Abstract
Thailand’s economy is undergoing a modest recovery after a sharp contraction in early 2014, when domestic demand was adversely affected by political unrest.
Fund Relations
(As of January 21, 2015)
Membership Status: Joined 05/03/1949; Article VIII.
Article VIII Status: Thailand has accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4, and maintains an exchange system free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions.
General Resources Account:
| SDR Million | Percent Quota | |
|---|---|---|
| Quota | 1,440.50 | 100.00 |
| Fund holdings of currency | 945.03 | 65.60 |
| Reserve position in Fund | 495.48 | 34.40 |
| Lending to the Fund | ||
| New Arrangements to | ||
| borrow | 39.13 |
| SDR Million | Percent Quota | |
|---|---|---|
| Quota | 1,440.50 | 100.00 |
| Fund holdings of currency | 945.03 | 65.60 |
| Reserve position in Fund | 495.48 | 34.40 |
| Lending to the Fund | ||
| New Arrangements to | ||
| borrow | 39.13 |
SDR Department
| SDR Million | Percent Allocation | |
|---|---|---|
| Net cumulative allocation | 970.27 | 100.00 |
| Holdings | 974.59 | 100.45 |
| SDR Million | Percent Allocation | |
|---|---|---|
| Net cumulative allocation | 970.27 | 100.00 |
| Holdings | 974.59 | 100.45 |
Outstanding Purchases and Loans:
None
Latest Financial Arrangements: In millions of SDR
| Type | Approval Date | Expiration Date | Amount Approved | Amount Drawn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stand-by | 8/20/97 | 6/19/2000 | 2,900.00 | 2,500.00 |
| Stand-By | 6/14/85 | 12/31/86 | 400.00 | 260.00 |
| Type | Approval Date | Expiration Date | Amount Approved | Amount Drawn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stand-by | 8/20/97 | 6/19/2000 | 2,900.00 | 2,500.00 |
| Stand-By | 6/14/85 | 12/31/86 | 400.00 | 260.00 |
Projected Obligations to Fund
(SDR million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Principal | |||||
| Charges/interest | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Total | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Principal | |||||
| Charges/interest | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Total | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
Exchange Rate Arrangement:
After more than a decade when the baht was effectively pegged closely to the U.S. dollar through a basket of currencies, the exchange rate regime was changed on July 2, 1997. Both the de jure and de facto exchange rate arrangements are classified as floating.
Last Article IV Consultation:
At the conclusion of the 2013 Article IV consultations, Executive Directors noted that skillful macroeconomic management, as well as the strong fundamentals of the Thai economy have blunted the impact of recent severe shocks and were underpinning a recovery. Looking ahead, they encouraged the authorities to persevere in their efforts to rebuild fiscal buffers, strengthen financial stability, and promote more inclusive growth. Directors considered that a gradual return to fiscal consolidation will broaden the room for policy maneuver over the medium term and create space for priority spending. They noted, however, that the achievement of the authorities’ targets may require additional measures and would benefit from a stronger medium-term fiscal framework. Therefore, they supported expanding investment in infrastructure and education, and replacing generalized subsidies with targeted income support for vulnerable groups. They encouraged the authorities to stand ready to normalize the policy stance if inflationary pressures re-emerge. Directors also observed that capital flow volatility has presented challenges to macroeconomic management. They agreed that Thailand’s strong international reserve position, together with exchange rate flexibility and macroprudential and capital flow measures as appropriate, will help address such volatility going forward. Directors welcomed the progress in developing the non-bank financial sector, which should boost financial inclusion and facilitate investment. They also agreed that policy actions to strengthen the regulatory and supervisory frameworks for non-bank and specialized financial institutions are essential to safeguard the soundness of the financial system. They welcomed the authorities’ aim to promote more inclusive growth and endorsed plans to boost workers’ skills to address skills mismatches and labor shortages. They also supported plans to expand infrastructure to lower transportation costs, promote commerce, and boost long-term growth.
Recent Technical Assistance:
FAD: A TA mission on Public Financial Management took place in October 2014, followed by another mission in March 2015 with a focus on medium-term fiscal framework. A mission on tax administration took place in February 2014 and January 2015. A mission on revenue administration -gap analysis program took place in November 2014 to conduct tax gap estimation for VAT.
MCM: A mission on the regulation of public banks (Specialized Financial Institutions) took place in January 2015.
STA: A TA mission on government finance statistics and a TA mission on property price indexes took place in October 2014.
Resident Representative: None
Bank-Fund Collaboration
Thailand: JMAP Implementation Table
Thailand: JMAP Implementation Table
| Title | Products | Provisional Timing of Missions | Delivery Date (tentative) |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mutual information on relevant work programs | |||
| Bank work program | Thailand Economic Monitor (June and November 2013) | Bi-annual | Published online February 2014; Economic Update October 2014; by |
| June 2015 | |||
| Thailand Development Report (Country Economic Memorandum) | On-going | June 2015 | |
| Improving Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations System for better service delivery | Ongoing | June 2015 | |
| Public Finance Management Report | Completed | March 2012 | |
| Revenue Policy Review | Completed | July 2012 | |
| Financial Projection Model support for Specialized Financial Institutions | Ongoing | December 2013 | |
| Strengthening Insurance Supervision | Ongoing | June 2014 | |
| Strengthening corporate governance of State Owned Enterprises and State Financial Institutions | On-going | TA - Just in time | |
| IMF work program | 2015 Article IV mission | January 2015 | Board discussion expected in April 2015 |
| 2015 Staff Visit | June 2015 | ||
| B. Request for work program inputs | |||
| Fund request to Bank | Assessment of economic developments and structural policies | Semi-annual or more frequent | Ongoing |
| Information sharing | Semi-annual or more frequent | Ongoing | |
| Bank request to Fund | Assessment of macroeconomic developments and policies | Semi-annual or more frequent | Ongoing |
| Information sharing | Semi-annual or more frequent | Ongoing | |
| Share information on Technical Assistance work on Medium Term Fiscal Framework, State Financial Institutions | Semi-annual | Ongoing | |
Thailand: JMAP Implementation Table
| Title | Products | Provisional Timing of Missions | Delivery Date (tentative) |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mutual information on relevant work programs | |||
| Bank work program | Thailand Economic Monitor (June and November 2013) | Bi-annual | Published online February 2014; Economic Update October 2014; by |
| June 2015 | |||
| Thailand Development Report (Country Economic Memorandum) | On-going | June 2015 | |
| Improving Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations System for better service delivery | Ongoing | June 2015 | |
| Public Finance Management Report | Completed | March 2012 | |
| Revenue Policy Review | Completed | July 2012 | |
| Financial Projection Model support for Specialized Financial Institutions | Ongoing | December 2013 | |
| Strengthening Insurance Supervision | Ongoing | June 2014 | |
| Strengthening corporate governance of State Owned Enterprises and State Financial Institutions | On-going | TA - Just in time | |
| IMF work program | 2015 Article IV mission | January 2015 | Board discussion expected in April 2015 |
| 2015 Staff Visit | June 2015 | ||
| B. Request for work program inputs | |||
| Fund request to Bank | Assessment of economic developments and structural policies | Semi-annual or more frequent | Ongoing |
| Information sharing | Semi-annual or more frequent | Ongoing | |
| Bank request to Fund | Assessment of macroeconomic developments and policies | Semi-annual or more frequent | Ongoing |
| Information sharing | Semi-annual or more frequent | Ongoing | |
| Share information on Technical Assistance work on Medium Term Fiscal Framework, State Financial Institutions | Semi-annual | Ongoing | |
Statistical Issues
(As of February 2015)
| I. Assessment of Data Adequacy for Surveillance | |
| General: Data provision is broadly adequate for surveillance. The authorities have continued to improve the quality and coverage of data. The dissemination of additional data may enhance the basis for macroeconomic analysis. | |
| National accounts: The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) compiles annual and quarterly GDP estimates using both the production and expenditure approaches. The annual GDP volume measures are derived at previous year’s prices and as chain-linked indices with 2002 as the reference year. Quarterly national accounts estimates are compiled using a fixed base year (1998). The NESDB plans to introduce new quarterly GDP current price and chain-linked volume estimates in 2015. Price statistics: The Bureau of Trade and Economic Indexes (BTEI) compiles and disseminates a monthly consumer price index with weights based on expenditure data collected from households during the 2011 Socio-Economic Survey. Index coverage is restricted to middle-income urban households. In addition to headline CPI, the BTEI publishes aggregate indexes for the low-income and rural populations. |
|
| Government finance statistics: The authorities provide data to the Fund consistent with the Government Finance Statistics Manual, 2001 (GFSM 2001). Data are contributed to both the Government Finance Statistics Yearbook and the International Finance Statistics. General government fiscal data are provided to the IMF annually—more timely publication would be desirable. Nonetheless, the authorities publish monthly data for key GFS-based numbers for the central government budget on their website, while estimates of quarterly general government GFS are published with some lag. In addition, the authorities have started to compile GFSM 2001-based data for the non-financial state enterprises (SOEs), although there are delays for selected SOEs. The authorities also publish public sector debt data in their website, including debt of non-financial SOEs and government-guaranteed debt of Specialized Financial Institutions. | |
| Monetary statistics: The authorities submit the Standardized Reporting Forms (SRFs) for monetary statistics on a timely basis. In January 2015, 10 FSIs for Thailand were published on the IMF’s FSI portal. | |
| Balance of payments: The authorities started publishing balance of payments statistics under BPM6 in September 2011. The historical data goes back to 2005—a longer historical series would be useful. The methodology for compiling balance of payments data remains adequate. Additional source data to complement the ITRS have been developed recently and coverage has been expanded to include estimates of reinvested earnings and worker remittances outflows. Further improvements are expected to enhance the data coverage and accuracy of BOP and IIP statistics, in particular in areas where new concepts have been introduced by BPM6 such as in goods and services. Quarterly IIP data are disseminated since late 2014 (starting with the first quarter of 2012), in line with SDDS’ recommendation. The data are collected quarterly and publicly available with a lag time of one quarter. The last observation available for quarterly IIP is Q3-2014 (at time of assessment). Data on external debt and debt service have significantly improved since the introduction of a quarterly survey of private nonbank external debt. | |
| II. Data Standards and Quality | |
| Subscriber to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) since 1996. | Data ROSC published in April 2006. |
| I. Assessment of Data Adequacy for Surveillance | |
| General: Data provision is broadly adequate for surveillance. The authorities have continued to improve the quality and coverage of data. The dissemination of additional data may enhance the basis for macroeconomic analysis. | |
| National accounts: The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) compiles annual and quarterly GDP estimates using both the production and expenditure approaches. The annual GDP volume measures are derived at previous year’s prices and as chain-linked indices with 2002 as the reference year. Quarterly national accounts estimates are compiled using a fixed base year (1998). The NESDB plans to introduce new quarterly GDP current price and chain-linked volume estimates in 2015. Price statistics: The Bureau of Trade and Economic Indexes (BTEI) compiles and disseminates a monthly consumer price index with weights based on expenditure data collected from households during the 2011 Socio-Economic Survey. Index coverage is restricted to middle-income urban households. In addition to headline CPI, the BTEI publishes aggregate indexes for the low-income and rural populations. |
|
| Government finance statistics: The authorities provide data to the Fund consistent with the Government Finance Statistics Manual, 2001 (GFSM 2001). Data are contributed to both the Government Finance Statistics Yearbook and the International Finance Statistics. General government fiscal data are provided to the IMF annually—more timely publication would be desirable. Nonetheless, the authorities publish monthly data for key GFS-based numbers for the central government budget on their website, while estimates of quarterly general government GFS are published with some lag. In addition, the authorities have started to compile GFSM 2001-based data for the non-financial state enterprises (SOEs), although there are delays for selected SOEs. The authorities also publish public sector debt data in their website, including debt of non-financial SOEs and government-guaranteed debt of Specialized Financial Institutions. | |
| Monetary statistics: The authorities submit the Standardized Reporting Forms (SRFs) for monetary statistics on a timely basis. In January 2015, 10 FSIs for Thailand were published on the IMF’s FSI portal. | |
| Balance of payments: The authorities started publishing balance of payments statistics under BPM6 in September 2011. The historical data goes back to 2005—a longer historical series would be useful. The methodology for compiling balance of payments data remains adequate. Additional source data to complement the ITRS have been developed recently and coverage has been expanded to include estimates of reinvested earnings and worker remittances outflows. Further improvements are expected to enhance the data coverage and accuracy of BOP and IIP statistics, in particular in areas where new concepts have been introduced by BPM6 such as in goods and services. Quarterly IIP data are disseminated since late 2014 (starting with the first quarter of 2012), in line with SDDS’ recommendation. The data are collected quarterly and publicly available with a lag time of one quarter. The last observation available for quarterly IIP is Q3-2014 (at time of assessment). Data on external debt and debt service have significantly improved since the introduction of a quarterly survey of private nonbank external debt. | |
| II. Data Standards and Quality | |
| Subscriber to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) since 1996. | Data ROSC published in April 2006. |
Thailand: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
As of February 23, 2015
Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered, as well as net derivative positions.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).
Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC (published on April 10, 2006 and based on the findings of the mission that took place during October 3–17, 2005) for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO); largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).
Same as footnote 7, except referring to international standards concerning source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of source data, assessment, and revision studies.
Thailand: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
As of February 23, 2015
| Date of Latest Observation | Date Received | Frequency of Data6 | Frequency of Reporting6 | Frequency of Publication6 | Memo Items: | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Quality -Methodological Soundness7 | Data Quality -Accuracy and Reliability8 | ||||||
| Exchange Rates | 2/23/2015 | 2/23/2015 | D | D | D | ||
| International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities1 | 2/13/2015 | 2/23/2015 | W | W | W | ||
| Reserve/Base Money | 12/2014 | 2/20/2015 | M | M | M | O, O, LO, O | O, O, O, O, O |
| Broad Money | 12/2014 | 2/20/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| Central Bank Balance Sheet | 12/2014 | 2/20/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System | 12/2014 | 2/20/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| Interest Rates2 | 2/23/2015 | 2/23/2015 | D | D | D | ||
| Consumer Price Index | 1/2015 | 2/16/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing3- General Government4 | 2014 | 2/19/2015 | A | A | A | O,LO,O,LO | LO, O, O, O, O |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing3- Central Government | 12/2014 | 2/19/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt5 | 12/2014 | 1/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| External Current Account Balance | 12/2014 | 2/12/2015 | M | M | M | O, LO,LO,LO | LO, O, O, O, LO |
| Exports and Imports of Goods and Services | 12/2014 | 2/12/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| GDP/GNP | Q4 2014 | 2/16/2015 | Q | Q | Q | LO, LO, O, LO | O, O, LO, O, O |
| Gross External Debt | 11/ 2014 | 2/12/2015 | M | M | M | ||
Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered, as well as net derivative positions.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).
Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC (published on April 10, 2006 and based on the findings of the mission that took place during October 3–17, 2005) for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO); largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).
Same as footnote 7, except referring to international standards concerning source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of source data, assessment, and revision studies.
Thailand: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
As of February 23, 2015
| Date of Latest Observation | Date Received | Frequency of Data6 | Frequency of Reporting6 | Frequency of Publication6 | Memo Items: | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Quality -Methodological Soundness7 | Data Quality -Accuracy and Reliability8 | ||||||
| Exchange Rates | 2/23/2015 | 2/23/2015 | D | D | D | ||
| International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities1 | 2/13/2015 | 2/23/2015 | W | W | W | ||
| Reserve/Base Money | 12/2014 | 2/20/2015 | M | M | M | O, O, LO, O | O, O, O, O, O |
| Broad Money | 12/2014 | 2/20/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| Central Bank Balance Sheet | 12/2014 | 2/20/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System | 12/2014 | 2/20/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| Interest Rates2 | 2/23/2015 | 2/23/2015 | D | D | D | ||
| Consumer Price Index | 1/2015 | 2/16/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing3- General Government4 | 2014 | 2/19/2015 | A | A | A | O,LO,O,LO | LO, O, O, O, O |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing3- Central Government | 12/2014 | 2/19/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt5 | 12/2014 | 1/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| External Current Account Balance | 12/2014 | 2/12/2015 | M | M | M | O, LO,LO,LO | LO, O, O, O, LO |
| Exports and Imports of Goods and Services | 12/2014 | 2/12/2015 | M | M | M | ||
| GDP/GNP | Q4 2014 | 2/16/2015 | Q | Q | Q | LO, LO, O, LO | O, O, LO, O, O |
| Gross External Debt | 11/ 2014 | 2/12/2015 | M | M | M | ||
Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered, as well as net derivative positions.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).
Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC (published on April 10, 2006 and based on the findings of the mission that took place during October 3–17, 2005) for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO); largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).
Same as footnote 7, except referring to international standards concerning source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of source data, assessment, and revision studies.