Abstract
Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. The arrangement was approved on June 26, 2014 and the third review completed on November 25, 2015. Disbursements equivalent to SDR 8.04 million (about US$11.5 million) have been made to Grenada so far under the arrangement and the equivalent of SDR 2 million (about US$2.9 million) will be made available upon Executive Board completion of the fourth review. Debt Restructuring. Grenada's comprehensive public debt restructuring is nearing completion. The debt exchange with Grenada's largest private creditor group was implemented and an agreement reached with Paris Club creditors. The authorities have also made important progress restructuring domestic debt.
While prospects for a restoration of external debt sustainability have improved significantly, Grenada’s external debt remains in distress absent completion of the broader debt restructuring and clearance of arrears to all official creditors. The comprehensive restructuring of Grenada’s public debt is nearing completion. Agreements have been implemented with creditors representing over two thirds of total debt under negotiation. Combined, the agreements to date are expected to reduce public debt by about 15 percent of GDP by 2018 and will also provide cash flow relief. Significant progress has been made to clear arrears, with all budget expenditure arrears cleared by end-2015 and three fourths of arrears to external creditors regularized. This marks a critical milestone toward restoring liquidity to the domestic economy, entrenching the economic recovery underway and regularizing financial relations with external creditors. Nevertheless, completion of the debt restructuring and continued fiscal discipline will be needed to keep debt on a downward path and restore its sustainability.
Recent Debt Developments
1. This annex provides an updated Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) of Grenada’s public debt. The DSA incorporates all debt restructuring agreements executed with external and domestic creditors as of 2016Q1 (table) as well as the agreement in principle reached in November 2015 with Paris Club bilateral creditors to reschedule outstanding Paris Club debts and arrears. 1 2 The baseline scenario does not assume any additional debt restructuring on other debt (external or domestic) under restructuring negotiations. Compared to the previous DSA, the short-run economic outlook has improved. Activity remains strong, driven by tourism and construction and underpinned by stronger than anticipated activity in 2015. Growth is revised upward compared to the forecast in the Third Review reflecting the expected positive impulse from the further oil price decline as well as steady growth in key tourism export markets. In the medium-term, growth is assumed to return to its potential of 2.7 percent, which has been revised upward from 2.5 percent in the previous DSA. Price inflation has stayed slightly negative as energy prices remain low while unemployment is high at 30 percent. The external position continues to strengthen owing to strong tourism receipts, lower oil prices and robust private capital inflows.3
Grenada: Debt Restructuring Agreements Executed
Grenada: Debt Restructuring Agreements Executed
| National Insurance Scheme | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Export-Import Bank of Taiwan Province of China | US$ and EC$ 2025 bonds | EC$2025 bond | 2014/16 Serial Bond | Treasury Bill | Contribution arrears | |
| Coupon | 7% p.a. | 7% p.a. | 3% p.a. | 3% p.a. | 3% p.a. | 3% p.a. |
| Tenor | 15 years | 15 years | 25 years | 25 years | 7 years | 5 years |
| Grace Period | 3.5 years | 0.5 years | 10 years | 10 years | 2 years | 0 |
| Repayment | Equal semiannual installments | Equal semiannual installments | Mortgage style semiannual installments | Mortgage style semiannual installments | Equal semiannual installments | Equal quarterly installments |
| Principal Reduction | 50% at closing | 50% at closing and 50% at completion of ECF-supported program | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Past Due and Accrued Interest | 50% reduction, remainder capitalized | 100% capitalized | 100% capitalized | 100% capitalized | 100% capitalized | n.a. |
| Memo: | ||||||
| NPV Haircut (12% exit yield) | 59% | 54% | 73% | 73% | 31% | 19% |
| NPV Haircut (5% exit yield) | 39% | 32% | 52% | 52% | 8% | 4% |
Grenada: Debt Restructuring Agreements Executed
| National Insurance Scheme | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Export-Import Bank of Taiwan Province of China | US$ and EC$ 2025 bonds | EC$2025 bond | 2014/16 Serial Bond | Treasury Bill | Contribution arrears | |
| Coupon | 7% p.a. | 7% p.a. | 3% p.a. | 3% p.a. | 3% p.a. | 3% p.a. |
| Tenor | 15 years | 15 years | 25 years | 25 years | 7 years | 5 years |
| Grace Period | 3.5 years | 0.5 years | 10 years | 10 years | 2 years | 0 |
| Repayment | Equal semiannual installments | Equal semiannual installments | Mortgage style semiannual installments | Mortgage style semiannual installments | Equal semiannual installments | Equal quarterly installments |
| Principal Reduction | 50% at closing | 50% at closing and 50% at completion of ECF-supported program | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Past Due and Accrued Interest | 50% reduction, remainder capitalized | 100% capitalized | 100% capitalized | 100% capitalized | 100% capitalized | n.a. |
| Memo: | ||||||
| NPV Haircut (12% exit yield) | 59% | 54% | 73% | 73% | 31% | 19% |
| NPV Haircut (5% exit yield) | 39% | 32% | 52% | 52% | 8% | 4% |
2. Grenada’s debt restructuring is nearing completion. Restructuring agreements have now been reached with creditors representing about 64 percent of total debt under restructuring negotiations valued at 34 percent of GDP (text figure). As of end-2015, the agreements executed with Grenada’s external creditors have lowered the debt-to-GDP ratio by 8 percentage points and, once the agreement with Grenada’s private bondholders is fully executed, a further 6 percentage point decline is anticipated in 2017.4 Agreements to restructure domestic debt are expected to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio by 1.1 percentage points in 2016. In total, the agreements reached thus far are expected to reduce the debt- to GDP ratio by about 15 percentage points by 2018.5 Important cash flow relief is also anticipated from these agreements as well as those reached with Paris Club bilateral creditors and Grenada’s National Insurance Scheme (NIS). The total reduction in the net present value of public debt as a result of the flow restructuring agreements reached with creditors is estimated at 3 percent of 2015 GDP.6
Central Government Restructurable Debt
(2015Q4, EC$493, or 21% of central government debt)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
Source: Grenada authorities. *EC$36 million of outstanding Treassury bills are listed on the RGSM and are not elligible for restructuring.
Central Government Restructurable Debt
(2015Q4, EC$493, or 21% of central government debt)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
Source: Grenada authorities. *EC$36 million of outstanding Treassury bills are listed on the RGSM and are not elligible for restructuring.Central Government Restructurable Debt
(2015Q4, EC$493, or 21% of central government debt)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
Source: Grenada authorities. *EC$36 million of outstanding Treassury bills are listed on the RGSM and are not elligible for restructuring.3. With the progress achieved on debt restructuring and fiscal consolidation, Grenada’s public debt has continued to decline from its 2013 peak. Public debt declined to 94.3 percent of GDP in 2015 from 101.4 in 2014 after peaking at 107.6 percent in 2013. The reduction in public debt in 2015 was less than anticipated at the third review (4 percent of GDP). This was associated with the authorities’ strategy to clear more domestic arrears with debt issuance rather than cash, as anticipated by staff. This contributed to a build up of government deposits. Public debt is now expected to decline to 73 percent of GDP by 2018, with about 15 percentage points of the total reduction of 35 percent of GDP from the peak in 2013 attributed to debt restructuring. Fiscal consolidation and automatic debt dynamics are expected to account for the remainder of the anticipated reduction (text figure). Completion of the broader debt restructuring with all remaining creditors, as well as completion of the ongoing fiscal consolidation remain essential to restoring debt sustainability and reducing Grenada’s public toward the 55 percent of GDP ceiling as required in Grenada’s Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) of 2015.
Grenada: Public Sector Debt
(in percent of GDP)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
1/ Includes only agreed restructuring.
Grenada: Public Sector Debt
(in percent of GDP)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
1/ Includes only agreed restructuring.Grenada: Public Sector Debt
(in percent of GDP)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
1/ Includes only agreed restructuring.4. The restructuring of Grenada’s debt with its external creditors has reduced the stock of public external debt. Public external debt fell from its peak of 70 percent of GDP in 2013 to 64 percent in 2015 as the debt restructuring with external creditors is completed and fiscal consolidation continues, and is expected to continue to decline to 41 percent of GDP by 2020 (text figure). Nevertheless, the baseline scenario of the DSA finds that the debt thresholds on the present value of the debt-to-GDP, debt service-to-revenue, and debt-to-exports ratios are breached (Figure I).7 These breaches to the thresholds in the baseline scenario are relatively minor and temporary in nature, suggesting that Grenada’s external risk of debt distress is a borderline high-moderate risk case. To complement the baseline scenario analysis and results, the probability approach focusing on the evolution of the probability of debt distress over time, rather than on the evolution of debt burden indicators, was also considered (Figure 2). The results show similar, but accentuated, breaches to the baseline scenario thresholds, which lends support to a high external risk rating for Grenada. However, the ongoing debt restructuring and existence of arrears to official creditors means that Grenada’s external debt remains in distress.
Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2016-36 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2026. In figure b. it corresponds to a One-time depreciation shock; in c. to a Exports shock; in d. to a One-time depreciation shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shock
Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2016-36 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2026. In figure b. it corresponds to a One-time depreciation shock; in c. to a Exports shock; in d. to a One-time depreciation shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shockIndicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2016-36 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2026. In figure b. it corresponds to a One-time depreciation shock; in c. to a Exports shock; in d. to a One-time depreciation shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shock
Probability of Debt Distress of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2016-36 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2026. In figure b. it corresponds to a One-time depreciation shock; in c. to a Exports shock; in d. to a One-time depreciation shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shock
Probability of Debt Distress of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2016-36 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2026. In figure b. it corresponds to a One-time depreciation shock; in c. to a Exports shock; in d. to a One-time depreciation shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shockProbability of Debt Distress of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2016-36 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2026. In figure b. it corresponds to a One-time depreciation shock; in c. to a Exports shock; in d. to a One-time depreciation shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shock
Grenada: Public Sector Debt
(in percent of GDP)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
Grenada: Public Sector Debt
(in percent of GDP)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
Grenada: Public Sector Debt
(in percent of GDP)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
5. The DSA includes a shock scenario to assess the potential impact of a natural disaster on debt sustainability. As a small Caribbean island economy, Grenada is highly vulnerable to natural disasters (i.e. hurricanes). Over 1980-2014 average annual damages from natural disasters in Grenada are estimated at 6.9 percent of GDP. Two particularly damaging hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 (Hurricanes Ivan and Emily) with estimated damages of 148 and 31 percent of GDP, respectively, account for the majority of average annual storm damages over this time period.8 In the shock scenario, a natural disaster is expected to occur in 2016, with the fiscal response calibrated to be consistent with that of the hurricanes experienced in 2004/2005. The government is assumed to increase its expenditure by a total of 5 percent of GDP in the two years following the hurricane (2.5 percentage points in each 2017 and 2018) to cover reconstruction costs following a simulated disaster in 2016. Based on the estimated relationship between growth and natural disasters in the Caribbean and the ECCU (Acevedo, 2014), growth is expected to decline by 0.7 percentage points in 2016, and 1.3 percentage points in 2017.9 The new lower growth path will have an impact on revenues which are expected to decline in line with the decrease in nominal growth, resulting in unchanged revenue to GDP ratio. This shock results in a debt path that is about 8 percent of GDP higher than in the baseline by 2020.
6. Absent completion of all debt restructuring steps and the clearance of arrears to all official creditors, Grenada’s external debt remains “in distress”. Completion of the debt restructuring with private creditors holding the U.S. and EC dollar commercial bonds and with the NIS have put public and external debt on a firm downward trajectory toward sustainability. Execution of the recent Paris Club agreement will further assist in the restoration of debt sustainability. Nevertheless, completion of the broader restructuring with remaining external and domestic creditors remains critical to restoring debt sustainability. Continued efforts to strengthen debt recording and monitoring, including by finalizing the planned medium-term debt strategy, will be important complements to debt restructuring and fiscal consolidation to strengthen debt sustainability.
Public Debt Sustainability Framework, 2013-36
(In percent of GDP)
[Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.]
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Debt relief includes savings from restructuring agreements reached with external and domestic creditors.
Public Debt Sustainability Framework, 2013-36
(In percent of GDP)
| Actual | Average 5/ | Standard 5/ Deviation | Estimate | Projections | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2016-21 Average | 2026 | 2036 | 2022-36 Average | ||||||
| Public sector debt 1/ | 107.6 | 101.4 | 94.3 | 89.2 | 78.8 | 73.2 | 68.3 | 63.6 | 58.9 | 53.5 | 51.0 | |||||||
| of which: foreign-currency denominated | 70.2 | 67.1 | 64.1 | 61.9 | 53.5 | 48.8 | 45.0 | 41.3 | 37.7 | 36.9 | 41.0 | |||||||
| Change in public sector debt | 4.3 | −6.2 | −7.0 | −5.1 | −10.4 | −5.6 | −4.9 | −4.7 | −4.7 | −0.2 | −0.1 | |||||||
| Identified debt-creating flows | 2.0 | −5.4 | −9.8 | −5.0 | −10.4 | −5.6 | −4.9 | −4.8 | −4.7 | −0.3 | −1.2 | |||||||
| Primary deficit | 3.9 | 1.1 | −2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | −3.2 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | |||
| Revenue and grants | 20.9 | 24.5 | 25.6 | 24.6 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | |||||||
| of which: grants | 1.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | |||||||
| Primary (noninterest) expenditure | 24.8 | 25.6 | 23.3 | 21.4 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.1 | 22.0 | 22.1 | 26.5 | 25.7 | |||||||
| Automatic debt dynamics | −1.9 | −4.6 | −0.9 | −0.8 | −1.4 | −1.6 | −1.4 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −1.4 | |||||||
| Contribution from interest rate/growth differential | −1.1 | −4.1 | −1.6 | −0.4 | −0.8 | −1.3 | −1.3 | −1.1 | −1.1 | −1.0 | −1.1 | |||||||
| of which: contribution from average real interest rate | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | |||||||
| of which: contribution from real GDP growth | −2.4 | −5.8 | −4.4 | −2.8 | −2.3 | −2.1 | −1.9 | −1.8 | −1.7 | −1.4 | −1.4 | |||||||
| Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation | −0.8 | −0.5 | 0.7 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | … | … | |||||||
| Other identified debt-creating flows | 0.0 | −1.9 | −6.6 | −1.0 | −5.5 | −0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Privatization receipts (negative) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Debt relief (HIPC and other)6/ | 0.0 | −1.9 | −6.0 | −1.1 | −5.5 | −0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Residual, including asset changes | 2.2 | −0.8 | 2.8 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | −0.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | |||||||
| Other Sustainability Indicators | ||||||||||||||||||
| PV of public sector debt | … | … | 80.1 | 73.1 | 64.4 | 59.6 | 55.3 | 51.1 | 47.1 | 40.4 | 39.5 | |||||||
| of which: foreign-currency denominated | … | … | 49.9 | 45.8 | 39.1 | 35.2 | 31.9 | 28.8 | 25.9 | 23.8 | 29.4 | |||||||
| of which: external | … | … | 49.9 | 45.8 | 39.1 | 35.2 | 31.9 | 28.8 | 25.9 | 23.8 | 29.4 | |||||||
| PV of contingent liabilities (not included in public sector debt) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| Gross financing need 2/ | 7.3 | 22.3 | 17.8 | 19.1 | 16.3 | 16.4 | 16.7 | 16.6 | 16.4 | 16.0 | 9.8 | |||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) | … | … | 313.5 | 296.8 | 253.2 | 233.9 | 216.4 | 200.4 | 184.5 | 158.3 | 154.8 | |||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | … | … | 361.3 | 339.0 | 287.9 | 265.9 | 246.0 | 227.7 | 209.7 | 179.9 | 175.9 | |||||||
| of which: external 3/ | … | … | 225.0 | 212.4 | 174.7 | 157.1 | 142.0 | 128.4 | 115.2 | 106.2 | 131.2 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) 4/ | 15.9 | 86.6 | 78.5 | 90.4 | 77.9 | 77.9 | 78.9 | 78.9 | 77.7 | 59.0 | 37.9 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 4/ | 17.0 | 103.9 | 90.5 | 103.3 | 88.6 | 88.6 | 89.6 | 89.6 | 88.3 | 67.1 | 43.1 | |||||||
| Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio | −0.3 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | |||||||
| Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 2.4 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | |||
| Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | |||
| Average real interest rate on domestic debt (in percent) | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||
| Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation) | −1.3 | −0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | −0.5 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||
| Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) | 9.1 | 9.1 | −4.7 | 1.9 | 5.2 | −5.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 2.9 | −1.1 | 3.9 | |||
| Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 32.2 | 34.8 | 34.5 | 33.2 | 32.5 | 29.7 | 32.8 | 29.7 | 29.7 | … | |||
[Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.]
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Debt relief includes savings from restructuring agreements reached with external and domestic creditors.
Public Debt Sustainability Framework, 2013-36
(In percent of GDP)
| Actual | Average 5/ | Standard 5/ Deviation | Estimate | Projections | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2016-21 Average | 2026 | 2036 | 2022-36 Average | ||||||
| Public sector debt 1/ | 107.6 | 101.4 | 94.3 | 89.2 | 78.8 | 73.2 | 68.3 | 63.6 | 58.9 | 53.5 | 51.0 | |||||||
| of which: foreign-currency denominated | 70.2 | 67.1 | 64.1 | 61.9 | 53.5 | 48.8 | 45.0 | 41.3 | 37.7 | 36.9 | 41.0 | |||||||
| Change in public sector debt | 4.3 | −6.2 | −7.0 | −5.1 | −10.4 | −5.6 | −4.9 | −4.7 | −4.7 | −0.2 | −0.1 | |||||||
| Identified debt-creating flows | 2.0 | −5.4 | −9.8 | −5.0 | −10.4 | −5.6 | −4.9 | −4.8 | −4.7 | −0.3 | −1.2 | |||||||
| Primary deficit | 3.9 | 1.1 | −2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | −3.2 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | |||
| Revenue and grants | 20.9 | 24.5 | 25.6 | 24.6 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | |||||||
| of which: grants | 1.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | |||||||
| Primary (noninterest) expenditure | 24.8 | 25.6 | 23.3 | 21.4 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.1 | 22.0 | 22.1 | 26.5 | 25.7 | |||||||
| Automatic debt dynamics | −1.9 | −4.6 | −0.9 | −0.8 | −1.4 | −1.6 | −1.4 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −1.4 | |||||||
| Contribution from interest rate/growth differential | −1.1 | −4.1 | −1.6 | −0.4 | −0.8 | −1.3 | −1.3 | −1.1 | −1.1 | −1.0 | −1.1 | |||||||
| of which: contribution from average real interest rate | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | |||||||
| of which: contribution from real GDP growth | −2.4 | −5.8 | −4.4 | −2.8 | −2.3 | −2.1 | −1.9 | −1.8 | −1.7 | −1.4 | −1.4 | |||||||
| Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation | −0.8 | −0.5 | 0.7 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | … | … | |||||||
| Other identified debt-creating flows | 0.0 | −1.9 | −6.6 | −1.0 | −5.5 | −0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Privatization receipts (negative) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Debt relief (HIPC and other)6/ | 0.0 | −1.9 | −6.0 | −1.1 | −5.5 | −0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Residual, including asset changes | 2.2 | −0.8 | 2.8 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | −0.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | |||||||
| Other Sustainability Indicators | ||||||||||||||||||
| PV of public sector debt | … | … | 80.1 | 73.1 | 64.4 | 59.6 | 55.3 | 51.1 | 47.1 | 40.4 | 39.5 | |||||||
| of which: foreign-currency denominated | … | … | 49.9 | 45.8 | 39.1 | 35.2 | 31.9 | 28.8 | 25.9 | 23.8 | 29.4 | |||||||
| of which: external | … | … | 49.9 | 45.8 | 39.1 | 35.2 | 31.9 | 28.8 | 25.9 | 23.8 | 29.4 | |||||||
| PV of contingent liabilities (not included in public sector debt) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| Gross financing need 2/ | 7.3 | 22.3 | 17.8 | 19.1 | 16.3 | 16.4 | 16.7 | 16.6 | 16.4 | 16.0 | 9.8 | |||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) | … | … | 313.5 | 296.8 | 253.2 | 233.9 | 216.4 | 200.4 | 184.5 | 158.3 | 154.8 | |||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | … | … | 361.3 | 339.0 | 287.9 | 265.9 | 246.0 | 227.7 | 209.7 | 179.9 | 175.9 | |||||||
| of which: external 3/ | … | … | 225.0 | 212.4 | 174.7 | 157.1 | 142.0 | 128.4 | 115.2 | 106.2 | 131.2 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) 4/ | 15.9 | 86.6 | 78.5 | 90.4 | 77.9 | 77.9 | 78.9 | 78.9 | 77.7 | 59.0 | 37.9 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 4/ | 17.0 | 103.9 | 90.5 | 103.3 | 88.6 | 88.6 | 89.6 | 89.6 | 88.3 | 67.1 | 43.1 | |||||||
| Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio | −0.3 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | |||||||
| Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 2.4 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | |||
| Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | |||
| Average real interest rate on domestic debt (in percent) | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||
| Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation) | −1.3 | −0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | −0.5 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||
| Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) | 9.1 | 9.1 | −4.7 | 1.9 | 5.2 | −5.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 2.9 | −1.1 | 3.9 | |||
| Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 32.2 | 34.8 | 34.5 | 33.2 | 32.5 | 29.7 | 32.8 | 29.7 | 29.7 | … | |||
[Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.]
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Debt relief includes savings from restructuring agreements reached with external and domestic creditors.
External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2013-36
(In percent of GDP)
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2013-36
(In percent of GDP)
| Actual | Historical6/ Average | Standard 6/ Deviation | Projections | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2016-2021 Average | 2026 | 2036 | 2022-2036 Average | ||||||||
| External debt (nominal) 1/ | 144.1 | 144.2 | 140.2 | 136.2 | 125.5 | 119.4 | 114.2 | 109.4 | 104.6 | 98.3 | 92.6 | |||||||||
| of which: public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) | 70.2 | 67.1 | 64.1 | 61.9 | 53.5 | 48.8 | 45.0 | 41.3 | 37.7 | 36.9 | 41.0 | |||||||||
| Change in external debt | 3.2 | 0.1 | −4.0 | −4.1 | −10.6 | −6.1 | −5.2 | −4.8 | −4.8 | −0.4 | −0.5 | |||||||||
| Identified net debt-creating flows | 2.6 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.2 | |||||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit | 21.4 | 13.4 | 11.9 | 19.9 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 13.7 | 14.1 | 14.4 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 14.2 | ||||||
| Deficit in balance of goods and services | 21.9 | 14.6 | 12.7 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 15.1 | 14.6 | 13.2 | |||||||||
| Exports | 28.5 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.8 | 29.7 | 29.8 | 30.0 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 31.0 | 33.2 | |||||||||
| Imports | 50.4 | 43.5 | 41.5 | 39.3 | 42.5 | 43.2 | 44.3 | 44.9 | 45.3 | 45.6 | 46.4 | |||||||||
| Net current transfers (negative = inflow) | −2.2 | −2.9 | −2.4 | −3.5 | 1.0 | −2.3 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −2.3 | −2.3 | −2.1 | −1.7 | −2.0 | ||||||
| of which: official | −0.2 | −1.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.4 | |||||||||
| Other current account flows (negative = net inflow) | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Net FDI (negative = inflow) | −13.4 | −4.4 | −6.9 | −8.9 | 4.7 | −6.4 | −8.1 | −8.1 | −8.7 | −8.7 | −8.7 | −8.7 | −8.7 | −8.7 | ||||||
| Endogenous debt dynamics 2/ | −5.3 | −8.8 | −3.8 | −1.8 | −1.4 | −1.7 | −1.6 | −1.6 | −1.7 | −1.8 | −1.6 | |||||||||
| Contribution from nominal interest rate | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||
| Contribution from real GDP growth | −3.1 | −7.6 | −6.3 | −4.1 | −3.5 | −3.2 | −3.0 | −2.9 | −2.8 | −2.6 | −2.4 | |||||||||
| Contribution from price and exchange rate changes | −4.0 | −3.4 | 0.0 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||||
| Residual (3-4) 3/ | 0.5 | −0.2 | −5.2 | −5.6 | −13.4 | −9.3 | −8.5 | −8.6 | −8.9 | −4.5 | −3.7 | |||||||||
| of which: exceptional financing | −0.7 | −3.4 | −3.2 | −2.6 | −0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| debt restructuring | 0.0 | −1.9 | −5.1 | −0.7 | −4.7 | −0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| capital transfers | −4.9 | −7.5 | −7.1 | −7.7 | −7.7 | −7.7 | ||||||||||||||
| PV of external debt 4/ | … | … | 126.0 | 120.0 | 111.1 | 105.7 | 101.2 | 96.9 | 92.8 | 85.2 | 81.0 | |||||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 436.1 | 417.1 | 374.1 | 354.9 | 337.6 | 322.2 | 307.4 | 274.9 | 244.2 | |||||||||
| PV of PPG external debt | … | … | 49.9 | 45.8 | 39.1 | 35.2 | 31.9 | 28.8 | 25.9 | 23.8 | 29.4 | |||||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 172.7 | 159.1 | 131.6 | 118.1 | 106.5 | 95.8 | 85.7 | 76.9 | 88.7 | |||||||||
| In percent of government revenues | … | … | 225.0 | 212.4 | 174.7 | 157.1 | 142.0 | 128.4 | 115.2 | 106.2 | 131.2 | |||||||||
| Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 6.5 | 12.8 | 16.2 | 19.5 | 16.9 | 15.8 | 14.9 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 8.6 | 6.9 | |||||||||
| PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 5.9 | 12.1 | 15.6 | 18.8 | 16.3 | 15.2 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 6.7 | |||||||||
| PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | 8.6 | 17.2 | 20.3 | 25.2 | 21.6 | 20.3 | 19.1 | 18.0 | 16.8 | 11.3 | 9.9 | |||||||||
| Total gross financing need (Billions of U.S. dollars) | 82.4 | 116.3 | 92.6 | 89.6 | 96.0 | 105.0 | 110.5 | 118.4 | 124.2 | 140.3 | 194.9 | |||||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio | 18.2 | 13.4 | 15.9 | 13.9 | 22.9 | 19.0 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 19.2 | 14.9 | 14.0 | |||||||||
| Key macroeconomic assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 2.4 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | |||||
| GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent) | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||||
| Effective interest rate (percent) 5/ | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |||||
| Growth of exports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 3.8 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.8 | |||||
| Growth of imports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 7.2 | −6.4 | −0.2 | −1.4 | 9.4 | −1.1 | 13.7 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | |||||
| Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 32.2 | 34.8 | 34.5 | 33.2 | 32.5 | 29.7 | 32.8 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 | |||||
| Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP) | 19.5 | 20.4 | 22.2 | 21.5 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.5 | ||||||||
| Aid flows (in Billions of US dollars) 7/ | 11.6 | 37.2 | 32.3 | 50.4 | 41.9 | 41.7 | 43.4 | 45.3 | 39.3 | 50.5 | 83.2 | |||||||||
| of which: Grants | 11.6 | 37.2 | 32.3 | 30.6 | 32.1 | 33.9 | 35.6 | 37.4 | 39.3 | 50.5 | 83.2 | |||||||||
| of which: Concessional loans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.8 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 8/ | … | … | … | 5.8 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | ||||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 8/ | … | … | … | 50.1 | 338.1 | 81.4 | 76.9 | 77.9 | 80.6 | 58.9 | 60.8 | 62.0 | ||||||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (Billions of US dollars) | 842.6 | 911.8 | 953.6 | 997.2 | 1048.4 | 1104.8 | 1162.4 | 1221.5 | 1283.6 | 1646.5 | 2716.8 | |||||||||
| Nominal dollar GDP growth | 5.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | |||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in Billions of US dollars) | 475.9 | 456.4 | 409.5 | 388.7 | 370.9 | 352.3 | 332.1 | 392.6 | 800.1 | |||||||||||
| (PVt-PVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent) | −2.0 | −4.7 | −2.0 | −1.6 | −1.6 | −1.7 | −2.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | ||||||||||
| Gross workers’ remittances (Billions of US dollars) | 30.5 | 31.2 | 31.8 | 32.7 | 34.0 | 35.5 | 40.0 | 44.7 | 49.5 | 60.9 | 92.3 | |||||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in percent of GDP + remittances) | … | … | 48.3 | 44.3 | 37.8 | 34.1 | 30.8 | 27.8 | 24.9 | 23.0 | 28.5 | |||||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittances) | … | … | 154.8 | 142.8 | 118.6 | 106.6 | 95.5 | 85.5 | 76.0 | 68.7 | 80.5 | |||||||||
| Debt service of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittance | … | … | 14.0 | 16.9 | 14.7 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 6.1 | |||||||||
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2013-36
(In percent of GDP)
| Actual | Historical6/ Average | Standard 6/ Deviation | Projections | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2016-2021 Average | 2026 | 2036 | 2022-2036 Average | ||||||||
| External debt (nominal) 1/ | 144.1 | 144.2 | 140.2 | 136.2 | 125.5 | 119.4 | 114.2 | 109.4 | 104.6 | 98.3 | 92.6 | |||||||||
| of which: public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) | 70.2 | 67.1 | 64.1 | 61.9 | 53.5 | 48.8 | 45.0 | 41.3 | 37.7 | 36.9 | 41.0 | |||||||||
| Change in external debt | 3.2 | 0.1 | −4.0 | −4.1 | −10.6 | −6.1 | −5.2 | −4.8 | −4.8 | −0.4 | −0.5 | |||||||||
| Identified net debt-creating flows | 2.6 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.2 | |||||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit | 21.4 | 13.4 | 11.9 | 19.9 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 13.7 | 14.1 | 14.4 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 14.2 | ||||||
| Deficit in balance of goods and services | 21.9 | 14.6 | 12.7 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 15.1 | 14.6 | 13.2 | |||||||||
| Exports | 28.5 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.8 | 29.7 | 29.8 | 30.0 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 31.0 | 33.2 | |||||||||
| Imports | 50.4 | 43.5 | 41.5 | 39.3 | 42.5 | 43.2 | 44.3 | 44.9 | 45.3 | 45.6 | 46.4 | |||||||||
| Net current transfers (negative = inflow) | −2.2 | −2.9 | −2.4 | −3.5 | 1.0 | −2.3 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −2.3 | −2.3 | −2.1 | −1.7 | −2.0 | ||||||
| of which: official | −0.2 | −1.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.4 | |||||||||
| Other current account flows (negative = net inflow) | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Net FDI (negative = inflow) | −13.4 | −4.4 | −6.9 | −8.9 | 4.7 | −6.4 | −8.1 | −8.1 | −8.7 | −8.7 | −8.7 | −8.7 | −8.7 | −8.7 | ||||||
| Endogenous debt dynamics 2/ | −5.3 | −8.8 | −3.8 | −1.8 | −1.4 | −1.7 | −1.6 | −1.6 | −1.7 | −1.8 | −1.6 | |||||||||
| Contribution from nominal interest rate | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||
| Contribution from real GDP growth | −3.1 | −7.6 | −6.3 | −4.1 | −3.5 | −3.2 | −3.0 | −2.9 | −2.8 | −2.6 | −2.4 | |||||||||
| Contribution from price and exchange rate changes | −4.0 | −3.4 | 0.0 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||||
| Residual (3-4) 3/ | 0.5 | −0.2 | −5.2 | −5.6 | −13.4 | −9.3 | −8.5 | −8.6 | −8.9 | −4.5 | −3.7 | |||||||||
| of which: exceptional financing | −0.7 | −3.4 | −3.2 | −2.6 | −0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| debt restructuring | 0.0 | −1.9 | −5.1 | −0.7 | −4.7 | −0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| capital transfers | −4.9 | −7.5 | −7.1 | −7.7 | −7.7 | −7.7 | ||||||||||||||
| PV of external debt 4/ | … | … | 126.0 | 120.0 | 111.1 | 105.7 | 101.2 | 96.9 | 92.8 | 85.2 | 81.0 | |||||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 436.1 | 417.1 | 374.1 | 354.9 | 337.6 | 322.2 | 307.4 | 274.9 | 244.2 | |||||||||
| PV of PPG external debt | … | … | 49.9 | 45.8 | 39.1 | 35.2 | 31.9 | 28.8 | 25.9 | 23.8 | 29.4 | |||||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 172.7 | 159.1 | 131.6 | 118.1 | 106.5 | 95.8 | 85.7 | 76.9 | 88.7 | |||||||||
| In percent of government revenues | … | … | 225.0 | 212.4 | 174.7 | 157.1 | 142.0 | 128.4 | 115.2 | 106.2 | 131.2 | |||||||||
| Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 6.5 | 12.8 | 16.2 | 19.5 | 16.9 | 15.8 | 14.9 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 8.6 | 6.9 | |||||||||
| PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 5.9 | 12.1 | 15.6 | 18.8 | 16.3 | 15.2 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 6.7 | |||||||||
| PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | 8.6 | 17.2 | 20.3 | 25.2 | 21.6 | 20.3 | 19.1 | 18.0 | 16.8 | 11.3 | 9.9 | |||||||||
| Total gross financing need (Billions of U.S. dollars) | 82.4 | 116.3 | 92.6 | 89.6 | 96.0 | 105.0 | 110.5 | 118.4 | 124.2 | 140.3 | 194.9 | |||||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio | 18.2 | 13.4 | 15.9 | 13.9 | 22.9 | 19.0 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 19.2 | 14.9 | 14.0 | |||||||||
| Key macroeconomic assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 2.4 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | |||||
| GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent) | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||||
| Effective interest rate (percent) 5/ | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |||||
| Growth of exports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 3.8 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.8 | |||||
| Growth of imports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 7.2 | −6.4 | −0.2 | −1.4 | 9.4 | −1.1 | 13.7 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | |||||
| Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 32.2 | 34.8 | 34.5 | 33.2 | 32.5 | 29.7 | 32.8 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 | |||||
| Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP) | 19.5 | 20.4 | 22.2 | 21.5 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.5 | ||||||||
| Aid flows (in Billions of US dollars) 7/ | 11.6 | 37.2 | 32.3 | 50.4 | 41.9 | 41.7 | 43.4 | 45.3 | 39.3 | 50.5 | 83.2 | |||||||||
| of which: Grants | 11.6 | 37.2 | 32.3 | 30.6 | 32.1 | 33.9 | 35.6 | 37.4 | 39.3 | 50.5 | 83.2 | |||||||||
| of which: Concessional loans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.8 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 8/ | … | … | … | 5.8 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | ||||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 8/ | … | … | … | 50.1 | 338.1 | 81.4 | 76.9 | 77.9 | 80.6 | 58.9 | 60.8 | 62.0 | ||||||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (Billions of US dollars) | 842.6 | 911.8 | 953.6 | 997.2 | 1048.4 | 1104.8 | 1162.4 | 1221.5 | 1283.6 | 1646.5 | 2716.8 | |||||||||
| Nominal dollar GDP growth | 5.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | |||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in Billions of US dollars) | 475.9 | 456.4 | 409.5 | 388.7 | 370.9 | 352.3 | 332.1 | 392.6 | 800.1 | |||||||||||
| (PVt-PVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent) | −2.0 | −4.7 | −2.0 | −1.6 | −1.6 | −1.7 | −2.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | ||||||||||
| Gross workers’ remittances (Billions of US dollars) | 30.5 | 31.2 | 31.8 | 32.7 | 34.0 | 35.5 | 40.0 | 44.7 | 49.5 | 60.9 | 92.3 | |||||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in percent of GDP + remittances) | … | … | 48.3 | 44.3 | 37.8 | 34.1 | 30.8 | 27.8 | 24.9 | 23.0 | 28.5 | |||||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittances) | … | … | 154.8 | 142.8 | 118.6 | 106.6 | 95.5 | 85.5 | 76.0 | 68.7 | 80.5 | |||||||||
| Debt service of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittance | … | … | 14.0 | 16.9 | 14.7 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 6.1 | |||||||||
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2016-36
(In percent)
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming and offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2016-36
(In percent)
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2026 | 2036 | |
| PV of debt-to GDP ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 46 | 39 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 26 | 24 | 29 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2016-2036 1/ | 46 | 45 | 47 | 49 | 51 | 53 | 71 | 100 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2016-2036 2 | 46 | 39 | 35 | 32 | 30 | 27 | 29 | 42 |
| A3. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 46 | 43 | 39 | 36 | 33 | 30 | 27 | 30 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 46 | 42 | 40 | 36 | 33 | 29 | 27 | 33 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 3/ | 46 | 41 | 41 | 38 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 30 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 46 | 40 | 37 | 34 | 30 | 27 | 25 | 31 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 4/ | 46 | 42 | 40 | 37 | 34 | 31 | 28 | 30 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 46 | 44 | 47 | 43 | 40 | 36 | 33 | 34 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2017 5/ | 46 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 41 | 37 | 34 | 42 |
| PV of debt-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 159 | 132 | 118 | 106 | 96 | 86 | 77 | 89 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2016-2036 1/ | 159 | 152 | 158 | 164 | 169 | 174 | 228 | 300 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2016-2036 2 | 159 | 130 | 118 | 108 | 99 | 89 | 95 | 126 |
| A3. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 159 | 146 | 132 | 120 | 109 | 99 | 86 | 90 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 159 | 132 | 118 | 106 | 96 | 86 | 77 | 89 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 3/ | 159 | 156 | 170 | 155 | 142 | 129 | 113 | 112 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 159 | 132 | 118 | 106 | 96 | 86 | 77 | 89 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 4/ | 159 | 140 | 136 | 124 | 113 | 103 | 90 | 91 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 159 | 152 | 160 | 147 | 134 | 122 | 107 | 105 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2017 5/ | 159 | 132 | 118 | 106 | 96 | 86 | 77 | 89 |
| PV of debt-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 212 | 175 | 157 | 142 | 128 | 115 | 106 | 131 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2016-2036 1/ | 212 | 202 | 210 | 218 | 227 | 234 | 315 | 444 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2016-2036 2 | 212 | 173 | 157 | 144 | 132 | 120 | 131 | 186 |
| A3. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 212 | 193 | 175 | 160 | 146 | 132 | 119 | 134 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 212 | 186 | 177 | 160 | 145 | 130 | 120 | 148 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 3/ | 212 | 185 | 185 | 169 | 155 | 142 | 128 | 136 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 212 | 179 | 166 | 150 | 135 | 122 | 112 | 138 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 4/ | 212 | 187 | 181 | 165 | 151 | 138 | 124 | 135 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 212 | 197 | 210 | 192 | 177 | 162 | 145 | 153 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2017 5/ | 212 | 247 | 222 | 201 | 182 | 163 | 150 | 186 |
| Debt service-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 19 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2016-2036 1/ | 19 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 27 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2016-2036 2 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 9 |
| A3. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 19 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 7 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 3/ | 19 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 9 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 4/ | 19 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 9 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2017 5/ | 19 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 25 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 11 | 10 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2016-2036 1/ | 25 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 40 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2016-2036 2 | 25 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 13 |
| A3. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 25 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 11 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 13 | 11 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 3/ | 25 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 11 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 25 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 12 | 10 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 4/ | 25 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 11 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 25 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 16 | 13 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2017 5/ | 25 | 31 | 29 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 16 | 14 |
| Memorandum item: | ||||||||
| Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/ | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming and offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2016-36
(In percent)
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2026 | 2036 | |
| PV of debt-to GDP ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 46 | 39 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 26 | 24 | 29 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2016-2036 1/ | 46 | 45 | 47 | 49 | 51 | 53 | 71 | 100 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2016-2036 2 | 46 | 39 | 35 | 32 | 30 | 27 | 29 | 42 |
| A3. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 46 | 43 | 39 | 36 | 33 | 30 | 27 | 30 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 46 | 42 | 40 | 36 | 33 | 29 | 27 | 33 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 3/ | 46 | 41 | 41 | 38 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 30 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 46 | 40 | 37 | 34 | 30 | 27 | 25 | 31 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 4/ | 46 | 42 | 40 | 37 | 34 | 31 | 28 | 30 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 46 | 44 | 47 | 43 | 40 | 36 | 33 | 34 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2017 5/ | 46 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 41 | 37 | 34 | 42 |
| PV of debt-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 159 | 132 | 118 | 106 | 96 | 86 | 77 | 89 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2016-2036 1/ | 159 | 152 | 158 | 164 | 169 | 174 | 228 | 300 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2016-2036 2 | 159 | 130 | 118 | 108 | 99 | 89 | 95 | 126 |
| A3. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 159 | 146 | 132 | 120 | 109 | 99 | 86 | 90 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 159 | 132 | 118 | 106 | 96 | 86 | 77 | 89 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 3/ | 159 | 156 | 170 | 155 | 142 | 129 | 113 | 112 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 159 | 132 | 118 | 106 | 96 | 86 | 77 | 89 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 4/ | 159 | 140 | 136 | 124 | 113 | 103 | 90 | 91 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 159 | 152 | 160 | 147 | 134 | 122 | 107 | 105 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2017 5/ | 159 | 132 | 118 | 106 | 96 | 86 | 77 | 89 |
| PV of debt-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 212 | 175 | 157 | 142 | 128 | 115 | 106 | 131 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2016-2036 1/ | 212 | 202 | 210 | 218 | 227 | 234 | 315 | 444 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2016-2036 2 | 212 | 173 | 157 | 144 | 132 | 120 | 131 | 186 |
| A3. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 212 | 193 | 175 | 160 | 146 | 132 | 119 | 134 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 212 | 186 | 177 | 160 | 145 | 130 | 120 | 148 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 3/ | 212 | 185 | 185 | 169 | 155 | 142 | 128 | 136 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 212 | 179 | 166 | 150 | 135 | 122 | 112 | 138 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 4/ | 212 | 187 | 181 | 165 | 151 | 138 | 124 | 135 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 212 | 197 | 210 | 192 | 177 | 162 | 145 | 153 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2017 5/ | 212 | 247 | 222 | 201 | 182 | 163 | 150 | 186 |
| Debt service-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 19 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2016-2036 1/ | 19 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 27 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2016-2036 2 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 9 |
| A3. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 19 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 7 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 3/ | 19 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 9 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 4/ | 19 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 9 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2017 5/ | 19 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 25 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 11 | 10 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2016-2036 1/ | 25 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 40 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2016-2036 2 | 25 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 13 |
| A3. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 25 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 11 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 13 | 11 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 3/ | 25 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 11 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 | 25 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 12 | 10 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2017-2018 4/ | 25 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 11 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 25 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 16 | 13 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2017 5/ | 25 | 31 | 29 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 16 | 14 |
| Memorandum item: | ||||||||
| Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/ | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming and offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2016-36
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2016-36
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2026 | 2036 | |
| PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 73 | 64 | 60 | 55 | 51 | 47 | 40 | 39 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 73 | 70 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 77 | 89 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2016 | 73 | 65 | 60 | 56 | 52 | 48 | 30 | 2 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 73 | 65 | 61 | 58 | 54 | 51 | 52 | 78 |
| A4. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 73 | 69 | 64 | 60 | 56 | 52 | 45 | 43 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2017-2018 | 73 | 70 | 71 | 68 | 65 | 63 | 65 | 80 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2017-2018 | 73 | 70 | 71 | 66 | 61 | 57 | 50 | 47 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 73 | 72 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 64 | 63 | 71 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2017 | 73 | 85 | 79 | 74 | 69 | 64 | 53 | 49 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2017 | 73 | 72 | 67 | 62 | 58 | 54 | 47 | 44 |
| PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 297 | 253 | 234 | 216 | 200 | 185 | 158 | 155 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 297 | 275 | 275 | 277 | 279 | 282 | 294 | 329 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2016 | 297 | 254 | 236 | 219 | 204 | 189 | 116 | 6 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 297 | 256 | 239 | 225 | 213 | 201 | 203 | 299 |
| A4. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 297 | 271 | 253 | 235 | 220 | 204 | 176 | 169 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2017-2018 | 297 | 271 | 273 | 262 | 252 | 242 | 251 | 309 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2017-2018 | 297 | 276 | 278 | 257 | 240 | 224 | 195 | 182 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 297 | 283 | 291 | 275 | 262 | 250 | 244 | 274 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2017 | 297 | 333 | 310 | 289 | 270 | 251 | 208 | 192 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2017 | 297 | 285 | 263 | 244 | 228 | 211 | 183 | 174 |
| Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 90 | 78 | 78 | 79 | 79 | 78 | 59 | 38 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 90 | 79 | 81 | 84 | 86 | 87 | 74 | 63 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2016 | 90 | 78 | 78 | 79 | 79 | 78 | 58 | 30 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 90 | 79 | 79 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 65 | 50 |
| A4. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 90 | 80 | 80 | 82 | 82 | 81 | 62 | 41 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2017-2018 | 90 | 82 | 87 | 88 | 88 | 87 | 68 | 51 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2017-2018 | 90 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 80 | 79 | 62 | 41 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 90 | 81 | 84 | 86 | 86 | 85 | 67 | 48 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2017 | 90 | 82 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 85 | 65 | 46 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2017 | 90 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 80 | 78 | 61 | 40 |
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2016-36
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2026 | 2036 | |
| PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 73 | 64 | 60 | 55 | 51 | 47 | 40 | 39 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 73 | 70 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 77 | 89 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2016 | 73 | 65 | 60 | 56 | 52 | 48 | 30 | 2 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 73 | 65 | 61 | 58 | 54 | 51 | 52 | 78 |
| A4. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 73 | 69 | 64 | 60 | 56 | 52 | 45 | 43 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2017-2018 | 73 | 70 | 71 | 68 | 65 | 63 | 65 | 80 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2017-2018 | 73 | 70 | 71 | 66 | 61 | 57 | 50 | 47 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 73 | 72 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 64 | 63 | 71 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2017 | 73 | 85 | 79 | 74 | 69 | 64 | 53 | 49 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2017 | 73 | 72 | 67 | 62 | 58 | 54 | 47 | 44 |
| PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 297 | 253 | 234 | 216 | 200 | 185 | 158 | 155 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 297 | 275 | 275 | 277 | 279 | 282 | 294 | 329 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2016 | 297 | 254 | 236 | 219 | 204 | 189 | 116 | 6 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 297 | 256 | 239 | 225 | 213 | 201 | 203 | 299 |
| A4. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 297 | 271 | 253 | 235 | 220 | 204 | 176 | 169 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2017-2018 | 297 | 271 | 273 | 262 | 252 | 242 | 251 | 309 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2017-2018 | 297 | 276 | 278 | 257 | 240 | 224 | 195 | 182 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 297 | 283 | 291 | 275 | 262 | 250 | 244 | 274 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2017 | 297 | 333 | 310 | 289 | 270 | 251 | 208 | 192 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2017 | 297 | 285 | 263 | 244 | 228 | 211 | 183 | 174 |
| Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 90 | 78 | 78 | 79 | 79 | 78 | 59 | 38 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 90 | 79 | 81 | 84 | 86 | 87 | 74 | 63 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2016 | 90 | 78 | 78 | 79 | 79 | 78 | 58 | 30 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 90 | 79 | 79 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 65 | 50 |
| A4. Alternative Scenario: Natural Disaster | 90 | 80 | 80 | 82 | 82 | 81 | 62 | 41 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2017-2018 | 90 | 82 | 87 | 88 | 88 | 87 | 68 | 51 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2017-2018 | 90 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 80 | 79 | 62 | 41 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 90 | 81 | 84 | 86 | 86 | 85 | 67 | 48 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2017 | 90 | 82 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 85 | 65 | 46 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2017 | 90 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 80 | 78 | 61 | 40 |
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2016-36 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 133; 10.5089/9781484365700.002.A003
S