Gabon: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex

This paper discusses challenges, outlook, and risks of Gabon's economy. Gabon's economy is facing mounting headwinds. Economic activity benefited from a one-off boost in oil production in 2015, due to the introduction of new oil fields and productivity improvements, which are expected to help maintain overall growth about 4 percent in 2015. However, the slowdown in non-oil economy activity continued, led by construction, transport, commerce, and services. The main downside risk to the outlook remains weak fiscal adjustment to sharply lower oil prices. In the event of weaker-than-projected performance on oil revenues or government spending, government would be forced to substantially draw down on its deposit buffer and/or significantly increase borrowing.

Abstract

This paper discusses challenges, outlook, and risks of Gabon's economy. Gabon's economy is facing mounting headwinds. Economic activity benefited from a one-off boost in oil production in 2015, due to the introduction of new oil fields and productivity improvements, which are expected to help maintain overall growth about 4 percent in 2015. However, the slowdown in non-oil economy activity continued, led by construction, transport, commerce, and services. The main downside risk to the outlook remains weak fiscal adjustment to sharply lower oil prices. In the event of weaker-than-projected performance on oil revenues or government spending, government would be forced to substantially draw down on its deposit buffer and/or significantly increase borrowing.

  • Relations with the Fund. Gabon has been a member of the International Monetary Fund since 1963. Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) member countries accepted the obligations of Article VIII in June/July 1996. The three-year SBA for about US $118 million expired in May 2010, with only the first three reviews completed. Recurrent fiscal slippages made it difficult to sustain the Fund-supported program. The last Article IV Consultation was concluded on February 18, 2015.

  • Relations with the World Bank. The World Bank is providing technical assistance on several areas, most importantly on statistics, public service wage bill, and institutional development. A US$ 58 million IBRD Loan for the Central African Regional and National Backbone project (CAB4) supporting the development of high speed telecommunication infrastructure was signed in May 2012. The World Bank has more recently approved two US$ 100 million loans, one to finance basic urban services and another to strengthen youth training.

  • Exchange rate regime: Gabon is a member of CEMAC. The common currency, the CFA franc, is pegged at the fixed rate of 655.957 CFA franc per euro. Gabon’s tax on wire transfers constitutes a restriction on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions subject to approval under Article VIII, Section 2 (a) of the Articles of Agreement.

  • Statistical Issues. Gabon has subscribed to the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). While data are broadly adequate for surveillance purposes, staff analysis was affected by the timeliness and coverage of fiscal data, the poor quality of balance of payments and financial stability data, and the limited information on labor cost and productivity.

Relations with the Fund

(As of December 31, 2015)

Membership Status: Joined September 10, 1963 Article VIII

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None

Latest Financial Arrangements:

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Projected Payments to Fund (Expectation Basis)

(SDR Million, based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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Implementation of HIPC Initiative: Not Applicable

Implementation of Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI): Not Applicable

Implementation of Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief (PCDR): Not Applicable

Safeguards Assessments:

The Banque des États d’ Afrique Centrale (BEAC) remains subject to close IMF monitoring of safeguards “rolling measures” in the context of new program requests and reviews for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries. This follows governance challenges and control failures that emerged in 2009. A safeguards staff visit to the BEAC was last conducted in April 2015. Staff concluded that while the BEAC had continued the implementation of its reform plan, slippages had occurred and progress on implementing the safeguards rolling measures has been mixed, including on priority recommendations on amendments to the BEAC charter and adoption of an internationally recognized financial reporting framework (IFRS). The BEAC has requested IMF technical assistance to advance the implementation of the above two recommendations, and work is underway. Progress on implementation of the latter will remain subject to monitoring by the IMF, as a condition to continuing new program requests and reviews for CEMAC member countries.

Exchange Rate Arrangement:

The regional currency is the CFA franc. From 1948 to 1999, it was pegged to the French franc.

Since the euro was introduced in 1999, it has been pegged to the euro at the rate of CFAF 655.957 per euro.

Like other members of CEMAC, Gabon accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3 and 4 on June 26, 1996. Gabon levies a tax on wire transfers, including for the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, which gives rise to an exchange restriction subject to Fund approval under Article VII, Section 2(a) of the Articles. The authorities have exempted certain transactions from the tax; however, the tax continues to apply to other transfers subject to Fund jurisdiction.

Article IV Consultations:

Gabon is on a 12-month Article IV consultation cycle. The Executive Board concluded the last Article IV consultation with Gabon on February 18, 2015

FSAP Participation and ROSCs:

A national module for Gabon of the joint IMF/World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) was completed in 2002 and discussed by the Executive Board in March 2002 (IMF Country Report No. 02/98). The first regional Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) was carried out January-March 2006, and a regional FSAP Update was carried out during November 2014 to January 2015. Regional Reports on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSCs) were done in the areas of monetary and financial policy transparency, banking supervision, and anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) in June 2006.

Resident Representative:

The Fund no longer has a resident representative nor a local economist in Libreville.

Technical Assistance:

A. Central Africa Regional Technical Assistance Center (AFRITAC)

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B. Headquarters

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Relations with the World Bank

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Statistical Issues

Gabon—Statistical Issues Appendix

As of January 20, 2016

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Gabon: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of January 28, 2016)

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Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including deposit rate, discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).