Abstract
This Selected Issues paper examines how surges in global financial market volatility spill over to emerging market economies (EMs) including India. The results suggest that a surge in global financial market volatility is transmitted very strongly to key macroeconomic and financial variables of EMs, and the extent of its pass-through increases with the depth of external balance-sheet linkages between advanced countries and EMs. The paper also looks at food inflation, which has often been singled out as a key driver of India’s high and persistent inflation.
India’s Progress on Achieving The Millennium Development Goals1
As the development community turns to the post-2015 agenda and forms a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), we assess India’s present performance on achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). India appears to be on track to meet one-and-a-half, likely miss three-and-a-half, and partially meet three of the eight goals by the end-2015 target date. Overall progress has been mixed, but India has made important strides on the key target of poverty reduction.
1. With one year remaining before the end-2015 target date for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), India is on track to meet one-and-a-half, will likely miss three-and-a-half, and likely partially meet three of the eight goals. The MDGs were established in 2000, with the then-189 United Nations member states and many international organizations committing to achieving the targets by December 31, 2015. The eight goals are to: (1) eradicate extreme poverty and hunger; (2) achieve universal primary education; (3) promote gender equality and empower women; (4) reduce child mortality; (5) improve maternal health; (6) combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases; (7) ensure environmental sustainability; which includes access to safe drinking water and sanitation; and (8) develop a global partnership for development, which includes affordable access to essential drugs and availability of new technology. There are 21 targets that correspond to the eight goals, and the guidelines suggest the use of over 50 indicators to measure progress on the targets. Data gaps exist for many countries, however, which prevent the use of all indicators. India has adapted the MDG framework, by focusing on 12 of the 21 targets and using 35 of the over 50 indicators available to track progress.
| Goal | Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Summary of Progress |
|---|---|
| Poverty and hunger | On-track for poverty, slow or almost off-track for hunger |
| Universal primary education | On-track |
| Gender equality | On-track |
| Child mortality | Moderately on-track due to the sharp decline in recent years |
| Maternal health | Slow or off-track |
| HIV/AIDS, malaria, other diseases | On-track for HIV, moderately on-track for Malaria and TB |
| Environmental sustainability | On-track for water but slow for sanitation; moderately on-track for ‘integrate principle of sustainable development into country policies and reverse the loss of environmental resources’ pattern not statistically discernible for ‘by 2020, to have acheived improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers’ |
| Development partnership | On-track for ‘make available the benefits of new technologies, especially ICT’ |
| Goal | Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Summary of Progress |
|---|---|
| Poverty and hunger | On-track for poverty, slow or almost off-track for hunger |
| Universal primary education | On-track |
| Gender equality | On-track |
| Child mortality | Moderately on-track due to the sharp decline in recent years |
| Maternal health | Slow or off-track |
| HIV/AIDS, malaria, other diseases | On-track for HIV, moderately on-track for Malaria and TB |
| Environmental sustainability | On-track for water but slow for sanitation; moderately on-track for ‘integrate principle of sustainable development into country policies and reverse the loss of environmental resources’ pattern not statistically discernible for ‘by 2020, to have acheived improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers’ |
| Development partnership | On-track for ‘make available the benefits of new technologies, especially ICT’ |
2. Poverty and hunger. Poverty: The target of halving the proportion of population in poverty between 1990 and 2015 has been met. The share of people below the national poverty line decreased from 45.3 percent in 1993 to 21.9 percent in 2011, and the share of people living on less than $1.25 (PPP) a day fell from 49.4 percent in 1993 to 24.7 percent in 2011. However, the share of the poorest quintile in national consumption has not seen much improvement, increasing slightly from 9.6 percent in 1993/94 to 9.8 percent in 2009/10 in rural areas, and decreasing slightly from 8 percent to 7.1 percent in that time period in urban areas. Hunger: The percentage of undernourished people has fallen from 25.5 percent of the population in 1991 to 17 percent in 2012, leaving the target of halving the proportion of people suffering from hunger by 2015 unlikely to be met.
Evolution of Poverty in India
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 062; 10.5089/9781498316200.002.A011
Sources: Indian authorities, and IMF staffEvolution of Poverty in India
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 062; 10.5089/9781498316200.002.A011
Sources: Indian authorities, and IMF staffEvolution of Poverty in India
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 062; 10.5089/9781498316200.002.A011
Sources: Indian authorities, and IMF staff3. Universalprimaryeducation. This target has been met according to the adjusted net enrollment in primary school measure, which was 99 percent in 2007. Similarly, the primary school completion rate has improved steadily, up from 70 percent in 1999 to 96 percent in 2011. Youth literacy improved from 62 percent in 1991 to reach 81 percent by 2006.
4. Genderequality. The target of eliminating gender disparity in primary education was met in 2008, but has yet to be met in secondary or tertiary education. Female literacy was lower than male literacy, at 74 and 88 percent, respectively, among youth in 2006. The share of females in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector is estimated at 19 percent for 2011/12, and the proportion of seats in parliament held by women has increased from 5 percent in 1990 to a still low 11 percent in 2013. Although not a formal indicator in the assessment framework, female labor force participation is low and has been declining over time (see also Selected Issues Chapter XII on female labor force participation).
Female Labor Force Participation Rate
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 062; 10.5089/9781498316200.002.A011
Source: NSSO EU Surveys and IMF Staff calculationsFemale Labor Force Participation Rate
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 062; 10.5089/9781498316200.002.A011
Source: NSSO EU Surveys and IMF Staff calculationsFemale Labor Force Participation Rate
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 062; 10.5089/9781498316200.002.A011
Source: NSSO EU Surveys and IMF Staff calculations5. Childmortality. Despite rapid recent progress, India will likely miss its target of reducing the under-five mortality rate to 42 per thousand births (one third the 1990 level) by 2015. The under-five mortality rate has declined dramatically from 126 per thousand in 1990 to 53 in 2013. The infant (under-one) mortality rate has fallen by almost half and is at 42 per thousand in 2013, yet is also likely to miss the target of 27 by 2015.
6. Maternalhealth. India will likely miss the target of reducing the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) from an estimated 437 per 100,000 live births in 1990 to 109 by 2015 (one quarter the 1990 level), although the pace of decline has increased in recent years. MMR was 190 per 100,000 live births in 2013. The share of births attended by skilled personnel was 76 percent in 2009, suggesting the goal of universal coverage will likely not be achieved.
7. The final three goals are difficult to assess, due to both lack of data availability and sub-targets without clear indicators. In environmental sustainability, the target of halving the proportion of households without access to safe drinking water sources from its 1990 level has been met, but access to sanitation facilities is still low, at 53 percent of households in 2011. In partnership for development, the number of telephones per 100 persons has increased rapidly from 9 in 2005 to 73.5 in 2013, and internet users are at 15 percent of the population in 2013.
Maternal and Child Mortality
(Per 10000 live births)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 062; 10.5089/9781498316200.002.A011
Sources: WDI 2013 and IMF staff calculations.Maternal and Child Mortality
(Per 10000 live births)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 062; 10.5089/9781498316200.002.A011
Sources: WDI 2013 and IMF staff calculations.Maternal and Child Mortality
(Per 10000 live births)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 062; 10.5089/9781498316200.002.A011
Sources: WDI 2013 and IMF staff calculations.8. Overall, the data indicate that India is on track to meet one-and-a-half, will likely miss three-and-a-half, and will likely partially meet three of the eight goals by the end-2015 target date. While progress has been mixed, India has made important strides on the key target of poverty reduction (see Anand and Tulin 2014), on providing people with access to improved water, and on expanding access to information and communication technology. Even though India will likely not meet the goal of reducing child mortality to one third the 1990 level, it will come close since the decline in the rate has accelerated in recent years. Despite the progress made, alleviating hunger, overcoming gender inequality, bolstering maternal health, and improved sanitation continue to be areas of outstanding concern.
References
Anand, R., V. Tulin and N. Kumar, 2014, “India: Defining and Explaining Inclusive Growth and Poverty Reduction,” IMF Working Paper WP/14/63 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, 2014, Millennium Development Goals, India Country Report 2014, Social Statistics Division, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India.
World Bank, 2013, World Development Indicators.
Prepared by Sonali Das.
