Abstract
The broad-based GDP growth supported by public investment, improved credit and labor market conditions, and robust exports is expected to moderate in the near term. Domestic political uncertainties and the crisis in Greece constitute significant downside risks. Fiscal policy space built up in pre-crisis years has largely been depleted. Rebuilding policy space and buffers to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability is a priority now.
Context
1. Economic recovery has strengthened. Benefiting from strong fiscal stimulus, credit growth and foreign investment, FYR Macedonia is experiencing one of the highest economic growth rates in the region. With output recovery more robust than in other emerging European countries, income convergence continued in post-crisis years and was faster than in other Western Balkan countries. GDP per capita in PPP terms now stands around one third of the EU-15 average (text chart).
Real GDP per Capita, Purchasing Power Parity (USD)
(Percent of average EU-15)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO); and IMF staff calculations.Note: 1/ Weighted average of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. Data for Kosovo is unavailable.Real GDP per Capita, Purchasing Power Parity (USD)
(Percent of average EU-15)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO); and IMF staff calculations.Note: 1/ Weighted average of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. Data for Kosovo is unavailable.Real GDP per Capita, Purchasing Power Parity (USD)
(Percent of average EU-15)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO); and IMF staff calculations.Note: 1/ Weighted average of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. Data for Kosovo is unavailable.
Real GDP, 2014
(Percent of pre-crisis GDP (2008) level)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: IMF, WEO; and IMF staff calculations.Notes: 1/Weighted average of Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia.2/Weighted average of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.3/Weighted average of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.Real GDP, 2014
(Percent of pre-crisis GDP (2008) level)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: IMF, WEO; and IMF staff calculations.Notes: 1/Weighted average of Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia.2/Weighted average of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.3/Weighted average of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.Real GDP, 2014
(Percent of pre-crisis GDP (2008) level)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: IMF, WEO; and IMF staff calculations.Notes: 1/Weighted average of Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia.2/Weighted average of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.3/Weighted average of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.2. Going forward, the challenge is to maintain economic recovery without jeopardizing sustainability, while also tackling downside risks. The government’s growth strategy focusing on attracting foreign investment and enhancing public infrastructure has produced robust growth and a well-diversified export portfolio. However, export success has come at a cost of rapidly rising external public and private indebtedness and resulting high financing needs. While improving infrastructure remains a key ingredient to support the export-led growth in this small, land-locked economy, going forward, a careful balancing is required to secure strong pay-off from the debt build-up. At the same time, the uncertain external environment, particularly with regards to Greece and possible spillovers, makes it urgent to bolster policy space.
3. Domestic political climate has become more polarized. The wiretapping scandal in early 2015 alleging vote rigging and large-scale government abuse of power led to the resignation of top officials and has made the domestic political discord a front and center issue. With mediation from the European Union (EU) and the US, the main political parties have reached an agreement to hold new elections on April 24, 2016. Transition arrangements are complex, spanning over a period of 9 months. They include the return of the opposition to the Parliament, the appointment of a special public prosecutor in September 2015, the appointment of opposition members to several high-level positions, the resignation of the incumbent government before mid-January 2016, and the formation of an interim government led by the current ruling coalition with a mandate limited to the organization of elections.
4. The EU Accession, which anchors the authorities’ long-term vision, remains at an impasse. In its October 2014 progress report, the European Commission maintained its recommendation to open accession negotiations which have been blocked by the name dispute with Greece. Recently, the Commission fielded an expert mission that recommended urgent actions targeting intelligence, judicial and prosecution services, external oversight, conduct of elections and media freedom. Progress on this front will likely weigh in the Commission’s decision to maintain its recommendation.
Text Box. Relations with the Fund and IMF Past Policy Advice
A two-year Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) was approved on January 19, 2011. In March 2011, the authorities drew about US$305 million (286 percent of quota). Following the expiration of the PLL in January 2013, there was a period of post-program monitoring which terminated in January 2015. All outstanding Fund credit (about US$174 million) was repaid in advance in February 2015.
The authorities’ policy actions in the areas of monetary and financial sector have generally been in line with the IMF advice. Traction in the areas of fiscal policy and public finance management has been limited over the past few years. The authorities are yet to implement a fiscal policy anchored in a medium-term fiscal strategy which ensures a gradual consolidation and stabilizes public debt, a key recommendation of the 2014 Article IV Consultation.
Recent Economic and Financial Developments
5. Real GDP growth accelerated in 2014 to 3.8 percent and strong growth continued in 2015Q1. Double-digit growth in investment, and strong private consumption supported by credit growth and improved labor market conditions, boosted output (Table 1, text chart). Real export growth also accelerated, mostly owing to a pick-up in automobile, chemical and plastic products. However, the contribution of net exports to growth remained negative in 2014 due to high investment-related imports. Favorable developments in exports, domestic demand and credit continued through the first quarter, but there are some incipient signs of slowdown since May (Figure 1). Deflation, mostly reflecting developments in external and administered prices, ended in April 2015 (Box 1).
FYR Macedonia: Macroeconomic Framework, 2011–2020
(Year-on-year change, unless otherwise indicated)
The inconsistency between Real GDP growth and contributions to growth results from discrepancies in the official data on GDP and its components.
Including general government and public sector non-financial enterprises.
FYR Macedonia: Macroeconomic Framework, 2011–2020
(Year-on-year change, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. | ||||||||||||
| Real GDP | 2.3 | −0.5 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | ||
| Real domestic demand | 0.4 | 3.5 | −2.6 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | ||
| Private consumption | −5.4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | ||
| Gross investment | 17.9 | 10.2 | −16.6 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Exports (volume) | 16.1 | 2.0 | −2.7 | 17.0 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | ||
| Imports (volume) | 8.0 | 8.2 | −10.0 | 14.5 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.3 | ||
| Contributions to growth 1/ | ||||||||||||
| Domestic demand | 0.5 | 4.0 | −3.1 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 | ||
| Net exports | 1.7 | −3.9 | 5.0 | −0.9 | −1.1 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | 0.2 | ||
| Output gap (percent of potential GDP) | 1.1 | −2.1 | −2.2 | −1.4 | −1.1 | −0.8 | −0.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | ||
| General government operations (percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| Revenues | 29.4 | 29.4 | 28.0 | 27.6 | 29.1 | 29.1 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | ||
| Expenditures | 31.9 | 33.3 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 33.1 | 33.0 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.4 | ||
| Of which: capital | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | ||
| Balance | −2.5 | −3.8 | −3.9 | −4.2 | −4.0 | −3.8 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | ||
| Savings and investment (percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| Domestic saving | 24.4 | 26.0 | 26.7 | 29.2 | 30.2 | 30.6 | 31.0 | 31.4 | 31.3 | 31.0 | ||
| Public | 2.5 | 0.2 | −0.5 | −0.9 | −0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||
| Private | 19.2 | 25.8 | 27.2 | 30.1 | 30.3 | 30.4 | 30.6 | 31.0 | 30.9 | 30.6 | ||
| Foreign saving | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | ||
| Gross investment | 26.9 | 28.9 | 28.5 | 30.6 | 33.4 | 35.0 | 35.3 | 35.2 | 34.9 | 34.5 | ||
| Consumer prices | ||||||||||||
| Period average | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | −0.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||
| End-period | 2.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | −0.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||
| Private sector credit growth | 7.7 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.1 | ||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Current account balance (percent of GDP) | −2.5 | −2.9 | −1.8 | −1.3 | −3.2 | −4.4 | −4.3 | −3.8 | −3.6 | −3.5 | ||
| Gross official reserves (millions of euros) | 2,069 | 2,193 | 1,993 | 2,434 | 2,277 | 2,476 | 2,704 | 2,789 | 2,859 | 2,998 | ||
| in percent of ST debt | 112 | 101 | 107 | 116 | 111 | 121 | 118 | 121 | 134 | 133 | ||
| in months of prospective imports | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.7 | ||
| Gross general government debt (percent of GDP) | 27.7 | 33.7 | 34.1 | 38.1 | 37.0 | 39.5 | 41.0 | 42.5 | 43.8 | 44.8 | ||
| Public and publicly guaranteed debt (percent of GDP) 2 | 30.1 | 36.3 | 38.2 | 43.5 | 44.2 | 48.3 | 50.9 | 52.9 | 53.8 | 54.1 | ||
| Foreign direct investment (percent of GDP) | 4.6 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | ||
| External debt (percent of GDP) | 64.2 | 68.2 | 64.3 | 69.8 | 68.3 | 72.2 | 75.6 | 76.1 | 75.9 | 75.6 | ||
| Nominal GDP (billions of denars) | 464 | 467 | 500 | 526 | 549 | 574 | 602 | 633 | 668 | 708 | ||
| Nominal GDP (millions of euros) | 7,544 | 7,585 | 8,112 | 8,533 | 8,912 | 9,322 | 9,776 | 10,278 | 10,844 | 11,481 | ||
| GDP per capita (PPP, constant USD 2005) | 9,356 | 9,323 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||
| Gini coefficient | 39.2 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||
The inconsistency between Real GDP growth and contributions to growth results from discrepancies in the official data on GDP and its components.
Including general government and public sector non-financial enterprises.
FYR Macedonia: Macroeconomic Framework, 2011–2020
(Year-on-year change, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. | ||||||||||||
| Real GDP | 2.3 | −0.5 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | ||
| Real domestic demand | 0.4 | 3.5 | −2.6 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | ||
| Private consumption | −5.4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | ||
| Gross investment | 17.9 | 10.2 | −16.6 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Exports (volume) | 16.1 | 2.0 | −2.7 | 17.0 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | ||
| Imports (volume) | 8.0 | 8.2 | −10.0 | 14.5 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.3 | ||
| Contributions to growth 1/ | ||||||||||||
| Domestic demand | 0.5 | 4.0 | −3.1 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 | ||
| Net exports | 1.7 | −3.9 | 5.0 | −0.9 | −1.1 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | 0.2 | ||
| Output gap (percent of potential GDP) | 1.1 | −2.1 | −2.2 | −1.4 | −1.1 | −0.8 | −0.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | ||
| General government operations (percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| Revenues | 29.4 | 29.4 | 28.0 | 27.6 | 29.1 | 29.1 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | ||
| Expenditures | 31.9 | 33.3 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 33.1 | 33.0 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.4 | ||
| Of which: capital | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | ||
| Balance | −2.5 | −3.8 | −3.9 | −4.2 | −4.0 | −3.8 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | ||
| Savings and investment (percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| Domestic saving | 24.4 | 26.0 | 26.7 | 29.2 | 30.2 | 30.6 | 31.0 | 31.4 | 31.3 | 31.0 | ||
| Public | 2.5 | 0.2 | −0.5 | −0.9 | −0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||
| Private | 19.2 | 25.8 | 27.2 | 30.1 | 30.3 | 30.4 | 30.6 | 31.0 | 30.9 | 30.6 | ||
| Foreign saving | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | ||
| Gross investment | 26.9 | 28.9 | 28.5 | 30.6 | 33.4 | 35.0 | 35.3 | 35.2 | 34.9 | 34.5 | ||
| Consumer prices | ||||||||||||
| Period average | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | −0.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||
| End-period | 2.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | −0.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||
| Private sector credit growth | 7.7 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.1 | ||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Current account balance (percent of GDP) | −2.5 | −2.9 | −1.8 | −1.3 | −3.2 | −4.4 | −4.3 | −3.8 | −3.6 | −3.5 | ||
| Gross official reserves (millions of euros) | 2,069 | 2,193 | 1,993 | 2,434 | 2,277 | 2,476 | 2,704 | 2,789 | 2,859 | 2,998 | ||
| in percent of ST debt | 112 | 101 | 107 | 116 | 111 | 121 | 118 | 121 | 134 | 133 | ||
| in months of prospective imports | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.7 | ||
| Gross general government debt (percent of GDP) | 27.7 | 33.7 | 34.1 | 38.1 | 37.0 | 39.5 | 41.0 | 42.5 | 43.8 | 44.8 | ||
| Public and publicly guaranteed debt (percent of GDP) 2 | 30.1 | 36.3 | 38.2 | 43.5 | 44.2 | 48.3 | 50.9 | 52.9 | 53.8 | 54.1 | ||
| Foreign direct investment (percent of GDP) | 4.6 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | ||
| External debt (percent of GDP) | 64.2 | 68.2 | 64.3 | 69.8 | 68.3 | 72.2 | 75.6 | 76.1 | 75.9 | 75.6 | ||
| Nominal GDP (billions of denars) | 464 | 467 | 500 | 526 | 549 | 574 | 602 | 633 | 668 | 708 | ||
| Nominal GDP (millions of euros) | 7,544 | 7,585 | 8,112 | 8,533 | 8,912 | 9,322 | 9,776 | 10,278 | 10,844 | 11,481 | ||
| GDP per capita (PPP, constant USD 2005) | 9,356 | 9,323 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||
| Gini coefficient | 39.2 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||
The inconsistency between Real GDP growth and contributions to growth results from discrepancies in the official data on GDP and its components.
Including general government and public sector non-financial enterprises.
FYR Macedonia: Real Sector Developments, 2010–2015
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations.Note: 1/ CESEE: Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria, FYR Macedonia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and Turkey. Western Balkan includes Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, FYR Macedonia, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.FYR Macedonia: Real Sector Developments, 2010–2015
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations.Note: 1/ CESEE: Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria, FYR Macedonia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and Turkey. Western Balkan includes Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, FYR Macedonia, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.FYR Macedonia: Real Sector Developments, 2010–2015
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations.Note: 1/ CESEE: Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria, FYR Macedonia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and Turkey. Western Balkan includes Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, FYR Macedonia, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.
FYR Macedonia: Contribution to Real GDP Growth
(Percent)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office; and IMF staff calculations.FYR Macedonia: Contribution to Real GDP Growth
(Percent)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office; and IMF staff calculations.FYR Macedonia: Contribution to Real GDP Growth
(Percent)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office; and IMF staff calculations.Deflationary Developments and Drivers
FYR Macedonia experienced deflation like several other countries in the region. Headline inflation in FYR Macedonia began to fall sharply in mid-2013 and turned negative in April 2014. The falling inflation was mostly due to falling food and energy prices and their pass-through to domestic prices. Many neighboring countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE), including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Hungary, Kosovo, Montenegro and Poland, experienced deflation in 2014 (text charts).
FYR Macedonia: Contribution to Headline Inflation
(Percentage points unless otherwise noted)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: Republic of Macedonia Stata Statistical Office; and IMF staff calculations.FYR Macedonia: Contribution to Headline Inflation
(Percentage points unless otherwise noted)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: Republic of Macedonia Stata Statistical Office; and IMF staff calculations.FYR Macedonia: Contribution to Headline Inflation
(Percentage points unless otherwise noted)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: Republic of Macedonia Stata Statistical Office; and IMF staff calculations.
The contribution from world food and energy prices, their pass-through to domestic prices via cuts in administered prices (mostly in energy), and low euro area inflation seem to be the main drivers. Falling food and energy prices as well as low core inflation in the euro area contributed another 20 percent to price developments. Reductions in administered prices during 2012–2014 are estimated to have contributed to 60 percent of the decline in headline inflation, according to a regression-based variance decomposition analysis. Administered prices consist of about 15 percent of the consumption basket (mostly fuels and electricity). These estimates are in line with the findings in Iossifov and Podpiera (2014) for other countries in the region (text chart).
Headline Inflation Variance Decomposition, 2012-2014
(Contribution in percent)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Souree: IMF staff estimates.Note: 1/ Administered prices for CEEcountries includes tax.2/ Nominal effective exchange rate is not show in Macedonia’s decomposition, because the coefficient is very small and statistically insignificant.3/ Based on Iossifov and Podpiera (2014).
Headline Inflation Variance Decomposition, 2012-2014
(Contribution in percent)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Souree: IMF staff estimates.Note: 1/ Administered prices for CEEcountries includes tax.2/ Nominal effective exchange rate is not show in Macedonia’s decomposition, because the coefficient is very small and statistically insignificant.3/ Based on Iossifov and Podpiera (2014).Headline Inflation Variance Decomposition, 2012-2014
(Contribution in percent)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Souree: IMF staff estimates.Note: 1/ Administered prices for CEEcountries includes tax.2/ Nominal effective exchange rate is not show in Macedonia’s decomposition, because the coefficient is very small and statistically insignificant.3/ Based on Iossifov and Podpiera (2014).Headline inflation turned positive since April 2015 and has been increasing. Deflation risks are low, despite recent downward revisions in world oil prices in the absence of any further cuts in administrative prices.
6. Despite strong growth, the government’s budget deficit target was missed in 2014. At 4.2 percent of GDP, the deficit was higher than the supplementary budget target by ½ percent of GDP (¾ percent relative to the original budget). This was mostly due to underperformance in non-tax and capital revenues, a persistent trend since 2010, while spending remained within the budgeted amount (text table). The general government debt reached 38 percent of GDP at end-2014, a near doubling since 2008, while broader public sector debt (includes mainly two State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), the Public Enterprise for State Roads (PESR) and the Electricity Distribution Company (ELEM)) rose to 44 percent of GDP (Figure 2, Tables 2a and 2b).
FYR Macedonia: Fiscal Sector Developments, 2008–2014
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations.Note: 1/ The color red indicates a non-stabilizing primary balance. WB stands for Western Balkan countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro and CEE include Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia.
FYR Macedonia: Fiscal Sector Developments, 2008–2014
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations.Note: 1/ The color red indicates a non-stabilizing primary balance. WB stands for Western Balkan countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro and CEE include Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia.FYR Macedonia: Fiscal Sector Developments, 2008–2014
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations.Note: 1/ The color red indicates a non-stabilizing primary balance. WB stands for Western Balkan countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro and CEE include Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia.FYR Macedonia: Central Government Operations, 2010–2020
(Billions of denars)
Resulting from excluding: (i) revenues from lending; and (ii) lending guarantees from current expenditures.
Including general government and non-financial SOEs.
FYR Macedonia: Central Government Operations, 2010–2020
(Billions of denars)
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buget | Buget | ||||||||||||||||||
| Original | Revised | Act. | Original | Proj. | MTS | Proj. | MTS | Proj. | Proj. | Proj. | Proj. | ||||||||
| Total Revenues | 131.6 | 136.4 | 137.4 | 139.7 | 158.2 | 155.6 | 145.2 | 162.5 | 159.9 | 168.1 | 167.3 | 174.4 | 173.9 | 182.8 | 192.9 | 204.2 | |||
| Tax Revenues and Contributions | 112.4 | 118.7 | 117.4 | 121.0 | 133.9 | 131.4 | 129.3 | 137.7 | 138.0 | 142.5 | 145.2 | 148.5 | 151.5 | 159.3 | 168.1 | 178.0 | |||
| PIT | 8.9 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 13.7 | 14.5 | |||
| CIT | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 12.9 | |||
| VAT (net) | 37.7 | 42.2 | 38.5 | 39.8 | 48.5 | 44.5 | 43.9 | 45.7 | 41.1 | 47.1 | 44.8 | 48.9 | 46.6 | 49.0 | 51.7 | 54.7 | |||
| Excises | 14.9 | 15.5 | 16.6 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 16.9 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 18.6 | 17.9 | 19.5 | 18.6 | 20.4 | 21.5 | 22.6 | 24.0 | |||
| Custom Duties | 4.7 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.1 | |||
| Other Taxes | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.5 | |||
| Social Contributions | 38.7 | 39.8 | 40.8 | 42.5 | 45.2 | 44.7 | 44.2 | 48.7 | 46.8 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 53.3 | 51.4 | 54.0 | 57.0 | 60.3 | |||
| Pensions | 26.1 | 26.9 | 27.5 | 28.7 | 30.6 | 30.2 | 29.7 | 33.3 | 31.7 | 34.8 | 33.2 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 38.4 | 40.5 | 42.9 | |||
| Unemployment | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | |||
| Health | 10.9 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 14.1 | 13.7 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 15.5 | 16.4 | 17.4 | |||
| Non-Tax Revenues | 12.1 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 14.5 | 14.2 | 10.4 | 17.1 | 14.5 | 17.9 | 15.2 | 18.2 | 15.4 | 16.2 | 17.1 | 18.1 | |||
| Capital Revenues | 5.6 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.9 | |||
| Grants | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | |||
| Expenditures | 142.2 | 147.9 | 155.2 | 159.0 | 176.5 | 175.2 | 167.3 | 181.0 | 181.7 | 187.1 | 189.4 | 192.6 | 195.0 | 205.0 | 216.3 | 229.0 | |||
| Current Expenditures | 127.4 | 130.9 | 137.1 | 142.9 | 154.1 | 154.1 | 150.4 | 160.6 | 161.2 | 165.7 | 166.8 | 171.2 | 172.3 | 181.2 | 191.1 | 202.4 | |||
| Wages and salaries | 22.6 | 23.1 | 22.7 | 22.6 | 23.7 | 23.6 | 23.1 | 24.5 | 25.1 | 24.4 | 25.1 | 24.4 | 25.1 | 26.3 | 27.8 | 29.4 | |||
| Goods and services | 14.7 | 14.0 | 14.7 | 14.9 | 18.7 | 18.6 | 15.5 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 19.7 | 20.8 | 22.0 | |||
| Transfers | 86.9 | 90.4 | 95.5 | 100.8 | 107.4 | 107.4 | 106.8 | 111.4 | 111.4 | 115.5 | 115.5 | 119.9 | 119.9 | 126.0 | 133.0 | 140.8 | |||
| Pensions | 37.6 | 39.2 | 40.9 | 44.9 | 48.1 | 48.2 | 48.1 | 50.2 | 50.2 | 53.2 | 53.2 | 56.4 | 56.4 | 59.3 | 62.5 | 66.2 | |||
| Health | 19.3 | 20.5 | 20.9 | 21.4 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 22.1 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 24.4 | 24.4 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 26.8 | 28.3 | 30.0 | |||
| Other | 29.9 | 30.6 | 33.7 | 34.5 | 37.1 | 37.0 | 36.6 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 38.0 | 38.0 | 39.9 | 42.1 | 44.6 | |||
| Interest | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 10.2 | |||
| Capital Expenditures | 15.3 | 17.7 | 18.8 | 16.6 | 22.4 | 21.1 | 17.6 | 21.2 | 21.3 | 22.2 | 23.4 | 22.2 | 23.4 | 24.6 | 26.0 | 27.5 | |||
| Lending minus repayment 1/ | −0.5 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.9 | −0.9 | |||
| Overall fiscal balance | −10.5 | −11.5 | −17.8 | −19.3 | −18.3 | −19.6 | −22.1 | −18.5 | −21.8 | −19.0 | −22.1 | −18.3 | −21.1 | −22.1 | −23.4 | −24.7 | |||
| Financing | 10.5 | 11.5 | 17.7 | 19.3 | 18.3 | 19.6 | 22.1 | 18.5 | 21.9 | 19.0 | 22.1 | 18.3 | 21.1 | 22.2 | 23.4 | 24.8 | |||
| Domestic | 5.3 | −9.4 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 22.0 | −8.3 | −6.1 | 22.2 | 40.2 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 13.6 | 21.3 | 18.6 | 18.5 | |||
| Central Bank deposits | 3.4 | −7.3 | −12.3 | −0.3 | 13.9 | −12.7 | −5.4 | 23.4 | 19.4 | 0.3 | −1.4 | −1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Other domestic financing | 1.9 | −2.1 | 25.6 | 13.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | −0.8 | 20.7 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 21.3 | 18.6 | 18.5 | ||||||
| Privatization receipts | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Foreign | 5.2 | 20.6 | 4.3 | 5.6 | −3.9 | 27.8 | 27.8 | −3.8 | −18.3 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 6.3 | |||
| Memo items: | |||||||||||||||||||
| Gross general government debt (in percent of GDP) | 24.1 | 27.7 | 33.7 | 34.2 | 38.2 | 37.1 | 39.6 | 41.1 | 42.6 | 43.9 | 44.9 | ||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of denars) | 437 | 464 | 467 | 500 | 526 | 526 | 526 | 549 | 549 | 574 | 574 | 602 | 602 | 633 | 668 | 708 | |||
| Stock of government deposits at the NBRM (EUR mln eop) | 11.4 | 7.7 | 19.5 | 18.8 | 370.0 | 54.8 | 77.3 | 65.2 | 65.2 | 65.2 | 65.2 | ||||||||
| Public and publicly guaranteed debt (in percent of GDP) 2/ | 43.5 | 44.2 | 48.3 | 50.9 | 52.9 | 53.8 | 54.1 | ||||||||||||
Resulting from excluding: (i) revenues from lending; and (ii) lending guarantees from current expenditures.
Including general government and non-financial SOEs.
FYR Macedonia: Central Government Operations, 2010–2020
(Billions of denars)
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buget | Buget | ||||||||||||||||||
| Original | Revised | Act. | Original | Proj. | MTS | Proj. | MTS | Proj. | Proj. | Proj. | Proj. | ||||||||
| Total Revenues | 131.6 | 136.4 | 137.4 | 139.7 | 158.2 | 155.6 | 145.2 | 162.5 | 159.9 | 168.1 | 167.3 | 174.4 | 173.9 | 182.8 | 192.9 | 204.2 | |||
| Tax Revenues and Contributions | 112.4 | 118.7 | 117.4 | 121.0 | 133.9 | 131.4 | 129.3 | 137.7 | 138.0 | 142.5 | 145.2 | 148.5 | 151.5 | 159.3 | 168.1 | 178.0 | |||
| PIT | 8.9 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 13.7 | 14.5 | |||
| CIT | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 12.9 | |||
| VAT (net) | 37.7 | 42.2 | 38.5 | 39.8 | 48.5 | 44.5 | 43.9 | 45.7 | 41.1 | 47.1 | 44.8 | 48.9 | 46.6 | 49.0 | 51.7 | 54.7 | |||
| Excises | 14.9 | 15.5 | 16.6 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 16.9 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 18.6 | 17.9 | 19.5 | 18.6 | 20.4 | 21.5 | 22.6 | 24.0 | |||
| Custom Duties | 4.7 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.1 | |||
| Other Taxes | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.5 | |||
| Social Contributions | 38.7 | 39.8 | 40.8 | 42.5 | 45.2 | 44.7 | 44.2 | 48.7 | 46.8 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 53.3 | 51.4 | 54.0 | 57.0 | 60.3 | |||
| Pensions | 26.1 | 26.9 | 27.5 | 28.7 | 30.6 | 30.2 | 29.7 | 33.3 | 31.7 | 34.8 | 33.2 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 38.4 | 40.5 | 42.9 | |||
| Unemployment | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | |||
| Health | 10.9 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 14.1 | 13.7 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 15.5 | 16.4 | 17.4 | |||
| Non-Tax Revenues | 12.1 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 14.5 | 14.2 | 10.4 | 17.1 | 14.5 | 17.9 | 15.2 | 18.2 | 15.4 | 16.2 | 17.1 | 18.1 | |||
| Capital Revenues | 5.6 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.9 | |||
| Grants | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | |||
| Expenditures | 142.2 | 147.9 | 155.2 | 159.0 | 176.5 | 175.2 | 167.3 | 181.0 | 181.7 | 187.1 | 189.4 | 192.6 | 195.0 | 205.0 | 216.3 | 229.0 | |||
| Current Expenditures | 127.4 | 130.9 | 137.1 | 142.9 | 154.1 | 154.1 | 150.4 | 160.6 | 161.2 | 165.7 | 166.8 | 171.2 | 172.3 | 181.2 | 191.1 | 202.4 | |||
| Wages and salaries | 22.6 | 23.1 | 22.7 | 22.6 | 23.7 | 23.6 | 23.1 | 24.5 | 25.1 | 24.4 | 25.1 | 24.4 | 25.1 | 26.3 | 27.8 | 29.4 | |||
| Goods and services | 14.7 | 14.0 | 14.7 | 14.9 | 18.7 | 18.6 | 15.5 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 19.7 | 20.8 | 22.0 | |||
| Transfers | 86.9 | 90.4 | 95.5 | 100.8 | 107.4 | 107.4 | 106.8 | 111.4 | 111.4 | 115.5 | 115.5 | 119.9 | 119.9 | 126.0 | 133.0 | 140.8 | |||
| Pensions | 37.6 | 39.2 | 40.9 | 44.9 | 48.1 | 48.2 | 48.1 | 50.2 | 50.2 | 53.2 | 53.2 | 56.4 | 56.4 | 59.3 | 62.5 | 66.2 | |||
| Health | 19.3 | 20.5 | 20.9 | 21.4 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 22.1 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 24.4 | 24.4 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 26.8 | 28.3 | 30.0 | |||
| Other | 29.9 | 30.6 | 33.7 | 34.5 | 37.1 | 37.0 | 36.6 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 38.0 | 38.0 | 39.9 | 42.1 | 44.6 | |||
| Interest | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 10.2 | |||
| Capital Expenditures | 15.3 | 17.7 | 18.8 | 16.6 | 22.4 | 21.1 | 17.6 | 21.2 | 21.3 | 22.2 | 23.4 | 22.2 | 23.4 | 24.6 | 26.0 | 27.5 | |||
| Lending minus repayment 1/ | −0.5 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.9 | −0.9 | |||
| Overall fiscal balance | −10.5 | −11.5 | −17.8 | −19.3 | −18.3 | −19.6 | −22.1 | −18.5 | −21.8 | −19.0 | −22.1 | −18.3 | −21.1 | −22.1 | −23.4 | −24.7 | |||
| Financing | 10.5 | 11.5 | 17.7 | 19.3 | 18.3 | 19.6 | 22.1 | 18.5 | 21.9 | 19.0 | 22.1 | 18.3 | 21.1 | 22.2 | 23.4 | 24.8 | |||
| Domestic | 5.3 | −9.4 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 22.0 | −8.3 | −6.1 | 22.2 | 40.2 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 13.6 | 21.3 | 18.6 | 18.5 | |||
| Central Bank deposits | 3.4 | −7.3 | −12.3 | −0.3 | 13.9 | −12.7 | −5.4 | 23.4 | 19.4 | 0.3 | −1.4 | −1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Other domestic financing | 1.9 | −2.1 | 25.6 | 13.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | −0.8 | 20.7 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 21.3 | 18.6 | 18.5 | ||||||
| Privatization receipts | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Foreign | 5.2 | 20.6 | 4.3 | 5.6 | −3.9 | 27.8 | 27.8 | −3.8 | −18.3 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 6.3 | |||
| Memo items: | |||||||||||||||||||
| Gross general government debt (in percent of GDP) | 24.1 | 27.7 | 33.7 | 34.2 | 38.2 | 37.1 | 39.6 | 41.1 | 42.6 | 43.9 | 44.9 | ||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of denars) | 437 | 464 | 467 | 500 | 526 | 526 | 526 | 549 | 549 | 574 | 574 | 602 | 602 | 633 | 668 | 708 | |||
| Stock of government deposits at the NBRM (EUR mln eop) | 11.4 | 7.7 | 19.5 | 18.8 | 370.0 | 54.8 | 77.3 | 65.2 | 65.2 | 65.2 | 65.2 | ||||||||
| Public and publicly guaranteed debt (in percent of GDP) 2/ | 43.5 | 44.2 | 48.3 | 50.9 | 52.9 | 53.8 | 54.1 | ||||||||||||
Resulting from excluding: (i) revenues from lending; and (ii) lending guarantees from current expenditures.
Including general government and non-financial SOEs.
FYR Macedonia: Central Government Operations, 2010–2020
(Percent of GDP)
Resulting from excluding: (i) revenues from lending; and (ii) lending guarantees from current expenditures.
Including general government and non-financial SOEs.
FYR Macedonia: Central Government Operations, 2010–2020
(Percent of GDP)
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buget | Buget | ||||||||||||||||||
| Original | Revised | Act. | Original | Proj. | MTS | Proj. | MTS | Proj. | Proj. | Proj. | Proj. | ||||||||
| Total Revenues | 30.1 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 28.0 | 30.1 | 29.6 | 27.6 | 29.6 | 29.1 | 29.3 | 29.1 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | |||
| Tax Revenues and Contributions | 25.7 | 25.6 | 25.2 | 24.2 | 25.5 | 25.0 | 24.6 | 25.1 | 25.1 | 24.8 | 25.3 | 24.7 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.2 | |||
| PIT | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||
| CIT | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |||
| VAT (net) | 8.6 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | |||
| Excises | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | |||
| Custom Duties | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |||
| Other Taxes | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||
| Social Contributions | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | |||
| Pensions | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | |||
| Unemployment | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||
| Health | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |||
| Non-Tax Revenues | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | |||
| Capital Revenues | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |||
| Grants | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |||
| Expenditures | 32.5 | 31.9 | 33.3 | 31.8 | 33.6 | 33.3 | 31.8 | 33.0 | 33.1 | 32.6 | 33.0 | 32.0 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.4 | |||
| Current Expenditures | 29.1 | 28.2 | 29.4 | 28.6 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 28.6 | 29.2 | 29.3 | 28.8 | 29.0 | 28.4 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 28.6 | |||
| Wages and salaries | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | |||
| Goods and services | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | |||
| Transfers | 19.9 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 20.2 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | |||
| Pensions | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | |||
| Health | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | |||
| Other | 6.8 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | |||
| Interest | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |||
| Capital Expenditures | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | |||
| Lending minus repayment 1/ | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | |||
| Overall fiscal balance | −2.4 | −2.5 | −3.8 | −3.9 | −3.5 | −3.7 | −4.2 | −3.4 | −4.0 | −3.3 | −3.8 | −3.0 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | |||
| Financing | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |||
| Domestic | 1.2 | −2.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 4.2 | −1.6 | −1.2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | |||
| Central Bank deposits | 0.8 | −1.6 | −2.6 | −0.1 | 2.6 | −2.4 | −1.0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | 0.1 | ||||||
| Other domestic financing | 0.4 | −0.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | −0.1 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | ||||||
| Privatization receipts | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Foreign | 1.2 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | −0.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | −0.7 | −3.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | |||
| Memo items: | |||||||||||||||||||
| Gross general government debt (in percent of GDP) | 24.1 | 27.7 | 33.7 | 34.2 | 38.2 | 37.1 | 39.6 | 41.1 | 42.6 | 43.9 | 44.9 | ||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of denars) | 437.3 | 464.2 | 466.7 | 499.6 | 525.8 | 525.8 | 525.8 | 549.2 | 549.2 | 574.5 | 574.5 | 602.4 | 602.4 | 633.4 | 668.3 | 707.5 | |||
| Stock of government deposits at the NBRM (EUR mln eop) | 11.4 | 7.7 | 19.5 | 18.8 | 370.0 | 54.8 | 77.3 | 65.2 | 65.2 | 65.2 | 65.2 | ||||||||
| Public and publicly guaranteed debt (in percent of GDP) 2/ | 43.5 | 44.2 | 48.3 | 50.9 | 52.9 | 53.8 | 54.1 | ||||||||||||
Resulting from excluding: (i) revenues from lending; and (ii) lending guarantees from current expenditures.
Including general government and non-financial SOEs.
FYR Macedonia: Central Government Operations, 2010–2020
(Percent of GDP)
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buget | Buget | ||||||||||||||||||
| Original | Revised | Act. | Original | Proj. | MTS | Proj. | MTS | Proj. | Proj. | Proj. | Proj. | ||||||||
| Total Revenues | 30.1 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 28.0 | 30.1 | 29.6 | 27.6 | 29.6 | 29.1 | 29.3 | 29.1 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 | |||
| Tax Revenues and Contributions | 25.7 | 25.6 | 25.2 | 24.2 | 25.5 | 25.0 | 24.6 | 25.1 | 25.1 | 24.8 | 25.3 | 24.7 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.2 | |||
| PIT | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||
| CIT | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |||
| VAT (net) | 8.6 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | |||
| Excises | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | |||
| Custom Duties | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |||
| Other Taxes | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||
| Social Contributions | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | |||
| Pensions | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | |||
| Unemployment | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||
| Health | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |||
| Non-Tax Revenues | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | |||
| Capital Revenues | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |||
| Grants | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |||
| Expenditures | 32.5 | 31.9 | 33.3 | 31.8 | 33.6 | 33.3 | 31.8 | 33.0 | 33.1 | 32.6 | 33.0 | 32.0 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.4 | |||
| Current Expenditures | 29.1 | 28.2 | 29.4 | 28.6 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 28.6 | 29.2 | 29.3 | 28.8 | 29.0 | 28.4 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 28.6 | |||
| Wages and salaries | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | |||
| Goods and services | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | |||
| Transfers | 19.9 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 20.2 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 19.9 | |||
| Pensions | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | |||
| Health | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | |||
| Other | 6.8 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | |||
| Interest | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |||
| Capital Expenditures | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | |||
| Lending minus repayment 1/ | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | |||
| Overall fiscal balance | −2.4 | −2.5 | −3.8 | −3.9 | −3.5 | −3.7 | −4.2 | −3.4 | −4.0 | −3.3 | −3.8 | −3.0 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | |||
| Financing | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |||
| Domestic | 1.2 | −2.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 4.2 | −1.6 | −1.2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | |||
| Central Bank deposits | 0.8 | −1.6 | −2.6 | −0.1 | 2.6 | −2.4 | −1.0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | 0.1 | ||||||
| Other domestic financing | 0.4 | −0.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | −0.1 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | ||||||
| Privatization receipts | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Foreign | 1.2 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | −0.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | −0.7 | −3.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | |||
| Memo items: | |||||||||||||||||||
| Gross general government debt (in percent of GDP) | 24.1 | 27.7 | 33.7 | 34.2 | 38.2 | 37.1 | 39.6 | 41.1 | 42.6 | 43.9 | 44.9 | ||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of denars) | 437.3 | 464.2 | 466.7 | 499.6 | 525.8 | 525.8 | 525.8 | 549.2 | 549.2 | 574.5 | 574.5 | 602.4 | 602.4 | 633.4 | 668.3 | 707.5 | |||
| Stock of government deposits at the NBRM (EUR mln eop) | 11.4 | 7.7 | 19.5 | 18.8 | 370.0 | 54.8 | 77.3 | 65.2 | 65.2 | 65.2 | 65.2 | ||||||||
| Public and publicly guaranteed debt (in percent of GDP) 2/ | 43.5 | 44.2 | 48.3 | 50.9 | 52.9 | 53.8 | 54.1 | ||||||||||||
Resulting from excluding: (i) revenues from lending; and (ii) lending guarantees from current expenditures.
Including general government and non-financial SOEs.
FYR Macedonia: Central Government Budget Execution Rates, 2010 - 2014
Include PIT, CIT, VAT, Excises, and Custom Duties.
FYR Macedonia: Central Government Budget Execution Rates, 2010 - 2014
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (percent of target) | |||||||
| Total Revenues | 95 | 92 | 92 | 94 | 93 | ||
| Tax Revenues and Contributions | 99 | 97 | 95 | 96 | 98 | ||
| Taxes 1/ | 99 | 98 | 92 | 96 | 101 | ||
| Other Taxes | 115 | 115 | 108 | 77 | 52 | ||
| Social Contributions | 96 | 94 | 98 | 100 | 99 | ||
| Non-Tax Revenues | 88 | 81 | 83 | 84 | 73 | ||
| Capital Revenues | 69 | 61 | 76 | 76 | 46 | ||
| Grants | 47 | 29 | 73 | 78 | 75 | ||
| Expenditures | 96 | 93 | 96 | 95 | 96 | ||
| Current Expenditures | 97 | 94 | 98 | 96 | 98 | ||
| Capital Expenditures | 87 | 84 | 88 | 82 | 84 | ||
Include PIT, CIT, VAT, Excises, and Custom Duties.
FYR Macedonia: Central Government Budget Execution Rates, 2010 - 2014
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (percent of target) | |||||||
| Total Revenues | 95 | 92 | 92 | 94 | 93 | ||
| Tax Revenues and Contributions | 99 | 97 | 95 | 96 | 98 | ||
| Taxes 1/ | 99 | 98 | 92 | 96 | 101 | ||
| Other Taxes | 115 | 115 | 108 | 77 | 52 | ||
| Social Contributions | 96 | 94 | 98 | 100 | 99 | ||
| Non-Tax Revenues | 88 | 81 | 83 | 84 | 73 | ||
| Capital Revenues | 69 | 61 | 76 | 76 | 46 | ||
| Grants | 47 | 29 | 73 | 78 | 75 | ||
| Expenditures | 96 | 93 | 96 | 95 | 96 | ||
| Current Expenditures | 97 | 94 | 98 | 96 | 98 | ||
| Capital Expenditures | 87 | 84 | 88 | 82 | 84 | ||
Include PIT, CIT, VAT, Excises, and Custom Duties.
7. Credit growth strengthened further against the backdrop of relaxed monetary conditions. Facing imported deflationary pressures, the monetary stance has been broadly accommodative, with the key policy rate unchanged at 3.25 percent and relaxation measures on certain reserve requirements in place for more than 1½ years (Figure 3). The associated decline in bank lending rates has helped revive credit growth to about 9 percent y-o-y in June 2015 from the trough reached two years ago. The steady decline in local currency to FX interest rate spreads has helped the de-euroization process of both deposits and loans (Figure 3, Box 2).
FYR Macedonia: Monetary Sector Development, 2004–2015
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: NBRM; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Autonomous liquidity is computed as the sum of net foreign assets, net public sector assets, net bank assets, other items net, minus currency in circulation. Structural liquidity is calculated as autonomous liquidity minus reserves held by banks at the central bank.
FYR Macedonia: Monetary Sector Development, 2004–2015
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: NBRM; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Autonomous liquidity is computed as the sum of net foreign assets, net public sector assets, net bank assets, other items net, minus currency in circulation. Structural liquidity is calculated as autonomous liquidity minus reserves held by banks at the central bank.FYR Macedonia: Monetary Sector Development, 2004–2015
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: NBRM; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Autonomous liquidity is computed as the sum of net foreign assets, net public sector assets, net bank assets, other items net, minus currency in circulation. Structural liquidity is calculated as autonomous liquidity minus reserves held by banks at the central bank.8. Short-term external vulnerabilities have moderated. The current account strengthened further in 2014, aided by strong export growth and resilient private transfers (Figure 4, Table 3). FDI inflows held up and more than covered the current account deficit; yet external debt edged up to almost 70 percent of GDP, reflecting public sector borrowing and rising debt component in FDI. A successful Eurobond issuance in 2014 improved reserves coverage (text chart), allowing FYR Macedonia to pre-finance its 2015 external fiscal financing needs and repay the IMF earlier than scheduled.
FYR Macedonia: External Sector Developments, 2008–2015
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: Macedonian authorities; and IMF staff calculations.
FYR Macedonia: External Sector Developments, 2008–2015
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: Macedonian authorities; and IMF staff calculations.FYR Macedonia: External Sector Developments, 2008–2015
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 242; 10.5089/9781513544663.002.A001
Sources: Macedonian authorities; and IMF staff calculations.FYR Macedonia: Balance of Payments, 2011–2020
(Millions of euros, unless otherwise indicated)
FYR Macedonia: Balance of Payments, 2011–2020
(Millions of euros, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projections | |||||||||||||||||
| Current account | −189 | −224 | −147 | −114 | −289 | −413 | −422 | −393 | −390 | −405 | |||||||
| Trade balance | −1905 | −2008 | −1858 | −1856 | −2030 | −2225 | −2345 | −2444 | −2523 | −2566 | |||||||
| Exports | 2396 | 2307 | 2370 | 2779 | 2818 | 3056 | 3401 | 3765 | 4141 | 4529 | |||||||
| Imports | 4301 | 4315 | 4228 | 4635 | 4848 | 5281 | 5746 | 6209 | 6664 | 7095 | |||||||
| Services (net) | 359 | 309 | 361 | 358 | 367 | 425 | 485 | 565 | 632 | 671 | |||||||
| Primary Income (net) | −131 | −148 | −212 | −225 | −270 | −324 | −356 | −392 | −431 | −517 | |||||||
| Secondary Income (transfers, net) | 1487 | 1622 | 1563 | 1609 | 1644 | 1711 | 1793 | 1877 | 1932 | 2007 | |||||||
| Of which | |||||||||||||||||
| Official | 77 | 60 | 74 | 83 | 72 | 77 | 77 | 75 | 76 | 76 | |||||||
| Private | 1411 | 1562 | 1488 | 1526 | 1572 | 1634 | 1716 | 1802 | 1856 | 1930 | |||||||
| Of which: Cash exchange | 1054 | 1190 | 1107 | 1093 | 1125 | 1170 | 1229 | 1290 | 1329 | 1382 | |||||||
| Capital account (net) | −2 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | |||||||
| Net lending (+) / Net borrowing (-) | −192 | −215 | −132 | −105 | −282 | −406 | −413 | −383 | −381 | −397 | |||||||
| Financial account | −511 | −338 | −72 | −482 | −125 | −605 | −640 | −468 | −452 | −535 | |||||||
| Direct investment (net) | −345 | −117 | −264 | −278 | −276 | −289 | −332 | −370 | −401 | −436 | |||||||
| Portfolio investment (net) | 76 | −77 | 159 | −482 | 175 | −282 | −188 | −116 | −144 | −146 | |||||||
| Of which: Eurobonds amortizations | 0 | 0 | 175 | 0 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Of which: Eurobonds disbursements | 0 | 0 | 0 | 491 | 0 | 300 | 200 | 125 | 150 | 150 | |||||||
| Other investment | −242 | −144 | 32 | 279 | −24 | −34 | −120 | 18 | 93 | 47 | |||||||
| Trade credits (net) | 40 | −156 | 113 | 0 | −113 | −65 | −68 | −72 | −76 | −80 | |||||||
| MLT loans (net) | −528 | −43 | −341 | −65 | −105 | −204 | −294 | −130 | −60 | −98 | |||||||
| Public sector | −378 | −57 | −282 | 36 | 148 | 127 | 79 | 111 | 72 | 48 | |||||||
| Disbursements | 457 | 161 | 379 | 117 | 71 | 74 | 70 | 110 | 110 | 110 | |||||||
| of which: IMF credit | 221 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Amortization | −89 | −99 | −102 | −149 | −219 | −201 | −149 | −221 | −182 | −158 | |||||||
| Banks | −53 | 26 | −26 | −19 | 10 | −45 | −63 | −57 | −85 | −95 | |||||||
| Other sectors | −97 | −13 | −33 | −82 | −263 | −286 | −310 | −184 | −47 | −52 | |||||||
| ST loans (net) | 25 | −48 | 16 | 2 | −36 | −37 | −39 | −41 | −43 | −46 | |||||||
| Currency and deposits (net) | 220 | 104 | 245 | 342 | 230 | 272 | 281 | 261 | 272 | 271 | |||||||
| Of which: Commercial banks | 87 | −124 | 28 | 81 | −5 | 35 | 37 | 22 | 31 | 30 | |||||||
| Other (net) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Errors and omissions | 12 | 19 | 16 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Overall Balance | 331 | 142 | −44 | 409 | −157 | 200 | 228 | 84 | 71 | 139 | |||||||
| (Percent of GDP) | |||||||||||||||||
| Current account | −2.5 | −2.9 | −1.8 | −1.3 | −3.2 | −4.4 | −4.3 | −3.8 | −3.6 | −3.5 | |||||||
| Of which | |||||||||||||||||
| Goods and services balance | −20.5 | −22.4 | −18.5 | −17.6 | −18.7 | −19.3 | −19.0 | −18.3 | −17.4 | −16.5 | |||||||
| Private transfers | 18.7 | 20.6 | 18.3 | 17.9 | 17.6 | 17.5 | 17.6 | 17.5 | 17.1 | 16.8 | |||||||
| FDI (net) | 4.6 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | |||||||
| (Percentage change, year-on-year) | |||||||||||||||||
| Exports of G&S (Value) | 26.1 | −2.0 | 4.0 | 15.6 | 5.9 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 8.6 | |||||||
| Volume | 16.1 | 2.0 | −2.7 | 17.0 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | |||||||
| Price | 8.6 | −3.8 | 6.9 | −1.2 | −1.6 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | |||||||
| Imports of G&S (Value) | 20.8 | 1.7 | −1.3 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 6.7 | |||||||
| Volume | 8.0 | 8.2 | −10.0 | 14.5 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.3 | |||||||
| Price | 11.9 | −6.0 | 9.7 | −3.1 | −0.4 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |||||||
| Terms of trade (2008=100) | 93.7 | 95.9 | 93.4 | 95.3 | 94.1 | 95.0 | 96.0 | 97.1 | 97.7 | 97.9 | |||||||
| Memorandum Items: | |||||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP | 7544 | 7585 | 8112 | 8533 | 8912 | 9322 | 9776 | 10278 | 10844 | 11481 | |||||||
| ST debt at residual maturity (year-end) | 2059 | 2382 | 2073 | 2287 | 2043 | 2044 | 2284 | 2314 | 2130 | 2252 | |||||||
| Gross foreign exchange reserves | 2069 | 2193 | 1993 | 2434 | 2277 | 2476 | 2704 | 2789 | 2859 | 2998 | |||||||
| Months of prospective imports of G&S | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.7 | |||||||
| Percent of short-term debt (residual maturity) | 112.1 | 101.0 | 106.5 | 115.8 | 111.4 | 121.2 | 118.4 | 120.5 | 134.2 | 133.1 | |||||||
| External debt (percent of GDP) | 64.2 | 68.2 | 64.3 | 69.8 | 68.3 | 72.2 | 75.6 | 76.1 | 75.9 | 75.6 | |||||||
| Medium and long-term | 45.7 | 48.5 | 49.3 | 54.6 | 49.1 | 52.9 | 56.1 | 56.5 | 56.2 | 56.0 | |||||||
| Short-term | 18.5 | 19.7 | 15.0 | 15.2 | 19.2 | 19.4 | 19.5 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | |||||||
| External debt service | 1718 | 1892 | 2214 | 1917 | 2147 | 2095 | 2101 | 2345 | 2378 | 2475 | |||||||
| Percent of exports of G&S | 49.9 | 56.1 | 63.1 | 47.2 | 50.0 | 43.2 | 38.0 | 37.8 | 34.9 | 33.5 | |||||||
| Percent of exports of G&S and transfers | 35.4 | 38.3 | 44.3 | 34.3 | 36.6 | 32.3 | 29.0 | 29.3 | 27.4 | 26.5 | |||||||
FYR Macedonia: Balance of Payments, 2011–2020
(Millions of euros, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projections | |||||||||||||||||
| Current account | −189 | −224 | −147 | −114 | −289 | −413 | −422 | −393 | −390 | −405 | |||||||
| Trade balance | −1905 | −2008 | −1858 | −1856 | −2030 | −2225 | −2345 | −2444 | −2523 | −2566 | |||||||
| Exports | 2396 | 2307 | 2370 | 2779 | 2818 | 3056 | 3401 | 3765 | 4141 | 4529 | |||||||
| Imports | 4301 | 4315 | 4228 | 4635 | 4848 | 5281 | 5746 | 6209 | 6664 | 7095 | |||||||
| Services (net) | 359 | 309 | 361 | 358 | 367 | 425 | 485 | 565 | 632 | 671 | |||||||
| Primary Income (net) | −131 | −148 | −212 | −225 | −270 | −324 | −356 | −392 | −431 | −517 | |||||||
| Secondary Income (transfers, net) | 1487 | 1622 | 1563 | 1609 | 1644 | 1711 | 1793 | 1877 | 1932 | 2007 | |||||||
| Of which | |||||||||||||||||
| Official | 77 | 60 | 74 | 83 | 72 | 77 | 77 | 75 | 76 | 76 | |||||||
| Private | 1411 | 1562 | 1488 | 1526 | 1572 | 1634 | 1716 | 1802 | 1856 | 1930 | |||||||
| Of which: Cash exchange | 1054 | 1190 | 1107 | 1093 | 1125 | 1170 | 1229 | 1290 | 1329 | 1382 | |||||||
| Capital account (net) | −2 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | |||||||
| Net lending (+) / Net borrowing (-) | −192 | −215 | −132 | −105 | −282 | −406 | −413 | −383 | −381 | −397 | |||||||
| Financial account | −511 | −338 | −72 | −482 | −125 | −605 | −640 | −468 | −452 | −535 | |||||||
| Direct investment (net) | −345 | −117 | −264 | −278 | −276 | −289 | −332 | −370 | −401 | −436 | |||||||
| Portfolio investment (net) | 76 | −77 | 159 | −482 | 175 | −282 | −188 | −116 | −144 | −146 | |||||||
| Of which: Eurobonds amortizations | 0 | 0 | 175 | 0 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Of which: Eurobonds disbursements | 0 | 0 | 0 | 491 | 0 | 300 | 200 | 125 | 150 | 150 | |||||||
| Other investment | −242 | −144 | 32 | 279 | −24 | −34 | −120 | 18 | 93 | 47 | |||||||
| Trade credits (net) | 40 | −156 | 113 | 0 | −113 | −65 | −68 | −72 | −76 | −80 | |||||||
| MLT loans (net) | −528 | −43 | −341 | −65 | −105 | −204 | −294 | −130 | −60 | −98 | |||||||
| Public sector | −378 | −57 | −282 | 36 | 148 | 127 | 79 | 111 | 72 | 48 | |||||||
| Disbursements | 457 | 161 | 379 | 117 | 71 | 74 | 70 | 110 | 110 | 110 | |||||||
| of which: IMF credit | 221 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Amortization | −89 | −99 | −102 | −149 | −219 | −201 | −149 | −221 | −182 | −158 | |||||||
| Banks | −53 | 26 | −26 | −19 | 10 | −45 | −63 | −57 | −85 | −95 | |||||||
| Other sectors | −97 | −13 | −33 | −82 | −263 | −286 | −310 | −184 | −47 | −52 | |||||||
| ST loans (net) | 25 | −48 | 16 | 2 | −36 | −37 | −39 | −41 | −43 | −46 | |||||||
| Currency and deposits (net) | 220 | 104 | 245 | 342 | 230 | 272 | 281 | 261 | 272 | 271 | |||||||
| Of which: Commercial banks | 87 | −124 | 28 | 81 | −5 | 35 | 37 | 22 | 31 | 30 | |||||||
| Other (net) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Errors and omissions | 12 | 19 | 16 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Overall Balance | 331 | 142 | −44 | 409 | −157 | 200 | 228 | 84 | 71 | 139 | |||||||
| (Percent of GDP) | |||||||||||||||||
| Current account | −2.5 | −2.9 | −1.8 | −1.3 | −3.2 | −4.4 | −4.3 | −3.8 | −3.6 | −3.5 | |||||||
| Of which | |||||||||||||||||
| Goods and services balance | −20.5 | −22.4 | −18.5 | −17.6 | −18.7 | −19.3 | −19.0 | −18.3 | −17.4 | −16.5 | |||||||
| Private transfers | 18.7 | 20.6 | 18.3 | 17.9 | 17.6 | 17.5 | 17.6 | 17.5 | 17.1 | 16.8 | |||||||
| FDI (net) | 4.6 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | |||||||
| (Percentage change, year-on-year) | |||||||||||||||||
| Exports of G&S (Value) | 26.1 | −2.0 | 4.0 | 15.6 | 5.9 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 8.6 | |||||||
| Volume | 16.1 | 2.0 | −2.7 | 17.0 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | |||||||
| Price | 8.6 | −3.8 | 6.9 | −1.2 | −1.6 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | |||||||
| Imports of G&S (Value) | 20.8 | 1.7 | −1.3 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 6.7 | |||||||
| Volume | 8.0 | 8.2 | −10.0 | 14.5 | 7.7 | ||||||||||||