Context and post-program performance: Macroeconomic conditions continued to improve, with the economy recording a second year of strong growth of about 6 percent, significantly higher than envisaged in the 9th Review. The fiscal balance has also been exceptionally strong, reflecting both robust tax revenues and continued strong growth of CBI budgetary fees, while the debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen more rapidly than projected, to 79 percent of GDP. A new government won elections and assumed power in February 2015, which delayed the PPM mission. Article IV: The last Article IV consultation was concluded on March 19, 2014. Current discussions focused on sustaining fiscal prudence, making progress with debt-land swaps, and boosting reform momentum following a further widening of tax exemptions and heightened uncertainty about future CBI inflows. The mission also urged the development of a plan for managing the CBI inflows, support for the regional bank strategy while continuing to strengthen bank oversight, preserving debt sustainability with a strategy for moving forward with the debt-land swap, implementing growth enhancing reforms focusing on strengthening tourism, developing cost-effective energy solutions, and improving the business environment. Post-Program Monitoring: The 36-month SBA for SDR 52.51 million (590 percent of quota) was concluded on July 27, 2014, with total withdrawals of SDR 47.37 million. Following several advance repayments, Fund credit outstanding fell to 298 percent of quota as of end-June 2015, placing St. Kitts and Nevis under Post-Program Monitoring till May 2016, absent additional early repayments.

Abstract

Context and post-program performance: Macroeconomic conditions continued to improve, with the economy recording a second year of strong growth of about 6 percent, significantly higher than envisaged in the 9th Review. The fiscal balance has also been exceptionally strong, reflecting both robust tax revenues and continued strong growth of CBI budgetary fees, while the debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen more rapidly than projected, to 79 percent of GDP. A new government won elections and assumed power in February 2015, which delayed the PPM mission. Article IV: The last Article IV consultation was concluded on March 19, 2014. Current discussions focused on sustaining fiscal prudence, making progress with debt-land swaps, and boosting reform momentum following a further widening of tax exemptions and heightened uncertainty about future CBI inflows. The mission also urged the development of a plan for managing the CBI inflows, support for the regional bank strategy while continuing to strengthen bank oversight, preserving debt sustainability with a strategy for moving forward with the debt-land swap, implementing growth enhancing reforms focusing on strengthening tourism, developing cost-effective energy solutions, and improving the business environment. Post-Program Monitoring: The 36-month SBA for SDR 52.51 million (590 percent of quota) was concluded on July 27, 2014, with total withdrawals of SDR 47.37 million. Following several advance repayments, Fund credit outstanding fell to 298 percent of quota as of end-June 2015, placing St. Kitts and Nevis under Post-Program Monitoring till May 2016, absent additional early repayments.

Fund Relations

(As of July 31, 2015)

Membership Status: Joined August 15, 1984; Article VIII.

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans:

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Latest Financial Arrangements:

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Projected Payments to Fund1/:

(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.

Implementation of HIPC Initiative: Not Applicable

Implementation of MDRI Assistance: Not Applicable

Implementation of Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief (PCDR): Not Applicable

Exchange Arrangement

St. Kitts and Nevis is a member of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB), which manages monetary policy and the exchange system for its eight members. The common currency, the Eastern Caribbean dollar, has been pegged to the U.S. dollar at the rate of EC$2.70 per U.S. dollar since July 1976. The de jure regime is a currency board, which in practice the ECCB has operated like a quasi-currency board, maintaining foreign exchange backing of its currency and demand liabilities close to 100 percent. St. Kitts and Nevis accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4 in December 1984. The exchange system is free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions.

Safeguards Assessment

Under the Fund’s safeguards assessment policy, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) is subject to a full safeguards assessment on a four year cycle. The most recent assessment was completed on April 16, 2012 and did not identify any significant safeguards risks. The assessment made some recommendations to sustain and advance the ECCB’s safeguards framework going forward. The authorities broadly agreed with the recommendations and have commenced implementation.

Last Article IV Consultation

The last Article IV staff report (IMF Country Report No. 14/86) was issued on March 5, 2014. Board discussion took place on March 19, 2014. Article IV consultations take place on a 12-month cycle.

FSAP Participation, ROSCs, and OFC Assessment

St. Kitts and Nevis participated in the regional ECCU FSAP conducted in September 2004. The Financial System Stability Assessment is available at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17718.

A review of St. Kitts and Nevis AML/CFT Assessment was conducted by a team of assessors representing the Caribbean Financial Action Taskforce (CFATF) in September 2012.

Technical Assistance: (2010-Present)

Since 2010, St. Kitts and Nevis has benefited from technical assistance in the areas of tax policy, tax administration, economic statistics, financial supervision and macroeconomic management, both from IMF headquarters and the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC).

  • CARTAC and the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) advised the Central Statistics Office on rebasing the national accounts, rebasing the consumer price index, and developing export-import price indices. CARTAC assisted in compiling separate production-based measures of GDP for St. Kitts and Nevis. Most recently, CARTAC has provided assistance on the methodology for calculating the value added in the construction and the public sector components of the National Accounts.

  • CARTAC, the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM), and the IMF’s Legal Department (LEG) advised the authorities on strengthening financial regulation and supervision, including risk-based supervision. With assistance from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions in Canada (OSFI), CARTAC provided technical assistance to the ECCB on drafting the OECS Insurance Act, and also, in conjunction with LEG, provided technical assistance to the ECCB in finalizing the drafting of the OECS Money Services business Act. CARTAC also assisted in the development of the Single Regulatory Unit and provided training to the Financial Services Regulatory Authority on Risk-Based Supervision.

  • CARTAC has delivered significant TA to the Customs and Excise Department (CED) in relation to its reform and modernization program, including Post-Clearance Audit (PCA), Valuation and Risk Management training and developing a Corporate and Strategic Business Plan (2014-17). CARTAC also provided assistance in drafting a new Customs bill and regulations and training for the implementation of the OECS Harmonized System for goods classification.

  • CARTAC and MCM provided technical assistance on public debt management.

  • IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) and the World Bank provided assistance on Public Financial Management under the SEMCAR project.

  • CARTAC, the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) and LEG provided assistance to improve cash management and tax administration—including collection enforcement. CARTAC also provided assistance in Property Tax reform to move the property tax base from rental value to market value, and in improving central government fiscal and debt data.

  • CARTAC, FAD and LEG provided assistance for review of the assessment of the tax incentives regime.

  • A capacity building exercise was conducted to train new officers in the preparation of fiscal and debt projections.

As part of the Stabilization and Adjustment Technical Assistance Program (SATAP), St. Kitts and Nevis have benefited from capacity building in macroeconomic analysis.

Relations With the World Bank Group

(As of May 30, 2015)

World Bank Group OECS Regional Partnership Strategy. The Board of the Executive Directors of the World Bank Group endorsed the new OECS Regional Partnership Strategy (RPS) November 13, 2014, which covers the period FY15-19. The high-level objective of the new RPS is to contribute to laying down the foundations for sustainable inclusive growth, in line with the OECS governments’ priorities. In order to achieve this goal, the program will be organized around three main areas of engagement. Under the first one, the WBG will support “competitiveness”. Growth and job creation in the private sector will be supported both horizontally - by improving the business environment-and vertically - by focusing on specific sectors with a high potential to generate inclusive sustainable growth (particularly tourism, agribusiness and their respective linkages). The second area of engagement is “public sector modernization”, with particular focus on public financial management (PFM) and institutional capacity, including for statistics and public private partnerships (PPPs), to better leverage private investment in infrastructure and service provision. The third area is “resilience”, with the objective to address both social vulnerabilities (in education, health and social protection), and exposure to natural disasters. Constrained in general by the small size of investments in the OECS, the IFC and MIGA will contribute to the RPS objectives through selective investment support, depending on opportunities. The IFC will focus on crisis response; job creation and inclusive growth; innovation, competitiveness, and integration; and climate change. MIGA faces limited opportunities for engagement because of the small market size of the OECS countries.

The RPS is grounded in a holistic approach to tackling the long-standing issues of low growth and debt sustainability in the Caribbean. This is approach is the Comprehensive Debt Framework (CDF), which was developed in 2010 by the Bank at the request of the Heads of Government of CARICOM countries. Structured around four pillars, the CDF is designed to address the interdependent structural causes of high debt and low growth in small island states by (i) promoting private-sector led growth, (ii) strengthening fiscal management, (iii) building resilience to natural disasters, and (iv) improving debt management. Governments of the OECS recognize the multifaceted nature of the challenges they face and understand that improvements in competitiveness, reduction in sovereign debt levels, fiscal adjustments to ensure macro sustainability, and enhanced sustainability and resilience to shocks are interrelated aspects that are critical to resume and sustain inclusive growth. As a result, they have used the CDF to frame their own reform strategies and activities.

The indicative IBRD lending program. For the six OECS countries, it is expected to be around US$120 million, or up to a maximum of US$20 million for each OECS country for the period of the RPS (FY15-19), subject to country and program performance, IBRD’s lending capacity, and exposure management parameters. In addition to the IBRD envelope, four OECS countries (Dominica, Grenada, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines) can also count on an IDA national allocation. The IDA17 (FY15-17) allocation for the OECS is equal to SDR61.3 million, an increase of around 22 percent over the IDA16 OECS allocation (SDR50.3 million).

A. Projects

St. Kitts and Nevis, because of its income status, is not eligible to IDA resources. Its indicative IBRD allocation for the period covered by the RPS FY15-19 is US$20 million. As of today, there are no active lending operations in St. Kitts and Nevis. This is due, in part, to the high debt level situation of the country and the lack of availability of concessional resources.

The WBG engagement is limited to the implementation of a grant which has the objective to enhance Public Sector Governance and Efficiency. This operation (US$ 415,000) is financed by a grant from the Institutional Development Fund (IDF), a World Bank’s financing tool to enhance the delivery and implementation of programs that will lead ultimately to better development results. The objective of this project is to increase the quality of expenditures and public sector efficiency and promote a fiscally sustainable and more equitable system of pay and employment which generates the right incentives to improve public sector performance in St. Kitts and Nevis. This will be done through building capacity at the Ministry of Finance by working with government teams to: (i) implement measures to rapidly increase the efficiency of personnel expenditures; (ii) align human resource needs and staffing in St. Kitts and Nevis public service through the implementation of recommendations of functional reviews; and (iii) introduce pay classification and evaluations. The project is expected to close in October 2015.

The government of St. Kitts and Nevis launched its national chapter of the Caribbean Growth Forum (CGF) in February 2013. The CGF is an initiative led by the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the Caribbean Development Bank, in collaboration with the United Kingdom Agency for International Development (DFID) and the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs, to identify policies and initiatives aimed at inducing growth and creating jobs in the Caribbean region through analytical work, knowledge exchange and inclusive dialogue. The CGF can contribute to an enhanced and participatory policy dialogue (involving the private sector, CSOs, and other non-traditional stakeholders, such as youth and Diaspora) on key challenges that affect economic growth, in a situation where fiscal space is limited and the need to promote a more diversified knowledge-based economy is pressing. The CGF national chapters have been launched in 12 Caribbean countries, including all the six OECS countries.

B. Economic and Sector Work

The Bank has completed a series of analytical products relating to public expenditure, fiscal and debt sustainability, growth and competitiveness, the financial sector, public sector management and social protection. The ongoing dissemination of these reports represents a key instrument for policy dialogue with the OECS governments, including St. Kitts and Nevis. The Bank’s program in St. Kitts and Nevis is further supported by a comprehensive series of analytical and advisory activities, including the following: “Towards a New Agenda for Growth” - OECS growth and competitiveness study (2005); An OECS Skills Enhancement Policy Note (2006); a Caribbean Air Transport Report (2006); a regional study on Crime, Violence, and Development: Trends, Costs, and Policy Options in the Caribbean (2007); an OECS Private Sector Financing Study (2008); the OECS Tourism Backward Linkages Study (2008); the report titled “Caribbean - Accelerating Trade Integration: Policy Options for Sustained Growth, Job Creation and Poverty Reduction” (2009); a study on the Nurse Labor & Education Markets in the English-Speaking CARICOM: Issues and Options for Reform (2009); and Caribbean Regional Electricity Supply Options: Toward Greater Security, Renewable and Resilience (2011).

Financial Relations

(In millions of U.S. Dollars)

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CARIBBEAN GROWTH FORUM

St. Kitts and Nevis National Chapter

Summary Brief of the Dialogues Realized To Date

Investment Climate Working Group Priorities

  • Establish an ICT Commission

  • Ease of access to finance for small entrepreneurs

  • Consultancy for improvement of Property Registration

  • Consultancy on an Off-Shore Education policy (short term)

  • Establishment of an Energy Commission

Training, Research and Development, ICT

  • Training of personnel in high-income and growth areas, e.g. IT professionals and High-Tech engineers (requires more research)

  • Public Education on crime prevention and eradication (ongoing work)

  • Pursue the possibility of attracting a technology based institute to setup a branch in St. Kitts and the development of a technology park in close relation with this institute (long term)

  • Conduct a human resource and infrastructure audit of the ICT sector (short term but to be referred to the Skills and Productivity Working Group)

  • Establish an ICT Commission (short term)

Hotel industry

  • Consultancy to eradicate the situation with students occupying hotel stock. (Requires additional research and direct government intervention)

  • Need for a system to improve the monitoring, evaluation and economic statistical reporting of hotel properties that obtain concessions (linked to the above)

  • Revision of the Hotel Aids Ordinance Act: reclassification, concessions, occupants, etc. (medium term)

  • Consultancy on an Off-Shore Education policy (short term)

State Modernization

  • Consultancy for a revised Land Use Master Plan (ongoing work)

  • Review aspects of the tax system and its impact on small business enterprises (more research required)

  • Modernization of government’s business operations processes through the use of technology (ongoing work)

  • Consultancy for improvement of Property Registration (short term)

  • Creation of an office for Private Sector Development or Relations (short term - more research required)

  • Establishment of an Energy Commission (short term)

SMEs Development

  • Ease of access to finance for small entrepreneurs in specific sectors: a) ease of access to financing and cost of borrowing (short term) and b) policy adjustments (medium term)

  • The creation of an Incubator System for small manufacturers (considered to be a very important area, services are being supplied by various entities for small entrepreneurs)

  • Attracting investment for new foreign industries with different technologies, e.g. medical devices and pharmaceuticals (medium-long term)

Logistics and Connectivity Working Group Priorities (discussions are still ongoing)

Trade

  • Establish a competent authority on the island of Nevis to be able to issue import licenses and avoid the delay

  • Improve dissemination of information on the requirements for clearing goods from customs to the general public by using ICT and/or public service announcements

  • Address the high cost of importing items

  • Improve availability of adequate and reliable transport for trading in the region

ICT

  • ICT infrastructure: improve access to more affordable and reliable ICT infrastructure, specifically fiber optic networks

  • Reduce time for processing documents at customs

  • Increase E-Government

Tourism

  • For Nevis: improve access to timely and accurate information, airlift and inter-island travel

  • Reduce cost of air-travel: addressing airport levies

  • Inter-island travel: improve the functioning and punctuality of the Ferry Terminal

Skills and Productivity Working Group (discussions are still ongoing)

  • Priorities selected until now: reform the school’s curriculum with regards to a better balance between soft and hard skills

  • Improve the 2013 Labor Market Survey

Relations with the Caribbean Development Bank

(As of December 31, 2014)

Over the years, the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) has supported the economic and social development of St. Kitts and Nevis, by providing financing for priority capital and technical (TA) projects. In addition, CDB has engaged in policy dialogue with the Government of St. Kitts and Nevis. CDB’s involvement with SKN has been concerned with activities such as: the formulation and implementation of macroeconomic, social and sectoral policies; development of infrastructure to facilitate growth and economic diversification; direct and indirect lending to agriculture; and emergency rehabilitation.

In December, 2012, CDB approved a new assistance strategy for St. Kitts and Nevis for the period 2013-16. The strategy focuses on establishing an enabling environment for sustained inclusive growth and poverty reduction and strengthening resilience by securing social stability and improving environmental sustainability. The indicative list of interventions contained in the assistance strategy is expected to result in a lending program of up to US$42.7mn over the strategy period. At the end of 2014, CDB had approved loans totaling US$149.7mn to St. Kitts and Nevis, of which US$3.0mn were undisbursed.

The Nevis Water Supply Enhancement is the only major project currently under implementation. The project aims to assist in improving the water supply network capacity on the island of Nevis. Under the project, approximately 20 kilometers of pipelines, two pumping stations and storage capacity of 1.0 million gallons will be constructed. The project also provides for capacity building and strengthening institutional arrangements for the delivery of water services.

The 2014 reporting period saw significant progress on all three major capital contracts and engagement of the Water Resource Management TA Consultant. The tank installation is approximately 80% complete and the pumping stations 90% completed. Ninety per cent of the pipe material was delivered and the laying of mains by the Nevis Water Department commenced. Disbursement totaled $5.447mn, approximately 63% of the loan amount of $8.425mn. Based on the amounts outstanding on existing contracts and projected activities, the project will be completed approximately $1.0mn below budget.

Three other projects were previously in the pipeline in 2013. (i) The Sixth Student loan was terminated by the borrower, the St. Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla National Bank, and all monies owing to CDB were repaid; (ii) the works funded by the Immediate Response Loan for Tropical Storm Otto were completed under budget and the balance of the loan was cancelled; (iii) the Second Power Project for Nevis which included the installation of a generator of 2.5mw, ancillary switchgear and an operations facility was cancelled.

Major Project under Implementation

(In millions of U.S. Dollars)

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Loan Disbursement, Service and Resource Flow

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

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Source: Caribbean Development Bank

Statistical Issues

I. Assessment of Data Adequacy for Surveillance

Data provision is broadly adequate for surveillance, although there are significant shortcomings in data provision and data quality.

Real Sector

Methodological deficiencies are present in the real sector statistics. GDP figures rely on the production approach, both in constant and current prices. Limited survey data hinder the assessments of value-added for each sector with some sectors suffering from significant weaknesses in estimation methodology. On the expenditure of GDP, which is available only at current prices, the aggregate final private consumption expenditure is derived as a residual. This residual includes households and NPISH final consumption expenditures, and changes in inventories. Weaknesses are observed in the methods to estimate gross capital formation. CPI only covers St. Kitts but not Nevis although the information is available. Monthly CPI data are posted on the ECCB website with a long lag, and a break in the series in November 2010 suggests a methodological problem in the linking process with the previous base. The ECCB disseminated monthly data on tourism also with a long lag, and the estimates on tourism expenditure are based on an old survey of spending by types of tourists and are only updated by changes in CPI. Except for data from the social security board, limited data are available on labor market developments.

Government Finance Statistics

St. Kitts and Nevis has reported to STA quarterly government finance statistics (GFS) up to 2014Q1 and annual GFS up to 2012 on main aggregates and their components for revenue, expense, and financing of the budgetary central government. Extra-budgetary units are included in budgetary central government. Accounts for the public enterprises are only available with a long lag. There are also limited accounts provided on the activities of the Sugar Investment Diversification Foundation, although it is playing an incremental role in fiscal policy. Progress has been made in reducing discrepancies between overall balance and available financing in 2013 but further work is needed to resolve discrepancies in earlier years. Government finance data are recorded by the authorities on a cash basis, and reported to the Fund based on a Chart of Accounts broadly in line with the GFSM 1986 classifications. Efforts to report the government financial balance sheet, particularly the main liabilities (loans and debt securities), will strengthen the fiscal data for surveillance purposes. In implementing the GFSM 2014, the authorities should consider making selective adjustments to the current cash accounting, as relevant, in the following categories: arrears, debt reorganization, transactions in kind, and interest.

External Sector Statistics

The ECCB reports annual balance of payments data of its eight members (including St. Kitts and Nevis) for publication in the Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook (BOPSY) and the International Financial Statistics (IFS). The compilation of balance of payments statistics for the ECCU and member states is a joint exercise between the ECCB and its members. The quality of major components of the balance of payments in the region needs substantial improvement, including the recording of goods imports, travel credits, private transfers, and direct investment transactions. There is also need to compile private sector external debt data. CARTAC is providing technical assistance to the ECCB and the member economies to improve the quality of external sector statistics and to introduce the new survey instruments. The new survey forms are aligned with the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics Manual (BPM6) and also will collect, for the first time, data for the production of international investment position (IIP) statistics. St. Kitts and Nevis does not report external debt data to the Quarterly External Debt Statistics (QEDS) database.

Monetary and Financial Statistics

Monetary statistics have been compiled and reported to the Fund by the ECCB on a monthly basis based on a standardized report form since July 2006, with a timeliness of approximately two months after the reference month. The institutional coverage of monetary statistics needs to be improved by including the accounts of nonbank deposit takers licensed by the ECCB, credit unions, and other financial corporations. In this respect, close coordination between the ECCB and the Financial Services Regulatory Commission (which is supervising financial institutions not licensed by the ECCB under the Banking Act) is crucial. Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) for the ECCU area are not published. While noting some improvements, the 2014 monetary and financial statistics (MFS) technical assistance mission that visited the ECCB identified the following main shortcomings in the ECCB’s monetary statistics: (i) the methodological soundness of monetary statistics can be improved by expanding institutional coverage (particularly of the other depository corporations (ODC) sector), and revising the classifications of some financial instruments and sectors to align the reporting to international standards; (ii) transparency can be improved by adopting a single monetary survey for publication on the ECCB website and in IFS, to be released to all users at the same time; (iii) the timeliness of the dissemination of data on broad money and credit aggregates can be improved to meet best international practices; and (iv) the access to officially disseminated data and metadata can be improved.

II. Data Standards and Quality

St. Kitts and Nevis participates in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since October 2000, and its metadata are posted on the Fund’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). The metadata for the financial sector was updated in 2012 while the metadata for the real, fiscal, and external sectors, has not been updated since the country joined GDDS. A Report on the Monetary Statistics Component of the Regional Data Module Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) for the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) was published in 2007.

Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of July 2015)

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includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

Central government only.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).