Oman: Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module Volume I

OVERALL ASSESSMENT 1. Oman began to participate in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) in 2002 and started posting its metadata on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) in June of the same year. Oman meets the GDDS good practices for data coverage, periodicity, and timeliness with a few exceptions including the timeliness of the first annual estimate of GDP in volume terms, which is available eleven months after the reference period. Graduation to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) would require stronger and sustained effort to enhance data collection and to strengthen the legal framework for the production of macroeconomic statistics, as set out in the recommendations ahead. Appendix I provides an overview of Oman's dissemination practices compared to the GDDS. 2. This report provides an update of the assessment conducted in February 2004, which was based on the 2003 version of the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). This report uses the May 2012 version of the DQAF, and provides an assessment of Oman’s national accounts (NA), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance statistics (GFS), monetary statistics, and external sector statistics (ESS). The three agencies that produce these statistics are the National Center for Statistics and Information (NCSI), the Central Bank of Oman (CBO), and the Ministry of Finance (MOF). The NCSI and the CBO disseminate data as distinct statistical outputs. The MOF produces GFS for dissemination by the NCSI as an input to macroeconomic statistics, but not as a distinct statistical output. 3. Oman has made significant progress in the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics since the 2004 ROSC mission. The main progress has been achieved in monetary statistics, price indices, and balance of payments, in particular the introduction of the PPI, and improvements in data relevance, transparency, classification, and sectorization. Also of great significance are the establishment of the NCSI as an autonomous statistical institution on May 26, 2012, (Royal Decree No. 31/2012) and an elaboration of its duties in August 2014. Among the NCSI’s main duties is the “technical supervision of the management and organization of statistics and information activities in Oman” (Royal Decree No. 40/2014). Table 1 provides an indication of areas of progress.

Abstract

OVERALL ASSESSMENT 1. Oman began to participate in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) in 2002 and started posting its metadata on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) in June of the same year. Oman meets the GDDS good practices for data coverage, periodicity, and timeliness with a few exceptions including the timeliness of the first annual estimate of GDP in volume terms, which is available eleven months after the reference period. Graduation to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) would require stronger and sustained effort to enhance data collection and to strengthen the legal framework for the production of macroeconomic statistics, as set out in the recommendations ahead. Appendix I provides an overview of Oman's dissemination practices compared to the GDDS. 2. This report provides an update of the assessment conducted in February 2004, which was based on the 2003 version of the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). This report uses the May 2012 version of the DQAF, and provides an assessment of Oman’s national accounts (NA), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance statistics (GFS), monetary statistics, and external sector statistics (ESS). The three agencies that produce these statistics are the National Center for Statistics and Information (NCSI), the Central Bank of Oman (CBO), and the Ministry of Finance (MOF). The NCSI and the CBO disseminate data as distinct statistical outputs. The MOF produces GFS for dissemination by the NCSI as an input to macroeconomic statistics, but not as a distinct statistical output. 3. Oman has made significant progress in the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics since the 2004 ROSC mission. The main progress has been achieved in monetary statistics, price indices, and balance of payments, in particular the introduction of the PPI, and improvements in data relevance, transparency, classification, and sectorization. Also of great significance are the establishment of the NCSI as an autonomous statistical institution on May 26, 2012, (Royal Decree No. 31/2012) and an elaboration of its duties in August 2014. Among the NCSI’s main duties is the “technical supervision of the management and organization of statistics and information activities in Oman” (Royal Decree No. 40/2014). Table 1 provides an indication of areas of progress.

Overall Assessment

1. Oman began to participate in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) in 2002 and started posting its metadata on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) in June of the same year. Oman meets the GDDS good practices for data coverage, periodicity, and timeliness with a few exceptions including the timeliness of the first annual estimate of GDP in volume terms, which is available eleven months after the reference period. Graduation to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) would require stronger and sustained effort to enhance data collection and to strengthen the legal framework for the production of macroeconomic statistics, as set out in the recommendations ahead. Appendix I provides an overview of Oman’s dissemination practices compared to the GDDS.

2. This report provides an update of the assessment conducted in February 2004, which was based on the 2003 version of the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). This report uses the May 2012 version of the DQAF, and provides an assessment of Oman’s national accounts (NA), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance statistics (GFS), monetary statistics, and external sector statistics (ESS). The three agencies that produce these statistics are the National Center for Statistics and Information (NCSI), the Central Bank of Oman (CBO), and the Ministry of Finance (MOF). The NCSI and the CBO disseminate data as distinct statistical outputs. The MOF produces GFS for dissemination by the NCSI as an input to macroeconomic statistics, but not as a distinct statistical output.

3. Oman has made significant progress in the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics since the 2004 ROSC mission. The main progress has been achieved in monetary statistics, price indices, and balance of payments, in particular the introduction of the PPI, and improvements in data relevance, transparency, classification, and sectorization. Also of great significance are the establishment of the NCSI as an autonomous statistical institution on May 26, 2012, (Royal Decree No. 31/2012) and an elaboration of its duties in August 2014. Among the NCSI’s main duties is the “technical supervision of the management and organization of statistics and information activities in Oman” (Royal Decree No. 40/2014). Table 1 provides an indication of areas of progress.

Table 1.

Oman: Data Quality Assessment Framework 2012—Summary Results

Key to symbols: O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO =Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; NA = Not Applicable; = Improvement on 2004 ROSC Rating; and =Deterioration on 2004 ROSC Rating.

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Practice observed: Current practices generally meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies. Practice largely observed: Some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities’ ability to observe the DQAF practices. Practice largely not observed: Significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance. Practice not observed: Most DQAF practices are not met. Not applicable: Used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to the country’s circumstances.

4. Recognizing the need for Oman to move to higher data standards, this report also identifies shortcomings in statistical practices and products that remain to be addressed. These include the need to strengthen the legal and institutional framework to support the effective compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics; the need to improve the scope of GFS and ESS, the consistency of PPI, the accessibility of GFS metadata, and to conduct revision studies.

5. Section II provides a summary assessment by agency and data set, based on a four-point rating scale. This is followed by staff’s recommendations in Section III. Appendix I provides a summary of practices compared to the GDDS. The authorities’ response to this report and a volume of detailed assessments are presented in separate documents. The remainder of this section presents the mission’s main conclusions. The presentation follows the level of the DQAF’s quality dimensions, by agency for the first two dimensions, and across datasets for the remaining four.

6. Legal Environment: The three data producing agencies in Oman (CBO, MOF, and NCSI) rely on several laws that have supported the compilation and dissemination of official statistics over the years. The compilation of data within the CBO is guided by the Banking Law and within the MOF by the Financial Law. The NCSI relies on the Statistical Law, which vested statistical responsibilities in the former Ministry of National Economy that was dissolved in 2011. With the establishment of the NCSI as an autonomous entity responsible for, inter alia, supervising the management and organization of statistics and information activities, there is an urgent need to update the existing Statistical Law to provide the NCSI with an adequate legal mandate to execute its duties and responsibilities. There is a case to consider strengthening the legal mandate with a view to formally assign the CBO with the responsibility to compile and disseminate monetary and external sector statistics. Similarly, there is a need to amend the Financial Law to provide the MOF with the flexibility to disseminate GFS in an additional and separate format than the State’s Final Account as a statistical output with the required timeliness and periodicity. The current Financial Law inhibits this process as it allows MOF to disseminate annual budgetary expenditure and revenue only six months after the reference year.

7. Institutional Environment: The existing data-sharing arrangements between government institutions, including CBO, are well-coordinated, but consistency checks of shared data could be formalized and secured via legal mechanisms. The envisaged amendment of the current Statistical Law provides a good opportunity to address some key statistical constraints, namely the coordination of data collection, the classification, and the validation to ensure methodological consistency across datasets. Resources in the three data producing agencies are broadly commensurate with existing statistical programs. However, with the growing needs for high frequency data, as well as the need to implement new international standards, the number of staff working in some statistical areas may need to be augmented. Monitoring the relevance of statistics through user feedback is broadly appropriate, but could be strengthened especially for national accounts. The recently established processes (by CBO and NCSI) to focus on quality management, including measures to monitor and review the quality of ongoing activities are to be commended. Staff are well motivated and provided with opportunities to expand their knowledge and skills.

8. Assurances of Integrity: All three data producing agencies demonstrate professionalism, are transparent in their practices, and provide guidelines on ethical conduct to their staff. The choice of source data, methodologies, and statistical techniques is based on measurement objectives and data requirements. Transparency is fostered by public availability of the Banking Law, the Financial Law, and the Statistical Law. The extent of internal government access to statistics prior to their public release is disclosed in the GDDS metadata. Clear and comprehensive ethical standards are set out in the CBO’s Code of Ethics and Staff Regulations, and the Civil Service Law, which stipulates, among other issues, the conduct expected of all civil servants and responsibilities applicable to MOF and NCSI staff. Areas for further improvement include announcing upcoming statistical releases to ensure equal access for users, and disclosing the principles under which selected users receive prior access to official statistics. These issues can be addressed via publication and maintenance of relevant material on the NCSI website.

9. Methodological Soundness: The implementation of the 2004 ROSC mission recommendations has led to improvements in methodology applied to statistics. National accounts, price indices, monetary statistics, and balance of payments, broadly follow internationally accepted guidelines in terms of concepts and definitions, classifications and sectorization, and basis for recording. The GFS are yet to be prepared with the full scope of general government. Work is ongoing within the MOF to transition the Chart of Accounts to the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM2001) around 2017, and in the NCSI to align with the minimum data requirements determined by the Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA). Furthermore, the scope of monetary statistics could be improved by including Islamic banks that meet the definition of other depository corporations; and balance of payments by expanding coverage to include financial transactions of the nonfinancial private sector.

10. Accuracy and Reliability: Source data and processes for validating data, collected for the macroeconomic datasets, are broadly adequate. The techniques for benchmarking in national accounts need to be improved to produce a reliable time series. While the compilation of ESS employs sound statistical techniques, source data need to be augmented to cover the full scope of all transactions via the banking system, financial transactions of the nonfinancial private sector, and stocks data. So too, is the need to augment some of the benchmarks and measures taken to update and adjust the source data for balance of payments, and the need to conduct formal revision studies to test reliability of statistics. For the PPI, the source data for weights and samples are outdated, and the replacement of disappearing items and establishments should be made a routine practice.

11. Serviceability: The periodicity and timeliness of CPI, GFS, monetary statistics, and balance of payments meet the GDDS requirements. However, national accounts and PPI are yet to meet the GDDS requirements for periodicity and timeliness—the first annual estimate of GDP in volume terms is published approximately eleven months after the reference period and PPI is produced quarterly. Priority areas for further improvement include, the dissemination of quarterly balance of payments statistics, international investment position (IIP) data; and national accounts based on GDDS requirements for periodicity and timeliness. The need for this improvement was echoed by respondents in a survey of key users (User Survey), conducted prior to this ROSC mission. Users indicated significant lags in the publication of data that constrain monitoring and analytical work on current economic trends.

12. Accessibility: Accessibility of the official statistics has improved considerably since the 2004 ROSC. All the six data sets covered in this report are readily available to the public and are accompanied by suitable documentation. Serviceability to users is broadly adequate and includes clear identification of contact details in all publications and websites. Areas for further improvement include publication and maintenance of key documentation in several areas such as concordances, sources and methods; and general dissemination policy on various websites to enhance accessibility. So too, is the need to create a centralized data portal accessible to users, publish data at a more granular level with a longer time series, and to keep metadata on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) up-to-date. The current strategy employed by the CBO and the NCSI towards electronic online databases is a step in the right direction.

Assessment by Agency and Dataset

13. Assessment of the quality of six macroeconomic datasets was conducted using the DQAF 2012. In this section, the results are presented at the level of the DQAF elements using a four-point rating scale (Table 1). Table 1 also shows areas of improvements compared to the 2004 ROSC ratings. Assessments of the prerequisites of data quality and the assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1” of the DQAF) are presented in Tables 2ac. For each dataset, the assessment of methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility (Dimensions “2” to “5” of the DQAF) are shown in Tables 3af.

Table 2a.

Oman: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Central Bank of Oman

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Table 2b.

Oman: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Ministry of Finance

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Table 2c.

Oman: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—National Center for Statistics and Information (NCSI)

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Table 3a.

Oman: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 and 5—National Accounts

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Table 3b.

Oman: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 and 5—Consumer Price Index

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Table 3c.

Oman: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 and 5—Producer Price Index

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Table 3d.

Oman: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 and 5—Government Finance Statistics

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Table 3e.

Oman: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 and 5—Monetary Statistics

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Table 3f.

Oman: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 and 5—External Sector Statistics

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14. In order to complement the Fund’s assessment of the quality of official statistics, and with the assistance of the CBO and the NCSI, the mission conducted a survey of key users of macro-economic statistics that are published by the CBO and the NCSI. The questionnaire was sent to a broad range of users in Oman who were asked to evaluate the coverage, periodicity, timeliness, accessibility, and overall quality assessment of the official statistics.

15. Users are generally satisfied with the overall quality of the official statistics. On a scale of 1 to 5, 1 being “poor” and 5 being “excellent”, the average for all official statistics was 3.7, slightly improved from 3.6 in 2004. Overall, users are highly satisfied with monetary statistics and price statistics, but less so on national accounts, balance of payments, and GFS. While users are satisfied with coverage, they would like to see more details on national accounts, GFS, and balance of payments. On periodicity and timeliness, while users expressed a high level of satisfaction with the timeliness of prices, monetary statistics, and GFS, they were less satisfied with national accounts and balance of payments. They stated that the significant lags in the publication of data prevent them from conducting analyses of current economic trends.

16. The vast majority of respondents (96 percent) access statistics via the official websites for all sectors, with highest rating given to the CPI and monetary statistics. However, users expressed less satisfaction with the accessibility to the metadata across all sectors. On specific comments, some users would appreciate the creation of an interactive online database where they could select time series and frequency given their heavy reliance on the official websites for statistical data. A more detailed analysis of the User Survey and tabulated results are provided in Volume III of this report.

Staffs Recommendations

17. Based on the review of Oman’s statistical practices, discussions with the data producing agencies, and responses from data users (see Appendix IV of the Detailed Assessments volume), the mission developed a set of recommendations. They are designed to increase Oman’s adherence to internationally accepted statistical practices and their implementation would, in the mission’s view, enhance the analytical usefulness of Oman’s statistics and progression to the Special Data Dissemination Standards. Some additional technical suggestions are included in the Detailed Assessments in Volume III.

Cross-cutting recommendations

  • Develop, publish, and implement a new Statistical Law to clarify responsibilities and to strengthen inter-agency coordination within the Oman’s statistical system.

  • Update the Financial Law to allow timely release of monthly, quarterly and annual preliminary GFS data, and to improve the scope of the data.

  • Institute legal mandate for the CBO to compile and disseminate monetary and external sector statistics.

  • Establish formalized arrangements among government institutions, including the CBO, to ensure efficient data exchange and methodological consistency.

  • Enhance data accessibility and timeliness of publications for all datasets by improving statistical databases in all institutions and introducing user-friendly time-series formats for data dissemination. This should include publication of a calendar showing all upcoming releases.

  • The CBO in cooperation with the NCSI should expand data collections to address existing gaps and consider the introduction of the International Transactions Reporting System.

  • Establish a formal user advisory group for macroeconomic statistics to provide feedback on the relevance of current data and identify new and emerging data requirements on a regular basis.

National accounts

  • Replace the current benchmarking technique with a standard technique such as the Proportional Denton Method to enable preparation of consistent quarterly time series.

  • Publish documentation outlining the regular and transparent schedule for which national accounts are revised.

  • Ensure volume movements for taxes less subsidies on products reflect volume movements of the underlying products.

  • Construct and publish a policy documenting the users receiving statistics prior to release, the principles under which this disclosure occurs, and the process by which access can be requested.

Consumer price index

  • Continue to explore ways of fine-tuning the rebasing of CPI; notably, set the annual average of 2012 to 100, while allowing monthly changes.

  • Disseminate detailed monthly time series on the NCSI website in a user-friendly format.

  • Provide explanations on current period developments of the index in the monthly publication.

Producer price index

  • Update the production system to facilitate replacement of items and establishments consistent with the PPI manual to facilitate monthly publication of PPI.

  • Establish procedures for regular updates of the weights and the item/establishment samples consistent with availability of contemporary source data.

  • Provide detailed time series on the NCSI website, readily available and in a convenient format.

Government finance statistics

  • Fine-tune classification of government units and economic phenomena consistent with GFSM 2014 methodology.

  • Expand MOF staff positions to include dedicated GFS compilers.

  • Improve GFS metadata dissemination.

Monetary statistics

  • Include the Islamic banks in the coverage of other depository corporations (ODCs).

  • Improve the presentation of table “Commercial Bank’s Combined Balance Sheet” in the CBO’s statistical bulletins by expanding the sectoral breakdown for loans, debt securities, and deposits.

  • Explore the feasibility to collect data from the major other financial corporations, such as pension funds and insurance corporations to compile other financial corporations survey (OFCS) and financial corporations survey (FCS) in the future.

Balance of payments statistics

  • Elaborate the plan and timetable to migrate ESS to BPM6 methodology, identifying actions and key target dates.

  • Increase the number of staff dedicated to the compilation of ESS to ensure the smooth migration to BPM6 and development of IIP.

  • Disseminate international investment position statistics and external debt.

  • Improve the adjustments in the estimation of data on foreign trade, including the process to estimate trade via free economic zones, and on international trade in services, based on expanded collection and improved techniques.

Appendix I.

Oman: Practices Compared to the GDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data

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Note: Periodicity and timeliness: (D) daily; (W) weekly or with a lag of no more than one week from the reference data or the closing of the reference week; (M) monthly or with a lag of no more than one month; (Q) quarterly or with a lag of no more than one quarter; (A) annually; and (…) not applicable.Italics indicate encouraged categories.

A preliminary quarterly estimate of nominal GDP(P) is available four months after the reference period. An annual estimate of nominal GDP is therefore available four months after the reference period. The first estimate of real GDP (the preliminary benchmark) is derived from a balanced, annual SUT and published 11 months after the reference period. No quarterly estimate of real GDP is produced.

Annual data only cover budgetary central government data. Monthly data on the revenue and expenditure of budgetary central government, following a national presentation, are disseminated in the Monthly Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Oman. December data are only available 6 months after the end of the fiscal year.

1 Unemployment data is published whenever a census is conducted.

Disseminated as part of a high-frequency (e.g. monthly) publication.

Partial coverage. Goods not recorded by Customs are excluded.

Oman: Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module Volume I
Author: International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.