This paper provides an assessment of the economic conditions, outlook, and crises in Iceland. There is a mounting sense that capital controls hurt growth prospects, repressing local financial markets, scaring foreign investors, and impeding savings diversification, and that it is time for them to go. Recent settlements with the bank estates are a huge step forward, improving already favorable macroeconomic conditions. At 4 percent in 2015 and gaining pace, real GDP expansion is among the fastest growing in Europe, opening up a positive output gap. However, the biggest risk for Iceland is overheating. Large wage awards on top of already hot economic readings speak to Iceland's boom-bust history.

Abstract

This paper provides an assessment of the economic conditions, outlook, and crises in Iceland. There is a mounting sense that capital controls hurt growth prospects, repressing local financial markets, scaring foreign investors, and impeding savings diversification, and that it is time for them to go. Recent settlements with the bank estates are a huge step forward, improving already favorable macroeconomic conditions. At 4 percent in 2015 and gaining pace, real GDP expansion is among the fastest growing in Europe, opening up a positive output gap. However, the biggest risk for Iceland is overheating. Large wage awards on top of already hot economic readings speak to Iceland's boom-bust history.

Fund Relations

(As of April 30, 2016)

Membership Status: Joined December 27, 1945

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None.

Latest Financial Arrangements:

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Projected Payments to the Fund 1 (SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs): None.

Implementation of HIPC Initiative: Not applicable.

Implementation of Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI): Not applicable.

Implementation of Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief (PCDR): Not applicable.

Exchange Rate Arrangement and Exchange Restrictions:

The de jure exchange rate arrangement is free floating. In 2015, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) continued to follow the strategy of increased foreign exchange market intervention as set forth by the Monetary Policy Committee in May 2013. CBI transactions accounted for about 55 percent of total market turnover in 2015, up from 43 percent in 2014, and total turnover increased by around 80 percent y/y. The objective of the intervention strategy is to mitigate short-term exchange rate volatility and expand the CBI’s reserves as much as conditions allow. Exchange rate volatility diminished significantly after the strategy was announced. The de facto exchange rate arrangement is classified as a floating arrangement. The CBI publishes monthly data on its interventions in the foreign exchange market. Iceland has accepted the obligations under Article VIII, Sections 2(a), 3, and 4 but maintains exchange restrictions arising from limitations imposed on the conversion and transfer of (i) interest on bonds whose transfer the foreign exchange rules apportion depending on the period of the holding, (ii) amortized principal on bonds, and (iii) the indexed portion of principal on bonds. The retention of the three exchange restrictions was last approved by the Executive Board on March 3, 2016 (Decision No. 15957-(16/19)). Iceland also has in place measures that constitute exchange restrictions imposed for security reasons based on UN Security Council Resolutions.

Safeguards Assessment:

The 2009 Safeguards Assessment concluded that the overall control environment for the CBI was broadly appropriate for a small central bank, with good controls in the areas of accounting and financial reporting. The CBI’s external and internal audit procedures were not found to be in line with international practices, however, and the assessment noted that the foreign reserves management area would benefit from further development. The authorities have since taken steps to implement the recommendations, notably by appointing an international audit firm to conduct annual external audits of the CBI in line with international standards, establishing an internal audit function, and appointing a Chief Audit Executive per the board approved charter. New reserve management guidelines were approved in 2012. Work on the remaining recommendation—amendments to the Central Bank Act—remains in progress.

Last Article IV Consultation:

Discussions for the 2014 Article IV Consultation were held in Reykjavik during December 8–18, 2014. The Staff Report (Country Report No. 15/72) was considered by the Executive Board on March 9, 2015. Article IV consultations with Iceland are currently held on a 12 month cycle.

Technical Assistance:

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Statistical Issues

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Iceland: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of June 3, 2016)

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).

These columns should only be included for countries for which Data ROSC (or a Substantive Update) has been published.

This reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC or the Substantive Update (published in November 2005) for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO); largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).

Same as footnote 7, except referring to international standards concerning (respectively) source data, assessment of source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs, and revision studies.

1

When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.