Palau is a middle-income micro state in the Pacific (population: 18,000) that relies heavily on tourism and grants, and is exposed to natural disasters. The economy grew strongly at 9.4 percent in FY2015 led by robust tourism and construction activity, but the surge in tourist arrivals strained infrastructure and was tilted to low budget tourism. The fiscal position has improved, but further efforts are needed to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. The outlook is favorable although subject to significant downside risks. The discussions focused on

Abstract

Palau is a middle-income micro state in the Pacific (population: 18,000) that relies heavily on tourism and grants, and is exposed to natural disasters. The economy grew strongly at 9.4 percent in FY2015 led by robust tourism and construction activity, but the surge in tourist arrivals strained infrastructure and was tilted to low budget tourism. The fiscal position has improved, but further efforts are needed to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. The outlook is favorable although subject to significant downside risks. The discussions focused on

Fund Relations

(As of July 31, 2016)

Membership Status: Joined December 16, 1997; Article VIII

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None.

Financial Arrangements: None.

Projected Obligations to Fund: None.

Exchange Rate Arrangements.

The U.S. dollar is legal tender and the official currency. Palau maintains an exchange system that is free of restrictions on international payments and transfers for current and capital transactions.

Article IV Consultation:

Palau is on a 24-month consultation cycle. The last Article IV consultation discussions were held in February 2014. The Executive Board discussed the staff report and concluded the consultation on April 23, 2014.

Technical Assistance:

FAD, LEG, STA, and PFTAC have provided technical assistance on tax reforms, statistics, banking supervision, and Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism.

Resident Representative:

Mr. Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan has been the Resident Representative for Pacific Island Countries since [September] 2014. He is based in Suva, Fiji.

IMF–World Bank Collaboration

(August 2016)

The World Bank and IMF teams for the Republic of Palau led by Mr. Robert Utz (Lead Economist) and Mr. Guajardo (IMF Mission Chief for Palau) maintain a close working relationship and dialogue on macroeconomic and structural issues.

Palau’s reliance on tourism, grants and commodity imports pose risks to the economy. In turn, Palau will need to rely on fiscal and structural policies to help mitigate potential risks such as a slowdown in key trading partners, further U.S. dollar appreciation, natural disasters, and higher commodity prices. Against this backdrop, the teams agreed that Palau’s key macroeconomic challenge is to enhance resilience and lift potential growth in the medium term. Based on this shared assessment, the teams identified key areas of reforms as follows: (i) securing fiscal sustainability; (ii) raising potential growth and enhancing resilience; and (iii) ensuring financial stability and facilitating credit extension.

To this end, the World Bank is currently supporting the government of Palau in undertaking reforms and investments aimed at improving access to Information and Communications Technology (ICT). A Technical Assistance Grant, signed in September 2013, provides advisory support and capacity building needed to support ICT sector reform and liberalization in Palau. Furthermore, under Phase II of the Pacific Regional Connectivity Program, an investment in telecommunications infrastructure is under preparation. This could entail support for a fiber-optic submarine cable in order to increase the availability and reduce the cost of international bandwidth and hence facilitate the rollout of faster-cheaper broadband Internet.

Palau: Bank and Fund Implemented and Planned Activities, 2015–16

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Relations with the Asian Development Bank

(August 2016)

After joining the Asian Development Bank (AsDB) in December, 2003, as its sixty-third member country, Palau was classified as an AsDB developing member country in December 2005. AsDB has since approved 6 loans totaling US$69.8 million and six technical assistance projects totaling US$3.8 million. Cumulative disbursements to Palau for lending and grants financed by Ordinary Capital Resources (OCR), the Asian Development Fund (ADF), and other special funds amount to $17.7 million.

Country Operations and Business Partnership (COBP) 2016-2018 attaches high priority to provide support to improve public sector effectiveness, facilitate private sector development, deliver safe water and sanitation services, and improve connectivity.

Regional connectivity is vital for Palau’s development. In December 2015, AsDB approved lending of US$25 million for the North Pacific Regional Connectivity Investment Project. The project will increase broadband access in Palau by supporting the development of a submarine fiber-optic cable system to link Palau to an internet cable hub in Guam.

Also in 2015, AsDB provided technical assistance to help the Government of the Republic of Palau generate policy options for tourism development.

AsDB assistance was also given to develop a medium-term budget framework that has enabled the government to plan more effectively, improve tools for fiscal management and deficit reduction, and better implement development plans. AsDB has built upon these initiatives by helping the government prepare its Medium-Term Development Strategy and provided support for Palau to conduct a household income and expenditure survey in 2014.

To improve access to business credit, AsDB has provided technical assistance for new secured transaction legislation. The government has launched a secured transaction registry, making it possible for banks to provide loans with greater security, and at reduced risk.

AsDB has also supported improvements to governance in Palau’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs), facilitate business growth by improving business registration systems, and develop an SOE policy that will eventually include relevant legislative measures.

AsDB support for sustainable health care financing was extended in 2013, with AsDB assistance covering the cost accounting of all health services in Palau. Also in 2013, AsDB released the second tranche of a program loan for a series of technical and infrastructure projects. These projects support Palau’s economic growth by improving public health, environmental protection, and basic water and sewerage services. AsDB approved a project to upgrade the sewerage network in Koror and Arai, which will directly benefit about 70 percent of the population, while helping to cater to the growing tourism market.

No lending pipeline for Palau is proposed in the COBP, 2016–2018 as the government will focus on project implementation. There is a proposed allocation of US$500,000 for technical assistance.

Table 1.

Loan, Grant, and Technical Assistance Approvals 1/

(In US$ Millions)

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Source: Listing of Loans. TA, Grant and Equity Approvals (OSFMD website).

Amounts are net of cancellations. Soverign Loans and grants include thise funded by OCR and ADF. Cofinancing includes funding for loans, grants and technical assistance from sources other than OCR, ADF and TASF.

Table 2.

Cumulative ADB Loan and Grants by Sector, as of December 2015

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Relations with the Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre (PFTAC)1

(August 2016)

Palau has been a heavy user of PFTAC technical assistance (TA) in recent years. In phase IV (FY2012–16) there were 24 missions, with the largest concentration in the Revenue Sector. Other results achieved in phase IV included revenue compliance strategies and strengthened bank supervision through the adoption of regulations, improved bank reporting, and the establishment of an on-site supervision program. Methodologies for producing a broader range of national income and balance of payments statistics were also developed.

Strategy 2014–16

PFTAC’s TA strategy is guided by the APD regional strategy note and is planned within the results framework for the current PFTAC (Phase IV) FY2012–16 funding cycle.2

PFTAC TA aims to support the authorities sustain progress on fiscal consolidation and strengthen the financial sector. Priorities will be strengthening revenue administration and, in close coordination with AsDB, improving PFM. Continued strengthening of financial sector supervision will also be required. Macroeconomic statistics will continue to be developed mainly via annual sub-regional workshops.

In the public financial management area, the focus will be on continuing to support AsDB’s project on developing medium-term budgeting. PFTAC in 2013 assisted Palau to undertake a PEFA Self-Assessment. Officials from Palau have regularly attended PFTAC’s PFM workshops including most recently its workshops on Medium-term Expenditure Forecasting (November 2015) and Social Security Finance Reform (April 2017).

In the tax policy and revenue area anticipated reforms to the current tax system, including the implementation of a VAT, have not materialized due to the Senate Ways and Means Committee unable to secure a majority vote. However, PFTAC recommendations to strengthen revenue administration were accepted by the authorities and resulted in: (a) the development of a new strategic and business plan which highlights the most important objectives to be achieved over the next three years; and (b) Ministerial approval to implement a new function based organizational structure. Budget clearance to secure additional resourcing requirements is underway and new staff position descriptions being negotiated with the Bureau of Public Service System.

In the financial sector supervision area, prudential returns are now implemented, and Palau is in line for the integration of the Financial Sector Information System (FSIS) developed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to be performed in late 2014. In June 2016, the Commission hosted the annual meeting of the Association of Financial Supervisors of Pacific Countries, for which PFTAC is the secretariat. Capacity building in risk based banking supervision will continue including workshops for management on how to manage in a risk based environment.

In economic statistics, PFTAC will continue to provide technical assistance for the development of GDP estimates by expenditure and will assist with capacity building in national accounts statistics (RBM code 4.1) to further embed independent production skills. IMF HQ will provide resources to produce better current and capital accounts of the balance of payments (RBM codes 4.6-4.8) and government finance statistics.

In the macroeconomic analysis and frameworks area, PFTAC will provide TA on developing the methodology used to forecast revenues focusing on planned tax reform measures. In addition, TA will also be provided to develop capacity to assess alternative fiscal consolidation options for preserving fiscal/debt sustainability when the Compact grants expire in FY2024.

Statistical Issues

Statistical Issues Appendix

(As of August 24, 2016)

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Palau: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of August 24, 2016)

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency, but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency, but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A);; irregular (I); and not available (NA).

1

PFTAC is a regional technical assistance institution operated by the IMF with financial support of the AsDB, Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. The Centre’s aim is to build skills and institutional capacity for effective economic and financial management that can be sustained at the national and regional level. Member countries are Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. It is based in Suva, Fiji.

2

The results framework and additional detail on recent activity can be found within the PFTAC Phase IV program document and FY2016 Annual Report, available at www.pftac.org.