The economy has recovered from the 2012–13 slowdown, supported by sound policies and improving external conditions. The outlook is for robust growth and subdued inflation but risks, although moderating, are tilted to the downside. Further structural reforms and stronger policy buffers will mitigate risks and ensure that the recovery is durable and balanced. Interconnectedness. Poland’s strong interconnectedness with Europe through both trade and financial linkages has facilitated growth and income convergence and reduced inequality. However, it also exposes Poland to external shocks that can propagate through substantial foreign participation in the government bond market and in the banking system. Monetary policy. The recent policy interest rate cuts should help gradually return inflation to the target. However, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) should stand ready to further ease monetary policy if inflation expectations were to disappoint. Financial sector policy. The financial sector remains profitable, well-capitalized, and liquid. Credit growth is picking up in tandem with activity. Addressing legacy vulnerabilities and completing financial sector reforms would further buttress financial stability and support continued healthy credit expansion. Fiscal policy. Gradual fiscal consolidation should continue to build policy buffers and address long-term aging-related contingent liabilities. The authorities should identify measures to underpin their fiscal plans. Structural reforms. Over the past two decades, Poland succeeded in closing a quarter of its per capita income gap with the European Union (EU) average. Further boosting income levels and living standards requires structural reforms to move up the value- added chain and facilitate labor mobility to higher productivity sectors.

Abstract

The economy has recovered from the 2012–13 slowdown, supported by sound policies and improving external conditions. The outlook is for robust growth and subdued inflation but risks, although moderating, are tilted to the downside. Further structural reforms and stronger policy buffers will mitigate risks and ensure that the recovery is durable and balanced. Interconnectedness. Poland’s strong interconnectedness with Europe through both trade and financial linkages has facilitated growth and income convergence and reduced inequality. However, it also exposes Poland to external shocks that can propagate through substantial foreign participation in the government bond market and in the banking system. Monetary policy. The recent policy interest rate cuts should help gradually return inflation to the target. However, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) should stand ready to further ease monetary policy if inflation expectations were to disappoint. Financial sector policy. The financial sector remains profitable, well-capitalized, and liquid. Credit growth is picking up in tandem with activity. Addressing legacy vulnerabilities and completing financial sector reforms would further buttress financial stability and support continued healthy credit expansion. Fiscal policy. Gradual fiscal consolidation should continue to build policy buffers and address long-term aging-related contingent liabilities. The authorities should identify measures to underpin their fiscal plans. Structural reforms. Over the past two decades, Poland succeeded in closing a quarter of its per capita income gap with the European Union (EU) average. Further boosting income levels and living standards requires structural reforms to move up the value- added chain and facilitate labor mobility to higher productivity sectors.

Fund Relations

(As of May 31, 2015)

Membership Status: Joined 6/12/1986; Article VIII

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None

Latest Financial Arrangements:

In Millions of SDR

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Projected Payments to Fund (SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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Exchange Arrangements:

The zloty is freely floating.

Poland accepted the obligation of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4 on June 1, 1995. Poland maintains an exchange system free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, except for the exchange restrictions imposed by Poland solely for the preservation of national or international security as introduced by the European Union (EU) within the framework of the Common Foreign and Security Policy. The consolidated list of such sanctions is available at: http://eeas.europa.eu/cfsp/sanctions/consol-list/index_en.htm.

Article IV Consultation:

The last Article IV consultation was concluded on June 23, 2014. In concluding the consultation, Directors emphasized that Poland’s very strong fundamentals and economic policies had helped it weather turmoil in financial markets and paved the way for the economic recovery. They noted that the Precautionary Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement has provided important insurance against external risks. At the same time, they observed that external risks remained elevated. Directors advised a measured pace for fiscal consolidation over the medium term to reduce the fiscal deficit and preserve growth. They agreed that the medium-term objective of a structural deficit of 1 percent of GDP remains appropriate and could be achieved through better expenditure prioritization, following a review of public expenditures, and improved tax compliance and efficiency of tax administration. Directors urged the authorities to address legacy flaws in the pension system and consider measures to deal with the sharp drop in future replacement rates. They also advised continued monitoring of liquidity in the government bond and equity markets, given the reduced presence of pension funds. On monetary policy, Directors concurred that the monetary stance was broadly appropriate within the context of limited inflationary pressures and subdued euro area inflation. However, a number of Directors called for heightened vigilance, as policy interest rates could be further reduced if the recovery falters or if revised projections indicate below-target inflation for a protracted period. In light of external risks, Directors concurred that moderate reserve accumulation would be prudent. Directors commended the resilience of the banking system, which remains well capitalized, profitable, and liquid. However, they called for enhanced financial sector supervision by expediting the completion of the macroprudential and bank resolution frameworks—including legislation to create a Systemic Risk Board. Directors encouraged the authorities to deepen structural reforms to achieve more inclusive sustainable growth.

Resident Representative:

Mr. James Roaf replaced Mr. Mark Allen as the Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe, effective August 8, 2013.

Republic of Poland: Technical Assistance from the Fund, 1992–2014

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Statistical Issues

Poland—Statistical Issues Appendix

(As of May 2015)

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Republic of Poland: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance–as of May 29, 2015

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Any reserve assets that are pledged of otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); Not Available (NA).

Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC published on November 6, 2001, and based on the findings of the respective missions that took place during May 10–18, 2001 for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. For fiscal data, also takes account of the 2009 Fiscal Transparency ROSC. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O), largely observed (LO), largely not observed (LNO), or not observed (NO).

Same as footnote 7, except referring to international standards concerning (respectively) source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation, and revision studies.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.