Front Matter

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IMF Country Report No. 16/147

CÔTE D’IVOIRE

2016 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR CÔTE D’IVOIRE

June 2016

In the context of the 2016 Article IV Consultation, the following documents have been released and are included in this package:

  • A Press Release summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its May 25, 2016 consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IV consultation with Côte d’Ivoire.

  • The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on May 25, 2016 following discussions that ended on March 25, 2016, with the officials of Côte d’Ivoire on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on May 10, 2016.

  • An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff.

  • A Statement by the Executive Director for Côte d’Ivoire.

The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents.

Copies of this report are available to the public from

International Monetary Fund • Publication Services

PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090

Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201

E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org

Price: $18.00 per printed copy

© 2016 International Monetary Fund

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CÔTE D’IVOIRE

STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2016 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION

May 10, 2016

Key Issues

Economic performance has been impressive over the past 4 years, but challenges remain. Political normalization, together with supportive fiscal policy and structural reforms to improve the business climate enabled a strong pickup in economic activity. Growth has been accompanied by a modest decline in poverty, but other human development indicators have been slow to improve.

The authorities recently adopted a 2016–20 National Development Plan (NDP) that aims to achieve sustained, strong and inclusive growth. Under the NDP, the private sector would play a major role, supported by a continued expansion in public infrastructure and further structural reforms to improve the business climate. Successful NDP implementation will depend on the pace at which structural bottlenecks are tackled and productivity-enhancing reforms are carried out, as well as on financing conditions and how domestic and external risks are addressed.

The medium-term outlook is positive, but a number of external and domestic downside risks could hamper implementation of the NDP. The macro-financial risks stemming from potential contingent liabilities in the public sector and vulnerabilities in the financial sector, together with headwinds from increased global risks, could adversely affect Côte d’Ivoire’s economic outlook.1

Discussions focused on policies to achieve the NDP objectives and reduce the adverse impact of potential headwinds and risks: (i) supply-side reforms to support structural transformation by further improving productivity; (ii) supportive medium-term policies that allows for building buffers to provide scope for counter-cyclical policy and to meet potential costs of contingent liabilities; (iii) actions to enhance the stability of the financial sector and promote financial inclusion; and (iv) strengthening public finance management to better control and manage fiscal contingent liabilities. Key policy elements for building policy buffers include: mobilizing higher domestic revenues, targeting a slower pace of public investment scaling up in line with absorption capacity, managing debt prudently, and replenishing bank capital.

Efforts to improve economic data should continue. In line with the growing role of the private sector and foreign investment and financing, there is a need to upgrade the production and publication of quality economic data.

Approved By

Abebe Aemro Selassie and Peter Allum

The discussions took place during February 29-March 15, 2016 in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. IMF team: D. Ghura (head), M. Koulet-Vickot, C. Macario, T. Willems (all AFR), L. Dicks-Mireaux (SPR), R. Veyrune (MCM), B. Wiest (FAD), A. Feler (IMF resident representative), A. Coulibaly (local office economist). Messrs. Alle (OED) and Ba (World Bank) participated in the discussions.

Contents

  • Glossary

  • CONTEXT AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

  • A. Context

  • B. Recent Developments

  • MEDIUM-TERM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RISKS

  • POLICY DISCUSSIONS

  • A. Structural Transformation and Growth

  • B. Preserving Fiscal Sustainability

  • C. Enhancing Banking Sector Stability and Financial Inclusion

  • OTHER ISSUES

  • STAFF APPRAISAL

  • BOX

  • 1. Public Private Partnership: Opportunities and Risks

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Real and External Sectors, 2010–15

  • 2. Fiscal Developments, 2010–15

  • 3. Medium Term Outlook, 2013–20

  • TABLES

  • 1. Selected Economic Indicators, 2012–20

  • 2. Balance of Payments, 2012–20

  • 3a. Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2012–20 (Billions of CFA francs)

  • 3b. Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2012–20 (Percent of GDP)

  • 4. Monetary Survey, 2012–20

  • 5. Millennium Development Goals

  • ANNEXES

  • I. Dimensions of Poverty

  • II. Status of the 2013 Article IV Main Recommendations

  • III. Lessons from Recent Program Engagement

  • IV. External Stability Assessment

  • V. Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM)

  • VI. Technical Assistance Priorities

Glossary

AFRITAC

African Regional Technical Assistance Center

BCEAO

Central Bank of West African States

CAR

Capital Adequacy Ratio

CFAF

African Financial Community Franc

CNCE

Postal Savings Bank

CNDP

National Committee on Public Debt

DSA

Debt Sustainability Analysis

EBA

External Balance Assessment

ECF

Extended Credit Facility

FAD

Fiscal Affairs Department

GCI

Global Competiveness Index

GDDS

General Data Dissemination System

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GFSM

Government Finance Statistics Manual

HIPC

Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries

IIAG

Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance

IT

Indicative Target

LIC

Low Income Country

MDG

Millennium Development Goal

MDRI

Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative

MTDS

Medium-Term Debt Management Strategies

NDP

National Development Plan

NIS

National Institute of Statistics

NPL

Non-Performing Loan

PC

Performance Criterion

PETROCI

Government-Owned Petroleum Company

PFM

Public Financial Management

PNIA

National Agricultural Investment Program

PPP

Public Private Partnership

PRGF

Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility

SME

Small and medium-size enterprise

SNA

System of National Accounts

SSA

Sub-Saharan Africa

SIR

National oil refinery

TA

Technical Assistance

UEMOA

West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)

VAT

Value-Added Tax

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CÔTE D’IVOIRE

STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2016 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—INFORMATIONAL ANNEX

May 10, 201 6

Prepared By

African Department

“In Consultation with other Departments”

Contents

  • RELATIONS WITH THE FUND

  • JOINT BANK-FUND WORK PROGRAM, 2015–16

  • AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP OPERATIONS AND STRATEGY IN CÔTE D’IVOIRE

  • STATISTICAL ISSUES

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Press Release No. 16/252

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

May 25, 2016

International Monetary Fund

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Washington, D. C. 20431 USA

Telephone 202-623-7100

Fax 202-623-6772

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