Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe: Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria—Informational Annex

Context: S�o Tom� and Pr�ncipe's economic development is constrained by its insularity, fragility, limited resources, and low capacity as a small island state. GDP growth has averaged over 4 percent per year since 2012, faster than many small island states. Inflation has also fallen sharply from 28 percent down to about 4 percent, the lowest in the past two decades. These developments notwithstanding, growth has not been sufficiently strong and diversified to meaningfully improve economic prospects and reduce poverty significantly. The poverty rate is high at 66 percent. Focus: Discussions centered on aligning fiscal policy to bring debt to a downward trajectory toward a moderate risk of debt distress; addressing the liquidity overhang to enhance monetary management; improving competitiveness; and safeguarding financial sector stability to support growth. S�o Tom� and Pr�ncipe is participating in the second round pilot of countries to mainstream macro-financial linkages.

Abstract

Context: S�o Tom� and Pr�ncipe's economic development is constrained by its insularity, fragility, limited resources, and low capacity as a small island state. GDP growth has averaged over 4 percent per year since 2012, faster than many small island states. Inflation has also fallen sharply from 28 percent down to about 4 percent, the lowest in the past two decades. These developments notwithstanding, growth has not been sufficiently strong and diversified to meaningfully improve economic prospects and reduce poverty significantly. The poverty rate is high at 66 percent. Focus: Discussions centered on aligning fiscal policy to bring debt to a downward trajectory toward a moderate risk of debt distress; addressing the liquidity overhang to enhance monetary management; improving competitiveness; and safeguarding financial sector stability to support growth. S�o Tom� and Pr�ncipe is participating in the second round pilot of countries to mainstream macro-financial linkages.

Relations With the Fund

(As of March 31, 2016)

Membership Status

Joined: September 30, 1977; Article XIV

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans:

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Latest Financial Arrangements:

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Formerly PRGF.

Projected Payments to Fund 2

(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.

Implementation of HIPC Initiative:

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Assistance committed under the original framework is expressed in net present value (NPV) terms at the completion point, and assistance committed under the enhanced framework is expressed in NPV terms at the decision point. Hence these two amounts cannot be added.

Under the enhanced framework, an additional disbursement is made corresponding to interest income earned on the amount of HIPC assistance committed but not disbursed.

Implementation of Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI):

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The MDRI provides 100 percent debt relief to eligible member countries that qualified for the assistance. Grant assistance from the MDRI Trust and HIPC resources provide debt relief to cover the full stock of debt owed to the Fund as of end-2004 that remains outstanding at the time the member qualifies for such debt relief.

Safeguards Assessments:

The recent update of safeguards assessment found that severe capacity constraints have contributed to a weak safeguards framework at the BCSTP. In particular, safeguards relating to independent oversight on audit, financial reporting, and control mechanisms need strengthening. In addition, the BCSTP’s legal framework will need to be revised to align it with leading practices for central banks. While external audits conducted by a reputable audit firm continue to serve as a critical safeguard, ongoing institutional development will be needed to strengthen capacity and bolster the safeguards framework. Further, the engagement of the Audit Board with revised roles and responsibilities will be needed for better oversight.

Exchange Arrangements:

The de jure and de facto exchange rate arrangement is a conventional peg against the euro. Since January 2010 São Tomé and Príncipe has pegged the dobra to the euro at a rate of dobra 24,500 per euro. The organic law of the BCSTP authorizes it to make decisions regarding exchange rate policy. The commission on foreign exchange sales cannot be higher than 2 percent for the euro and 4 percent for other currencies. Purchases of euro must be done at the rate published by the BCSTP and no commissions are allowed. The official euro–U.S. dollar cross rate is based on the European Central Bank (ECB) reference rate of the previous day. The BCSTP finances current international transactions at the official exchange rate only after verification of the documentation establishing the bona fide nature of the bank’s request. Access to foreign exchange is limited to institutions having a net position in the transaction currency of less than 12 percent of qualified capital, a net position in total foreign currency less than 25 percent of qualified capital, and which are in compliance with the central bank’s regulations on bank liquidity and capital adequacy. Financial institutions are allowed access to the central bank’s facilities regardless of the above conditions if the foreign exchange is to be used for importation of goods and services in periods of crisis or for the importation of fuel. Commercial banks that meet these requirements can buy foreign exchange directly from the central bank, which can charge up to 1.5 percent commission on sales of euro and up to a 0.5 percent commission on purchases of euro. The buying rate is mainly indicative because the BCSTP rarely makes purchases. The current exchange rate system has effectively eliminated the multiple currency practice related to the existence of numerous exchange rate markets with differing exchange rates for spot transactions that existed in previous years.

São Tomé and Príncipe continue to avail itself of the transitional arrangements under Article XIV, but it does not maintain restrictions under Article XIV. However, it maintains one measure subject to Fund approval under Article VIII: an exchange restriction arising from Article 3(i) and Article 10.1(b) of the Investment Code (Law No. 7/2008) regarding limitations on the transferability of net income from investment. The restriction results from the requirement that taxes and other obligations to the government have to be paid/full-filled as a condition for transfer, to the extent the requirement includes the payment of taxes and the fulfillment of obligations unrelated to the net income to be transferred.

Article IV Consultation:

The Executive Board concluded the last Article IV consultation with São Tomé and Príncipe on December 13, 2013.

Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), Reports on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSCs), and Offshore Financial Center (OFC) Assessments:

None.

Resident Representative:

The Fund has not had a Resident Representative office in São Tomé and Príncipe since October 2006.

Technical Assistance:

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Relations With the World Bank Group

Joint Managerial Action Plan (JMAP) for São Tomé and Príncipe

(As of April, 2016)

1. The IMF and World Bank São Tomé and Príncipe teams held regular meetings to discuss their respective work programs and macro critical structural reforms for São Tomé and Príncipe. The two institutions’ teams met in the context of the preparations for the current ECF-supported program that discusses policies and financing during the prospective program period 2015–18, and for the prospective financial sector development plan (a World Bank initiative).

2. The World Bank’s work program is guided by a Country Assistance Strategy for the fiscal years 2014 to 2018 approved in 2014 that focuses on supporting growth and job creation through two broad themes: macroeconomic stability and national competitiveness, and reducing vulnerability and strengthening human capacity. Gender, partnership, and capacity building are elements that cut across all the proposed engagements. A Debt Management and Performance Assessment (DeMPA) report was completed in October 2011, and an accompanying reform plan to improve debt management was completed in March 2012. The Bank has suggested the government to formally ask for a follow-up DeMPA mission.

3. The IMF’s work program includes the Executive Board’s consideration of the second review under the ECF-supported program, together with the 2013 Article IV consultation, a staff visit in February 2015, mission in April 2015 to negotiate a new ECF-supported program, and assistances with capacity development in the areas of public financial management, revenue administration, statistics, monetary liquidity management, and banking supervision.

4. The Bank and the Fund are providing complementary support to help São Tomé and Príncipe strengthen public financial management and make progress toward debt sustainability. Regarding the latter, the teams prepared a Joint IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) update in 2014, and a new update has recently been prepared to accompany the new ECF-supported program request.

Work Program for Period 2016–17

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Relations With the African Development Bank Group

(As of May, 2016)

1. São Tomé and Príncipe (STP) became a member of the African Development Bank Group (AfDB) in 1976. To date, the AfDB has financed 40 operations in the country. This comprises of 30 projects, including institutional support, and 10 studies, for a total net commitment of UA 134 million under the African Development Fund (ADF) (98.9 percent), and one special support operation of UA 1 million under the Nigeria Trust Fund (NTF). The vast majority of these operations (94 percent) were financed through loans with the remaining 6 percent through grants.

2. As of May 31, 2016, the AfDB’s ongoing portfolio comprised of six active projects for a total commitment of UA 26.2 million. These are: the Infrastructure Rehabilitation for Food Security (PRIASA I); Infrastructure Rehabilitation for Food Security (PRIASA II); the Public Finance Management Project (PAGEF); the National Planning Scheme study; the Study on Water Supply and Sanitation Programme Rural; the Trade Facilitation project (second phase of ASYCUDA); (Table 1). The portfolio is relatively young. The average age of the ongoing portfolio is 3 years against 5.4 years recorded in 2011. Such improvement is mainly linked to new projects approved in the first quarter of 2013 and 2015. The portfolio’s average disbursement rate stands at 25.8 percent lower than 29.3 percent reported in the last portfolio review conducted in 2014. In terms of sector distribution, agriculture contributes a substantial proportion, representing 71 percent of the total value of the portfolio, followed by multi-sector (26 percent) and water and sanitation (3 percent). There is no ongoing private sector or multinational projects.

Table 1.

AfDB Ongoing Projects (Millions of UA)

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3. The AfDB current involvement in STP is guided by the Country Strategy Paper (CSP) 2012–16, approved in July 2012. The CSP’s main objective is to prepare the authorities for the forthcoming oil production era and the associated challenges and risks to the country’s socioeconomic development. A mid-term review of the strategy was concluded in 2014. During the review process the AfDB and the government agreed to add a second pillar in order to respond to the country’s development needs. Therefore, the AfDB’s strategy focuses on Pillar I- Strengthening Governance; and Pillar II- Promotion of Agriculture Infrastructure. Both pillars are consistent with the authorities’ priorities as well as with the AfDB’s priorities outlined in the 2013–2022 strategy for the continent. More specifically, the strategy aims at improving the capacity of key public administration institutions, including human resource development, country systems, and strategic legal and regulatory frameworks by the time the oil era begins. In addition, it will also help to address the issues of food security, job creation, transformation of local products and global value chains.

4. As part of its strategy and knowledge products, the AfDB also envisages to undertake the following economic and sector works: (i) the study on agriculture transformation; (ii) the study on national planning scheme; and (iii) the study on accreditation of the agriculture research and investigation centre (CIAT). In addition, the AfDB also concluded the private sector strategy 2015–2024 for STP. Within the context of its project, the AfDB will also undertake the following studies; (i) study on the accreditation of the Technology and Agronomic Centre (CIAT); (ii) study on the cartography and selectivity of energy including network protection of EMAE-Electricity and Water Company). STP reached the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) decision and completion points in 2000 and 2007, respectively. To this effect, the country became eligible for the MDRI with an estimated US$99.56 million in debt service according to the terms of the MDRI. The AfDB’s total assistance under HIPC and MDRI amounted to US$187.92 million in debt relief. At the end of December 2008, the AfDB provided US$13.33 million in debt relief under HIPC and US$99 million under MDRI.

Statistical Issues

(As of April, 2016)

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Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of April 30,2016)

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Includes reserve asset pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Central bank’s reference rate.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra-budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); not available (NA).

Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe: 2016 Article IV Consultation, First Review under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Exective Director for the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.