2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Poland


2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Poland

Fund Relations

(As of May 31, 2017)

Membership Status: Joined 6/12/1986; Article VIII

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None

Latest Financial Arrangements:

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Projected Payments to Fund (SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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Exchange Arrangements:

The zloty is freely floating.

Poland accepted the obligation of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4 on June 1, 1995. Poland maintains an exchange system free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, except for the exchange restrictions imposed by Poland solely for the preservation of national or international security as introduced by the European Union (EU) within the framework of the Common Foreign and Security Policy. The consolidated list of such sanctions is available at: http://eeas.europa.eu/cfsp/sanctions/consol-list/index_en.htm.

Article IV Consultation:

The last Article IV consultation was concluded on June 27, 2016. Directors noted that Poland enjoyed a strong economic expansion, reflecting progress in building strong fundamentals and policy buffers. They cautioned against a weakening of institutions and policies and encouraged the authorities to advance structural reforms to support inclusive growth. Specifically:

  • Monetary policy. Directors noted that the accommodative monetary policy stance was appropriate but urged the authorities to remain vigilant if inflation expectations were to disappoint or if growth were to slow down sharply.

  • Financial sector policy. Directors welcomed the strengthened financial sector frameworks. They expressed concerns about the new bank asset tax, which could undermine credit expansion and growth, and encouraged the authorities to consider a more growth-friendly tax. They noted that a case-by-case approach to restructuring foreign exchange-denominated mortgages rather than a blanket conversion would avoid destabilizing the financial sector.

  • Fiscal policy. Directors concurred with the authorities’ medium-term objective of 1 percent of GDP structural deficit. Most Directors considered it necessary to resume fiscal consolidation without delay to take advantage of the favorable cyclical conditions. They recommended maintaining the 2011 VAT increase, rationalizing discretionary government consumption, and reducing sizable VAT policy and compliance gaps. They welcomed the authorities’ plans to strengthen tax administration, and encouraged the authorities to maintain the legislated retirement age increases, which would reduce the risk of old-age poverty, avoid adversely impacting the budget and improve labor force participation.

  • Structural reforms. Directors encouraged the authorities to continue structural reforms to boost productivity and promote inclusive growth. They welcomed the authorities’ plans to increase access to vocational training and to promote innovation. Directors advised that reducing regional disparities would require improving educational attainment in Poland’s east, scaling up public infrastructure to attract investment to poorer regions, and facilitating labor mobility.

Resident Representative:

Mr. Bas Bakker is the Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe.

Republic of Poland: Technical Assistance from the Fund, 1992–2017

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Statistical Issues

(As of May 31, 2017)

Assessment of Data Adequacy for Surveillance

General: Data provision is adequate for surveillance.

National Accounts: The Central Statistical Office (GUS) compiles and disseminates annual and quarterly GDP by production and expenditure approaches, both at current and previous year’s prices following the 2008 SNA and ESA 2010. A supply and use table is only available for the year 2010. Quarterly financial accounts of general government sector are compiled by the Central Statistical Office (GUS). Annual and quarterly financial accounts by institutional sectors are compiled by Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) following the ESA 2010 standards and disseminated regularly on its website according to an advance release calendar: the annual financial accounts on the 20th of October the following year and quarterly financial accounts on the 20th calendar day of the 4th month following the end of the reference quarter (i.e., on the 20th of January, April, July, and October).

Price Statistics: The consumer price index does not cover imputed rents of owner-occupied dwellings. The scope of the index covers all resident households, except those in some rural areas. The producer price index does not include any estimation for missing prices; quality and seasonal adjustment techniques are also not implemented.

Government Finance Statistics: The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is responsible for compiling monthly data. The data are compiled in accordance with the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001). Monthly cash data cover “core” central government. Revenue and expense are divided by economic type. Financing is classified by sector and by type of debt instrument.

Starting in 2015 (annual data for 2014), GUS is responsible for collecting, processing, and disseminating annual government finance statistics. The data are compiled according to European System of Accounts (ESA2010) and adjusted to GFS Manual 2014. The annual reports cover presentation of fiscal data on operations of the general government sector divided by central government, local government, and social security funds. Revenue and expense are divided by transactions. Financing is classified by sector and by type of debt instrument. General government data are released on a quarterly basis, derived from detailed ESA data. Monthly and annual data are regularly disseminated on the SDDS website. Data for 2013 were prepared by the Ministry of Finance according to GFS2001, while data for 2014 were prepared by the Central Statistical Office according to GFSM2014.

Monetary and Financial Statistics: Beginning with data for January 2004, the NBP provides the European Central Bank (ECB) with monetary accounts in accordance with the ECB’s framework for monetary statistics using the national residency approach. Data on other financial corporations (OFC) are currently not available. An earlier Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) mission recommended that the NBP, in cooperation with the MoF, reconcile monetary and government finance statistics and carry out a reconciliation exercise on a regular basis.

Financial Sector Surveillance: In November 2009, NBP in cooperation with GUS, the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) and MoF began reporting financial soundness indicators (FSI) based on the IMF’s Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide. Poland is currently reporting all core FSIs and 21 of the 28 encouraged FSIs on a quarterly basis with a lag of approximately one quarter. NBP also implemented EU regulation 680/2014, which covers supervisory reporting defined by the Implementing Technical Standards (ITS) prepared by the European Banking Authority. The first data was collected for March 2014 for own funds and liquidity related reporting. Financial reporting on a consolidated basis according to the ITS scheme was reported for the first time for September 2014.

External Sector Statistics: Largely to improve data accuracy, the NBP fully depends on survey-based source data, starting in the first quarter of 2010. STA undertook an evaluation mission to Poland in July 2009, and followed up in June 2011 to assess further data improvements and anticipated revisions in the external sector accounts. Due to the comprehensive work on improving the data sources, the errors and omissions reduced from 4 percent of GDP in 2004 to around 1 percent of GDP in recent years, which is comparable to the level in other European countries. Authorities are committed to further improving the compilation system for the external sector statistics.

Poland, as all other EU countries, started disseminating balance of payments data in accordance with the sixth edition of the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) and external debt statistics in line with the 2013 External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users (2013 EDS Guide).

Poland reports Coordinated Direct Investment Survey and Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey data to the IMF.

Data Standards and Quality

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Republic of Poland: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance–as of May 31, 2016

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Any reserve assets that are pledged of otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); Not Available (NA).

Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC published on November 6, 2001, and based on the findings of the respective missions that took place during May 10–18, 2001 for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. For fiscal data, also takes account of the 2009 Fiscal Transparency ROSC. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O), largely observed (LO), largely not observed (LNO), or not observed (NO).

Same as footnote 7, except referring to international standards concerning (respectively) source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation, and revision studies.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.