International Monetary Fund, 2007, World Economic Outlook: Exchange Rates and the Adjustment of External Imbalances (Washington: International Monetary Fund, April).
Prepared by Emine Boz (RES).
This definition follows Chapter 3 of the 2007 World Economic Outlook.
The end to this episode at the time of the re-unification was most likely driven by a change in the coverage of WEO’s balance of payments data that referred only west Germany until June 1990 and started to include the eastern Lander thereafter.
Excluding the financial centers from the analysis does not change the results shown in the figure significantly.
The statistics reported in Figure 1 for Germany refer only to the 2004-2014 episode and do not include the 1985-91 episode. The later is also excluded from statistics referring to “outside of episodes” periods.
Note that ULC based REER data are limited and available for only 11 of the 21 surplus episodes this note identifies. For Germany it covers 1993-2014.