Christiansen, L., Lin, H., Pereira, J., Topalova, P., and R. Turk, 2016a, “Unlocking Female Employment Potential in Europe: Drivers and Benefits”, IMF, European Departmental Paper 16/1
Christiansen, L., Lin, H., Pereira, J., Topalova, P., and R. Turk, 2016b, “Individual choice or Policies? Drivers of Female Employment in Europe”, IMF Working Paper WP/16/49
Duval, R., and D. Furceri, 2016, “Time for a Supply Boost, Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies”, IMF April 2016 World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3
Karam, P., Muir, D., Pereira, J., and A. Tuladhar, 2010, “The Macroeconomic Implications of Public Pension Reforms”, IMF Working Paper WP/10/297
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Prepared by Jean-Marc Natal and Joana Pereira (all EUR). The authors would like to thank Dirk Muir (RES) for precious help with model simulations, and Benjamin Carton (RES) for very useful discussions. The chapter also benefitted from valuable comments by seminar participants at the Bundesbank.
For a more in depth analysis of structural reforms, see Chapter 3 of the April 2016 WEO, “Time for a Supply Boost, Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies”.
See “Fourth Sustainability Report on the Sustainability of Public Finances”, 2016.
A recent cabinet agreement was reached to remove disincentives to remain in employment after retirement age, in particular the deduction of earnings from pensions for those who can retire at age 63 but choose to work longer, and the ineligibility to further pension increases from further pension contributions.
GIMF does not differentiate between extensive and intensive margins in labor supply.
For instance, the average effective retirement age was estimated at 66.1 in Switzerland vs. 62.7 in Germany in 2014, while life expectancy is only 2 years higher in Switzerland.
Alternatively, the reader may interpret the experiment as mimicking an increase in the statutory retirement age of more than one year, but with reduced participation in the additional years, so that the effective retirement age rises by 1 year.
Caldera, Aida and Asa Johansson (2013), “The Price Responsiveness of housing Supply in OECD Countries”, Journal of Housing Economics, 22, 231–249.
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Gattini, Luca, and Ioannis Ganoulis (2012), “House price responsiveness of housing investments across major European economies”, ECB WP No 1461.
Hug, Leonie, and Jochen Möbert (2016), “Residential Construction: Policy is Contributing Only to a Gradual Reduction in Excess Demand”, Focus Germany, Deutsche Bank Research, April.
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Tobin, James (1969), “A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 1, No. 1, 15–29.
Voigtländer, Michael, and Tobias Hentze (2015), “Bedeutung der Grunderwerbsteuer für das Wohnungsangebot”, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln paper.
Prepared by Jérôme Vandenbussche (EUR). The chapter benefitted from valuable comments by seminar participants at the Bundesbank.
As discussed in the 2016 Staff Report and the 2014 Selected Issues Paper “Recent Housing Market Developments”, demand for housing has also been stimulated in recent years by increasing disposable income, a strong labor market, declining interest rates, and greater interest of international investors, while mortgage lending standards have remained stable.
Residential investment captures investment not only in new buildings but also in existing buildings (e.g. renovations, or extensions). Investment in existing buildings should also follow the logic of Tobin’s Q. Data on residential investment in new dwellings is only available at the annual frequency, so we can’t analyze separately the two types of residential investment in our econometric framework.
According to the World Bank’s Doing Business database, it takes 96 days to obtain a building permit in Germany. This time has been constant over the past 10 years.
The nominal long-term lending rate series starts in 2003q1. We extend it backward by assuming a constant spread between the lending rate and the 10-year nominal Bund yield, which we source from the OECD.
The decline of the LR elasticity is monotonic. Therefore the fact that data for two large German states are included in the housing price index series from 2015 only cannot cast a doubt on our main result.