Abstract
KEY ISSUES Context: Corrective revenue measures helped keep the program on track and macroeconomic conditions improved in late 2014 following the decline in oil prices. Uncertainties related to the 2015 general elections weigh on the outlook. Program: The Executive Board approved the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) on January 27, 2012, with a total access of 39 percent of quota (SDR 30 million). The fifth review was completed on August 25, 2014. For the sixth review, all performance criteria were observed, aided by the revenue measures taken in July to address the fiscal slippage that emerged earlier in 2014. Satisfactory progress has been made on structural reforms. The authorities have requested a one-year extension of the current ECF arrangement, which expires in March 2015, to enable provision of additional Fund resources via an augmentation of access by an amount equivalent to SDR 10 million (13 percent of quota). Outlook and risks: The macroeconomic outlook is broadly favorable, driven by continued public investment and a gradual recovery in agriculture; however, external vulnerabilities persist due to a protracted decline in coffee exports and high volatility of coffee prices. Under normal harvest conditions, inflation in 2015 is expected to remain in low single digits. Expenditure pressures in the context of the elections constitute a key risk to the fiscal outlook. Staff views: Staff supports the completion of the sixth review under the ECF and the authorities’ requests for an augmentation of access and extension of the current ECF arrangement through March 2016, which will be instrumental to catalyze donor support needed to address Burundi’s protracted balance-of-payments problem. Completion of the review will result in disbursement of an amount equivalent to SDR 5 million under the ECF arrangement.
The Burundian authorities are appreciative of the Fund’s constructive engagement and support under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement (ECF), and thank staff for the helpful policy dialogue and advice. They remain committed to implementing policies and structural reforms under the ECF program to maintain macroeconomic stability, boost inclusive economic growth, lay strong foundation to reduce poverty, and strengthen security and political stability. While the economy is benefiting from the reduction in international oil prices, the authorities are aware that the economy remains fragile due to dwindling donors’ budget support and political uncertainty in the run up to 2015 general elections. Against this backdrop, the authorities are committed to safeguard macroeconomic stability by pursuing prudent fiscal and monetary policies, and enhancing political environment.
In spite of the difficult economic environment, the authorities have made an impressive progress in the implementation of the program. All performance criteria and most end September and end December 2014 indicative targets were met. Further, satisfactory progress was made with the structural reforms. Given this strong performance, the authorities are requesting a one year extension of the current ECF program to create a macroeconomic framework for dialogue with their partners, and allow them to complete the ongoing structural reforms. The authorities are also seeking for augmentation of access under the current ECF arrangement to help them mitigate the heightened BOP needs, and catalyze donor support to the budget in the run up of 2015 general election. In addition, it would create room to smoothly negotiate a new program with the authorities after the general elections. Therefore, the authorities seek the support of the Executive Board in completion of the sixth ECF review, and request for extension and augmentation of access.
Program performance
The program remains on track. All quantitative criteria were observed, and indicative targets end September and end December 2014 were broadly met. While the indicative target for pro–poor spending was observed at end September, it was missed at end December 2014 due to the spending cuts related to the 2014 budget adjustment. Progress on the structural reform has been uneven due partially to the delays in technical assistance. Three out of seven structural benchmarks were implemented timely while one was achieved with delay. Satisfactory progress has been made with two other structural benchmarks related to the audit of extra-budgetary arrears and the decree on the organization chart of administrative and financial directors in line ministries. The structural benchmark related to setting of an interface between the Burundian Revenue Authority (OBR), and the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning was technically impossible until the implementation of the new IT system at OBR is completed. Meanwhile, steps have been taken to improve the sharing of information between the two institutions.
Recent economic developments
Burundi’s economic growth continued to gain momentum in 2014 while inflation declined markedly and the current account narrowed slightly. Economic growth was driven by a rebound in coffee production, construction sector, and the implementation of major infrastructure projects, including fiber optics, hydropower and roads. Headline inflation declined owing to the decrease in international oil prices. The latter contributed to improve terms of trade and trade balance by reducing the cost of imports. Notwithstanding this commendable economic performance, poverty and youth unemployment remain high.
The fiscal policy stance remains in line with the program requirements despite the revenue shortfall and dwindling budget support. The authorities endorsed tax measures in July 2014 to address revenue shortfall recorded in the first half of the year to keep the program on track. At the same time, revenue windfall stemming from the removal of fuel subsidies due to the declining international oil prices improved tax collection. However, the delayed disbursement of budget support widened budget deficit at end December 2014 triggering the increase in domestic debt. Nevertheless, it is expected that the situation will be normalized in the first quarter of 2015 upon the disbursement of the budget support from the African Development Bank and World Bank.
With regard to the monetary policy, the Bank of the Republic of Burundi (BRB) utilized the room created by the lower inflation to ease monetary condition. The BRB reduced its policy rate between June and December 2014 to facilitate credit access. The exchange rate remained flexible while the central bank’s interventions dampened excess exchange rate volatility. To ensure transparency and credibility of monetary policy, the Monetary Policy Committee has continued to publish quarterly reports since 2013 accompanied by a monetary policy statement announcing the monetary authority’s orientation going forward.
Economic outlook and policies
The macroeconomic outlook is favorable due to ongoing public investment in infrastructure which will contribute to boost economic growth. However, notwithstanding the current positive spillovers of low oil prices, external vulnerabilities persist owing to a high volatility of coffee prices, combined with low external financial access. In this regard, the authorities will strive to maintain prudent fiscal and monetary policies to ensure macroeconomic stability. On the structural reforms, more attention will be geared to the main economic growth drivers especially infrastructure, health and education, agriculture, mining sector especially the implementation of nickel project, tourism and regional integration. The authorities will continue to improve business environment to bolster private investment.
Fiscal policy and debt management
In response to lower budget support trend, the authorities will strive to maintain prudent fiscal policy. To that end, the authorities will enhance revenue mobilization and streamline public spending. Although the corrective revenue measures approved in July 2014 are expected to improve domestic resources in the medium term, more efforts are needed to improve the tax ratio to GDP. In this regard, the authorities will continue to strengthen tax administration and widen the tax base, and enhance credibility of the tax policy. Efforts will be made to strengthen the Tax Policy Department in designing and implementing tax policy coherent with the overall fiscal policy objectives. On the expenditure side, the authorities will continue to strengthen expenditure control and seek to create more room to support economic growth. The authorities will also implement the Public Financial Management strategy to strengthen accounting, budget preparation and execution, treasury cash flow management, and management of the Treasury Single Account.
With regard to the debt management, the authorities will strive to source grant and high concessional loans. However, given the scarcity of such resources, the authorities will implement the reforms that will foster the graduation from the high – risk of debt distress. In this regard, the authorities will continue to strengthen debt management capacity, and will make efforts to widen exports base.
Monetary policy and Financial sector development
The central bank will continue to implement monetary policy measures to maintain price stability and exchange rate consistency with the economic fundamentals. In the context of low inflation the authorities will ease monetary conditions while avoiding reigniting inflation pressure. To enhance the effectiveness of the monetary policy instruments, different measures including improving liquidity management, deepening the domestic financial market and enhancing inter – banks monetary market will be taken to reinforce monetary transmission mechanism. Exchange rate flexibility will be maintained while reducing excess volatility through interventions.
The banking system is broadly well capitalized, liquid and profitable. However, given the increased non-performing loans from 10.3 percent in 2013 to 12.5 percent in September 2014, the authorities will strengthen banking surveillance to ensure the soundness of the financial system. Furthermore, in order to enhance intermediation operations and boost credit to the private sector, the authorities will implement measures like the establishment of credit bureau, collateral registry, and improving the supervision of microfinance institutions.
Structural reforms
The authorities will continue to deepen structural reforms to unleash high potential economic growth. They will implement reforms to address the low productivity in agriculture, especially in coffee sector. In addition, to alleviate infrastructure bottlenecks several projects are underway in the energy sector. This will contribute to diversify the economy and develop large country’s mineral potential. Moreover, efforts will also be focused on improving business climate, and enhancing regional integration.
Conclusion
The Burundian authorities are aware that macroeconomic stability is a key pillar to foster economic growth and reduce poverty. In this regard, despite challenging environment, the authorities are committed to maintaining prudent fiscal and monetary policies. In addition, to unlocking the growth potential, they are committed to sustain the momentum to structural reforms to improve productivity, support economic diversification, and enhance regional integration. Further to this, the authorities will mitigate political uncertainty by strengthening the dialogue among key political stakeholders.