Former Yugoslav Republic Of Macedonia: Staff Report for The 2015 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex

The broad-based GDP growth supported by public investment, improved credit and labor market conditions, and robust exports is expected to moderate in the near term. Domestic political uncertainties and the crisis in Greece constitute significant downside risks. Fiscal policy space built up in pre-crisis years has largely been depleted. Rebuilding policy space and buffers to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability is a priority now.

Abstract

The broad-based GDP growth supported by public investment, improved credit and labor market conditions, and robust exports is expected to moderate in the near term. Domestic political uncertainties and the crisis in Greece constitute significant downside risks. Fiscal policy space built up in pre-crisis years has largely been depleted. Rebuilding policy space and buffers to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability is a priority now.

Fund Relations

(As of July 07, 2015)

Missions. Article IV, Skopje, June 29th—July 7th, 2014. Concluding statement is available at: http://www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2015/070815.htm

Staff team. Jesmin Rahman (head), Marc Gerard, Hua Chai, Jubum Na, Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon (all EUR), Duncan Last (FAD), Patrick Gitton (Resident Representative), and Gjorgji Nacevski (local economist).

Discussions. The staff team met with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Stavreski, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Peshevski, National Bank Governor Bogov, other senior officials, and representatives of the banking, business, political and international communities.

Membership Status: Joined 12/14/92; Article VIII

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None

Latest Financial Arrangements:

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Projected Payments to the Fund (Expectation Basis)1

(SDR million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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Exchange Arrangement:

The currency of the FYR of Macedonia is the denar. The FYR of Macedonia maintains a managed floating exchange rate system with a de facto stabilized arrangement against the Euro. Households can transact through commercial banks or through foreign exchange bureaus that act as agents of banks; enterprises can transact through the banking system. The reserve requirement on foreign currency deposits is set at 15 percent, while that on FX-indexed denar deposits are set at 20 percent.

At end-June 2014, the official exchange rate was 55.4 denars per U.S. dollar and 61.69 denars per euro. The FYR of Macedonia has accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4 with effect from June 19, 1998.

Article IV Consultations:

The first consultation with the FYR of Macedonia was concluded in August 1993. The last consultation was concluded on August 28, 2015. The FYR Macedonia is on the standard 12-month Article IV consultation cycle.

Table 1.

Technical Assistance Since 2006

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IMF–World Bank Collaboration

Background

The Bank and the Fund country teams on the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia maintain close collaboration, seeking synergies and harmonizing policy recommendations. Close coordination has resulted in largely shared views of the economic situation in the country.

Key Areas of World Bank Involvement

  • The World Bank program in FYR Macedonia focuses on two interrelated themes: i) Growth and Competitiveness; and ii) Skills and Inclusion. For Growth and Competitiveness, successful poverty reduction would need sustained private sector led growth, making FYR Macedonia more attractive as a destination for investments and as a country whose private companies can compete at the regional and global level. For Skills and Inclusion, the fruits of growth can be shared broadly if more Macedonians have access to better jobs and if public services are of good quality and delivered efficiently. Since FYR Macedonia’s future is clearly linked to the European integration, the Bank’s Country Partnership Strategy actively promotes the EU accession agenda and this represents a cross-cutting theme of the strategy.

  • A series of two budget support operations (Competitiveness DPL) were made available to the Government with the aim to improve the competitiveness of the economy to develop a stronger export-oriented enterprise sector. The second DPL was disbursed in 2014.

  • The Regional and Local Roads Program Support Project (US$105 million) and the new National and Regional Roads Rehabilitation Project (US$ 71 million) are helping with the rehabilitation of the regional and local roads and provide institutional support to improve the management of roads. The World Bank finances the energy sector through the Electric Power Development Energy Community of South East Europe Project APL3 (US$44 million) to improve the transmission grid, including an interconnection with Serbia. Local development is assisted through the Municipal Services Improvement Project (US$75 million), which is helping to improve transparency, financial sustainability and delivery of targeted municipal services in selected municipalities. The World Bank is also active in the human development sector through the Conditional Cash Transfer Project (US$25 million), and the Skills Development and Innovation Support Project (US$24 million).

  • The World Bank has recently completed negotiations for the new Roads Upgrading and Development Project in the amount of EUR 83 million. The project objectives are to improve transport connectivity for road users along Corridor VIII between Skopje and Deve Bair, and to improve the asset management and planning function of Public Enterprise for State Roads.

FYR Macedonia–Bank and Fund Planned Activities in Macrocritical Structural Reform Areas June 2015–May 2016

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Statistical Issues

(As of August 6, 2015)

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Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of August 6, 2015)

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Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Weighted interest rates on loans and deposits in domestic banks. Separately, data is submitted on the rates on central bank bills (policy rate) and treasury bills, notes, and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments. Data including local governments is normally published annually but is also received on an ad-hoc basis during missions.

Currency and maturity composition is reported only on request.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A), Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).

Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC or the Substantive Update (published on September 29, 2004; mission took place during February 18 – March 3, 2004). The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O), largely observed (LO), largely not observed (LNO), or not observed (NO).

Same as footnote 8, except referring to international standards concerning source data, assessment and validation of source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs, and revision studies.

1

When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.