Prudent macroeconomic policies, strong institutions, and a commitment to diversify its markets and products have allowed Uruguay to show resilience in the face of sharp recessions in its large neighbors. Nevertheless, economic growth slowed down in 2015 and 2016 while inflation remains above target. In 2017, an improving regional environment is expected to contribute to a modest further recovery, while inflation should slowly converge towards the target range. Given rising debt and high inflation, the room for more expansionary fiscal or monetary policy is limited.

Abstract

Prudent macroeconomic policies, strong institutions, and a commitment to diversify its markets and products have allowed Uruguay to show resilience in the face of sharp recessions in its large neighbors. Nevertheless, economic growth slowed down in 2015 and 2016 while inflation remains above target. In 2017, an improving regional environment is expected to contribute to a modest further recovery, while inflation should slowly converge towards the target range. Given rising debt and high inflation, the room for more expansionary fiscal or monetary policy is limited.

Fund Relations

(As of October 31, 2016)

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None

Latest Financial Arrangements:

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Projected Payments to Fund 1

(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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Ex-Post Assessment. The last Ex-Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement was considered by the Executive Board on August 29, 2007 (Country Report No. 08/47).

Exchange Rate Arrangement. The currency is the Uruguayan peso (UY$). Uruguay’s de jure and de facto exchange rate arrangements are classified as floating. Since June 2013, monetary policy targets the growth rate of M1 plus saving deposits as the intermediate instrument. On December 8 2016, the exchange rate in the official market was UY$ 28.80 per U.S. dollar. Uruguay has accepted the obligations of Article VIII and maintains an exchange rate system free of restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions.

FSAP participation and ROSCs. A Financial Sector Stability Assessment (FSSA) was considered by the Executive Board on June 28, 2006 (Country Report No. 06/187). An FSAP Update was conducted in 2012 and the FSSA was published on May 31, 2013 (Country Report No. 13/152). A ROSC module on fiscal transparency was published on March 5, 2001. A ROSC module on data dissemination practices was published on October 18, 2001. A ROSC on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) was published on December 12, 2006 (Country Report No. 06/435). A data module ROSC was published on February 11, 2014 (Country Report No. 14/42).

Technical Assistance 2008–16.

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Relations with the World Bank under JMAP

(As of October 12, 2016)

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Relations with the Inter-American Development Bank

(As of December 8, 2016)

The Inter-American Development Bank’s Board of Executive Directors approved in December 2015 the Country Strategy with Uruguay (2016-2020). Sovereign-guaranteed lending under the program is expected to reach approximately US$1.8 billion, which is considered to be consistent with Uruguay’s five year budget. The program includes additional non reimbursable financing for technical assistance and analytical work. Approved lending under the previous Country Strategy (2010-2015) reached approximately US$1.9 billion in sovereign guaranteed loans2 and US$1 billion in non-sovereign guaranteed loans.

The objectives of the country strategy for 2016–2020 are to: (i) boost productivity and competitiveness by promoting innovation, improving productive infrastructure, and supporting an integrated and coordinated policy for international positioning; (ii) promote equity and social inclusion by strengthening the human capital and employability of the population, supporting health care reform, improving habitat, and supporting the early childhood and youth segments of the most vulnerable population groups; and (iii) strengthen public sector management by supporting greater efficiency in public institutions and strengthening urban and departmental management.

As of October 31st 2016, the Bank’s portfolio in execution in Uruguay includes 37 sovereign guaranteed loans for US$2.1 billion. Of this total, 33 are investment loan operations totaling US$1.3 billion, and 4 are policy-based loans for US$800.8 million with a deferred drawdown option. The main sectors comprising the active public sector portfolio are: export and investment promotion (27%); public management and finance (16%); water, sanitation, and solid waste (14%); energy (14%); urban development and security (8%); transportation (7%); science and technology (2%); agribusiness (3%); education and job training (5%); and social protection (4%). The active private sector portfolio is composed of 22 loans totaling US$449.1 million, primarily concentrated in the energy (48%) and agribusiness sectors (46%).

Financial Relations With the Inter-American Development Bank1

(In millions of U.S. dollars) Total outstanding loans: US$1,728 (As of November 30, 2016)

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Source: Inter-American Development Bank.

Only loans with sovereign guarantee are considered.

Statistical Issues

(As of November 15, 2016)

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Uruguay: Common Indicators Required For Surveillance

(As of November 15, 2016)

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Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well net derivative positions.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).

This reflects the reassessment provided in the data ROSC (published in February 2014, and based on the findings of the mission that took place during August 20–31, 2012) for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning (respectively) (i) concepts and definitions, (ii) scope, (iii) classification/sectorization, and (iv) basis for recording are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO);largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).

Same as footnote 9, except referring to international standards concerning (respectively) (i) source data, (ii) assessment of source data, (iii) statistical techniques, (iv) assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs, and (v) revision studies.

1

When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.

2

This includes US$366 million approved under the Reallocation Program and US$50 million from the China Cofinancing Fund.

Uruguay: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.