Abstract
KEY ISSUESThe Ebola outbreak has inflicted a heavy toll on Guinea’s economy notwithstandingthe supportive macroeconomic policies the authorities put in place. Fiscal policy hasexpanded to reflect revenue shortfalls and higher Ebola-related spending, resulting in amarkedly higher budget deficit. Monetary policy has also been supportive, as inflationcontinued to trend downwards and reserve coverage of imports has remained adequate.Performance under the ECF program has been satisfactory. All quantitativeperformance criteria have been met. With the authorities focused on combating the Ebolaoutbreak, however, structural reform has advanced at a slower pace than previouslyenvisaged, delaying the implementation of a number of structural benchmarks.Macroeconomic policies in 2015 will remain supportive to help deal with the Ebolaoutbreak, which looks set to persist well into the year and induce a slight economiccontraction. The 2015 budget foresees a widening of the deficit to provide space forEbola-related spending, finance a significant salary increase for civil servants, and supportthe economy. Monetary policy will be relaxed to provide adequate liquidity to the privatesector and facilitate bank financing of the government budget. A concerted internationaleffort is needed to help the authorities fully implement their Ebola response plan. The2015 structural reform agenda focuses on finalizing growth-friendly measures.Risks are tilted to the downside. A prolonged presence of the Ebola epidemic couldfurther disrupt economic activity. The renewal of political tensions and politicaluncertainty in the run-up to the presidential elections in 2015 could discourage investorsand affect growth. However, Guinea would benefit from the recent decline in oil pricesStaff supports the completion of the 5th review under the ECF arrangement andfinancing assurances review and requests for: (i) an extension of the currentarrangement to end-2015; (ii) an augmentation in access; and (iii) disbursement of25 percent of quota as budget support under the 5th review. Completion of the reviewwill result in disbursement of SDR 45.135 million (42.1 percent of quota).
Recent Developments and Program Implementation
1. Guinea continues to be hit hard by the Ebola outbreak. After the infection rate slowed somewhat through early November, it has leveled out at around 20 cases per day (Box 1). The epidemic remains concentrated in the south-east border region with Sierra Leone and Liberia (70 percent) and around the capital Conakry (20 percent). But it has now extended north toward bauxite and gold producing regions. The government continues its aggressive efforts to control the epidemic: between mid-November and early December five new treatment centers have been opened bringing the total to seven plus one transit center in the epicenter of the outbreak, in the south-eastern part of the country. Also, efforts to overcome the public’s resistance to interventions by medical personnel have expanded and the rate of monitoring of persons in contact with those infected has risen to 90–95 percent. Still staff expects that it will be well into 2015 before the disease is eliminated.
Guinea: Recent Data on the Ebola Epidemic
The Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak continues to spread geographically, in both cities with high population density and rural zones where people resort first to traditional healers. After a sharp acceleration from end-August and a peak in October, contamination has slowed down somewhat in the past weeks, but a marked downward trend has not yet emerged. As of January 6, 2,783 cases and 1,791 deaths (of which 72 were health workers) were reported, compared with 2,164 cases and 1,327 deaths on November 30. According to WHO, children infected by EVD in Guinea represent 20 percent of the total number of cases.
Guinea—Number of Cases and Deaths from Ebola, March–December 2014
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 039; 10.5089/9781498309561.002.A001
Guinea—Number of Cases and Deaths from Ebola, March–December 2014
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 039; 10.5089/9781498309561.002.A001
Guinea—Number of Cases and Deaths from Ebola, March–December 2014
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2015, 039; 10.5089/9781498309561.002.A001
In a recent report, the WFP and FAO estimate aggregate food crop production in 2014 has fallen by about 3 percent. Surveys suggest Ebola has aggravated an already precarious situation of chronic food insecurity, with 9 percent of the population estimated to be severely food insecure in December 2014. The number of food insecure persons is projected to increase to 1.2 million in March 2015, of which 470,000 are Ebola driven.
2. The political situation remains stable but fragile in the run-up to presidential elections scheduled for end-2015. Opposition parties are accusing the government of not abiding by agreements on the preparations for upcoming presidential and communal elections due in the second half of 2015. Challenges in logistical preparations, in part because of the Ebola outbreak, could further exacerbate political tensions, particularly if they were to cause the elections to be delayed into 2016. Political unrest, which had abated since the outbreak of the Ebola disease, flared up again in the first week of January 2015. Protests against the lack of basic services (electricity and water) continue, especially in the capital. On January 5, unions launched a general strike to support their demands to reduce fuel pump prices in line with international oil prices, and increase public wages by 300 percent (¶13, MEFP ¶20).
3. The immediate effect of the Ebola epidemic has been a pronounced economic slowdown in 2014. The economic impact of the Ebola outbreak is now expected to be more severe than anticipated at the time of the disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility 1 (Tables 1–4). Growth is estimated to have slowed to 0.4 percent2 (Figure 1) as economic activity was seriously hampered by border closures and controls, displacements of population and the related farm labor shortage, a sharp decline in international travel and a fall off in the number of visitors, and a slowdown in foreign investments. Available data indicate that most sectors were affected, especially agriculture, services (particularly in the hotel sector),3 transport and trade. By contrast, mining operations, which are in the northern part of the country, have remained steady, though facing higher transport and insurance costs. Inflation has continued to slow and was 9.0 percent y-o-y in December (Figure 2). Poverty is expected to have increased, especially amongst vulnerable groups who rely on the informal sector for employment, and casual workers in the service industry.
Guinea: Key Economic and Financial Indicators, 2013–17
Program as established at the time of the 4th ECF Review.
Program as established for the RCF purchase request.
In percent of the broad money stock at the beginning of the period.
In months of the following year’s imports excluding imports for large foreign-financed mining projects.
Guinea: Key Economic and Financial Indicators, 2013–17
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prog.1 | Prog.2 | Est. | Proj.2 | Prog. | |||||||
| National account and prices | |||||||||||
| GDP at constant prices | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 4.3 | −0.3 | 6.5 | 8.3 | |||
| GDP deflator | 6.3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 9.3 | |||
| GDP at market prices | 8.7 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 16.2 | 18.3 | |||
| Consumer prices (average) | |||||||||||
| Average | 11.9 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 9.4 | |||
| End of period | 10.5 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.2 | |||
| External sector | |||||||||||
| Exports, f.o.b. (US$ terms) | −5.4 | −2.2 | −6.5 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 9.3 | |||
| Imports, f.o.b. (US$ terms) | −6.7 | −4.6 | −1.9 | −4.9 | 14.5 | −2.2 | 20.6 | 38.2 | |||
| Average effective exchange rate (depreciation -) | |||||||||||
| Nominal index | 3.1 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Real index | 12.7 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Money and credit | |||||||||||
| Net foreign assets 3 | −0.3 | −4.9 | −8.8 | −1.6 | 8.1 | −9.9 | … | … | |||
| Net domestic assets3 | 14.4 | 15.7 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 0.9 | 21.5 | … | … | |||
| Net claims on government 3 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 9.4 | … | … | |||
| Credit to non-government sector 3 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 12.7 | … | … | |||
| Reserve money | 15.7 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 12.0 | −9.8 | … | … | |||
| Broad money (M2) | 14.1 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 13.1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | … | … | |||
| Interest rate (short term T-bill) | 10.9 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| (Percent of GDP) | |||||||||||
| Central government finances | |||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 19.8 | 24.9 | 23.9 | 25.7 | 21.3 | 23.4 | 23.2 | 23.3 | |||
| Revenue | 18.4 | 19.3 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 20.7 | 20.4 | 20.5 | |||
| Of which: Non-mining revenue | 14.9 | 15.3 | 14.6 | 14.8 | 16.1 | 17.9 | 17.7 | 17.6 | |||
| Grants | 1.5 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | |||
| Total expenditure and net lending | 25.1 | 28.9 | 29.8 | 30.1 | 24.0 | 33.6 | 27.2 | 26.2 | |||
| Current expenditure | 16.2 | 15.6 | 17.2 | 18.1 | 16.6 | 20.5 | 17.4 | 17.0 | |||
| Of which: Interest payments | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | |||
| Capital expenditure and net lending | 8.9 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 12.6 | 9.8 | 9.2 | |||
| Overall budget balance | |||||||||||
| Including grants | −5.2 | −4.0 | −5.9 | −4.3 | −2.7 | −10.1 | −4.1 | −2.9 | |||
| Excluding grants | −6.7 | −9.6 | −11.2 | −11.4 | −4.7 | −12.9 | −6.8 | −5.7 | |||
| Basic fiscal balance | −2.8 | −4.0 | −5.5 | −5.7 | −2.3 | −6.6 | −1.9 | −1.3 | |||
| National accounts | |||||||||||
| Gross capital formation | 21.0 | 15.4 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 18.9 | 10.3 | 26.6 | 37.7 | |||
| Savings | −0.1 | −1.6 | −4.7 | −8.8 | 0.8 | −6.5 | 8.3 | 10.3 | |||
| Current account balance | |||||||||||
| Including official transfers | −21.1 | −16.9 | −18.1 | −18.2 | −18.0 | −16.7 | −18.3 | −27.4 | |||
| Excluding official transfers | −21.5 | −18.8 | −19.7 | −19.7 | −19.2 | −18.1 | −19.7 | −28.7 | |||
| Overall balance of payments | 0.5 | −0.3 | −1.7 | −0.2 | 1.6 | −6.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | |||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||
| Exports, goods and services (US$ millions) | 1,541.1 | 1,532.1 | 1,468.1 | 1,550.0 | 1,537.4 | 1,651.2 | 1,761.7 | 1,920.4 | |||
| Imports, goods and services (US$ millions) | 2,705.1 | 2,660.9 | 2,701.7 | 2,677.1 | 2,953.6 | 2,648.5 | 3,193.9 | 4,286.9 | |||
| Overall balance of payments (US$ millions) | 29.0 | −19.6 | −117.8 | −14.0 | 122.1 | −475.3 | 212.9 | 111.0 | |||
| Net foreign assets of the central bank (US$ millions) | 448.9 | 403.9 | 358.9 | 416.0 | 495.9 | 201.9 | 202.4 | 204.3 | |||
| Gross available reserves (months of imports) 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 | |||
| External public debt, incl. IMF (percent of GDP) | 25.3 | … | … | 28.7 | … | 32.9 | 34.6 | 34.5 | |||
| Total public debt, incl. IMF (percent of GDP) | 39.1 | … | … | 42.5 | … | 47.9 | 47.1 | 44.9 | |||
| Nominal GDP (GNF billions) | 43,048.2 | 47,669.0 | 47,387.7 | 46,462.8 | 52,187.1 | 50,084.4 | 58,202.6 | 68,846.2 | |||
Program as established at the time of the 4th ECF Review.
Program as established for the RCF purchase request.
In percent of the broad money stock at the beginning of the period.
In months of the following year’s imports excluding imports for large foreign-financed mining projects.
Guinea: Key Economic and Financial Indicators, 2013–17
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prog.1 | Prog.2 | Est. | Proj.2 | Prog. | |||||||
| National account and prices | |||||||||||
| GDP at constant prices | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 4.3 | −0.3 | 6.5 | 8.3 | |||
| GDP deflator | 6.3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 9.3 | |||
| GDP at market prices | 8.7 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 16.2 | 18.3 | |||
| Consumer prices (average) | |||||||||||
| Average | 11.9 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 9.4 | |||
| End of period | 10.5 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.2 | |||
| External sector | |||||||||||
| Exports, f.o.b. (US$ terms) | −5.4 | −2.2 | −6.5 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 9.3 | |||
| Imports, f.o.b. (US$ terms) | −6.7 | −4.6 | −1.9 | −4.9 | 14.5 | −2.2 | 20.6 | 38.2 | |||
| Average effective exchange rate (depreciation -) | |||||||||||
| Nominal index | 3.1 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Real index | 12.7 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Money and credit | |||||||||||
| Net foreign assets 3 | −0.3 | −4.9 | −8.8 | −1.6 | 8.1 | −9.9 | … | … | |||
| Net domestic assets3 | 14.4 | 15.7 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 0.9 | 21.5 | … | … | |||
| Net claims on government 3 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 9.4 | … | … | |||
| Credit to non-government sector 3 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 12.7 | … | … | |||
| Reserve money | 15.7 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 12.0 | −9.8 | … | … | |||
| Broad money (M2) | 14.1 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 13.1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | … | … | |||
| Interest rate (short term T-bill) | 10.9 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| (Percent of GDP) | |||||||||||
| Central government finances | |||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 19.8 | 24.9 | 23.9 | 25.7 | 21.3 | 23.4 | 23.2 | 23.3 | |||
| Revenue | 18.4 | 19.3 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 20.7 | 20.4 | 20.5 | |||
| Of which: Non-mining revenue | 14.9 | 15.3 | 14.6 | 14.8 | 16.1 | 17.9 | 17.7 | 17.6 | |||
| Grants | 1.5 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | |||
| Total expenditure and net lending | 25.1 | 28.9 | 29.8 | 30.1 | 24.0 | 33.6 | 27.2 | 26.2 | |||
| Current expenditure | 16.2 | 15.6 | 17.2 | 18.1 | 16.6 | 20.5 | 17.4 | 17.0 | |||
| Of which: Interest payments | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | |||
| Capital expenditure and net lending | 8.9 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 12.6 | 9.8 | 9.2 | |||
| Overall budget balance | |||||||||||
| Including grants | −5.2 | −4.0 | −5.9 | −4.3 | −2.7 | −10.1 | −4.1 | −2.9 | |||
| Excluding grants | −6.7 | −9.6 | −11.2 | −11.4 | −4.7 | −12.9 | −6.8 | −5.7 | |||
| Basic fiscal balance | −2.8 | −4.0 | −5.5 | −5.7 | −2.3 | −6.6 | −1.9 | −1.3 | |||
| National accounts | |||||||||||
| Gross capital formation | 21.0 | 15.4 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 18.9 | 10.3 | 26.6 | 37.7 | |||
| Savings | −0.1 | −1.6 | −4.7 | −8.8 | 0.8 | −6.5 | 8.3 | 10.3 | |||
| Current account balance | |||||||||||
| Including official transfers | −21.1 | −16.9 | −18.1 | −18.2 | −18.0 | −16.7 | −18.3 | −27.4 | |||
| Excluding official transfers | −21.5 | −18.8 | −19.7 | −19.7 | −19.2 | −18.1 | −19.7 | −28.7 | |||
| Overall balance of payments | 0.5 | −0.3 | −1.7 | −0.2 | 1.6 | −6.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | |||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||
| Exports, goods and services (US$ millions) | 1,541.1 | 1,532.1 | 1,468.1 | 1,550.0 | 1,537.4 | 1,651.2 | 1,761.7 | 1,920.4 | |||
| Imports, goods and services (US$ millions) | 2,705.1 | 2,660.9 | 2,701.7 | 2,677.1 | 2,953.6 | 2,648.5 | 3,193.9 | 4,286.9 | |||
| Overall balance of payments (US$ millions) | 29.0 | −19.6 | −117.8 | −14.0 | 122.1 | −475.3 | 212.9 | 111.0 | |||
| Net foreign assets of the central bank (US$ millions) | 448.9 | 403.9 | 358.9 | 416.0 | 495.9 | 201.9 | 202.4 | 204.3 | |||
| Gross available reserves (months of imports) 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 | |||
| External public debt, incl. IMF (percent of GDP) | 25.3 | … | … | 28.7 | … | 32.9 | 34.6 | 34.5 | |||
| Total public debt, incl. IMF (percent of GDP) | 39.1 | … | … | 42.5 | … | 47.9 | 47.1 | 44.9 | |||
| Nominal GDP (GNF billions) | 43,048.2 | 47,669.0 | 47,387.7 | 46,462.8 | 52,187.1 | 50,084.4 | 58,202.6 | 68,846.2 | |||
Program as established at the time of the 4th ECF Review.
Program as established for the RCF purchase request.
In percent of the broad money stock at the beginning of the period.
In months of the following year’s imports excluding imports for large foreign-financed mining projects.
Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2013–171
(Billions of Guinean Francs; unless otherwise indicated)
Based on GFSM 1986 due to data availability limitations.
Program as established at the time of the 4th ECF Review.
Program as established for the RCF purchase request.
Revenue minus expenditure excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.
For 2014 and 2015 (projected), debt relief is on outstanding loans fully in arrears owed to non-Paris club official and commercial creditors.
Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2013–171
(Billions of Guinean Francs; unless otherwise indicated)
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | Proj.3 | Prog. | |||||||||||
| Prog.2 | Act. | Prog.3 | Prel. | Prog.3 | Est. | ||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 8,544 | 5,337 | 4,912 | 8,117 | 7,131 | 11,328 | 11,951 | 11,103 | 11,729 | 13,484 | 16,022 | ||||
| Revenue | 7,905 | 4,419 | 4,343 | 6,633 | 6,501 | 8,843 | 8,683 | 10,031 | 10,356 | 11,889 | 14,136 | ||||
| Mining sector | 1,489 | 616 | 686 | 1,121 | 1,029 | 1,451 | 1,326 | 1,408 | 1,392 | 1,596 | 1,998 | ||||
| Non-mining sector | 6,130 | 3,669 | 3,473 | 5,201 | 5,107 | 6,931 | 6,899 | 8,377 | 8,578 | 9,844 | 11,606 | ||||
| Direct taxes | 1,484 | 920 | 797 | 1,115 | 1,129 | 1,530 | 1,495 | 1,707 | 1,608 | 1,869 | 2,311 | ||||
| Indirect taxes | 4,646 | 2,749 | 2,676 | 4,086 | 3,978 | 5,401 | 5,404 | 6,670 | 6,970 | 7,975 | 9,296 | ||||
| Taxes on goods and services | 2,943 | 1,771 | 1,671 | 2,547 | 2,474 | 3,468 | 3,444 | 3,776 | 4,715 | 5,355 | 6,196 | ||||
| Taxes on international trade | 1,703 | 978 | 1,005 | 1,539 | 1,504 | 1,932 | 1,960 | 2,893 | 2,255 | 2,620 | 3,099 | ||||
| Non-tax revenue | 286 | 134 | 185 | 311 | 365 | 461 | 458 | 247 | 386 | 449 | 531 | ||||
| Grants | 639 | 918 | 569 | 1,484 | 630 | 2,485 | 3,268 | 1,072 | 1,372 | 1,595 | 1,887 | ||||
| Project grants | 462 | 773 | 200 | 890 | 261 | 1,765 | 1,765 | 482 | 705 | 819 | 969 | ||||
| Budget support | 177 | 145 | 369 | 594 | 369 | 720 | 710 | 590 | 668 | 776 | 918 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | … | 0 | 0 | … | 792 | … | 0 | … | … | ||||
| Expenditures and net lending | 10,785 | 6,277 | 5,048 | 9,687 | 8,191 | 14,132 | 13,971 | 12,505 | 16,808 | 15,850 | 18,036 | ||||
| Current expenditures | 6,954 | 3,230 | 3,269 | 5,635 | 5,313 | 8,168 | 8,420 | 8,680 | 10,287 | 10,124 | 11,709 | ||||
| Primary current expenditures | 6,461 | 2,998 | 3,038 | 5,250 | 4,900 | 7,630 | 7,894 | 8,112 | 9,744 | 9,332 | 10,887 | ||||
| Wages and salaries | 2,102 | 1,086 | 1,136 | 1,751 | 1,734 | 2,355 | 2,356 | 2,890 | 2,947 | 3,616 | 4,277 | ||||
| Goods and services | 2,499 | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,879 | 1,725 | 2,599 | 2,689 | 3,122 | 3,126 | 3,376 | 3,993 | ||||
| Subsides and transfers | 1,860 | 908 | 888 | 1,620 | 1,387 | 2,081 | 2,021 | 2,100 | 2,056 | 2,340 | 2,616 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | 12 | 215 | 54 | 595 | 827 | 104 | 1,613 | … | … | ||||
| Interest on debt | 493 | 232 | 230 | 385 | 413 | 538 | 526 | 568 | 543 | 792 | 823 | ||||
| Domestic debt | 421 | 178 | 185 | 291 | 334 | 434 | 434 | 415 | 415 | 539 | 549 | ||||
| External debt | 72 | 54 | 46 | 94 | 79 | 104 | 93 | 153 | 128 | 253 | 274 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 3,822 | 2,842 | 1,745 | 3,958 | 2,803 | 5,800 | 5,445 | 3,509 | 6,327 | 5,683 | 6,311 | ||||
| Domestically financed | 2,184 | 1,663 | 1,334 | 2,560 | 2,118 | 3,213 | 2,861 | 2,287 | 3,280 | 3,027 | 3,580 | ||||
| Capital transfers | 17 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 20 | 30 | 27 | 105 | 48 | 56 | 0 | ||||
| Externally financed | 1,620 | 1,169 | 399 | 1,386 | 664 | 2,557 | 2,558 | 1,117 | 3,000 | 2,601 | 2,731 | ||||
| Net lending & restructuring expenditure | 9 | 205 | 34 | 94 | 76 | 164 | 106 | 317 | 194 | 43 | 15 | ||||
| Basic fiscal balance 4 | −1,188 | −635 | −260 | −1,574 | −947 | −2,628 | −2,638 | −1,204 | −3,324 | −1,108 | −895 | ||||
| Percent of GDP | −2.8 | −1.5 | −0.6 | −3.7 | −2.0 | −5.5 | −5.7 | −2.3 | −6.6 | −1.9 | −1.3 | ||||
| Overall balance | |||||||||||||||
| Excluding grants | −2,880 | −1,858 | −704 | −3,054 | −1,690 | −5,289 | −5,288 | −2,474 | −6,452 | −3,961 | −3,900 | ||||
| Including grants | −2,241 | −940 | −136 | −1,570 | −1,060 | −2,804 | −2,020 | −1,402 | −5,079 | −2,366 | −2,014 | ||||
| Financing | 2,241 | 940 | 122 | 1,395 | 1,006 | 1,902 | 2,020 | 1,402 | 3,435 | 1,375 | 1,356 | ||||
| Domestic financing | 1,042 | 704 | 112 | 1,163 | 821 | 1,318 | 596 | 1,280 | 1,536 | −185 | −141 | ||||
| Bank financing | 1,011 | 879 | 43 | 1,077 | 652 | 1,162 | 768 | 0 | 1,394 | −75 | −75 | ||||
| Central bank | 901 | 879 | −28 | 890 | 650 | 1,162 | 768 | 0 | 394 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Commercial banks | 110 | 0 | 71 | 187 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,000 | −75 | −75 | ||||
| Nonbank financing | 209 | −175 | 69 | 86 | 169 | 156 | −173 | 1,280 | 142 | −110 | −66 | ||||
| Borrowing/Amortization of domestic debt (net) | 200 | −103 | 0 | −158 | −64 | −284 | −285 | −285 | −285 | −130 | −90 | ||||
| Change in arrears | 0 | −72 | 36 | 240 | 206 | 5 | 106 | −200 | −150 | 776 | 918 | ||||
| Exceptional revenue | 0 | 0 | … | … | … | 435 | 0 | 1,750 | 560 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Other | 9 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 24 | ||||
| External financing (net) | 1,200 | 235 | 10 | 232 | 185 | 584 | 1,425 | 122 | 1,899 | 1,560 | 1,497 | ||||
| Drawings | 1,509 | 533 | 198 | 495 | 403 | 1,065 | 1,791 | 635 | 2,295 | 2,073 | 2,107 | ||||
| Project | 1,268 | 396 | 198 | 495 | 403 | 792 | 792 | 635 | 2,295 | 1,782 | 1,762 | ||||
| Program | 242 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 999 | 0 | 0 | 291 | 344 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | … | … | … | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | … | ||||
| Amortization due | −341 | −298 | −212 | −289 | −250 | −492 | −421 | −513 | −396 | −513 | −610 | ||||
| Debt relief 5 | 6 | 720 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 889 | 4 | 214 | 1,079 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Change in arrears (- = reduction) 5 | 26 | −720 | 24 | −31 | 32 | −878 | 50 | −214 | −1,079 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Financing gap | 0 | 0 | 13 | 175 | 54 | 902 | 0 | 0 | 1,644 | 991 | 658 | ||||
| Possible financing (incl. debt relief) | 1,644 | 991 | 658 | ||||||||||||
| IMF | 288 | ||||||||||||||
| Ebola-related donor pledges | 1,357 | ||||||||||||||
| Other/Adjustment measures | … | 991 | 658 | ||||||||||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP | 43,048 | 43,048 | 46,463 | 43,048 | 46,463 | 47,388 | 46,463 | 52,187 | 50,084 | 58,203 | 68,846 | ||||
Based on GFSM 1986 due to data availability limitations.
Program as established at the time of the 4th ECF Review.
Program as established for the RCF purchase request.
Revenue minus expenditure excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.
For 2014 and 2015 (projected), debt relief is on outstanding loans fully in arrears owed to non-Paris club official and commercial creditors.
Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2013–171
(Billions of Guinean Francs; unless otherwise indicated)
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | Proj.3 | Prog. | |||||||||||
| Prog.2 | Act. | Prog.3 | Prel. | Prog.3 | Est. | ||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 8,544 | 5,337 | 4,912 | 8,117 | 7,131 | 11,328 | 11,951 | 11,103 | 11,729 | 13,484 | 16,022 | ||||
| Revenue | 7,905 | 4,419 | 4,343 | 6,633 | 6,501 | 8,843 | 8,683 | 10,031 | 10,356 | 11,889 | 14,136 | ||||
| Mining sector | 1,489 | 616 | 686 | 1,121 | 1,029 | 1,451 | 1,326 | 1,408 | 1,392 | 1,596 | 1,998 | ||||
| Non-mining sector | 6,130 | 3,669 | 3,473 | 5,201 | 5,107 | 6,931 | 6,899 | 8,377 | 8,578 | 9,844 | 11,606 | ||||
| Direct taxes | 1,484 | 920 | 797 | 1,115 | 1,129 | 1,530 | 1,495 | 1,707 | 1,608 | 1,869 | 2,311 | ||||
| Indirect taxes | 4,646 | 2,749 | 2,676 | 4,086 | 3,978 | 5,401 | 5,404 | 6,670 | 6,970 | 7,975 | 9,296 | ||||
| Taxes on goods and services | 2,943 | 1,771 | 1,671 | 2,547 | 2,474 | 3,468 | 3,444 | 3,776 | 4,715 | 5,355 | 6,196 | ||||
| Taxes on international trade | 1,703 | 978 | 1,005 | 1,539 | 1,504 | 1,932 | 1,960 | 2,893 | 2,255 | 2,620 | 3,099 | ||||
| Non-tax revenue | 286 | 134 | 185 | 311 | 365 | 461 | 458 | 247 | 386 | 449 | 531 | ||||
| Grants | 639 | 918 | 569 | 1,484 | 630 | 2,485 | 3,268 | 1,072 | 1,372 | 1,595 | 1,887 | ||||
| Project grants | 462 | 773 | 200 | 890 | 261 | 1,765 | 1,765 | 482 | 705 | 819 | 969 | ||||
| Budget support | 177 | 145 | 369 | 594 | 369 | 720 | 710 | 590 | 668 | 776 | 918 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | … | 0 | 0 | … | 792 | … | 0 | … | … | ||||
| Expenditures and net lending | 10,785 | 6,277 | 5,048 | 9,687 | 8,191 | 14,132 | 13,971 | 12,505 | 16,808 | 15,850 | 18,036 | ||||
| Current expenditures | 6,954 | 3,230 | 3,269 | 5,635 | 5,313 | 8,168 | 8,420 | 8,680 | 10,287 | 10,124 | 11,709 | ||||
| Primary current expenditures | 6,461 | 2,998 | 3,038 | 5,250 | 4,900 | 7,630 | 7,894 | 8,112 | 9,744 | 9,332 | 10,887 | ||||
| Wages and salaries | 2,102 | 1,086 | 1,136 | 1,751 | 1,734 | 2,355 | 2,356 | 2,890 | 2,947 | 3,616 | 4,277 | ||||
| Goods and services | 2,499 | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,879 | 1,725 | 2,599 | 2,689 | 3,122 | 3,126 | 3,376 | 3,993 | ||||
| Subsides and transfers | 1,860 | 908 | 888 | 1,620 | 1,387 | 2,081 | 2,021 | 2,100 | 2,056 | 2,340 | 2,616 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | 12 | 215 | 54 | 595 | 827 | 104 | 1,613 | … | … | ||||
| Interest on debt | 493 | 232 | 230 | 385 | 413 | 538 | 526 | 568 | 543 | 792 | 823 | ||||
| Domestic debt | 421 | 178 | 185 | 291 | 334 | 434 | 434 | 415 | 415 | 539 | 549 | ||||
| External debt | 72 | 54 | 46 | 94 | 79 | 104 | 93 | 153 | 128 | 253 | 274 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 3,822 | 2,842 | 1,745 | 3,958 | 2,803 | 5,800 | 5,445 | 3,509 | 6,327 | 5,683 | 6,311 | ||||
| Domestically financed | 2,184 | 1,663 | 1,334 | 2,560 | 2,118 | 3,213 | 2,861 | 2,287 | 3,280 | 3,027 | 3,580 | ||||
| Capital transfers | 17 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 20 | 30 | 27 | 105 | 48 | 56 | 0 | ||||
| Externally financed | 1,620 | 1,169 | 399 | 1,386 | 664 | 2,557 | 2,558 | 1,117 | 3,000 | 2,601 | 2,731 | ||||
| Net lending & restructuring expenditure | 9 | 205 | 34 | 94 | 76 | 164 | 106 | 317 | 194 | 43 | 15 | ||||
| Basic fiscal balance 4 | −1,188 | −635 | −260 | −1,574 | −947 | −2,628 | −2,638 | −1,204 | −3,324 | −1,108 | −895 | ||||
| Percent of GDP | −2.8 | −1.5 | −0.6 | −3.7 | −2.0 | −5.5 | −5.7 | −2.3 | −6.6 | −1.9 | −1.3 | ||||
| Overall balance | |||||||||||||||
| Excluding grants | −2,880 | −1,858 | −704 | −3,054 | −1,690 | −5,289 | −5,288 | −2,474 | −6,452 | −3,961 | −3,900 | ||||
| Including grants | −2,241 | −940 | −136 | −1,570 | −1,060 | −2,804 | −2,020 | −1,402 | −5,079 | −2,366 | −2,014 | ||||
| Financing | 2,241 | 940 | 122 | 1,395 | 1,006 | 1,902 | 2,020 | 1,402 | 3,435 | 1,375 | 1,356 | ||||
| Domestic financing | 1,042 | 704 | 112 | 1,163 | 821 | 1,318 | 596 | 1,280 | 1,536 | −185 | −141 | ||||
| Bank financing | 1,011 | 879 | 43 | 1,077 | 652 | 1,162 | 768 | 0 | 1,394 | −75 | −75 | ||||
| Central bank | 901 | 879 | −28 | 890 | 650 | 1,162 | 768 | 0 | 394 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Commercial banks | 110 | 0 | 71 | 187 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,000 | −75 | −75 | ||||
| Nonbank financing | 209 | −175 | 69 | 86 | 169 | 156 | −173 | 1,280 | 142 | −110 | −66 | ||||
| Borrowing/Amortization of domestic debt (net) | 200 | −103 | 0 | −158 | −64 | −284 | −285 | −285 | −285 | −130 | −90 | ||||
| Change in arrears | 0 | −72 | 36 | 240 | 206 | 5 | 106 | −200 | −150 | 776 | 918 | ||||
| Exceptional revenue | 0 | 0 | … | … | … | 435 | 0 | 1,750 | 560 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Other | 9 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 24 | ||||
| External financing (net) | 1,200 | 235 | 10 | 232 | 185 | 584 | 1,425 | 122 | 1,899 | 1,560 | 1,497 | ||||
| Drawings | 1,509 | 533 | 198 | 495 | 403 | 1,065 | 1,791 | 635 | 2,295 | 2,073 | 2,107 | ||||
| Project | 1,268 | 396 | 198 | 495 | 403 | 792 | 792 | 635 | 2,295 | 1,782 | 1,762 | ||||
| Program | 242 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 999 | 0 | 0 | 291 | 344 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | … | … | … | … | 0 | … | 0 | … | … | ||||
| Amortization due | −341 | −298 | −212 | −289 | −250 | −492 | −421 | −513 | −396 | −513 | −610 | ||||
| Debt relief 5 | 6 | 720 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 889 | 4 | 214 | 1,079 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Change in arrears (- = reduction) 5 | 26 | −720 | 24 | −31 | 32 | −878 | 50 | −214 | −1,079 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Financing gap | 0 | 0 | 13 | 175 | 54 | 902 | 0 | 0 | 1,644 | 991 | 658 | ||||
| Possible financing (incl. debt relief) | 1,644 | 991 | 658 | ||||||||||||
| IMF | 288 | ||||||||||||||
| Ebola-related donor pledges | 1,357 | ||||||||||||||
| Other/Adjustment measures | … | 991 | 658 | ||||||||||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP | 43,048 | 43,048 | 46,463 | 43,048 | 46,463 | 47,388 | 46,463 | 52,187 | 50,084 | 58,203 | 68,846 | ||||
Based on GFSM 1986 due to data availability limitations.
Program as established at the time of the 4th ECF Review.
Program as established for the RCF purchase request.
Revenue minus expenditure excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.
For 2014 and 2015 (projected), debt relief is on outstanding loans fully in arrears owed to non-Paris club official and commercial creditors.
Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2013–171
(Percent of GDP; unless otherwise indicated)
Based on GFSM 1986 due to data availability limitations.
Program as established at the time of the 4th ECF Review.
Program as established for the RCF purchase request.
Revenue minus expenditure excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.
For 2014 and 2015 (projected), debt relief is on outstanding loans fully in arrears owed to non-Paris club official and commercial creditors.
Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2013–171
(Percent of GDP; unless otherwise indicated)
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | Proj.3 | Prog. | |||||||||||
| Prog.2 | Act. | Prog.3 | Prel. | Prog.3 | Est. | ||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 19.8 | 12.4 | 10.6 | 18.9 | 15.3 | 23.9 | 25.7 | 21.3 | 23.4 | 23.2 | 23.3 | ||||
| Revenue | 18.4 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 15.4 | 14.0 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 20.7 | 20.4 | 20.5 | ||||
| Mining sector | 3.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | ||||
| Non-mining sector | 14.2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 14.6 | 14.8 | 16.1 | 17.1 | 16.9 | 16.9 | ||||
| Direct taxes | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | ||||
| Indirect taxes | 10.8 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 13.9 | 13.7 | 13.5 | ||||
| Taxes on goods and services | 6.8 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.0 | ||||
| Taxes on international trade | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | ||||
| Non-tax revenue | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||
| Grants | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | ||||
| Project grants | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | ||||
| Budget support | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | … | 0.0 | 0.0 | … | 1.7 | … | 0.0 | … | … | ||||
| Expenditures and net lending | 25.1 | 14.6 | 10.9 | 22.5 | 17.6 | 29.8 | 30.1 | 24.0 | 33.6 | 27.2 | 26.2 | ||||
| Current expenditures | 16.2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 13.1 | 11.4 | 17.2 | 18.1 | 16.6 | 20.5 | 17.4 | 17.0 | ||||
| Primary current expenditures | 15.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 12.2 | 10.5 | 16.1 | 17.0 | 15.5 | 19.5 | 16.0 | 15.8 | ||||
| Wages and salaries | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.2 | ||||
| Goods and services | 5.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | ||||
| Subsides and transfers | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 3.2 | … | … | ||||
| Interest on debt | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | ||||
| Domestic debt | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | ||||
| External debt | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 12.6 | 9.8 | 9.2 | ||||
| Domestically financed | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 | ||||
| Capital transfers | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Externally financed | 3.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | ||||
| Net lending & restructuring expenditure | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Basic fiscal balance 4 | −2.8 | −1.5 | −0.6 | −3.7 | −2.0 | −5.5 | −5.7 | −2.3 | −6.6 | −1.9 | −1.3 | ||||
| Overall balance | |||||||||||||||
| Excluding grants | −6.7 | −4.3 | −1.5 | −7.1 | −3.6 | −11.2 | −11.4 | −4.7 | −12.9 | −6.8 | −5.7 | ||||
| Including grants | −5.2 | −2.2 | −0.3 | −3.6 | −2.3 | −5.9 | −4.3 | −2.7 | −10.1 | −4.1 | −2.9 | ||||
| Financing | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | ||||
| Domestic financing | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 | ||||
| Bank financing | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.8 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ||||
| Central bank | 2.1 | 2.0 | −0.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Commercial banks | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ||||
| Nonbank financing | 0.5 | −0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | −0.4 | 2.5 | 0.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ||||
| Borrowing/Amortization of domestic debt (net) | 0.5 | −0.2 | 0.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ||||
| Change in arrears | 0.0 | −0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | −0.4 | −0.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | ||||
| Exceptional revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | … | … | … | 0.9 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Other | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| External financing (net) | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | ||||
| Drawings | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.1 | ||||
| Project | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | ||||
| Program | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | … | … | … | … | 0.0 | … | 0.0 | … | … | ||||
| Amortization due | −0.8 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −1.0 | −0.9 | −1.0 | −0.8 | −0.9 | −0.9 | ||||
| Debt relief 5 | … | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Change in arrears (- = reduction) 5 | 0.1 | −1.7 | 0.1 | −0.1 | 0.1 | −1.9 | 0.1 | −0.4 | −2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Financing gap | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | ||||
| Possible financing (incl. debt relief) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | ||||
| IMF | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 0.6 | … | … | ||||
| Ebola-related donor pledges | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 2.7 | … | … | ||||
| Other/Adjustment measures | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 1.7 | 1.0 | ||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP | 43,048 | 43,048 | 46,463 | 43,048 | 46,463 | 47,388 | 46,463 | 52,187 | 50,084 | 58,203 | 68,846 | ||||
Based on GFSM 1986 due to data availability limitations.
Program as established at the time of the 4th ECF Review.
Program as established for the RCF purchase request.
Revenue minus expenditure excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.
For 2014 and 2015 (projected), debt relief is on outstanding loans fully in arrears owed to non-Paris club official and commercial creditors.
Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2013–171
(Percent of GDP; unless otherwise indicated)
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | Proj.3 | Prog. | |||||||||||
| Prog.2 | Act. | Prog.3 | Prel. | Prog.3 | Est. | ||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 19.8 | 12.4 | 10.6 | 18.9 | 15.3 | 23.9 | 25.7 | 21.3 | 23.4 | 23.2 | 23.3 | ||||
| Revenue | 18.4 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 15.4 | 14.0 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 20.7 | 20.4 | 20.5 | ||||
| Mining sector | 3.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | ||||
| Non-mining sector | 14.2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 14.6 | 14.8 | 16.1 | 17.1 | 16.9 | 16.9 | ||||
| Direct taxes | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | ||||
| Indirect taxes | 10.8 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 13.9 | 13.7 | 13.5 | ||||
| Taxes on goods and services | 6.8 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.0 | ||||
| Taxes on international trade | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | ||||
| Non-tax revenue | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||
| Grants | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | ||||
| Project grants | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | ||||
| Budget support | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | … | 0.0 | 0.0 | … | 1.7 | … | 0.0 | … | … | ||||
| Expenditures and net lending | 25.1 | 14.6 | 10.9 | 22.5 | 17.6 | 29.8 | 30.1 | 24.0 | 33.6 | 27.2 | 26.2 | ||||
| Current expenditures | 16.2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 13.1 | 11.4 | 17.2 | 18.1 | 16.6 | 20.5 | 17.4 | 17.0 | ||||
| Primary current expenditures | 15.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 12.2 | 10.5 | 16.1 | 17.0 | 15.5 | 19.5 | 16.0 | 15.8 | ||||
| Wages and salaries | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.2 | ||||
| Goods and services | 5.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | ||||
| Subsides and transfers | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 3.2 | … | … | ||||
| Interest on debt | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | ||||
| Domestic debt | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | ||||
| External debt | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 12.6 | 9.8 | 9.2 | ||||
| Domestically financed | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 | ||||
| Capital transfers | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Externally financed | 3.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | ||||
| Net lending & restructuring expenditure | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Basic fiscal balance 4 | −2.8 | −1.5 | −0.6 | −3.7 | −2.0 | −5.5 | −5.7 | −2.3 | −6.6 | −1.9 | −1.3 | ||||
| Overall balance | |||||||||||||||
| Excluding grants | −6.7 | −4.3 | −1.5 | −7.1 | −3.6 | −11.2 | −11.4 | −4.7 | −12.9 | −6.8 | −5.7 | ||||
| Including grants | −5.2 | −2.2 | −0.3 | −3.6 | −2.3 | −5.9 | −4.3 | −2.7 | −10.1 | −4.1 | −2.9 | ||||
| Financing | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | ||||
| Domestic financing | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 | ||||
| Bank financing | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.8 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ||||
| Central bank | 2.1 | 2.0 | −0.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Commercial banks | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ||||
| Nonbank financing | 0.5 | −0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | −0.4 | 2.5 | 0.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ||||
| Borrowing/Amortization of domestic debt (net) | 0.5 | −0.2 | 0.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ||||
| Change in arrears | 0.0 | −0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | −0.4 | −0.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | ||||
| Exceptional revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | … | … | … | 0.9 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Other | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| External financing (net) | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | ||||
| Drawings | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.1 | ||||
| Project | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | ||||
| Program | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | … | … | … | … | 0.0 | … | 0.0 | … | … | ||||
| Amortization due | −0.8 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −1.0 | −0.9 | −1.0 | −0.8 | −0.9 | −0.9 | ||||
| Debt relief 5 | … | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Change in arrears (- = reduction) 5 | 0.1 | −1.7 | 0.1 | −0.1 | 0.1 | −1.9 | 0.1 | −0.4 | −2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Financing gap | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | ||||
| Possible financing (incl. debt relief) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | ||||
| IMF | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 0.6 | … | … | ||||
| Ebola-related donor pledges | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 2.7 | … | … | ||||
| Other/Adjustment measures | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 1.7 | 1.0 | ||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP | 43,048 | 43,048 | 46,463 | 43,048 | 46,463 | 47,388 | 46,463 | 52,187 | 50,084 | 58,203 | 68,846 | ||||
Based on GFSM 1986 due to data availability limitations.
Program as established at the time of the 4th ECF Review.
Program as established for the RCF purchase request.
Revenue minus expenditure excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.
For 2014 and 2015 (projected), debt relief is on outstanding loans fully in arrears owed to non-Paris club official and commercial creditors.
Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2013–151
(Billions of Guinean Francs; unless otherwise indicated)
Based on GFSM 1986 due to data availability limitations.
Program as established at the time of the 4th ECF Review.
Revenue minus expenditure excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.
For 2014 (program) and 2015 (projected), debt relief is on outstanding loans fully in arrears owed to non-Paris club official and commercial creditors.
Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2013–151
(Billions of Guinean Francs; unless otherwise indicated)
| 2014 | 2015 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Mar. | Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | Mar. | Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | ||||||
| Prog.2 | Act. | Act. | Prel. | Est. | Prog. | |||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 8,544 | 2,395 | 2,004 | 4,912 | 7,131 | 11,951 | 2,630 | 5,946 | 8,827 | 11,729 | ||||
| Revenue | 7,905 | 2,095 | 1,903 | 4,343 | 6,501 | 8,683 | 2,151 | 4,969 | 7,706 | 10,356 | ||||
| Mining sector | 1,489 | 291 | 285 | 686 | 1,029 | 1,326 | 282 | 676 | 1,031 | 1,392 | ||||
| Non-mining sector | 6,130 | 1,718 | 1,536 | 3,473 | 5,107 | 6,899 | 1,811 | 4,144 | 6,382 | 8,578 | ||||
| Direct taxes | 1,484 | 328 | 251 | 797 | 1,129 | 1,495 | 290 | 849 | 1,269 | 1,608 | ||||
| Indirect taxes | 4,646 | 1,390 | 1,286 | 2,676 | 3,978 | 5,404 | 1,520 | 3,295 | 5,113 | 6,970 | ||||
| Taxes on goods and services | 2,943 | 866 | 810 | 1,671 | 2,474 | 3,444 | 1,072 | 2,267 | 3,492 | 4,715 | ||||
| Taxes on international trade | 1,703 | 524 | 475 | 1,005 | 1,504 | 1,960 | 448 | 1,028 | 1,621 | 2,255 | ||||
| Non-tax revenue | 286 | 86 | 81 | 185 | 365 | 458 | 58 | 149 | 293 | 386 | ||||
| Grants | 639 | 300 | 102 | 569 | 630 | 3,268 | 479 | 976 | 1,121 | 1,372 | ||||
| Project grants | 462 | 300 | 102 | 200 | 261 | 1,765 | 182 | 309 | 453 | 705 | ||||
| Budget support | 177 | 0 | 0 | 369 | 369 | 710 | 298 | 668 | 668 | 668 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | … | … | 0 | 792 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Expenditures and net lending | 10,785 | 2,936 | 2,157 | 5,048 | 8,191 | 13,971 | 3,683 | 7,693 | 12,130 | 16,808 | ||||
| Current expenditures | 6,954 | 1,329 | 1,467 | 3,269 | 5,313 | 8,420 | 2,423 | 4,800 | 7,403 | 10,287 | ||||
| Primary current expenditures | 6,461 | 1,240 | 1,312 | 3,038 | 4,900 | 7,894 | 2,311 | 4,564 | 7,014 | 9,744 | ||||
| Wages and salaries | 2,102 | 585 | 539 | 1,136 | 1,734 | 2,356 | 610 | 1,304 | 2,115 | 2,947 | ||||
| Goods and services | 2,499 | 418 | 377 | 1,001 | 1,725 | 2,689 | 496 | 1,156 | 1,987 | 3,126 | ||||
| Subsides and transfers | 1,860 | 237 | 392 | 888 | 1,387 | 2,021 | 416 | 935 | 1,440 | 2,056 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | 4 | 12 | 54 | 827 | 790 | 1,168 | 1,472 | 1,613 | ||||
| Interest on debt | 493 | 89 | 155 | 230 | 413 | 526 | 112 | 237 | 389 | 543 | ||||
| Domestic debt | 421 | 52 | 128 | 185 | 334 | 434 | 65 | 170 | 279 | 415 | ||||
| External debt | 72 | 37 | 28 | 46 | 79 | 93 | 47 | 66 | 110 | 128 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 3,822 | 1,508 | 689 | 1,745 | 2,803 | 5,445 | 1,211 | 2,796 | 4,581 | 6,327 | ||||
| Domestically financed | 2,184 | 1,049 | 462 | 1,334 | 2,118 | 2,861 | 488 | 1,392 | 2,332 | 3,280 | ||||
| Capital transfers | 17 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 27 | 11 | 23 | 37 | 48 | ||||
| Externally financed | 1,620 | 450 | 221 | 399 | 664 | 2,558 | 711 | 1,381 | 2,213 | 3,000 | ||||
| Net lending & restructuring expenditure | 9 | 99 | 0 | 34 | 76 | 106 | 48 | 97 | 145 | 194 | ||||
| Basic fiscal balance 3 | −1,188 | −354 | −5 | −260 | −947 | −2,638 | −773 | −1,276 | −2,101 | −3,324 | ||||
| Percent of GDP | −2.8 | −0.8 | −0.0 | −0.6 | −2.0 | −5.7 | −1.5 | −2.5 | −4.2 | −6.6 | ||||
| Overall balance, commitment basis | ||||||||||||||
| Excluding grants | −2,880 | −841 | −254 | −704 | −1,690 | −5,288 | −1,532 | −2,723 | −4,424 | −6,452 | ||||
| Including grants | −2,241 | −541 | −152 | −136 | −1,060 | −2,020 | −1,053 | −1,747 | −3,303 | −5,079 | ||||
| Financing | 2,241 | 541 | 148 | 122 | 1,006 | 2,020 | 765 | 1,460 | 2,400 | 3,435 | ||||
| Domestic financing | 1,042 | 494 | 65 | 112 | 821 | 596 | 289 | 585 | 880 | 1,536 | ||||
| Bank financing | 1,011 | 639 | 166 | 43 | 652 | 768 | 394 | 794 | 1,194 | 1,394 | ||||
| Central bank | 901 | 639 | 102 | −28 | 650 | 768 | 394 | 394 | 394 | 394 | ||||
| Commercial banks | 110 | 0 | 64 | 71 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 800 | 1,000 | ||||
| Nonbank financing | 209 | −145 | −101 | 69 | 169 | −173 | −104 | −209 | −313 | 142 | ||||
| Borrowing/Amortization of domestic debt (net) | 200 | −45 | 0 | 0 | −64 | −285 | −71 | −143 | −214 | −285 | ||||
| Change in arrears | 0 | −101 | −115 | 36 | 206 | 106 | −38 | −75 | −113 | −150 | ||||
| Exceptional revenue | 0 | 0 | … | … | … | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 560 | ||||
| Other | 9 | 0 | 14 | 33 | 27 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 17 | ||||
| External financing (net) | 1,200 | 47 | 84 | 10 | 185 | 1,425 | 476 | 875 | 1,520 | 1,899 | ||||
| Drawings | 1,509 | 150 | 120 | 198 | 403 | 1,791 | 530 | 1,072 | 1,759 | 2,295 | ||||
| Project | 1,268 | 150 | 120 | 198 | 403 | 792 | 530 | 1,072 | 1,759 | 2,295 | ||||
| Program | 242 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | … | … | … | 0 | … | … | … | … | ||||
| Amortization due | −341 | −103 | −43 | −212 | −250 | −421 | −54 | −198 | −240 | −396 | ||||
| Debt relief 4 | 6 | 350 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 1,079 | ||||
| Change in arrears (- = reduction) 4 | 26 | −350 | 7 | 24 | 32 | 50 | −57 | −57 | −57 | −1,079 | ||||
| Financing gap | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 0 | 288 | 288 | 903 | 1,644 | ||||
| Possible financing (incl. debt relief) | 288 | 288 | 903 | 1,644 | ||||||||||
| IMF | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | ||||||||||
| Ebola-related donor pledges | … | … | 615 | 1,357 | ||||||||||
| Other/Adjustment measures | … | … | … | … | ||||||||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP | 43,048.2 | 43,048.2 | 46,462.8 | 46,462.8 | 46,462.8 | 46,462.8 | 50,084.4 | 50,084.4 | 50,084.4 | 50,084.4 | ||||
Based on GFSM 1986 due to data availability limitations.
Program as established at the time of the 4th ECF Review.
Revenue minus expenditure excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.
For 2014 (program) and 2015 (projected), debt relief is on outstanding loans fully in arrears owed to non-Paris club official and commercial creditors.
Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2013–151
(Billions of Guinean Francs; unless otherwise indicated)
| 2014 | 2015 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Mar. | Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | Mar. | Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | ||||||
| Prog.2 | Act. | Act. | Prel. | Est. | Prog. | |||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 8,544 | 2,395 | 2,004 | 4,912 | 7,131 | 11,951 | 2,630 | 5,946 | 8,827 | 11,729 | ||||
| Revenue | 7,905 | 2,095 | 1,903 | 4,343 | 6,501 | 8,683 | 2,151 | 4,969 | 7,706 | 10,356 | ||||
| Mining sector | 1,489 | 291 | 285 | 686 | 1,029 | 1,326 | 282 | 676 | 1,031 | 1,392 | ||||
| Non-mining sector | 6,130 | 1,718 | 1,536 | 3,473 | 5,107 | 6,899 | 1,811 | 4,144 | 6,382 | 8,578 | ||||
| Direct taxes | 1,484 | 328 | 251 | 797 | 1,129 | 1,495 | 290 | 849 | 1,269 | 1,608 | ||||
| Indirect taxes | 4,646 | 1,390 | 1,286 | 2,676 | 3,978 | 5,404 | 1,520 | 3,295 | 5,113 | 6,970 | ||||
| Taxes on goods and services | 2,943 | 866 | 810 | 1,671 | 2,474 | 3,444 | 1,072 | 2,267 | 3,492 | 4,715 | ||||
| Taxes on international trade | 1,703 | 524 | 475 | 1,005 | 1,504 | 1,960 | 448 | 1,028 | 1,621 | 2,255 | ||||
| Non-tax revenue | 286 | 86 | 81 | 185 | 365 | 458 | 58 | 149 | 293 | 386 | ||||
| Grants | 639 | 300 | 102 | 569 | 630 | 3,268 | 479 | 976 | 1,121 | 1,372 | ||||
| Project grants | 462 | 300 | 102 | 200 | 261 | 1,765 | 182 | 309 | 453 | 705 | ||||
| Budget support | 177 | 0 | 0 | 369 | 369 | 710 | 298 | 668 | 668 | 668 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | … | … | 0 | 792 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Expenditures and net lending | 10,785 | 2,936 | 2,157 | 5,048 | 8,191 | 13,971 | 3,683 | 7,693 | 12,130 | 16,808 | ||||
| Current expenditures | 6,954 | 1,329 | 1,467 | 3,269 | 5,313 | 8,420 | 2,423 | 4,800 | 7,403 | 10,287 | ||||
| Primary current expenditures | 6,461 | 1,240 | 1,312 | 3,038 | 4,900 | 7,894 | 2,311 | 4,564 | 7,014 | 9,744 | ||||
| Wages and salaries | 2,102 | 585 | 539 | 1,136 | 1,734 | 2,356 | 610 | 1,304 | 2,115 | 2,947 | ||||
| Goods and services | 2,499 | 418 | 377 | 1,001 | 1,725 | 2,689 | 496 | 1,156 | 1,987 | 3,126 | ||||
| Subsides and transfers | 1,860 | 237 | 392 | 888 | 1,387 | 2,021 | 416 | 935 | 1,440 | 2,056 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | 4 | 12 | 54 | 827 | 790 | 1,168 | 1,472 | 1,613 | ||||
| Interest on debt | 493 | 89 | 155 | 230 | 413 | 526 | 112 | 237 | 389 | 543 | ||||
| Domestic debt | 421 | 52 | 128 | 185 | 334 | 434 | 65 | 170 | 279 | 415 | ||||
| External debt | 72 | 37 | 28 | 46 | 79 | 93 | 47 | 66 | 110 | 128 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 3,822 | 1,508 | 689 | 1,745 | 2,803 | 5,445 | 1,211 | 2,796 | 4,581 | 6,327 | ||||
| Domestically financed | 2,184 | 1,049 | 462 | 1,334 | 2,118 | 2,861 | 488 | 1,392 | 2,332 | 3,280 | ||||
| Capital transfers | 17 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 27 | 11 | 23 | 37 | 48 | ||||
| Externally financed | 1,620 | 450 | 221 | 399 | 664 | 2,558 | 711 | 1,381 | 2,213 | 3,000 | ||||
| Net lending & restructuring expenditure | 9 | 99 | 0 | 34 | 76 | 106 | 48 | 97 | 145 | 194 | ||||
| Basic fiscal balance 3 | −1,188 | −354 | −5 | −260 | −947 | −2,638 | −773 | −1,276 | −2,101 | −3,324 | ||||
| Percent of GDP | −2.8 | −0.8 | −0.0 | −0.6 | −2.0 | −5.7 | −1.5 | −2.5 | −4.2 | −6.6 | ||||
| Overall balance, commitment basis | ||||||||||||||
| Excluding grants | −2,880 | −841 | −254 | −704 | −1,690 | −5,288 | −1,532 | −2,723 | −4,424 | −6,452 | ||||
| Including grants | −2,241 | −541 | −152 | −136 | −1,060 | −2,020 | −1,053 | −1,747 | −3,303 | −5,079 | ||||
| Financing | 2,241 | 541 | 148 | 122 | 1,006 | 2,020 | 765 | 1,460 | 2,400 | 3,435 | ||||
| Domestic financing | 1,042 | 494 | 65 | 112 | 821 | 596 | 289 | 585 | 880 | 1,536 | ||||
| Bank financing | 1,011 | 639 | 166 | 43 | 652 | 768 | 394 | 794 | 1,194 | 1,394 | ||||
| Central bank | 901 | 639 | 102 | −28 | 650 | 768 | 394 | 394 | 394 | 394 | ||||
| Commercial banks | 110 | 0 | 64 | 71 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 800 | 1,000 | ||||
| Nonbank financing | 209 | −145 | −101 | 69 | 169 | −173 | −104 | −209 | −313 | 142 | ||||
| Borrowing/Amortization of domestic debt (net) | 200 | −45 | 0 | 0 | −64 | −285 | −71 | −143 | −214 | −285 | ||||
| Change in arrears | 0 | −101 | −115 | 36 | 206 | 106 | −38 | −75 | −113 | −150 | ||||
| Exceptional revenue | 0 | 0 | … | … | … | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 560 | ||||
| Other | 9 | 0 | 14 | 33 | 27 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 17 | ||||
| External financing (net) | 1,200 | 47 | 84 | 10 | 185 | 1,425 | 476 | 875 | 1,520 | 1,899 | ||||
| Drawings | 1,509 | 150 | 120 | 198 | 403 | 1,791 | 530 | 1,072 | 1,759 | 2,295 | ||||
| Project | 1,268 | 150 | 120 | 198 | 403 | 792 | 530 | 1,072 | 1,759 | 2,295 | ||||
| Program | 242 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Ebola-related | … | … | … | … | … | 0 | … | … | … | … | ||||
| Amortization due | −341 | −103 | −43 | −212 | −250 | −421 | −54 | −198 | −240 | −396 | ||||
| Debt relief 4 | 6 | 350 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 1,079 | ||||
| Change in arrears (- = reduction) 4 | 26 | −350 | 7 | 24 | 32 | 50 | −57 | −57 | −57 | −1,079 | ||||
| Financing gap | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 0 | 288 | 288 | 903 | 1,644 | ||||
| Possible financing (incl. debt relief) | 288 | 288 | 903 | 1,644 | ||||||||||
| IMF | 288 | 288 | 288 | 288 | ||||||||||
| Ebola-related donor pledges | … | … | 615 | 1,357 | ||||||||||
| Other/Adjustment measures | … | … | … | … | ||||||||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP | 43,048.2 | 43,048.2 | 46,462.8 | 46,462.8 | 46,462.8 | 46,462.8 | 50,084.4 | 50,084.4 | 50,084.4 | 50,084.4 | ||||
Based on GFSM 1986 due to data availability limitations.
Program as established at the time of the 4th ECF Review.
Revenue minus expenditure excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.
For 2014 (program) and 2015 (projected), debt relief is on outstanding loans fully in arrears owed to non-Paris club official and commercial creditors.
Guinea: Central Bank and Deposit Money Banks Accounts, 2013–151
(Billions of Guinean Francs; unless otherwise indicated)
End of period.
Program as established for the RCF purchase request.
Guinea: Central Bank and Deposit Money Banks Accounts, 2013–151
(Billions of Guinean Francs; unless otherwise indicated)
| 2014 | 2015 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | Mar. | Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | ||||||||
| Prog.2 | Act. | Prog.2 | Est. | Prog.2 | Est. | Prog. | |||||||||
| Central bank | |||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 3,163 | 3,021 | 3,012 | 3,012 | 3,086 | 2,513 | 2,916 | 2,573 | 2,132 | 1,780 | 1,430 | ||||
| Net domestic assets | 3,815 | 4,392 | 4,171 | 4,171 | 5,217 | 5,318 | 4,642 | 4,048 | 4,628 | 5,109 | 5,389 | ||||
| Domestic credit | 4,462 | 4,585 | 4,325 | 4,325 | 5,005 | 5,910 | 5,234 | 4,453 | 4,846 | 5,240 | 5,634 | ||||
| Claims on central government (net) | 4,397 | 4,541 | 4,280 | 4,280 | 4,946 | 5,849 | 5,165 | 4,378 | 4,772 | 5,165 | 5,559 | ||||
| Claims on private sector | 50 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 46 | 46 | 52 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | ||||
| Liabilities to deposit money banks (-) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | ||||
| Claims on other public sector | 15 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | ||||
| Other items, net (assets +) | −647 | −193 | −154 | −154 | 212 | −592 | −592 | −405 | −218 | −131 | −245 | ||||
| Reserve money | 6,978 | 7,413 | 7,183 | 7,183 | 8,303 | 7,830 | 7,557 | 6,620 | 6,760 | 6,889 | 6,820 | ||||
| Currency outside banks | 4,052 | 4,169 | 4,234 | 4,234 | 4,194 | 4,159 | 4,286 | 4,921 | 4,848 | 4,658 | 4,617 | ||||
| Bank reserves | 2,508 | 2,760 | 2,557 | 2,557 | 3,499 | 3,254 | 2,652 | 1,180 | 1,493 | 1,911 | 1,983 | ||||
| Deposits | 2,095 | 2,356 | 2,129 | 2,129 | 3,002 | 2,802 | 2,155 | 1,877 | 1,734 | 1,797 | 1,662 | ||||
| Required reserves | 1,720 | 1,746 | 1,753 | 1,753 | 1,906 | 1,857 | 1,975 | 1,563 | 1,451 | 1,552 | 1,573 | ||||
| Excess reserves | 376 | 610 | 376 | 376 | 1,096 | 945 | 181 | 314 | 282 | 245 | 89 | ||||
| Cash in vaults of deposit banks | 413 | 405 | 428 | 428 | 497 | 452 | 497 | 303 | 159 | 115 | 320 | ||||
| Private sector deposits | 418 | 484 | 392 | 392 | 610 | 418 | 619 | 519 | 419 | 319 | 219 | ||||
| Deposit money banks | |||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | |||||||||||||||