 | |||||
| Float (variation of accounts payable, + = increase) | 42 | 0 | 163 | −99 | −75 | −110 | 38 | 79 | 0 | −71 | 82 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Variation of domestic arrears (+ = increase) | −149 | −389 | −390 | −98 | −147 | −120 | −163 | −168 | −235 | −235 | −134 | −148 | −214 | −113 | −94 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Overall balance (including grants, cash basis)2 | −1,053 | −1,415 | −652 | −322 | −531 | −713 | −1,138 | −1,510 | −1,811 | −2,142 | −337 | −1,045 | −2,095 | −2,155 | −2,015 | −1,975 | −2,053 | |||||
| Primary balance excl. foreign-financed investment3 | −377 | −184 | 245 | 180 | 35 | 148 | −275 | −294 | 30 | −253 | 223 | 105 | 526 | 496 | 439 | 544 | 551 | |||||
| Total financing | 1,053 | 1,415 | 651 | 322 | 530 | 713 | 1,138 | 1,510 | 1,659 | 2,142 | 337 | 1,045 | 1,977 | 2,012 | 1,821 | 1,911 | 1,965 | |||||
| Foreign borrowing (residency principle) | 618 | 915 | 222 | 193 | 256 | 453 | 711 | 986 | 1,261 | 1,426 | 391 | 778 | 1,808 | 1,895 | 1,478 | 1,525 | 1,472 | |||||
| External borrowing, Gross | 733 | 1,142 | 445 | 242 | 352 | 571 | 849 | 1,175 | 1,511 | 1,719 | 448 | 900 | 2,057 | 2,127 | 1,859 | 1,964 | 1,999 | |||||
| Budget support loans | 394 | 589 | 53 | 0 | 61 | 85 | 242 | 242 | 239 | 475 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Project loans | 340 | 553 | 392 | 242 | 291 | 486 | 608 | 934 | 1,271 | 1,244 | 448 | 900 | 2,007 | 2,076 | 1,859 | 1,964 | 1,999 | |||||
| Amortization on a due basis (-) | −115 | −227 | −223 | −49 | −96 | −118 | −138 | −189 | −250 | −293 | −57 | −121 | −250 | −232 | −380 | −439 | −527 | |||||
| Domestic borrowing (residency principle) | 568 | 500 | 429 | 129 | 274 | 261 | 427 | 524 | 399 | 715 | −54 | 267 | 169 | 117 | 342 | 385 | 493 | |||||
| Monetary sector | 470 | 375 | 226 | 34 | 137 | 138 | 290 | 407 | 249 | 490 | −133 | 187 | 80 | 68 | 302 | 335 | 431 | |||||
| of which: Air Madagascar | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | 53 | 53 | … | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Non-monetary sector | 98 | 125 | 274 | 95 | 137 | 123 | 137 | 117 | 150 | 225 | 79 | 80 | 89 | 49 | 40 | 50 | 62 | |||||
| of which: Air Madagascar | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | 0 | … | 63 | 0 | 0 | −31 | −31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Treasury correspondent accounts (net) | −135 | 0 | −70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Excess financing4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | 0 | −152 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −663 | −642 | −1,127 | −1,461 | −1,812 | |||||
| of which: budget support needs | 0 | 0 | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −118 | −143 | −194 | −64 | −88 | |||||
| of which: Air Madagascar | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | 0 | … | 0 | 0 | 0 | −31 | −31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
Estimates of domestic taxes and other treasury operations net include an amount of MGA 90bn (0.3 percent of GDP) in 2016 and MGA 72 bn (0.2 procent of GDP) in 2017 corresponding to tax arrears of Air Madagascar used for its recapitalization.
Data for overall balance in 2015 includes an amount of MGA 340bn (1.2 percent of GDP) corresponding to recapitalization and interest rescheduling operations with the central bank.
Commitment basis.
A negative value indicates financing that has not yet been identified.
Madagascar: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2015-22
(Billions of Ariary)
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec | Dec | March | June | Sep | Dec | March | June | Dec | Dec | Dec | Dec | Dec | ||||||||||
| Estimations | EBS 16/68 | Prel. Est. | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | Proj. | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | Projections | Projections | |||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 3,381 | 4,135 | 4,664 | 907 | 1,051 | 1,985 | 2,252 | 3,772 | 4,918 | 5,398 | 1,191 | 2,691 | 6,168 | 7,051 | 7,554 | 8,577 | 9,654 | |||||
| Total revenue | 2,959 | 3,499 | 3,573 | 820 | 937 | 1,837 | 1,942 | 2,951 | 3,974 | 4,158 | 1,010 | 2,184 | 4,727 | 5,535 | 6,389 | 7,309 | 8,288 | |||||
| Tax revenue1 | 2,878 | 3,431 | 3,471 | 809 | 917 | 1,801 | 1,906 | 2,885 | 3,898 | 4,081 | 988 | 2,144 | 4,641 | 5,438 | 6,281 | 7,189 | 8,156 | |||||
| Domestic taxes | 1,420 | 806 | 1,905 | 191 | 452 | 439 | 996 | 1,471 | 2,000 | 2,129 | 546 | 1,192 | 2,469 | 3,069 | 3,682 | 4,364 | 5,107 | |||||
| Taxes on international trade and transactions | 1,458 | 1,669 | 1,664 | 384 | 465 | 826 | 910 | 1,414 | 1,898 | 2,001 | 441 | 951 | 2,171 | 2,359 | 2,579 | 2,796 | 3,010 | |||||
| Non-tax revenue | 81 | 68 | 102 | 11 | 20 | 36 | 36 | 66 | 77 | 77 | 22 | 40 | 86 | 97 | 108 | 120 | 132 | |||||
| Grants | 422 | 636 | 1,091 | 87 | 114 | 148 | 310 | 820 | 944 | 1,240 | 181 | 506 | 1,441 | 1,515 | 1,165 | 1,268 | 1,365 | |||||
| Current grants | 40 | 0 | 226 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 43 | 329 | 0 | 143 | 342 | 227 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Capital grants | 382 | 636 | 864 | 87 | 114 | 148 | 310 | 630 | 901 | 911 | 181 | 364 | 1,099 | 1,288 | 1,165 | 1,268 | 1,365 | |||||
| Total expenditure and lending minus repayments | 4,328 | 5,162 | 5,088 | 1,031 | 1,359 | 2,467 | 3,264 | 5,193 | 6,494 | 7,233 | 1,476 | 3,647 | 8,050 | 9,093 | 9,476 | 10,552 | 11,707 | |||||
| of which: Social priority spending | 193 | 235 | 259 | 60 | 62 | 130 | 130 | 174 | … | 298 | 84 | 175 | 401 | 542 | 713 | 847 | 932 | |||||
| Current expenditure | 3,331 | 3,481 | 3,439 | 669 | 917 | 1,633 | 1,944 | 2,994 | 3,647 | 4,272 | 801 | 1,882 | 3,940 | 4,317 | 4,754 | 5,365 | 6,126 | |||||
| Wages and salaries | 1,566 | 1,809 | 1,789 | 421 | 474 | 1,006 | 976 | 1,478 | 1,972 | 1,977 | 516 | 1,061 | 2,149 | 2,333 | 2,535 | 2,860 | 3,325 | |||||
| Interest payments | 230 | 290 | 278 | 62 | 53 | 145 | 130 | 194 | 334 | 339 | 60 | 161 | 400 | 462 | 502 | 555 | 605 | |||||
| Foreign | 57 | 76 | 65 | 20 | 19 | 60 | 46 | 61 | 125 | 107 | 22 | 69 | 143 | 180 | 216 | 248 | 281 | |||||
| Domestic | 173 | 214 | 213 | 42 | 34 | 84 | 83 | 133 | 209 | 232 | 38 | 92 | 257 | 282 | 286 | 307 | 324 | |||||
| Other | 1,122 | 1,217 | 1,185 | 157 | 350 | 472 | 753 | 1,231 | 1,264 | 1,750 | 213 | 641 | 1,316 | 1,437 | 1,621 | 1,837 | 2,069 | |||||
| Goods and services | 157 | 210 | 189 | 40 | 52 | 130 | 140 | 214 | 301 | 313 | 73 | 199 | 446 | 536 | 658 | 751 | 916 | |||||
| Transfers and subsidies | 966 | 1,007 | 996 | 116 | 298 | 342 | 613 | 1,017 | 964 | 1,437 | 139 | 441 | 871 | 901 | 963 | 1,086 | 1,153 | |||||
| of which: disaster relief | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | 4 | 8 | … | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| of which: Air Madagascar | 28 | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | 53 | 53 | … | 301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| of which: JIRAMA | 265 | … | 281 | … | 117 | … | 200 | 353 | … | 450 | 50 | 100 | 200 | 150 | 100 | 50 | 0 | |||||
| Treasury operations (net)1 | 412 | 166 | 187 | 30 | 40 | 10 | 85 | 91 | 76 | 206 | 12 | 19 | 75 | 85 | 96 | 113 | 127 | |||||
| Capital expenditure | 997 | 1,680 | 1,650 | 362 | 442 | 835 | 1,321 | 2,200 | 2,847 | 2,961 | 675 | 1,764 | 4,109 | 4,776 | 4,721 | 5,187 | 5,581 | |||||
| Domestic financed | 275 | 492 | 394 | 33 | 37 | 200 | 403 | 635 | 675 | 807 | 46 | 501 | 1,002 | 1,412 | 1,697 | 1,955 | 2,217 | |||||
| Disaster relief | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | 60 | 120 | … | 120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Foreign financed | 722 | 1,189 | 1,256 | 329 | 405 | 634 | 917 | 1,564 | 2,173 | 2,155 | 629 | 1,263 | 3,107 | 3,364 | 3,024 | 3,232 | 3,364 | |||||
| Identified financing | 2,155 | 1,189 | 1,256 | … | 405 | … | 917 | 1,564 | 2,173 | 2,155 | 629 | 1,263 | 2,562 | 2,866 | 2,092 | 1,836 | 1,640 | |||||
| Unidentified financing | … | 0 | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 544 | 498 | 932 | 1,396 | 1,724 | |||||
| Overall balance (commitment basis )2 | −947 | −1,026 | −425 | −124 | −308 | −483 | −1,012 | −1,422 | −1,576 | −1,835 | −285 | −956 | −1,882 | −2,042 | −1,922 | −1,975 | −2,053 | |||||
| Float (variation of accounts payable, + = increase) | 42 | 0 | 163 | −99 | −75 | −110 | 38 | 79 | 0 | −71 | 82 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Variation of domestic arrears (+ = increase) | −149 | −389 | −390 | −98 | −147 | −120 | −163 | −168 | −235 | −235 | −134 | −148 | −214 | −113 | −94 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Overall balance (including grants, cash basis)2 | −1,053 | −1,415 | −652 | −322 | −531 | −713 | −1,138 | −1,510 | −1,811 | −2,142 | −337 | −1,045 | −2,095 | −2,155 | −2,015 | −1,975 | −2,053 | |||||
| Primary balance excl. foreign-financed investment3 | −377 | −184 | 245 | 180 | 35 | 148 | −275 | −294 | 30 | −253 | 223 | 105 | 526 | 496 | 439 | 544 | 551 | |||||
| Total financing | 1,053 | 1,415 | 651 | 322 | 530 | 713 | 1,138 | 1,510 | 1,659 | 2,142 | 337 | 1,045 | 1,977 | 2,012 | 1,821 | 1,911 | 1,965 | |||||
| Foreign borrowing (residency principle) | 618 | 915 | 222 | 193 | 256 | 453 | 711 | 986 | 1,261 | 1,426 | 391 | 778 | 1,808 | 1,895 | 1,478 | 1,525 | 1,472 | |||||
| External borrowing, Gross | 733 | 1,142 | 445 | 242 | 352 | 571 | 849 | 1,175 | 1,511 | 1,719 | 448 | 900 | 2,057 | 2,127 | 1,859 | 1,964 | 1,999 | |||||
| Budget support loans | 394 | 589 | 53 | 0 | 61 | 85 | 242 | 242 | 239 | 475 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Project loans | 340 | 553 | 392 | 242 | 291 | 486 | 608 | 934 | 1,271 | 1,244 | 448 | 900 | 2,007 | 2,076 | 1,859 | 1,964 | 1,999 | |||||
| Amortization on a due basis (-) | −115 | −227 | −223 | −49 | −96 | −118 | −138 | −189 | −250 | −293 | −57 | −121 | −250 | −232 | −380 | −439 | −527 | |||||
| Domestic borrowing (residency principle) | 568 | 500 | 429 | 129 | 274 | 261 | 427 | 524 | 399 | 715 | −54 | 267 | 169 | 117 | 342 | 385 | 493 | |||||
| Monetary sector | 470 | 375 | 226 | 34 | 137 | 138 | 290 | 407 | 249 | 490 | −133 | 187 | 80 | 68 | 302 | 335 | 431 | |||||
| of which: Air Madagascar | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | 53 | 53 | … | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Non-monetary sector | 98 | 125 | 274 | 95 | 137 | 123 | 137 | 117 | 150 | 225 | 79 | 80 | 89 | 49 | 40 | 50 | 62 | |||||
| of which: Air Madagascar | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | 0 | … | 63 | 0 | 0 | −31 | −31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Treasury correspondent accounts (net) | −135 | 0 | −70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Excess financing4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | 0 | −152 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −663 | −642 | −1,127 | −1,461 | −1,812 | |||||
| of which: budget support needs | 0 | 0 | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −118 | −143 | −194 | −64 | −88 | |||||
| of which: Air Madagascar | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | 0 | 0 | … | 0 | 0 | 0 | −31 | −31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
Estimates of domestic taxes and other treasury operations net include an amount of MGA 90bn (0.3 percent of GDP) in 2016 and MGA 72 bn (0.2 procent of GDP) in 2017 corresponding to tax arrears of Air Madagascar used for its recapitalization.
Data for overall balance in 2015 includes an amount of MGA 340bn (1.2 percent of GDP) corresponding to recapitalization and interest rescheduling operations with the central bank.
Commitment basis.
A negative value indicates financing that has not yet been identified.
Madagascar: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2015-22
(Percent of GDP)
Projections for domestic taxes and other treasury operations net include an amount of MGA 90bn (0.3 percent of GDP) in 2016 and MGA 72 bn (0.2 procent of GDP) in 2017 corresponding to tax arrears of Air Madagascar used for its recapitalization.
Data for overall balance in 2015 includes an amount of MGA 340bn (1.2 percent of GDP) corresponding to recapitalization and interest rescheduling operations with the central bank.
Commitment basis.
A negative value indicates financing that has not been identified
Madagascar: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2015-22
(Percent of GDP)
| 2015 | 20161 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actuals | EBS 16/68 | Prel. Est. | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | Projections | |||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 11.8 | 13.0 | 14.7 | 13.9 | 15.1 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 15.0 | 15.4 | 15.7 | ||||
| Total revenue | 10.4 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 13.5 | ||||
| Tax revenue1 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 13.2 | ||||
| Domestic taxes | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 8.3 | ||||
| Taxes on international trade and transactions | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | ||||
| Non-tax revenue | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Grants | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | ||||
| Current grants | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Capital grants | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | ||||
| Total expenditure and lending minus repayments | 15.1 | 16.2 | 16.0 | 18.3 | 20.2 | 20.0 | 20.1 | 18.8 | 18.9 | 19.0 | ||||
| of which: Social priority spending | 0.7 | … | 0.8 | … | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | ||||
| Current expenditure | 11.7 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.9 | ||||
| Wages and salaries | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | ||||
| Interest payments | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Foreign | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | ||||
| Domestic | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||
| Other | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | ||||
| Goods and services | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | ||||
| Transfers and Subsidies | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | ||||
| of which: disaster relief | 0.0 | … | 0.0 | … | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| of which: Air Madagascar | 0.1 | … | 0.0 | … | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| of which: JIRAMA | 0.9 | … | 0.9 | … | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Treasury operations (net)1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.1 | ||||
| Domestic financed | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | ||||
| Disaster relief | 0.0 | … | 0.0 | … | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Foreign financed | 2.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | ||||
| Identified financing | 7.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.7 | ||||
| Unidentified financing | … | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.8 | ||||
| Overall balance (commitment basis)2 | −3.3 | −3.2 | −1.3 | −4.4 | −5.1 | −4.7 | −4.5 | −3.8 | −3.5 | −3.3 | ||||
| Float (variation of accounts payable, + = increase) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Variation of domestic arrears (+ = increase) | −0.5 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Overall balance (including grants, cash basis)2 | −3.7 | −4.5 | −2.1 | −5.1 | −6.0 | −5.2 | −4.8 | −4.0 | −3.5 | −3.3 | ||||
| Primary balance excl. foreign-financed investment3 | −1.3 | −0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | −0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | ||||
| Total financing | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | ||||
| Foreign borrowing (residency principle) | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | ||||
| External borrowing, gross | 2.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.2 | ||||
| Budget support loans | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Project loans | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.2 | ||||
| Amortization on a due basis (-) | −0.4 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.9 | ||||
| Domestic borrowing (residency principle) | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | ||||
| Monetary sector | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | ||||
| Non-monetary sector | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||||
| Treasury correspondent accounts (net) | −0.5 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Excess financing4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 0.0 | −1.6 | −1.4 | −2.2 | −2.6 | −2.9 | ||||
| of which: budget support needs | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ||||
| of which: Air Madagascar | … | … | … | … | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Projections for domestic taxes and other treasury operations net include an amount of MGA 90bn (0.3 percent of GDP) in 2016 and MGA 72 bn (0.2 procent of GDP) in 2017 corresponding to tax arrears of Air Madagascar used for its recapitalization.
Data for overall balance in 2015 includes an amount of MGA 340bn (1.2 percent of GDP) corresponding to recapitalization and interest rescheduling operations with the central bank.
Commitment basis.
A negative value indicates financing that has not been identified
Madagascar: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2015-22
(Percent of GDP)
| 2015 | 20161 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actuals | EBS 16/68 | Prel. Est. | EBS 16/68 | Proj. | Projections | |||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 11.8 | 13.0 | 14.7 | 13.9 | 15.1 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 15.0 | 15.4 | 15.7 | ||||
| Total revenue | 10.4 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 13.5 | ||||
| Tax revenue1 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 13.2 | ||||
| Domestic taxes | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 8.3 | ||||
| Taxes on international trade and transactions | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | ||||
| Non-tax revenue | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Grants | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | ||||
| Current grants | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Capital grants | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | ||||
| Total expenditure and lending minus repayments | 15.1 | 16.2 | 16.0 | 18.3 | 20.2 | 20.0 | 20.1 | 18.8 | 18.9 | 19.0 | ||||
| of which: Social priority spending | 0.7 | … | 0.8 | … | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | ||||
| Current expenditure | 11.7 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.9 | ||||
| Wages and salaries | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | ||||
| Interest payments | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Foreign | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | ||||
| Domestic | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||
| Other | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | ||||
| Goods and services | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | ||||
| Transfers and Subsidies | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | ||||
| of which: disaster relief | 0.0 | … | 0.0 | … | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| of which: Air Madagascar | 0.1 | … | 0.0 | … | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| of which: JIRAMA | 0.9 | … | 0.9 | … | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Treasury operations (net)1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.1 | ||||
| Domestic financed | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | ||||
| Disaster relief | 0.0 | … | 0.0 | … | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Foreign financed | 2.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | ||||
| Identified financing | 7.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.7 | ||||
| Unidentified financing | … | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.8 | ||||
| Overall balance (commitment basis)2 | −3.3 | −3.2 | −1.3 | −4.4 | −5.1 | −4.7 | −4.5 | −3.8 | −3.5 | −3.3 | ||||
| Float (variation of accounts payable, + = increase) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Variation of domestic arrears (+ = increase) | −0.5 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Overall balance (including grants, cash basis)2 | −3.7 | −4.5 | −2.1 | −5.1 | −6.0 | −5.2 | −4.8 | −4.0 | −3.5 | −3.3 | ||||
| Primary balance excl. foreign-financed investment3 | −1.3 | −0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | −0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | ||||
| Total financing | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | ||||
| Foreign borrowing (residency principle) | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | ||||
| External borrowing, gross | 2.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.2 | ||||
| Budget support loans | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Project loans | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.2 | ||||
| Amortization on a due basis (-) | −0.4 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.9 | ||||
| Domestic borrowing (residency principle) | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | ||||
| Monetary sector | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | ||||
| Non-monetary sector | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||||
| Treasury correspondent accounts (net) | −0.5 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Excess financing4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 0.0 | −1.6 | −1.4 | −2.2 | −2.6 | −2.9 | ||||
| of which: budget support needs | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ||||
| of which: Air Madagascar | … | … | … | … | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Projections for domestic taxes and other treasury operations net include an amount