Abstract
Niger: Selected Issues
Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Niger: Opportunities and Challenges
Accelerating and managing the demographic transition through the promotion of a strong and sustainable growth environment is critical to harness the demographic dividend, but also to achieve the macro-critical objectives of a financial program in Niger supported by the Extended Credit Facility. Niger hosts the fastest growing population in the world, with the highest fertility rate and a significant decline in the mortality rate. These demographic trends set Niger’s window of demographic dividend to open, but very slowly, after 2020 and could last beyond 2100. To make the best of that opportunity, and manage the adverse economic and social side of a fast growing population, policymakers should sustain macroeconomic stability for the basis of an environment conducive to the development of the private sector. Through the policies aimed at managing the course to the demographic dividend, they should also build resilience to exogenous shocks, create the needed fiscal space to invest in education, health services, and construct infrastructures that are supportive to private sector development.
A. Introduction
1. Demographic dividend is generally apprehended into two frameworks (Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason, 2006). The first: changes in the age structure of the population following the decline of the fertility and child mortality rates could be translated into a window of opportunity for rapid growth in income per capita and poverty reduction. A declining fertility rate reduces the child dependency burden and increases the share of the population that work and save, allowing resources to be reallocated to building infrastructure and investing in research and development and human capital such as education and health. Also, low fertility could increase women’s work participation rate contributing to higher national income. This dividend could last several decades, but as the population ages, the burden of the elderly dependency reduces the growth in income per capita and eventually it could turn negative. The second: in the absence of strong government’s support policies for the older generation and an intergenerational income transfer, the working population facing a longer retirement period is incentivized to save assets. Those assets have the potential of raising income per capita and boosting economic performance leading to a sustainable development.
2. Niger fits into the former model. Like other sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, Niger’s most formidable economic asset could soon be its people. As Niger’s demographics change, the country could enjoy significant growth if policies are tailored to tap into this potential (Thakoor and Wakeman-Lin, Finance & Development March 2016). The country has the fastest growing population in the world with a very small share of population aged over 65 years old. If the country is able to reduce significantly its fertility rate, there will be an opportunity to benefit from the first type of democratic dividend provided that the right policies are applied. However, given the effects that rapid population growth could have on poverty dynamics and development needs, Niger could face serious macroeconomic challenges in the absence of proper integration of demographic issues in the policy framework. This is so important going forward because in recent years spending to mitigate security and climatic shocks has diverted limited resources. This note analyzes the demographic transition in Niger and its challenges and identifies policies that could contribute to transforming the potential of its fast growing population into an opportunity to boost its economy. To that end, this paper analyzes the demographic transition in Niger, and its potential impact on the economy, and discusses the policies the country could undertake.
B. Population Dynamics in Niger
3. Niger is at the early stage of its demographic transition. Niger is at the early stage of its demographic transition with a rapid decline in mortality and a still too high fertility, fueling rapid population growth that is less urbanized with a median age of less than 15 years old.
Population Growth
4. Niger is experiencing high population growth. It could become in the near future the most populous country in the WAEMU. Niger’s population growth has been increasing, from less than 3 percent per annum in the 80’s to 4.11 percent in 2015 (Figure1). The population was estimated at 19.9 million in 2015, the second most populous country in the WAEMU (after Côte d’Ivoire, 22.7 million). The UN projects Niger’s population to double by 2034 and to surpass Côte d’Ivoire’s in 2024 and accounts for 19.3 percent of the WAEMU population. By 2050, Niger will account for a quarter of the WAEMU population and 3.4 percent of the SSA population, putting a lot of pressure on the government to meet the growing needs in terms of basic infrastructure and social services. The large decline in child mortality rate while fertility rate was increasing to the highest level in the world explains this recent surge in the population growth.
Niger: Population Growth Estimates and Projections, 1950-2100
(Annual percentage change)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Source: UN population prospects.Niger: Population Growth Estimates and Projections, 1950-2100
(Annual percentage change)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Source: UN population prospects.Niger: Population Growth Estimates and Projections, 1950-2100
(Annual percentage change)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Source: UN population prospects.5. For the next decades, this demographic momentum would continue to maintain a high population growth. In the authorities’ views informed by current policies, the population growth will decelerate faster than projected by international institutions. Nevertheless, regardless of government’s potential commendable population policies to reduce the fertility rate, current demographics dynamics (large share of the young population—51 percent of total population is between 0-14 years of age in 2015—entering their reproductive period in the next years) is a harbinger for more births and population growth in the years to come. Thus, the situation calls for a global strategy to contain fertility and create jobs for a growing population and associated needs for services in health, education, sanitation, and employment.
Mortality Transition
6. Niger is about to achieve the first step of the demographic transition as witnessed by the recent rapid decline in the mortality rate. Before 1985, unlike the trend observed in other regions in the world, including SSA, the under-5 mortality rate in Niger stabilized at a very high level of 319 per 1,000 children. However, since 1985, the mortality rate has been declining sharply to about 87 per 1,000 children in 2015, catching up with WAEMU and SSA’s average mortality rates (Figure 2). Two main factors could explain this reduction in child mortality: (i) the improved standards of living including increased access to clean water, sanitation, and better quality of food; (ii) the increasing access to health care, the higher outreach of vaccine, child nutrition supplement programs, and increased access to treatment for common diseases (e.g. malaria). Besides, the government donor-supported humanitarian programs, consisting of distributing free or subsidized foods and cereals, have helped, during climatic shocks, to mitigate the risk of hunger that exposes many children to death. Consequently, life expectancy has improved by more than 20 years during that period going from 42.7 years in 1985 to 62.8 years in 2015.
Niger: Under-5 Mortality Rate, 1950-2100
(0-5 years, average deaths per 1,000 births)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Source: UN population prospects.Niger: Under-5 Mortality Rate, 1950-2100
(0-5 years, average deaths per 1,000 births)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Source: UN population prospects.Niger: Under-5 Mortality Rate, 1950-2100
(0-5 years, average deaths per 1,000 births)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Source: UN population prospects.Fertility Transition
7. In contrast, the second step of the demographic transition is yet to materialize, as Niger remains the country with the highest fertility rate in the world. Niger’s fertility rate has been increasing, reaching its highest in 2005 at 7.8 children per woman, also the highest fertility rate in the world (Figure 3). In 2016 the fertility rate is projected at 7.6 children per woman, still more than 2.7 children above the average for SSA and more than 5 children above the averages of Latin America and the Caribbean, and the South-East Asia regions that are very advanced in their demographic transition. The UN projects a gradual fertility decline in Niger but the rate would still remain at 4.5 children in 2050. The determinants of high fertility in Niger, according to the 2012 survey on demography and health in Niger, are related to deep cultural roots, notably to: (i) religion/polygamy as most women are stuck in polygamous relationships, more children, notable boys, help secure large share of inheritance, (ii) working in the informal trade and agriculture sector; (iii) lacking education or holding only a primary school diploma; (iv) not using a modern contraceptive (the contraceptive prevalence in Niger was only 15 percent in 2015 compared to 76 percent in Mauritius);1 (v) being married at an early age providing longer maternal period—adolescent birth rate, age between 15-19, is 210 births for 1,000 women compared to 31 births per 1,000 women in Mauritius, also 89 percent of women between the age 15-24 are married before 18 years old—. Most of those factors are linked to some extent and could be addressed by fostering women education (holding them longer at school), extending health services to rural areas, and implementing policies that promote women empowerment.
Niger: Total Fertility Rate, 1950-2100
(Average number of children per woman)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Source: UN population prospects.Niger: Total Fertility Rate, 1950-2100
(Average number of children per woman)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Source: UN population prospects.Niger: Total Fertility Rate, 1950-2100
(Average number of children per woman)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Source: UN population prospects.Immigration
8. Immigration is relatively low in Niger, despite Niger being part of the gateway through Libya to Europe, and remittances are limited. Nigerien migrants could easily follow the movement to access Europe through Libya or other parts of the world. Such cross-border movements, like births and deaths, are another channel through which demographic transition could materialize, because of its impact on the size and the structure of the population. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), only 1.8 percent of Nigeriens were living outside their country in 2015 with the majority located in Benin, Togo, and Nigeria. Migrants to North America and Europe are mostly students that decided to remain in their host countries after completing their studies. The country’s ratio of net migration is -0.3 emigrant per 1,000 people, very small compared to similar countries, like Mali with -2.1 emigrant per 1,000 people.
Urbanization
9. Although Niger’s urban population is growing at 5.4 percent a year in 2015, due largely to rural exodus and/or rural areas growing to cities, the pace is still lagging behind peers. Growing at a rate of 1 percentage point higher than the total population growth, the urban population in Niger represents about 18.7 percent of the total population, compared to more than 50 percent in Ghana, and 80 percent in Latin America, the most urbanized developing region in the world. If rapid urbanization is argued to benefit a country by creating large pools of labor and markets for selling goods and services, it ironically poses serious challenges in terms of crime, poverty, youth unemployment, congestions of roads, and provision of housing and public services such as education, health, and sanitation all of which have implications on both the population and total factor productivity. In the case of Niger, survey data suggest that urban areas have lower poverty rates (10.2 percent in Niamey compared to 48.9 percent at the national level), better access to health and education services, and lower fertility rate (5.6 children per woman against 8.1 children per woman in rural areas, INS 2012). Urban areas also suffer more from unemployment estimated at 24.5 percent compared to 15.6 percent in rural areas. As of 2014, 70.1 percent of the Niger’s population live in slums highlighting the need for housing.
Age Structure
10. The age structure displays less of a transformation and is expected to remain almost the same beyond 2050. The age structure in Niger is expected to remain pyramidal until beyond 2050, dominated by the youth (under 15 years old) with a low share of elderly people (Figure 4). Half of Niger’s population was under 15 years of age in 2015; this would only drop to 43.9 percent in 2050 due to the projected slow decline in the fertility rate (Table 1). This would translate into a moderate decline in the dependency ratio going from 113 percent in 2015 to 86.7 percent in 2050. Niger dependency ratio in 2050 will exceed the averages for SSA and other regions (Latin America and Asia) by 25 and 32 percentage points, respectively. This high dependency ratio suggests that Nigerien workers will have to support more unemployed. Giving the low income earned by workers in Niger compared to other regions in the world, this will leave little room for saving and providing good quality life and strong education to their dependents.
Niger: Age Structure of the Population, 1950, 2015 and 2050
Niger: Age Structure of the Population, 1950, 2015 and 2050
| Niger | SSA | SEA | LA&C | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 2015 | 2050 | 2050 | 2050 | 2050 | |
| Population below 15 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 43.9 | 33.5 | 19.5 | 17.1 |
| Population between 15-24 | 19.5 | 17.9 | 20.4 | 18.8 | 13.3 | 12.2 |
| Population between 15-64 | 49.6 | 47.0 | 53.5 | 61.6 | 64.9 | 63.4 |
| Population 65 and over | 0.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 15.6 | 19.5 |
| Median age | 15.2 | 14.8 | 17.8 | 23.7 | 37.6 | 41.2 |
| Total dependency ratio | 101.6 | 113.0 | 86.8 | 62.4 | 54.1 | 57.8 |
Niger: Age Structure of the Population, 1950, 2015 and 2050
| Niger | SSA | SEA | LA&C | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 2015 | 2050 | 2050 | 2050 | 2050 | |
| Population below 15 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 43.9 | 33.5 | 19.5 | 17.1 |
| Population between 15-24 | 19.5 | 17.9 | 20.4 | 18.8 | 13.3 | 12.2 |
| Population between 15-64 | 49.6 | 47.0 | 53.5 | 61.6 | 64.9 | 63.4 |
| Population 65 and over | 0.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 15.6 | 19.5 |
| Median age | 15.2 | 14.8 | 17.8 | 23.7 | 37.6 | 41.2 |
| Total dependency ratio | 101.6 | 113.0 | 86.8 | 62.4 | 54.1 | 57.8 |
Niger: Population Age Pyramid in Niger and Some Regions in the World, 1950-2100
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Sources: UN population prospects; and IMF staff calculations.Niger: Population Age Pyramid in Niger and Some Regions in the World, 1950-2100
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Sources: UN population prospects; and IMF staff calculations.Niger: Population Age Pyramid in Niger and Some Regions in the World, 1950-2100
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Sources: UN population prospects; and IMF staff calculations.11. The share of the working age population (SWAP) would be just over 50 percent in 2050 and the country could enter its “bulge of youth”. The SWAP in Niger should increase from 47 percent in 2015 to 53.5 percent in 2050, about 10 percentage points below the projected levels of the average of South East Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean (Table 1). By 2050, the population age between 15-24 will reach 20 percent, a situation described as the “bulge of youth”. This may cause disruptive political and social movements, if the government fails to meet their increasing demands for education, health, and employment. Furthermore, the rapid growth of youth could bring other social problems observed in some big cities in Africa and Latin America requiring more investment in security.
12. This age structure could have significant economic implications. In Niger, the political economy of demographics is complex. As the share of the young population is projected to decline to the benefit of increasing number of adults, there is a possibility of a rapid increase in incomes and savings in the society. However, income behavior will depend on the advance on job creation and the share of working age population employed as employment opportunities expand. Assuming that earnings would exceed consumption, the economy would benefit from the increase in its SWAP. As in Niger, the projected age structure suggests less of a gain from the increase in its SWAP.
C. Demographic Transition: Opportunities and Challenges
The demographics trends in Niger presents opportunities over the long term, but important challenges will have to be addressed before harnessing the demographic dividend.
Opportunities from the Demographic Transition
13. There are many transmission channels through which the demographic transition could affect the Nigerien economy. Based on recent studies (Galor and Weil, 2000; Bloom and others, 2009; and Thakoor and al, 2016), four channels could be identified in the case of Niger: (i) the increase of the employable share of the working-age population coming from more women labor force participation following the decline in fertility; (ii) increase of overall saving coming from the increase share of working-age adult which tend to save more compared to other groups, providing the resources for investment to boot growth; (iii) people with fewer children and living longer tending to spend more on health care and education, hence contributing to more productive labor force; and (iv) a larger working population could lead to greater domestic demand and spur both local and foreign investment. We focus on the role of the reduction of the population growth and the increase of the share of the working age population.
Potential Gain from Lower Population Growth
14. Niger would benefit marginally from the reduction in its population growth, given the projected modest decline in population growth and the span of time.2 In formula 1 (Footnote 2), assuming some level of parameters (δ=0.05 and α =1/3), the change of the Niger’s population growth between 2015 and 2050 (35 years) going from 4.11 percent to 3.18 percent would generate a gain in GDP per capita of only 5.5 percent. From the current status to the projected one in 2100 (1.3 percent) would generate a gain of 20.25 percent. If Niger is able to accelerate the reduction of its population growth and also improve on other factors affecting positively the steady state level of GDP per capita namely total factor productivity and the saving rate, it could benefit more from its demographic transition.
Role of the Increase in the SWAP
15. In Niger, the window3 of opportunity for demographic dividend from the increase in the SWAP is expected to start slowly between 2020 and 2025, and could last beyond 2100. In the past, Niger has experienced some episodes of increasing SWAP that were not sustained, as some were due to severe droughts that triggered hunger and deaths of children and big waves of emigration to neighboring countries. According to the UN projections, another window of opportunity to benefit a demographic dividend would open after 2020 that will last beyond 2100. However, the longer it takes for the SWAP to reach its peak, less the country could benefit from the demographic dividend. It took the Latin America countries 45 years and the South East Asian Countries 50 years to reach their maximum SWAP at around 67.5 percent and they enjoyed several-fold-increase in GDP per capita. While, for SSA it would take almost 100 years starting 1990 for the SWAP to reach its maximum estimated at a lower level (64.5 percent) and generating an increase in GDP per capita of about only 55 percent (IMF, 2015). However, the size of the dividend would be determined by how much people produce and consume at each age level. In the case of Niger, producers are between ages 30 and 65; and using the support ratio criterion,4 Niger would enter into the window of opportunity after 2030, delaying the first estimate using the SWAP by about 10 years.
Niger: Share of Working Age Population (15 to 64 years old), 1950-2100
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Sources: UN population prospects; and IMF staff calculations.Niger: Share of Working Age Population (15 to 64 years old), 1950-2100
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Sources: UN population prospects; and IMF staff calculations.Niger: Share of Working Age Population (15 to 64 years old), 1950-2100
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 060; 10.5089/9781475582888.002.A004
Sources: UN population prospects; and IMF staff calculations.Challenges in Harnessing the Demographic Dividend
To harness the demographic dividend opportunity, a number of conditions should be met, along with right policies. In particular Niger should build resilience to address exposure to exogenous shocks, implement policies that create jobs for the growing youth, along with higher quality of education and expanding a better educated work force which could be more inclusive as women would be more represented.
16. Exposure to multiple shocks prevents Niger from achieving a strong and sustainable growth. An average economic growth rate of more than 7 percent a year is needed to reduce significantly poverty, which affects almost half of its population. Recently, though growth has been at a respectable rate, it was irregular growth in respect to heightened security and climatic shocks, and low commodity prices and spillover from the economic downturn in neighboring countries. Growth declined to 3.5 percent in 2015 after reaching 7 percent in 2014, and it is expected to be only at 4.6 percent in 2016. Projected at 6 percent, the medium term growth is driven by investment in the resource sector but would still be lower than what is needed to create jobs and reduce poverty.
17. The unemployment rate is very high in Niger, especially for women, with most workers employed in the informal sector. To enjoy the demographic dividend, the population of workers needs to be increased by creating more well paid jobs. The government is the main formal employer while more than 99 percent of the workforce is employed in the informal sector, which represents 64.8 percent of the economy (INS, 2015). In 2014, the participation rate was estimated at 64.7 percent and the unemployment rate at 17.4 percent, with a significant gender gap. The women participation rate is only 40.7 percent (90.8 percent for male) and more than 20 percent of women are unemployed. Furthermore, a large number of workers, 34.6 percent, suffers from underemployment. This rate reaches 83.6 percent in rural areas because of the seasonal nature of their work.
18. Recent government policy has helped improve access to education but more needs to be done. Efforts should in particular focus on reducing the gender gap at all level of the education system. Scale up public investment in education and ensuring its efficiency is essential for improving productivity and achieving sustainable growth. The Asian tigers achieved their economic miracle by investing heavily in education and ensuring that it is tailored to producing the skills required for diversifying their economy. In Niger, public spending on education has increased from 3.9 percent of total spending in 2010 to 7.1 percent in 2014 before declining to 5.9 percent in 2015, with an increasing share of resources devoted to secondary and tertiary education. Consequently, the education indicators have improved at all levels but there are still a lot do. According to the World Development Indicators (WDI), in 2014, the net primary enrolment rate was 65.6 for male and 56.2 for female, and the net secondary enrollment was 18.6 for male and 12.6 for female. In contrast, net enrolment for tertiary education was lower at around 3 percent for male and 1 percent for female. Education quality remains low and higher education is not tailored to meeting the needs of the job markets. Most students study social sciences (including economics, literature, law) at the university with few student graduating in technical and engineering studies that are needed in an expanding economy.
19. The background paper on gender reports that, although improving, gender inequality in Niger is a major issue and entails major loss of income for the country. There are severe gender gaps in Niger in terms of employment and education mainly at the high level of education as shown previously. Also Niger ranks 154 out of 155 (Yemen ranking last) in the Index of Gender Inequity. Some of this gender gaps are culturally entrenched making them difficult to eliminate. Since 2008, the government has a national policy on gender equality which has helped set quotas for women at some high level positions (including at the National Assembly and the government). But there is a strong push-back from opinion leaders when it comes to passing women right protection laws. The government is advocating strongly at the local community level and toward the more moderate leaders to gain support to advance its gender agenda.
20. Challenging business environment and shallow financial systems are also to be addressed. The Niger’s overall ranking in the doing business index has been improving in recent years but the country continues to lag behind in some components of the index (see the background note on the external stability assessment). Niger’s ranking of ease of doing business went from 176th position in 2014 to 150th position in the 2017 doing business report, increasing by 26 notches. Niger went from being the worst business environment in the WAEMU excluding Guinea Bissau to being at the fourth best in WAEMU as the government has intensified reforms aimed at improving the business environment. However, Nigerien firms face more severe challenges than average WAEMU and SSA in paying taxes, getting electricity, and dealing with construction permits. Niger’s financial sector, which is important in ensuring savings could translate into good and profitable investment, is still the shallowest in the WAEMU countries. As a result, limited access to credit is hampering strongly private sector initiative and development.
D. Policy Recommendations
Niger will experience in the next 5 to 15 years an increase in the share of the working age population, offering an opportunity to start capturing a demographic dividend, provided that adequate policies are designed and properly implemented. Specifically, Niger will need to implement the following policies in order to increase the potential gain from its demographic transition:
Putting in place policies to accelerate the demographic transition. Such policies must concentrate in reducing the high fertility rate by increasing access to modern contraceptive methods, the reduction of social and cultural weight that contribute to the high fertility rate. The focus will be to invest in changing believes specially for the youths and men and reinforcing women empowerment through education, protecting their right, and providing them full access to the labor market. The regional project called “Women’s Empowerment and the Demographic Dividend in the Sahel” (SWEDD) launched in late 2015 with a World Bank financing and a UNFPA technical support could help in that regard.
Promoting macroeconomic stability to build the foundation for a strong, sustainable and inclusive growth. To that end, Niger should continue to build resilience to many of the shocks experienced recently. Improving revenue mobilization will be key as well as rationalizing spending, managing liquidity and debt, and planning medium-term expenditures. This would lay the ground for creating fiscal space, scaling investment, and addressing social needs.
Investing in human capital to enhance the productivity of the work force. The government should ensure that resources are adequately allocated to the health and education sectors to build a healthy and skilled work force that is critical in improving total factor productivity. The policies should focus on improving the quality of education and access to secondary and tertiary education especially for women and ensuring that the education programs supply the skills required in the job market.
Achieving a sound economic and social structural transformation and creating jobs through more private sector contribution. Policies should aim at improving the business environment and designing a tax system that is supportive to SMEs and to the transformation of the dominant informal sector into formal businesses. The 3N Initiative that would benefit from Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), could be scaled up to support a more productive and modern agriculture and the emergence of a labor-intense agro-industry. Policies could aim to a more flexible labor market coupled with retraining programs.
Increasing resource mobilization by leveraging revenue from the resource sector. Resources generated from the resource sector should be invested in developing infrastructure including energy to reduce cost of doing business and enhance the country competiveness.
Taking advantage of regional integration to access a larger market and expand trade possibilities. Niger is the neighbor of the most populated and the largest economy in Africa, Nigeria, which is also destination of most of its non-mining exports. Niger exports to Nigeria raw agricultural products, cattle, and more recently refined oil products. The completion of the Niamey Cotonou rail road, should facilitate the country’s access to the port and increase the flow of goods that transit in Niger toward the northern part of Nigeria. Building modern butcheries and canneries for both livestock and agriculture products would also improve the value-added on products that are exported to Nigeria, and hence, raise Niger’s export earnings.
Developing the financial sector by implementing the recently adopted plans. It is important to recognize the role that the financial sector could play in the policies aimed at benefiting from the demographic dividend, notably in term of mobilizing saving and ensuring credit flows efficiently to benefit the most profitable sectors. New technology with the mobile banking should also help mainly is arears where the economic justification to having a bank or micro-credit branch does not exist.
References
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Links to data sources:
http://www.indexmundi.com/niger/
https://www.iom.int/countries/niger
Mauritius is one of the SSA country that is advanced in its demographic transition and was able to benefit from its demographic dividend.
Where Y1 is the steady state of the GDP per capita associated with the population growth n1, Y2 is the steady state of the GDP per capita associated with the population growth n2, α is the elasticity of income with respect to capital, and δ the annual rate of capital depreciation.
The window of opportunity to benefit from the first type of the demographic dividend starts when the SWAP start to increase consistently because of the reduction in both the fertility and death rates. It often lasts for a period of 50 years and end when SWAP start to decline because of an increasing share of elderly people which could allow the country start benefiting from the second demographic dividend, which lasts longer.
To determine the window of opportunity for the demographic dividend, the National Transfer Account project uses the “support ratio” criterion defined as the ratio of the number of producers (earning more than what they consume) to the number of consumers which is often different from the SWAP.
