IMF Country Report No. 15/64

Abstract

IMF Country Report No. 15/64

Contents

IMF Country Report No. 15/64

March 2015

This Selected Issues Paper on Niger was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 3, 2014.

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© 2015 International Monetary Fund

Contents

NIGER

SELECTED ISSUES

December 3, 2014

Approved By

The African Department

Prepared By Jimmy Apaa-Okello, Mamadou Barry, Cheikh A. Gueye, Jehann Jack, Daniela Marchettini (all AFR); Manabu Nose (FAD); Grace Bin Li (RES); Hou Wang (RES/SPR).

Contents

  • EXTERNAL STABILITY ASSESSMENT

  • A. External Sector Development

  • B. Model-Based Assessment

  • C. Broader Competitiveness Indicators

  • D. Conclusion

  • BOX

  • Model-Based Real Effective Exchange Rate Assessments

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Balance of Payment Characteristics 2000, 2005 and 2010-19

  • 2. Results of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Assessment

  • 3. Doing Business Ranking, 2014

  • 4. Now Niger Ranks on Doing Business Topics, 2014

  • 5. The Main Obstacles for Doing Business

  • NATURAL RESOURCE BOOM FOR NIGER: FROM PUBLIC INVESTMENT TO SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Baseline vs. Aggressive Public Investment Plans under the Baseline Natural Resource GDP Scenario

  • 2. Baseline vs. Aggressive Public Investment Plans under the Adverse Natural Resource GDP Scenario

  • APPENDIX

  • Key Model Equations

  • REFERENCES

  • FISCAL POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT: SPENDING PRIORITY IN NIGER

  • A. Recent Fiscal Situation

  • B. Level and Efficiency of Spending—Cross-Country Comparison

  • C. Development Needs and Strategy

  • D. Policy Recommendations

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Correlation of Resource Revenue, Expenditure, and Output Gap

  • 2. Cross-Country Comparison of Pro-Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in WAEMU+Countries (2008-14)

  • 3. Composition of Spending in Initial Budget Law

  • 4. Selected Social Indicators (Education)

  • 5. Growth Impacts of the Level of Expenditure and Educational Attainment

  • TABLE

  • 1. Decomposition of Output per Worker

  • 2. Budget Allocation and Execution of Social Spending

  • REFERENCES

  • ENERGY SECTOR CHALLENGES IN NIGER

  • A. Introduction

  • B. Overview of the Energy Sector

  • C. Challenges of the Energy Sector

  • D. The Discovery of Oil and New Challenges in Energy Sector Management

  • E. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

  • FIGURES

  • 1. WAEMU: Total Electricity Net Consumption, 2007-11

  • 2. Energy Intensity versus Primary Energy Consumption, 1980-2011

  • TABLE

  • 1. Petroleum Price Structure, as of August 1, 2013

  • REFERENCES

  • INCLUSIVE GROWTH AHEAD OF OIL PRODUCTION

  • A. Introduction

  • B. Stylized Facts

  • C. How Pro-Poor and Inclusive was Growth during 2005-2011?

  • D. The Determinants of Poverty in Niger

  • E. Conclusion and Policy Implications

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Stylized facts: Economic and Social Indicators and the Business Environment

  • 2a. Inflation, 2000-13

  • 2b. Main Obstacles for Doing Business

  • 3. Growth Inclusiveness

  • REFERENCES

  • FOOD SECURITY FOR MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Weekly Millet Price (lagged five weeks) and Admissions to MSF Feeding Centre in Maradi, 2005

  • 2. Changes in the Terms of Trade Between Millet, Livestock, Onions and Rural Wages, 2005-09 and 2009-10

  • TABLE

  • 1. Food Crisis, 2000-12

  • REGIONAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY: FOOD CRISES IN 2005 AND 2010

  • A. Background

  • B. Volume and Determinants of Trade

  • C. The Events of the 2005 and 2010 Food Crises

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Selected Economies: Cereal Production Volatility

  • 2. Selected Economies: Food Inflation. 2000-13

  • 3. Changes in the Terms of Trade Between Millet, Livestock, Onions and Rural Wages, 2005-09 and 2009-10

  • DRIVING FACTORS OF MIDDLE CLASS’ BULGE: A CROSS-COUNTRY VIEW

  • A. Economic Growth and Income Distribution

  • B. Jobs and Education

  • FINANCIAL INCLUSION, ACCESSIBILITY, AND DEVELOPMENT

  • A. Theoretical Framework

  • B. Stylized Facts

  • C. Policy Recommendations

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Financial Intermediation and Development, 1988-2014

  • 2. SSA vs. Niger: Financial Inclusion Indicators, 2011

  • 3. Bank Net Interest Margin and Overhead Costs, 2004-11

  • TABLES

  • 1. Cross-Country Comparison of Selected Doing Business Indicators, 2012

  • 2. Dependent Variable – Ratio of Private Credit by Deposit Money Banks to GDP

  • REFERENCES

  • FINANCIAL SECTOR PROFILE

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Financial Depth and Inclusion

  • 2. Bank Credit Allocation and Maturity Structure

  • TABLE

  • 1. Financial Soundness Indicators