Abstract
Context: Over the past two decades, Kazakhstan has successfully harnessed its oil resources to bolster economic growth, increase buffers, and reduce poverty. However, in the face of recent large and likely long-lasting external shocks?lower oil prices, Russia slowdown, and corollary exchange rate (ER) movements (ruble depreciation, dollar appreciation)-growth has decelerated rapidly, financial conditions have tightened, and pressures on the balance of payments and exchange rate have built up. The shocks have also increased financial sector vulnerabilities, where nonperforming loans (NPLs), while declining significantly, remain high, and rising balance sheet risks and tight exchange rate management, have put further drag on banks' lending and economic activity. Nevertheless, more recently, and in response to reduced currency pressures and reduced spreads, the authorities successfully tapped the international capital markets and widened the ER band. Focus of consultation and key recommendations: The consultation focused on calibrating the policy response to address Kazakhstan's near-term challenges and long-term goals of becoming a dynamic emerging market economy. Principally, there is need to (i) identify credible medium-term fiscal consolidation measures to ensure sustainability; (ii) introduce greater exchange rate flexibility to help the economy absorb current and future external shocks; (iii) bolster financial sector resilience to limit adverse spillovers back to the real sector; and (iv) implement structural reforms to ensure durable growth and shared prosperity. Previous consultation: During the 2014 Article IV Consultation, Directors stressed the importance of restoring confidence in the post-devaluation environment and further strengthening the policy frameworks to bolster the economy's resilience to shocks. Specifically, Directors (i) urged appropriate supervisory actions to enforce the NPL ceilings effectively, while ensuring adequate provisions; (ii) highlighted the need to speed up the introduction of a new policy interest rate instrument; (iii) stressed the need to enhance fiscal coverage and integration into a consistent macro-fiscal framework; and (iv) noted the priority of strengthening human capital and institutions, and lowering the role of the state in the economy. Since then, the authorities' resolute efforts on lowering NPLs have begun to pay off, and important early steps have been taken to enhance monetary policy operations, ER flexibility, and communication. Progress in bolstering the fiscal policy framework, however, has been slow. The authorities have also embarked on an ambitious structural reform program and recently completed negotiations to join the WTO within 2015.
Relations with the Fund
(As of June 29, 2015)
Membership status
Joined: 07/15/92; Accepted Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4 in 1996 and maintains an exchange system free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions. The de jure exchange rate arrangement is a managed float, while the de facto arrangement is classified as stabilized.
General Resources Account:
| SDR Million | Percent Quota | |
|---|---|---|
| Quota | 427.80 | 100.00 |
| Fund holdings of currency | 412.28 | 96.37 |
| Reserve position in the Fund | 15.53 | 3.63 |
| SDR Million | Percent Quota | |
|---|---|---|
| Quota | 427.80 | 100.00 |
| Fund holdings of currency | 412.28 | 96.37 |
| Reserve position in the Fund | 15.53 | 3.63 |
SDR Department:
| SDR Million | Percent Allocation | |
|---|---|---|
| Net cumulative allocation | 343.65 | 100.00 |
| Holdings | 348.31 | 101.36 |
| SDR Million | Percent Allocation | |
|---|---|---|
| Net cumulative allocation | 343.65 | 100.00 |
| Holdings | 348.31 | 101.36 |
Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None
Latest Financial Arrangements (in millions of SDR):
| Type | Arrangement | Date | Amount Approved (SDR million) | Amount Drawn (SDR million) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECF | 12/13/99 | 3/19/02 | 6/04/96 | 0.00 |
| ECF | 7/17/96 | 7/16/99 | 309.40 | 154.70 |
| Stand-By | 6/05/95 | 6/04/96 | 185.60 | 185.60 |
| Type | Arrangement | Date | Amount Approved (SDR million) | Amount Drawn (SDR million) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECF | 12/13/99 | 3/19/02 | 6/04/96 | 0.00 |
| ECF | 7/17/96 | 7/16/99 | 309.40 | 154.70 |
| Stand-By | 6/05/95 | 6/04/96 | 185.60 | 185.60 |
Projected Payments to Fund: None
Safeguards Assessments:
Not applicable to the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) at this time.
Exchange Rate Arrangements:
The currency of Kazakhstan is the tenge, which was introduced in November 1993. The official exchange rate is determined on the basis of foreign exchange auctions that are held daily. Auctions are held for U.S. dollars, euros, and Russian rubles, and official rates are quoted for over 30 other currencies on the basis of cross-rates. From late 1999 to October 2007, the exchange rate regime was a managed float with no preannounced path. From October 2007 the tenge was maintained within a narrow range against the U.S. dollar. In February 2009, the tenge was devalued by 18 percent against the U.S. dollar, and a trading band of T150/USD +/- 3 percent was established. In February 2010, the trading band was widened and set at an asymmetric T150/USD +10/-15 percent. In February 2011, the trading band was officially abolished, and the de jure exchange rate arrangement was changed from a pegged exchange rate within horizontal bands to a managed float. Between September 2013 and February 2014, the tenge was managed within an unofficial 2 percent band against a basket of currencies comprised of the U.S. dollar (70 percent), the euro (20 percent), and the Russian ruble (10 percent). Since February 2014 (following an 18 percent devaluation against the U.S. dollar), the tenge has stabilized within a trading band of T185/USD +/- 3 tenge/USD. In September 2014, the band was asymmetrically widened to T170-188/USD. The de facto exchange rate has been reclassified from a crawl-like to a stabilized arrangement, effective February 11, 2014. The NBK may conduct foreign exchange operations both on the regulated Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) and in the interbank foreign exchange markets. The NBK intervenes on its own behalf directly with market participants based on their quotes and does not publish information on its interventions. The exchange system is free from restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions.
Article IV Consultation:
Kazakhstan is on the standard 12-month consultation cycle, in accordance with the Decision on Article IV Consultation Cycles (Decision No. 14747-(10/96) (9/28/2010). The last consultation was concluded on July 21, 2014 (see IMF Country Report No. 14/242).
FSAP Participation and ROSCS:
Kazakhstan participated in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) in 2000. The staff report on the Financial Sector Stability Assessment (FSSA) was issued on November 27, 2000 (FO/DIS/00/142). The FSSA included the following ROSC modules: Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision, Core Principles for Systemically Important Payment Systems, Code of Good Practices on Transparency in Monetary and Financial Policies, IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation, and IAIS Insurance Core Principles. FSAP Updates were conducted in February 2004, March 2008, and February 2014. The fiscal transparency module was completed in October 2002 and the final report published in April 2003. A data module mission took place in April/May 2002, and its final report was published in March 2003. An update of the data ROSC was undertaken in 2006 and the report was published in February 2008 (IMF Country Report No. 08/56, Annex V).
AML/CFT Assessment:
Kazakhstan’s anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) framework was assessed against the AML/CFT standard, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) 40+9 Recommendations. The evaluation was conducted by the Eurasian Group on money laundering and financing of terrorism (EAG), the FATF-style regional body of which Kazakhstan is a member, and the final mutual evaluation report was adopted in June 2011. The report indicates that the main sources of criminal proceeds in Kazakhstan are crimes related to fraud and abuse of public office. The evaluators found that Kazakhstan had a relatively comprehensive AML/CFT framework in place, but that significant deficiencies nevertheless remained, notably with respect to customer due diligence measures and the reporting of suspicious transactions. Kazakhstan is tentatively scheduled to undergo its next AML/CFT assessment by the EAG in April 2017.
Technical Assistance:
Kazakhstan has received technical assistance and training by the Fund in virtually every area of economic policy, including through over 90 technical assistance missions provided during 1993-2014 by FAD, LEG, MCM, STA, and the IMF Institute. In addition to short-term missions, the Fund has provided resident advisors to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, to the Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, to the ministry of finance, and a peripatetic expert to the Financial Supervision Agency. Other international agencies and governments, including the World Bank, EU TACIS, EBRD, UNDP, ADB, and OECD, also are providing a wide variety of technical assistance. The following list summarizes the technical assistance provided by the Fund to Kazakhstan since 2003.
Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Technical assistance has enabled steady progress in a number of areas related to monetary and exchange affairs, including banking legislation, central bank accounting, payments system reform, central bank organization and management, foreign operations and reserve management, banking supervision, monetary statistics, currency issuance, monetary operations, and money-market development.
5. September 2004: Bringing banking prudential regulation up to EU standards.
6. September 2004: Implementing inflation targeting: next steps.
7. November 2007: Strengthening banking supervision and risk assessment. 2009-12: Developing banking sector stress testing. The initial mission in January 2009 was followed up by a number of visits by a peripatetic expert to the FSA over the course of 2009-12.
8. November 2010: Reducing nonperforming loans in the banking system (joint with LEG).
9. February 2013-14: Resolving banking system problem assets. Posting of a long-term expert (one year) to the Fund for problem loans, financed by the Japanese government (JSA).
10. November 2014: Enhancing the monetary policy framework (needs assessment mission).
11. March 2015: Liquidity forecasting.
12. March-April 2015: Enhancing the monetary policy framework.
13. June-July 2015: Modeling and forecasting.
Fiscal Affairs Department
The Fiscal Affairs Department has given advice to Kazakhstan in the areas of tax and expenditure administration, the establishment of a treasury system, public financial management, accounting reform, IT system functionality, and the introduction of a social safety net.
14. April 2003: Customs administration.
15. September 2004: Treasury reform process.
16. 2011-14: Technical assistance provided by IMF regional advisor on public financial management.
17. May 2014: HQ-led PFM mission on fiscal risk management, IPSAS and accrual accounting.
18. September-October 2014: Accrual accounting and reporting for tax and customs revenues.
19. May-June 2015: Accrual budgeting and public-private partnership (PPP) issues.
Statistics
The Fund’s technical assistance program in statistics has focused on the development of the institutional framework appropriate to the needs of a market economy. The assistance has concentrated on establishing procedures for collecting and compiling monetary, government finance, balance of payments (including external trade), and national accounts.
20. January 2006: Real sector and balance of payments statistics.
21. August 2006: Real sector statistics.
22. December 2006: ROSC update mission (and DQAF).
23. April 2008: GFSM 2001 implementation.
24. January 2009: Monetary statistics.
25. April 2011: BOP statistics.
26. July 2013: Government finance statistics.
27. November 2014: Government finance statistics.
28. April 2015: Monetary and financial statistics.
29. June 2015: National accounts statistics.
Legal Department
30. April 2008: Reforms to tax law.
April 2010: Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (jointly with the World Bank and United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime).
31. November 2010: Reducing nonperforming loans in the banking system (joint with MCM).
32. July 2011: Bankruptcy legislation.
IMF Institute
Kazakhstani officials have participated in courses in Washington and at the Vienna Institute in the areas of macroeconomic management, expenditure control, financial programming, taxation, statistics, and others. In addition, the IMF Institute has conducted courses in the region. Seminars and training sessions have also been conducted by MCM and STA technical assistance missions.
Resident Representative
The position was terminated in August 2003, but the Fund maintains a local office in Almaty.
Relations with the World Bank
(As of June 20, 2015)
Kazakhstan became a member of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA) in July 1992 and a member of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in September 1993. In 2010 Kazakhstan became an IDA donor under the IDA16 replenishment. Kazakhstan is the largest client of the IFC in Central Asia.
IBRD in Kazakhstan
The Bank’s lending operations in Kazakhstan are aligned with the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for FY12-17, endorsed by the Board in May 2012. As of June 2015, the IBRD loan program comprised seventeen projects with a total commitment of US$3.9 billion, of which US$2.1 billion has been disbursed. While 90 percent of the commitments are concentrated in the on-going Southwest roads project and the East-West roads project, the portfolio remains diverse with two-thirds of the projects focused on institutional building. The other fifteen projects are: SME Competitiveness, technology commercialization, fostering productive innovations, customs development, tax administration reform, health sector technology transfer and institutional reform, technical and vocational education modernization, Youth Corp, skills and jobs, statistical capacity building, Ust-Kamenogorsk environmental remediation, forest protection and reforestation, energy efficiency, second irrigation and drainage, and justice sector institutional strengthening.
The Bank also provides extensive advisory and analytical services (AAA) to the Government through the Joint Economic Research Program (JERP). The JERP is instrumental in providing policy analysis, strategic planning expertise, and good practice options to assist the Government with the reform agenda in the field of economic and social development and the institutional capacity of the Government to conduct economic and sectoral work. The JERP for FY15 amounted to over US$10.5 million and comprised 35 largely interrelated and programmatic activities focusing on the Government’s strategic priorities in financial sector development, strengthening of the private sector, fostering of science and innovations, development of skills for the labor market, attraction of investments into economy and development of PPP, sustainable environmental development, implementation of institutional reforms in public administration, and regional cooperation.
IFC in Kazakhstan
In the context of the CPS for FY12-17, IFC’s role is to contribute to the government’s development plans by supporting the private sector to advance economic diversification and growth agenda, particularly in the non-extractive sectors and frontier regions. In the short term IFC is focusing on strengthening the financial sector, both in the context of the post-crisis recovery and as a prerequisite to pursue the diversification agenda, and infrastructure development, including through public private partnerships (PPPs). In the medium term more efforts will be dedicated to the establishment of best practices in international banking, improvement of the corporate governance and the regulatory environment, SMEs development, increasing investments in value-added manufacturing, agribusiness and services, and supporting the energy efficiency.
IFC’s investment program has been expanding in the context of the crisis response. It grew tenfold between FY05 and FY08 (to US$110 million) and nearly doubled again in FY09. In FY10, IFC invested a record US$336 million in five projects in the financial and agribusiness sectors, with vast majority provided to commercial banks. Post-crisis IFC’s investment level has moderated and averaged at about US$100 million per year in FY11-13. As of June 2015, Kazakhstan remains IFC’s largest client in Central Asia with total committed portfolio of US$246 million, of which US$245 million is outstanding. The investment portfolio is mostly concentrated in the financial sector, infrastructure, general manufacturing and consumer services, although IFC has begun making investments in the agribusiness sector as well.
Relations with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
(As of June 16, 2015)
Kazakhstan is one of the largest countries of operations of the EBRD, with about US$ 7 billion invested over the last 21 years, and is demonstrating strong reform momentum. In June 2014, EBRD signed the Enhance Partnership Framework Arrangement with the Government of Kazakhstan for re-energizing reforms. This has enabled EBRD to deliver increased transition impact through policy dialogue and a higher level of investment within EBRD’s country strategy.
In Kazakhstan, EBRD has the following priorities:
Diversification and support for the non-resource sector. The EBRD is already the largest investor in the non-oil and gas sector of the economy. We will continue to support the development of other sectors by financing projects that enhance productivity in the corporate sector, improve the business environment, promote modernization of the agribusiness sector along the entire value chain and facilitate growth of the SME sector. The EBRD will also work to further develop the banking and non-banking financial sectors.
Balancing the role of the state and the market. The EBRD will seek to assist the Kazakh authorities in balancing the roles of the state and the market by supporting growth of private sector enterprises. The EBRD will also support policies aimed at commercializing public enterprises and making them more efficient, as well as upgrading infrastructure ensuring appropriate sharing of risks between the private and public sectors.
Promoting low-carbon growth and energy efficiency. The Government’s recently announced Green Economy Strategy is a top national priority and the EBRD will assist in implementing key aspects of the strategy through projects in energy, renewables, agriculture, water, waste management, transport, and other sectors.
The EBRD is already working to address these issues. Thanks to the EBRD’s support, nearly 60 percent of Almaty’s urban transport is now environmentally friendly. We are working with clients in agribusiness sector such as RG Brands; supporting private sector’s involvement in infrastructure, such as Olzha and Eastcomtrans, the rail car providers; helping to contribute to the energy efficiency of the power sector by financing clients like CAEPCO; and working on renewable energy both in terms of policy dialogue and project financing. The EBRD’s Small Business Support program has provided consulting support to over a thousand two hundred private enterprises, and with donor funds from the Kazakh government is now present in 7 regions of Kazakhstan—expanding to 9 by the end of 2015. The EBRD is working on expanding its program of SME financing through local partner banks.
As well as being a country where the EBRD works, Kazakhstan is also an EBRD donor. In 2013 the Kazakh government signed a €6 million agreement for Technical Cooperation funding, principally supporting policy dialogue objectives in Kazakhstan with a primary focus on transport, telecommunications, and energy efficiency. The fund has a co-financing arrangement with the EBRD Shareholder Special Fund. In 2015 EBRD received Euro 41 Million for technical advisory and support of the Small Business Program under the Enhanced Partnership Framework.
Relations with the Asian Development Bank
(As of June 16, 2015)
Kazakhstan became a member of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 1994. In the early years of transition from a centrally planned to a more market-driven economy, ADB focused on efforts to sustain a higher growth rate, promote environmental friendly development, support the private sector, and encourage regional integration.
As of June 2015, cumulative public sector loan commitments to Kazakhstan amounted to about US$3.1 billion, of which about US$2.2 billion has been disbursed. Commitments cover 26 public sector loan operations in agriculture and natural resources, education, finance, transport and communications, water supply and sanitation, irrigation, and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These loans were complemented with 80 technical assistance (TA) projects amounting to about US$33.1 million. Kazakhstan is eligible for the ordinary capital resources (OCR) only. Kazakhstan became a donor to the Asian Development Fund, ADB’s concessional financing resource, with a US$5.49 million contribution in 2012.
Both, the PFA and ADB’s current country partnership strategy (CPS) for 2012-16, aim to support economic diversification, sustainable development and inclusive growth. ADB’s focus is in the transport, finance, urban, and energy sectors. As knowledge solutions are central to the CPS, the government and ADB established a joint Knowledge and Experience Exchange Program (KEEP) in 2013. The KEEP commits the parties to a cost-sharing arrangement with a total financing of US$2.5 million for 2013-17.
In the transport sector, ADB has been supporting Kazakhstan in realizing its transit potential and integration into the global transport network via two multitranche financing facilities (MFFs) totaling US$1.5 billion to improve road networks in two regions of Kazakhstan (Zhambyl and Mangystau), along the CAREC Transport Corridors 1 and 2. This is complemented by 2 stand-alone loans in the total amount of $220 million. Five projects are under implementation with some sections completed and in use. Once fully completed, the projects will contribute to increased external trade and economic development.
In 2010, ADB approved a US$500 million MFF for the SME Investment Program to enhance efficiency and competitiveness of the financial sector and SMEs. Tranche 1 in the amount of US$150 million was provided to the DAMU Entrepreneurship Development Fund for onlending to three participating financial institutions (PFIs), and was fully disbursed in April 2013. A subsequent tranche 2 amounting to US$122 million was approved in December 2013, and tranche 3 amounting to US$130 million was approved in December 2014 with an additional financing of US$98 million currently being processed. Currency and interest rate risks are mitigated through local currency-denominated, fixed-rate loans.
In the energy sector, ADB is focusing on energy efficiency, and providing technical assistance on modernization of district heating networks and on institutional capacity development.
In addition to the KEEP, knowledge partnerships were established through two major studies (one on Kazakhstan’s industrial policy, and the other on knowledge-based economy) to promote a constructive dialogue among high-level policy makers and share lessons and best practices of other developing member countries and advanced economies, with the aim of exploring appropriate future policy options and to improve planning strategies. At the sector level, advisory support is being provided for financing urban infrastructure in secondary cities.
Private sector operations of ADB in Kazakhstan began in 2006, with private sector financing to six entities in the financial and agribusiness sectors amounting to US$455.2 million approved to-date. Near-term ADB private sector financing prospects are in private infrastructure and energy sectors.
Kazakhstan was one of the four founding partners of the CAREC Program in 1997 (together with the People’s Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan). Since then, six other countries have joined the partnership, and CAREC-related investments in the partner countries have totaled US$24.2 billion, over the period 2001-14. Four of the six CAREC road and rail corridors traverse Kazakhstan, and developing these Central Asian corridors is a priority for achieving CAREC’s goal of land bridges connecting Europe and Asia. In October 2013, Kazakhstan hosted the twelfth CAREC Ministerial Conference in Astana which brought together the ministers of the 10 member countries to discuss the progress of CAREC.
In May 2014, Kazakhstan hosted the ADB Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors. About 3,000 participants attended the event and discussed connectivity, innovation, and the need to keep up with the demands of a changing Asia and Pacific.
Statistical Issues
(As of July 7, 2015)
| I. Assessment of Data Adequacy for Surveillance | |
|---|---|
| General: Data provision has some shortcomings, but is broadly adequate for surveillance. The most affected areas are balance of payments and national accounts. | |
| National accounts: The Committee on Statistics (CS) has made considerable progress in improving the statistical infrastructure and updating the business register with full coverage of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs. Annual estimates of oil and gas sector are compiled and disseminated—but only in Russian, following international standards. However, the contribution of the oil sector to the GDP is understated since taxes on oil and gas products have not been included. Addressing also other tax-related issues identified by the last STA TA mission would increase the absolute value of GDP. The CS also compiles quarterly GDP, but on a cumulative basis—instead of discrete basis and using “comparable prices” instead of fixed base or previous year prices. | |
| Price Statistics: The quality of consumer price statistics is affected by occasional use of administrative price controls. Typically, for each good or service administrative controls are imposed on the variety that is included in the CPI basket. Since producers/importers are not compensated by the government for any losses due to the price controls, they may switch to non-controlled varieties and/or compensate by increasing the prices of non-controlled varieties. | |
| Government finance statistics: Progress has been made in the classification of the fiscal accounts consistent with the Fund’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001). Over the last two years the authorities have expanded coverage of data reported for the Government Finance Statistics Yearbook to include both the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan and State Social Insurance Fund, and consequently are now able to report annual data for to the whole of the consolidated general government, including a financial balance sheet. However, statistics on the enlarged government (including public enterprises) is not available. | |
| Monetary statistics: The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) reports the Standardized Report Forms (SRFs) 1SR for the central bank and 2SR for other depository corporations (ODCs) on a monthly basis for publication in IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) with a lag of about one month. The last mission on monetary and financial statistics, which took place in April 2015 assisted the NBK to develop a framework for compiling SRF 4SR for other financial corporations (OFCs). The NBK agreed to report quarterly SRF 4SR for publication in IFS by end-December 2015. While good progress has been made on data compilation and dissemination, more efforts are required to address the remaining inconsistencies in the reporting of inter-bank positions, which are due to the lack of information on the counterpart sector of certain transactions. Financial sector surveillance: Kazakhstan participates in the IMF’s Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS), and Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS). The country reports 34 financial soundness indicators (FSIs) for posting on the IMF’s FSI website on a quarterly basis—all 12 core FSIs and 11 of the 13 encouraged FSIs for deposit takers, and 11 encouraged FSIs for other sectors and markets (two FSIs for OFCs, four FSIs for nonfinancial corporations, two FSIs for households, and three FSIs for real estate markets). | |
| Balance of payments: The authorities have transitioned to the compilation of balance of payments in concordance with the sixth edition of Balance of Payments Statistics Manual (BPM6) starting 2013. The NBK is reporting quarterly BOP and IIP data, Reserves Template, and participates in the World Bank’s Quarterly External Debt Statistics (QEDS). Deficiencies remain in direct investment statistics as local branch offices of foreign companies operating in the construction sector are considered nonresident entities. This leads to discrepancies with national accounts statistics where this activity is treated as domestic production. In external debt statistics, there are discrepancies between data compiled by different governmental agencies owing to methodological differences, including coverage of external debt of publicly-owned corporations. Statistical treatment of trade within the customs union is not accurate, which has contributed to large and increasing errors and omissions. The authorities are cooperating with relevant agencies in the customs union partner countries to resolve these problems. | |
| II. Data Standards and Quality | |
| Kazakhstan subscribes to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) since March 2003. | Data ROSC published in 2008. |
| I. Assessment of Data Adequacy for Surveillance | |
|---|---|
| General: Data provision has some shortcomings, but is broadly adequate for surveillance. The most affected areas are balance of payments and national accounts. | |
| National accounts: The Committee on Statistics (CS) has made considerable progress in improving the statistical infrastructure and updating the business register with full coverage of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs. Annual estimates of oil and gas sector are compiled and disseminated—but only in Russian, following international standards. However, the contribution of the oil sector to the GDP is understated since taxes on oil and gas products have not been included. Addressing also other tax-related issues identified by the last STA TA mission would increase the absolute value of GDP. The CS also compiles quarterly GDP, but on a cumulative basis—instead of discrete basis and using “comparable prices” instead of fixed base or previous year prices. | |
| Price Statistics: The quality of consumer price statistics is affected by occasional use of administrative price controls. Typically, for each good or service administrative controls are imposed on the variety that is included in the CPI basket. Since producers/importers are not compensated by the government for any losses due to the price controls, they may switch to non-controlled varieties and/or compensate by increasing the prices of non-controlled varieties. | |
| Government finance statistics: Progress has been made in the classification of the fiscal accounts consistent with the Fund’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001). Over the last two years the authorities have expanded coverage of data reported for the Government Finance Statistics Yearbook to include both the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan and State Social Insurance Fund, and consequently are now able to report annual data for to the whole of the consolidated general government, including a financial balance sheet. However, statistics on the enlarged government (including public enterprises) is not available. | |
| Monetary statistics: The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) reports the Standardized Report Forms (SRFs) 1SR for the central bank and 2SR for other depository corporations (ODCs) on a monthly basis for publication in IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) with a lag of about one month. The last mission on monetary and financial statistics, which took place in April 2015 assisted the NBK to develop a framework for compiling SRF 4SR for other financial corporations (OFCs). The NBK agreed to report quarterly SRF 4SR for publication in IFS by end-December 2015. While good progress has been made on data compilation and dissemination, more efforts are required to address the remaining inconsistencies in the reporting of inter-bank positions, which are due to the lack of information on the counterpart sector of certain transactions. Financial sector surveillance: Kazakhstan participates in the IMF’s Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS), and Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS). The country reports 34 financial soundness indicators (FSIs) for posting on the IMF’s FSI website on a quarterly basis—all 12 core FSIs and 11 of the 13 encouraged FSIs for deposit takers, and 11 encouraged FSIs for other sectors and markets (two FSIs for OFCs, four FSIs for nonfinancial corporations, two FSIs for households, and three FSIs for real estate markets). | |
| Balance of payments: The authorities have transitioned to the compilation of balance of payments in concordance with the sixth edition of Balance of Payments Statistics Manual (BPM6) starting 2013. The NBK is reporting quarterly BOP and IIP data, Reserves Template, and participates in the World Bank’s Quarterly External Debt Statistics (QEDS). Deficiencies remain in direct investment statistics as local branch offices of foreign companies operating in the construction sector are considered nonresident entities. This leads to discrepancies with national accounts statistics where this activity is treated as domestic production. In external debt statistics, there are discrepancies between data compiled by different governmental agencies owing to methodological differences, including coverage of external debt of publicly-owned corporations. Statistical treatment of trade within the customs union is not accurate, which has contributed to large and increasing errors and omissions. The authorities are cooperating with relevant agencies in the customs union partner countries to resolve these problems. | |
| II. Data Standards and Quality | |
| Kazakhstan subscribes to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) since March 2003. | Data ROSC published in 2008. |
Kazakhstan: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of July 7, 2015)
Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discounts rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes, and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.
Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).
Reflects the assessment provided in the update of the data ROSC published in February 2008, based on the findings of the mission that took place during November 29-December 13, 2006 for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO); largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).
Same as footnote 8, except referring to international standards concerning (respectively) source data, assessment of source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs, and revision studies.
Kazakhstan: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of July 7, 2015)
| Memo Items | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date of latest observation | Date received | Frequency of Data7 | Frequency of Reporting7 | Frequency of publication7 | Data Quality-Methodological Soundness8 | Data Quality-Accuracy and Reliability9 | |
| Exchange Rates | 05/27/14 | 05/27/14 | D | D | M | ||
| International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities1 | 05/31/15 | 06/30/15 | M | M | M | ||
| Reserve/Base Money | 05/31/15 | 06/30/15 | M | M | M | O, O, LO, LO | O, O, O, O, O |
| Broad Money | 05/31/15 | 06/30/15 | M | M | M | ||
| Central Bank Balance Sheet | 05/31/15 | 06/30/15 | M | M | M | ||
| Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System | 05/31/15 | 06/30/15 | M | M | M | ||
| Interest Rates2 | 05/31/15 | 06/30/15 | M | M | M | ||
| Consumer Price Index | 3/31/15 | … | M | M | M | O, O, O, O | O, O, LO, O, O |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance, and Composition of Financing3—General Government4 | 04/30/14 | 05/07/14 | M | M | M | O, LO, LO, LO | O, O, O, O, LNO |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance, and Composition of Financing3—Central Government | 04/30/14 | 05/07/14 | M | M | M | ||
| Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt5 | 04/30/15 | 05/15/15 | M | M | M | ||
| External Current Account Balance | Ql/2014 | 04/30/14 | Q | Q | Q | LO, O, O, O | O, O, O, O, O |
| Exports and Imports of Goods and Services | Ql/2014 | 04/30/14 | Q | Q | Q | ||
| GDP/GNP | Q3/2014 | 01/20/2015 | Q | Q | Q | O, O, O, LO | LO, O, LO, O, O |
| Gross External Debt | Ql/2014 | 04/30/14 | Q | Q | Q | ||
| International Investment Position6 | Ql/2014 | 04/30/14 | Q | Q | Q | ||
Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discounts rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes, and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.
Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).
Reflects the assessment provided in the update of the data ROSC published in February 2008, based on the findings of the mission that took place during November 29-December 13, 2006 for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO); largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).
Same as footnote 8, except referring to international standards concerning (respectively) source data, assessment of source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs, and revision studies.
Kazakhstan: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of July 7, 2015)
| Memo Items | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date of latest observation | Date received | Frequency of Data7 | Frequency of Reporting7 | Frequency of publication7 | Data Quality-Methodological Soundness8 | Data Quality-Accuracy and Reliability9 | |
| Exchange Rates | 05/27/14 | 05/27/14 | D | D | M | ||
| International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities1 | 05/31/15 | 06/30/15 | M | M | M | ||
| Reserve/Base Money | 05/31/15 | 06/30/15 | M | M | M | O, O, LO, LO | O, O, O, O, O |
| Broad Money | 05/31/15 | 06/30/15 | M | M | M | ||
| Central Bank Balance Sheet | 05/31/15 | 06/30/15 | M | M | M | ||
| Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System | 05/31/15 | 06/30/15 | M | M | M | ||
| Interest Rates2 | 05/31/15 | 06/30/15 | M | M | M | ||
| Consumer Price Index | 3/31/15 | … | M | M | M | O, O, O, O | O, O, LO, O, O |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance, and Composition of Financing3—General Government4 | 04/30/14 | 05/07/14 | M | M | M | O, LO, LO, LO | O, O, O, O, LNO |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance, and Composition of Financing3—Central Government | 04/30/14 | 05/07/14 | M | M | M | ||
| Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt5 | 04/30/15 | 05/15/15 | M | M | M | ||
| External Current Account Balance | Ql/2014 | 04/30/14 | Q | Q | Q | LO, O, O, O | O, O, O, O, O |
| Exports and Imports of Goods and Services | Ql/2014 | 04/30/14 | Q | Q | Q | ||
| GDP/GNP | Q3/2014 | 01/20/2015 | Q | Q | Q | O, O, O, LO | LO, O, LO, O, O |
| Gross External Debt | Ql/2014 | 04/30/14 | Q | Q | Q | ||
| International Investment Position6 | Ql/2014 | 04/30/14 | Q | Q | Q | ||
Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discounts rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes, and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.
Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).
Reflects the assessment provided in the update of the data ROSC published in February 2008, based on the findings of the mission that took place during November 29-December 13, 2006 for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO); largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).
Same as footnote 8, except referring to international standards concerning (respectively) source data, assessment of source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs, and revision studies.
