United States: Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex
Author:
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
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Publication Date:
12 Jul 2016
eISBN:
9781498358958
Language:
English
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; spending momentum; article IV discussion; staff appraisal; potential GDP; rate; budgetary fund; social security fund; positions vis-à-vis nonresident; gross financial asset; Reserve assets
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This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the United States is now in its seventh consecutive year of expansion. The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9 percent, and household net worth is close to precrisis peaks. Nonetheless, the economy has gone through a temporary growth dip in the last two quarters. Lower oil prices led to a further contraction in energy sector investment, and a strong dollar and weak global demand have weighed on net exports. With activity indicators for the second quarter of 2016 rebounding, the economy is expected to grow at 2.2 percent and 2.5 percent in 2016 and 2017, which is above potential.

Abstract

This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the United States is now in its seventh consecutive year of expansion. The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9 percent, and household net worth is close to precrisis peaks. Nonetheless, the economy has gone through a temporary growth dip in the last two quarters. Lower oil prices led to a further contraction in energy sector investment, and a strong dollar and weak global demand have weighed on net exports. With activity indicators for the second quarter of 2016 rebounding, the economy is expected to grow at 2.2 percent and 2.5 percent in 2016 and 2017, which is above potential.

Fund Relations

(As of May 31 2016)

Membership Status: Joined 12/27/1945; Article VIII

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None

Financial Arrangements: None

Projected Payments to the Fund:

(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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Exchange Rate Arrangements. The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar floats independently and is determined freely in the foreign exchange market. The United States has accepted the obligations under Article VIII, Sections 2(a), 3 and 4 of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement and maintains an exchange system free of multiple currency practices and restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, except for those measures imposed for security reasons. The United States notifies the maintenance of measures imposed for security reasons under Executive Board Decision No. 144–(52/51). The last of these notifications was made June 3, 2016.

Article IV Consultation. The 2015 Article IV consultation was concluded on July 6, 2015 and the Staff Report was published as IMF Country Report No. 15/322. A fiscal Report of Observance of Standards and Codes was completed in the context of the 2003 consultation. The 2016 Article IV discussions took place May 23–June 9, 2016. Concluding meetings with Chair Yellen of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Treasury Secretary Lew occurred on June 20 and June 21 respectively. The Managing Director, Ms. Lagarde, the Deputy Managing Director, Mr. Zhu, and WHD Director, Mr. Werner, participated in the concluding meetings. A press conference on the consultation was held on June 22, 2016. The team comprised Nigel Chalk (head), Yasser Abdih, Ali Alichi, Ravi Balakrishnan, Stephan Danninger, Emanuel Kopp, Andrea Pescatori, Damien Puy (all WHD), Christian Henn and Stefan Laseen (SPR), Thornton Matheson (FAD), and Emmanuel Mathias (LEG). Mr. Sabharwal (Executive Director), Mr. Haarsager (Senior Advisor) and Mr. Hall (Advisor) attended some of the meetings. Outreach included discussions with Congressional staff, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, AFL-CIO, private sector representatives, and think tanks. Unless an objection from the authorities of the United States is received prior to the conclusion of the Board’s consideration, the document will be published.

Statistical Issues

Statistical Issues. Comprehensive economic data are available for the United States on a timely basis. The quality, coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of U.S. economic data are adequate for surveillance. The United States has subscribed to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and its metadata are posted on the Dissemination Standard Bulletin Board (DSBB).

United States: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of June 23, 2016)

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Daily (D), Weekly (W), Biweekly (B), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); NA: Not Available.

Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United States: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Author:
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2016: Issue 226
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
9781498358958
ISSN:
1934-7685
Pages:
85
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498358958.002