Malawi: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers for Non-Observance of Performance Criteria, Extension of the Arrangement, Modification of Performance Criterion, and Rephasing of Disbursements—Informational Annex

KEY ISSUES The IMF has been supporting Malawi under an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. A 36 month, SDR 104.1 million (150 percent of quota) Extended Arrangement under the ECF was approved by the Executive Board on July 23, 2012 and the Third and Fourth reviews were concluded on January 17, 2014. A total of SDR 52.06 million has been disbursed to date. The sixth and seventh tranches totaling SDR13.02 million will be available upon the completion of the Fifth and Sixth review. The “cashgate” scandal that came to light in October 2013 has had major political and economic consequences. While President Banda’s government initially responded with strong actions, allowing the third and fourth ECF program reviews to be completed in January 2014, these efforts were not sustained. In the run up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in May 2014, further governance concerns emerged and macroeconomic policies drifted off track. As a result, donor budget support remained suspended, resulting in increased recourse to domestic financing, monetization of the deficit, and the emergence of domestic payment arrears. As confidence waned, the exchange rate depreciated further and inflation became entrenched in the range 20–25 percent. Reflecting these developments, program implementation was uneven given external financing shortfalls with several performance criteria not being observed. Three out of seven performance criteria for the fifth review were not met, including the continuous performance criterion on the contracting of non-concessional external loans. For the sixth review, while the end-June 2014 target for international reserves was met, several other quantitative targets were not observed and implementation of a few structural benchmarks set at the time of the third and fourth reviews was delayed.

Abstract

KEY ISSUES The IMF has been supporting Malawi under an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. A 36 month, SDR 104.1 million (150 percent of quota) Extended Arrangement under the ECF was approved by the Executive Board on July 23, 2012 and the Third and Fourth reviews were concluded on January 17, 2014. A total of SDR 52.06 million has been disbursed to date. The sixth and seventh tranches totaling SDR13.02 million will be available upon the completion of the Fifth and Sixth review. The “cashgate” scandal that came to light in October 2013 has had major political and economic consequences. While President Banda’s government initially responded with strong actions, allowing the third and fourth ECF program reviews to be completed in January 2014, these efforts were not sustained. In the run up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in May 2014, further governance concerns emerged and macroeconomic policies drifted off track. As a result, donor budget support remained suspended, resulting in increased recourse to domestic financing, monetization of the deficit, and the emergence of domestic payment arrears. As confidence waned, the exchange rate depreciated further and inflation became entrenched in the range 20–25 percent. Reflecting these developments, program implementation was uneven given external financing shortfalls with several performance criteria not being observed. Three out of seven performance criteria for the fifth review were not met, including the continuous performance criterion on the contracting of non-concessional external loans. For the sixth review, while the end-June 2014 target for international reserves was met, several other quantitative targets were not observed and implementation of a few structural benchmarks set at the time of the third and fourth reviews was delayed.

Relations with the Fund

(As of December 31, 2014)

Membership Status

Joined: July 19, 1965; Article VIII

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans:

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Latest Financial Arrangements:

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formerly PRGF.

Projected Payments to Fund1

(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.

Implementation of HIPC Initiative:

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Assistance committed under the original framework is expressed in net present value (NPV) terms at the completion point, and assistance committed under the enhanced framework is expressed in NPV terms at the decision point. Hence these two amounts cannot be added.

Under the enhanced framework, an additional disbursement is made at the completion point corresponding to interest income earned on the amount committed at the decision point but not disbursed during the interim period.

Implementation of Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI):

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The MDRI provides 100 percent debt relief to eligible member countries that qualified for the assistance. Grant assistance from the MDRI Trust and HIPC resources provide debt relief to cover the full stock of debt owed to the Fund as of end-2004 that remains outstanding at the time the member qualifies for such debt relief.

Implementation of Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief (PCDR): Not Applicable

Safeguards Assessments:

An update safeguards assessment of the Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) with respect to the 2012 ECF was completed on December 27, 2012. The assessment reiterated the key safeguards concern – the lack of operational autonomy - and recommended that already envisaged amendments to the RBM Act to limit lending to government be expanded to strengthen RBM autonomy more broadly. The assessment also reiterated the need to enhance oversight of foreign reserves management along with measures to strengthen transparency of financial reporting.

Exchange Arrangements:

In 2006 the Fund determined that Malawi maintains a multiple currency practice (MCP) inconsistent with Article VIII, Section 3, due to a spread of more than 2% between the exchange rates of commercial banks and the rates of foreign exchange bureaus. At that time, the Fund determined that the spread resulted from official action by RBM, through informal limitation on the availability of foreign exchange and moral suasion on commercial banks.

In May 2012, the government liberalized the foreign exchange regime, devalued the kwacha by about 33 percent, and adopted a floating exchange rate regime. Since May 2012, the RBM has not set a target rate and allowed substantial volatility in the exchange rate, including recent depreciation to around MK 473.7 per U.S. dollar at end-December 2014. Official actions continue to play a role in influencing the exchange rate, but the exchange rate movements are largely market determined. Therefore, the de jure (as well as de facto) exchange rate arrangement was reclassified to floating from other managed arrangement.

Article IV Consultation:

Malawi is on a 24-month Article IV consultation cycle. The last Article IV Consultation mission was conducted in conjunction with the discussions on the new ECF-supported program arrangement in May/June 2012. The Executive Board concluded the last Article IV consultation with Malawi on July 23, 2012.

Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), Reports on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSCs), and Offshore Financial Center (OFC) Assessments:

A joint team of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund visited Malawi under the FSAP program during two missions in July and December 2007. The Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) was issued in June 2008.

Corporate Governance and Accounting and Auditing ROSC missions visited Malawi in February and June 2007.

An update on the FAD mission on the fiscal transparency module was issued in March 2007. A ROSC on the data module, based on a September 2003 mission, was published in October, 2004.

Technical Assistance:

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Joint Managerial Action Plan

(January 12, 2015)

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Relations with the African Development Bank Group

(As of December 31, 2014)

AfDB operations in Malawi date back to 1969. The Malawi Field Office was opened in 2007 and officially launched in July 2008 by AfDB President Dr. Donald Kaberuka. As at December 31, 2014, the Bank had provided significant and diversified support to Malawi, with cumulative commitments worth UA 852.8 million (about US$ 1.3 billion) to finance 100 operations including 12 studies and 2 lines of credit.

The AfDB Board of Directors on 30th January 2013 approved a new Country Strategy Paper (CSP) covering 2013–17. The Bank’s current CSP is fully aligned to the second Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS II) covering the period 2011–16, the Bank’s corporate priorities in the Long Term Strategy (LTS, 2013–22) and the Regional Integration Strategy Paper for Southern Africa (Southern African RISP, 2011–15). The CSP, which is under implementation, focuses on two pillars: (i) addressing infrastructure bottlenecks to competitiveness and growth; and (ii) supporting actions to expand private sector investment and trade. To ease challenges posed by Malawi’s landlocked position, the Bank has scaled-up support to regional infrastructure to deepen the country’s integration with its neighbors. Accordingly, more than 50 percent of the indicative lending operations are regional and will be financed with ADF, XIII and XIV resources. The Bank will also support Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) in infrastructure development. The CSP mid- term review will be undertaken in 2015.

Following Governments reengagement with the IMF and the approval of a new US$ 157 million Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Malawi in July 2012, the Bank approved a new ADF Grant for the Crisis Response Budget Support operation for Malawi in July 2012, in the amount of UA 26 million (US$ 40 million). The Bank designed a Restoration of Fiscal Stability and Social Protection (RFSSP) program whose objective is to contribute to restoring fiscal stability and enhancing public finance management in Malawi, as well as support social protection measures to mitigate the adverse social impact of the devaluation of the Kwacha and the increases in fuel and electricity prices. In order to support this agenda, the RFSSP has two components: (i) strengthened PFM transparency and accountability, and (ii) strengthened social protection system. The Bank disbursed UA 4 million (US$ 6 million) as additional budgetary support in June 2013. The Bank has completed appraisal of the Protection of Basic Services Program of US $ 30 million, which is expected to be presented for Board approval, the first quarter of 2015. This Sector Budget Support program is designed to protect critical expenditures in health, education and social protection and improve accountability following suspension of general budget support.

Box. AfDB Ongoing Operations.

The Bank’s ongoing operations comprise the following: three projects in the agriculture sector: (i) Agriculture Infrastructure Support Project (AISP); (ii) Small-holder Irrigation and Value Addition Project and (iii) Climate Adaptation for Rural Livelihoods and Agriculture Project (grant from Global Environment Facility). The Bank is also financing through the African Water Facility (AWF) grants the Water Sector Monitoring & Evaluation Strengthening Project and the Water and Sanitation Access project for the Urban Poor in the City of Blantyre which is aimed at improving access to improved water supply and sanitation services. There are currently three projects providing support to the social sector and for economic empowerment (i) the the Local Economic Development project is developing infrastructure in four rural growth centers of Jenda, Malomo, Monkey Bay and Chitekesa; (ii) the Competitiveness and Job Creation Project in Private sector which aims to improve the capabilities and the competitiveness of the private sector as well as increase export diversification and job creation ; and (iii) Support to Higher Education Science & Technology Project aims to increase access to technical, entrepreneurship, vocational and training (TEVET) and higher education in Malawi, with particular emphasis to Information and Communication Technology (ICT). In the transport sector the Bank is supporting the Trunk Roads Rehabilitation Project which includes Blantyre-Zomba road rehabilitation project (60 km) and the Lilongwe Bypass construction Project (13km) as part of the Multinational Nacala Road Corridor. As at the end of December 2014, the overall portfolio was rated satisfactory with an average disbursement rate of 29% In line with the CSP indicative program, the Bank approved four new operations in 2013, the Mzuzu-Nkhata Bay Road Rehabilitation Project (US$ 33.20m), Smallholder Irrigation and Value Addition Project (US$39.98m) funded by Global Agriculture and Food Security Project and the African Development Fund, the multinational Nacala Road Corridor Development Project Phase IV (US$65.9m) and the Public Finance Management Institutional Support Project (about US $ 4.5 million). The PFM Project, which the Board approved in October, 2013, is supporting the Government of Malawi in implementing its five-year Public Finance and Economic Management Reform Program (PFEMRP) through improved tax administration and procurement systems. In April, 2014, the Board also approved Phase II of the National Water Development Programme (about US $ 35 million).

The Bank has also provided support for non-lending activities, including feasibility studies and analytic work to inform the design of new operations and policy dialogue. During 2012–2013 the Bank prepared a Private Sector Profile for Malawi and has also financed jointly with the World Bank and other partners a Public Expenditure Review. In addition, the Bank is supporting the Private Public Partnership Commission (PPPC) with a grant to implement the Capacity Building and Assessment of the Legislative and Institutional Framework for PPPs in Malawi. The Bank also undertook the Domestic Resource Mobilization Study for Malawi in 2013/2014 and provided TA to the Reserve Bank of Malawi to strengthen capacity in macro-economic forecasting.

Statistical Issues

Malawi—STATISTICAL ISSUES APPENDIX

As of February 2015

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Economic classifications were upgraded to GFS 2001 compatible framework in FY 2006/07.

Malawi: Tables of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of January, 2015)

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign and domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).

These columns should only be included for countries for which Data ROSC (or a Substantive Update) has been published.

Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC or the Substantive Update (published on March 10, 2004, and based on the findings of the mission that took place during May 8–21, 2003) for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording, respectively, are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO); largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).

Same as footnote 9, except referring to international standards concerning, respectively, source data, assessment of source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs, and revision studies.

Malawi: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers for Non-Observance of Performance Criteria, Extension of the Arrangement, Modification of Performance Criterion, and Rephasing of Disbursements
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.