Dabla-Norris, Era, Giang Ho, Kalpana Kochhar, Annette Kyobe, and Robert Tchaidze, 2013, “Anchoring Growth: The Importance of Productivity-Enhancing Reforms in Emerging Market and Developing Economies” IMF SDN/13/08.
Dabla-Norris, Era, Jim Brumby, Annette Kyobe, Zac Mills, and Chris Papageorgiou, 2011, “Investing in Public investment Efficiency” IMF Working Paper 11/97.
Henn, Christian, Chris Papageorgiou, and Nikola Spatafora, 2013, “Export Quality in Developing Countries,” IMF Working Paper 13/108.
IMF, 2014a, “Sustaining Long-Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Low-Income Countries—The Role of Structural Transformation and Diversification.” IMF Policy Paper, March.
Institut National de la Statistique, 2014, “Résultats de l’enquête sur l’Emploi, le Secteur Informel et sur la Consommation des Ménages en 2012,” Septembre.
Prepared by Rodolfo Maino. Dafina Glaser provided valuable research assistance. The assessment of diversification should be interpreted cautiously due to data limitation.
The fiscal anchor was adopted in the context of the 2009 Enhanced Credit Facility Program with the Fund, prohibiting financing from the central bank.
In 2014, copper production reached 1.065 million tons in 2014 and new projects should further expand production in the coming years. Last year alone, copper exports grew by 16.3 percent, making the country the world’s 6th largest copper exporter. The production of gold has more than doubled since 2013.
As pointed out in an independent evaluation of the Doing Business survey (see www.worldbank.org/ieg/doingbusiness), care should be exercised when interpreting these indicators given subjective interpretation, limited coverage of business constraints, and a small number of informants, which tend to overstate the indicators’ coverage and explanatory power.
IMF (2014a) finds that output diversification has a decisive impact on growth for LICs. The standard deviation of output diversification in low income countries is 0.078, resulting in a predicted increase in the growth rate of LICs by 100*(−0.078)*(−0.176) = 1.373 percentage points.