Poland continued its convergence to average EU income levels, growing well above most of its peers. Yet, significant regional disparities and long-term structural challenges remain. The new government, which took office in November 2015, has introduced a number of new policies, some of which have dented investor sentiment and could weaken growth going forward. The near-term outlook is for continued expansion with low oil prices weighing on inflation. External risks to the outlook remain elevated and prospects of controversial policy initiatives have heightened domestic risks. Sound institutions, growth-friendly policies, and structural reforms are critical to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth.

Abstract

Poland continued its convergence to average EU income levels, growing well above most of its peers. Yet, significant regional disparities and long-term structural challenges remain. The new government, which took office in November 2015, has introduced a number of new policies, some of which have dented investor sentiment and could weaken growth going forward. The near-term outlook is for continued expansion with low oil prices weighing on inflation. External risks to the outlook remain elevated and prospects of controversial policy initiatives have heightened domestic risks. Sound institutions, growth-friendly policies, and structural reforms are critical to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth.

Fund Relations

(As of April 30, 2016)

Membership Status: Joined 6/12/1986; Article VIII

General Resources Account:

article image
article image

Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None

Latest Financial Arrangements:

In Millions of SDR

article image

Projected Payments to Fund (SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

article image

Exchange Arrangements:

The zloty is freely floating.

Poland accepted the obligation of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4 on June 1, 1995. Poland maintains an exchange system free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, except for the exchange restrictions imposed by Poland solely for the preservation of national or international security as introduced by the European Union (EU) within the framework of the Common Foreign and Security Policy. The consolidated list of such sanctions is available at: http://eeas.europa.eu/cfsp/sanctions/consol-list/index en.htm.

Article IV Consultation:

The last Article IV consultation was concluded on July 10, 2015. In concluding the consultation, Directors welcomed Poland’s recovery from the 2012–13 slowdown, supported by very strong economic fundamentals and policies, which paved the way for continued robust growth and further integration with European and global markets. They added that Poland’s strong policy framework has increased the economy’s resilience but observed that downside risks to the outlook remain. Directors noted that the precautionary FCL arrangement continued to provide important temporary insurance against external risks. On monetary policy, Directors welcomed the March policy interest rate cut, which should help limit the risk of prolonged low inflation and agreed that there could be a need to ease monetary policy further if inflation expectations continue to disappoint. Directors recommended moderate reserve accumulation to strengthen the resilience to shocks. With respect to the financial sector, Directors commended the continued strong performance of the banking sector and welcomed the new bankruptcy and insolvency law and encouraged the authorities to expedite implementation of other key financial sector reforms, including the adoption of comprehensive macroprudential and bank resolution frameworks. They supported the authorities’ case-by-case approach to restructuring distressed Swiss franc-denominated mortgages. On fiscal policy, Directors considered that continued gradual consolidation would create additional policy space to allow for a timely and effective response to shocks without unduly weighing on growth. In this regard, they agreed that the medium-term objective of a structural deficit of 1 percent of GDP remained appropriate, and encouraged the authorities to identify specific expenditure savings and reduce the large VAT revenue gap to ensure that this objective be met. Directors commended that continued efforts to raise spending efficiency and reform of the special pension schemes would help address fiscal pressures from population aging. Directors encouraged the authorities to continue to implement structural reforms to boost productivity, safeguard competitiveness, and allow the economy to move up the value-added chain, thereby facilitating income convergence.

Resident Representative:

Mr. Bas Bakker replaced Mr. James Roaf as the Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe, effective August 4, 2015.

Republic of Poland: Technical Assistance from the Fund, 1992–2016

article image
article image
article image

Statistical Issues

Poland—Statistical Issues Appendix

(As of March 2016)

I. Assessment of Data Adequacy for Surveillance

General: Data provision is adequate for surveillance.

National Accounts: The Central Statistical Office (GUS) compiles and disseminates annual and quarterly GDP by production and expenditure approaches, both at current and previous year’s prices following the 2008 SNA and ESA 2010. A supply and use table is only available for the year 2010. Quarterly financial accounts of general government sector are compiled by the Central Statistical Office (GUS). Annual and quarterly financial accounts by institutional sectors are compiled by Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) following the ESA 2010 standards and disseminated regularly on its website according to an advance release calendar: the annual financial accounts on the 20th of October the following year and quarterly financial accounts on the 20th calendar day of the 4th month following the end of the reference quarter (i.e., on the 20th of January, April, July, and October).

Price Statistics: The consumer price index does not cover imputed rents of owner-occupied dwellings. The scope of the index covers all resident households, except those in some rural areas. The producer price index does not include any estimation for missing prices; quality and seasonal adjustment techniques are also not implemented.

Government Finance Statistics: The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is responsible for compiling monthly data. The data are compiled in accordance with the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001). Monthly cash data cover “core” central government. Revenue and expense are divided by economic type. Financing is classified by sector and by type of debt instrument.

Starting in 2015 (annual data for 2014), GUS is responsible for collecting, processing, and disseminating annual government finance statistics. The data are compiled according to European System of Accounts (ESA2010) and adjusted to GFS Manual 2014. The annual reports cover presentation of fiscal data on operations of the general government sector divided by central government, local government, and social security funds. Revenue and expense are divided by transactions. Financing is classified by sector and by type of debt instrument. General government data are released on a quarterly basis, derived from detailed ESA data. Monthly and annual data are regularly disseminated on the SDDS website. Data for 2013 were prepared by the Ministry of Finance according to GFS2001, while data for 2014 were prepared by the Central Statistical Office according to GFSM2014.

article image

Republic of Poland: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance–as of May 31, 2016

article image

Any reserve assets that are pledged of otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); Not Available (NA).

Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC published on November 6, 2001, and based on the findings of the respective missions that took place during May 10–18, 2001 for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. For fiscal data, also takes account of the 2009 Fiscal Transparency ROSC. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O), largely observed (LO), largely not observed (LNO), or not observed (NO).

Same as footnote 7, except referring to international standards concerning (respectively) source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation, and revision studies.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.