Angola: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex
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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
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This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the oil price shock is adversely impacting the economy of Angola. While oil production has recovered following the completion of maintenance work, non-oil GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 2.1 percent in 2015. The economic situation in 2016 is likely to remain challenging as international oil prices are not expected to recover and risks are on the downside. Growth is projected to remain stable at 3.5 percent in 2016, with the oil sector growing by about 4 percent. The non-oil sector is expected to show a small improvement.

Abstract

This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the oil price shock is adversely impacting the economy of Angola. While oil production has recovered following the completion of maintenance work, non-oil GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 2.1 percent in 2015. The economic situation in 2016 is likely to remain challenging as international oil prices are not expected to recover and risks are on the downside. Growth is projected to remain stable at 3.5 percent in 2016, with the oil sector growing by about 4 percent. The non-oil sector is expected to show a small improvement.

Fund Relations

(As of September 30, 2015)

Membership Status: Joined September 19, 1989; Article XIV

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans:

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Latest Financial Arrangements:

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Projected Payments to Fund

(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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Implementation of HIPC Initiative: Not Applicable

Implementation of Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI): Not Applicable

Implementation of Catastrophe Debt Relief (CDR): Not Applicable

Safeguards Assessments:1 The first-time safeguards assessment, which was finalized in May 2010, found that the National Bank of Angola (BNA) is subject to annual external audits by a reputable firm and has taken steps to address the audit qualifications. The assessment confirmed, however, weak governance and transparency practices at the BNA, including lack of timely publication of annual financial statements. The assessment also made recommendations to enhance the legal framework and independence of the central bank, and to strengthen the control framework in the reserves management and internal audit areas. Since this assessment, the BNA has adopted measures to enhance governance and accountability, including the production of its financial statements. The 2009 statements were audited and published together with the auditors’ report; the 2010 audit was completed and the results were published on the BNA website in mid-October 2011. Since financial year 2011, the BNA has been publishing on a regular and timely basis its annual financial statements, which are subject to external audit by a reputable international firm. However, the BNA has yet to provide IMF staff the related management letters on internal controls issued by the external auditors as stipulated under the Safeguards Policy. Since 2010, the BNA has introduced and consolidated several supporting bodies to its Board of Directors, such as the Monetary Policy Committee, the Financial Stability Committee, and the Investments Committee. The Board of the BNA has strengthened its internal audit function, and in January 2011, it reconstituted its Audit Board. It also adopted in December 2010 guidelines for the management of international reserves and in May 2011 conducted a first semi-annual internal audit of their implementation.

Exchange Arrangements: The de jure exchange rate arrangement is floating. However, the de facto exchange rate arrangement has been classified as a crawl-like arrangement since September 2014. The BNA closely monitors exchange rate fluctuations to maintain price stability in the economy and frequently intervenes in the foreign exchange market by holding foreign exchange auctions and through direct sales. The BNA receives foreign currency from taxes paid by oil companies to the government, and also buys foreign exchange from oil companies who make payments to residents for services provided to them in kwanza. Then, the BNA sells the foreign currency to the market (either through auctions or direct sales), with special focus on the oil and other priority sectors. The official exchange rate of the kwanza vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar has declined by almost 30 percent since September 2014. International reserves have been used to smooth out the depreciation, declining by about US$3 billion since September 2014, to US$24 billion in September 2015 on a net basis. The BNA publishes the auction results and respective reference rates.

Angola continues to maintain restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions under the transitional arrangements of Article XIV, Section 2. The measures maintained pursuant to Article XIV are: (i) limits on the availability of foreign exchange for invisible transactions, such as travel, medical or educational allowances; and (ii) limits on unrequited transfers to foreign-based individuals and institutions. In addition, Angola maintains one exchange restriction subject to Fund jurisdiction under Article VIII, Section 2 resulting from the discriminatory application of the 0.015 percent stamp tax on foreign exchange operations. The exchange restriction on limits on the remittances of dividends and profits from foreign investments has been eliminated with the passage of the new private investment law in August 2015. Angola also maintains two multiple currency practices that are subject to approval under Article VIII, Section 3 arising from: (i) the Dutch foreign exchange auction; and (ii) the discriminatory application of the 0.015 stamp tax on foreign exchange operations. In 2015, Angola introduced new exchange measures, including the priority list for access to U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate and a special tax on transfers to non-residents under contracts for foreign technical assistance or management services. Staff is assessing consistency of these measures, as well as the high spread between the parallel and official exchange rates with Angola’s obligations under Article VIII.

Article IV Consultation: Angola is on the standard 12-month cycle. The next Article IV Consultation is scheduled to be completed by November 2016.

Technical Assistance: Technical assistance activities since 2012 are listed below:

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Resident Representative: Since May 2015 the IMF has a new Resident Representative for Angola (Mr. Max Alier).

Joint Imf-World Bank Management Action Plan

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Statistical Issues

Angola—Statistical Issues Appendix

As of September 30, 2015

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Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).

1

For a description of the IMF Safeguards Assessment framework, see http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/safe.htm.

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