Romania: Staff Report for the Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex
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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
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KEY ISSUES Background: Romania has in large part reduced internal and external imbalances through sound macroeconomic policies. However, income convergence with the EU has been slow and weak public infrastructure has emerged as a bottleneck for faster growth. At the same time, Romania remains vulnerable to external shocks and the repair of balance sheets is not yet complete. Policy recommendations: Going forward, sustainable macroeconomic policies need to be combined with measures that boost the efficiency of public spending, reinvigorate delayed state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms, and resolve crisis legacies in the financial sector. • Fiscal policy. Maintain the fiscal adjustment achievements, put public debt on a firm downward path, ensure provision of higher quality public infrastructure, and improve revenue administration and public expenditure management including through higher absorption of EU funds. • Monetary policy. Keep the easing bias as inflation has fallen below the target band and support a private credit rebound. Improve the policy framework by gradually moving to full-fledged inflation targeting. • Financial sector. Maintain the intense watch on the banking system focused on asset quality and non-performing loans reduction, further strengthen non-bank supervision, develop capital markets, and create effective insolvency frameworks. • Structural reforms. Improve financial performance and generate resources for investment of SOEs by implementing good governance principles, restructuring and increased private ownership; further deregulate energy markets. Outlook and risks: Staff expects sustained growth supported by strong domestic demand. Better EU funds absorption could boost the growth potential by about ½ percent annually. However, increased volatility in the external environment and failure to implement a much needed infrastructure upgrade present downside risks.

Abstract

KEY ISSUES Background: Romania has in large part reduced internal and external imbalances through sound macroeconomic policies. However, income convergence with the EU has been slow and weak public infrastructure has emerged as a bottleneck for faster growth. At the same time, Romania remains vulnerable to external shocks and the repair of balance sheets is not yet complete. Policy recommendations: Going forward, sustainable macroeconomic policies need to be combined with measures that boost the efficiency of public spending, reinvigorate delayed state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms, and resolve crisis legacies in the financial sector. • Fiscal policy. Maintain the fiscal adjustment achievements, put public debt on a firm downward path, ensure provision of higher quality public infrastructure, and improve revenue administration and public expenditure management including through higher absorption of EU funds. • Monetary policy. Keep the easing bias as inflation has fallen below the target band and support a private credit rebound. Improve the policy framework by gradually moving to full-fledged inflation targeting. • Financial sector. Maintain the intense watch on the banking system focused on asset quality and non-performing loans reduction, further strengthen non-bank supervision, develop capital markets, and create effective insolvency frameworks. • Structural reforms. Improve financial performance and generate resources for investment of SOEs by implementing good governance principles, restructuring and increased private ownership; further deregulate energy markets. Outlook and risks: Staff expects sustained growth supported by strong domestic demand. Better EU funds absorption could boost the growth potential by about ½ percent annually. However, increased volatility in the external environment and failure to implement a much needed infrastructure upgrade present downside risks.

Fund Relations

As of January 31, 2015

Membership Status Joined 12/15/72 Article VIII

General Resources Account

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SDR Department

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans

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Financial Arrangements

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Projected Payments to Fund (Expectations Basis)1

(SDR million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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Exchange Rate Arrangement

Romania has accepted the obligations of Article VIII and maintains an exchange rate system free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers on current international transactions except for those maintained solely for the preservation of national or international security in accordance with UNSC resolutions and that have been notified to the Fund under the procedure set forth in Executive Board Decision No. 144-(52/51). The de jure exchange rate arrangement is managed floating.

Technical Assistance

Capacity building in Romania has been supported by substantial technical assistance from multilateral agencies and bilateral donors. The Fund has provided support in a number of areas with about 20 technical assistance missions and expert visits since 2012. Expert Fund assistance has focused in recent years mostly on structural fiscal reforms, in particular modernizing tax administration, strengthening public financial management, and reviewing tax policy options. Technical assistance to the National Bank of Romania focused on upgrading contingency planning, dealing with non-performing loans, and reviewing monetary and exchange rate policy tools.

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Article IV Consultations

Romania is on a 24-month consultation cycle during the Stand-By Arrangement. The previous Article IV consultation was concluded by the Executive Board on September 28, 2012.

Safeguards Assessment

The update of the 2011 safeguards assessment, completed on January 10, 2014, found that the safeguards framework at the National Bank of Romania remains robust. The NBR continues to publish audited financial statements and maintains strong controls over foreign reserves management, government banking, and vault operations. The assessment recommended that the internal audits of foreign reserves data (a measure during both the 2009 and 2011 Stand-By Arrangements) be continued during the current program.

FSAP and ROSC

A joint IMF-World Bank mission conducted an update assessment of Romania’s financial sector as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) during November 3–14, 2008. The Financial Sector Assessment Report (FSSA) was discussed at the Board in April 2009.

A recent pilot of the IMF’s new Fiscal Transparency Evaluation took place in February 2014 and the findings were published in March 2015. It assessed the government’s fiscal reporting, forecasting, and risks management practices against the IMF’s revised Fiscal Transparency Code.

Resident Representative

The Fund has had a resident representative in Bucharest since 1991. Mr. Guillermo Tolosa assumed the post of regional resident representative in July 2013.

Relations with the World Bank

The current World Bank Group Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Romania, covering the period 2014–7, was presented to the Board on May 22, 2014. The strategy aims at reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity. The CPS is built on three pillars; (i) Creating a 21st Century Government, with focus on a well-functioning public administration, effective in its service delivery and with an improved quality of public expenditure. (ii) Growth and Private Sector Job Creation, seeking sustainable poverty mitigation and shared prosperity through improvements in the business environment and SOE governance (especially in energy and transport), promoting innovation, and furthering the digital agenda and competitiveness, and (iii) Social Inclusion, a key to the EU’s Europe 2020 Agenda, with a special focus on the Roma community.

i. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)

Romania’s portfolio consists of seven active projects that amount to US$2.4 billion, complemented by four country-executed trust funds totaling US$10.7 million, a program of 21 Reimbursable Advisory Services worth US$48.3 million, and five (Bank-funded) analytical pieces:

  • The lending portfolio includes seven investment projects, including the recently approved Health Sector Reform Project (US$339 million), the Results-Based Project for Social Assistance System Modernization (US$710 million), an Integrated Nutrient Pollution Control Project (US$68 million), a Judicial Reform Project (US$130 million), and a Revenue Administration Modernization Project (US$92 million). The Portfolio also includes a budget support operation in support of Fiscal Effectiveness and Growth (US$1035 million) to support Romania’s goals of: (i) strengthening fiscal management (debt management and the quality of public spending) and SOE performance; and (ii) improving the functioning of property, energy, and capital markets.

  • The country-executed trust funds focus on (i) afforestation; (ii) nutrients pollution control; (iii) policymaking for people with disabilities; and (iv) monitoring and evaluation of policy making.

  • Among the 21 Reimbursable Advisory Services (RAS), a few provide support to the government in improving the public sector management for efficient and effective service delivery by: (i) shifting towards a results-driven culture, improved policy prioritization, implementation, and coordination, (ii) strengthening public investment management, (iii) introducing performance management systems for EU funds, and (iv) supporting the strategic activities to meet the EU funding conditions, for education, social inclusion, active aging (EU 2014–20 program budget).

  • Analytical work (Bank-funded) includes a Programmatic Public Expenditure Review, including wage bill planning, and a Decentralization Report examining ways to improve the system of local service provision. Other Bank-funded analytical work includes advice on the Mining Sector Strategy, and a Financial Sector Note.

Three new projects are under preparation: a Secondary Education (FY2015); a Social Inclusion and Basic Services Project (FY2016, in the early preparation stage); and a Second Fiscal Effectiveness and Growth Development Policy Loan (FY2016).

ii. International Finance Corporation (IFC)

IFC’s current committed portfolio is US$613 million, the fifth largest in the Europe and Central Asia region after Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Serbia. IFC has played an active crisis response role in Romania, investing US$1.1 billion of its own funds and mobilizing an additional US$277 million in 36 projects since July 2009, with particular support provided to the financial, renewable energy, and health sectors. IFC has implemented 26 Advisory Services projects in Romania since 1990 in a variety of sectors.

Statistical Issues

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Romania: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of February 18, 2015)

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic non-bank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds), and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Daily (D), weekly (W), monthly (M), quarterly (Q), annually (A), irregular (I); and not available (NA).

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

1

This schedule presents all currently scheduled payments to the IMF, including repayment expectations where applicable and repayment obligations otherwise. The IMF Executive Board can extend repayment expectations (within predetermined limits) upon request by the debtor country if its external payments position is not strong enough to meet the expectations without undue hardship or risk.

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