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World Bank, 2016a, The Uganda Poverty Assessment Report - Farms, Cities and Good Fortune: Assessing Poverty Reduction in Uganda from 2006 to 2013.
World Bank, 2016c, Uganda Economic Update: From Smart Budgets to Smart Returns - Unleashing the Power of Public Investment Management
Prepared by Martin Brownbridge (Bank of Uganda) and Larry Qiang Cui. Bertrand Gruss provided valuable inputs, and Tunc Gursoy provided excellent research assistance.
Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) rebased GDP data from FY2009/10 onward in 2014, but not on historical series, and thus the results should be taken with caution. Recent BoU analysis suggest the average real GDP growth rates could be one percentage point lower if measured on the new base.
Based on the World Bank’s 2016 Uganda Poverty Assessment Report. The poverty rate refers to poverty headcount ratios measured by the international poverty line of 2011 international PPP$1.9 per day. Under the national poverty line, the poverty ratio declined from 56.4 percent in 1993 to 19.7 percent in 2013, but the national poverty line was set two decades ago.
The literature indicates that such HP filter estimates are subject to potential bias of end-year observations. Nevertheless, an alternative multivariate Kalman filter approach finds a similar decline of the estimated trend growth from about 7 percent to 4 percent in the same period.
The estimates on the impact of the external factors are based on cross-country panel regressions and applied to Uganda. External demand conditions are measured by the export-weighted growth rate of domestic absorption of Uganda’s trading partners. External financing conditions are proxied by a quantity-based measure of capital flows to peer developing economies in Africa. The terms of trade refer to commodity price changes weighted by their shares in a country’s total trade. See chapter 2 of IMF (2017b) for details.
The sectoral productivity growth rates need to be treated with caution because the classification of occupations in the labor force modules of the household surveys may not have been consistent with GDP classifications to support consistent estimates over time.
Selected Issues Paper, “Financial Inclusion and Development.”