Montenegro: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex
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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
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KEY ISSUESContext: Moderate growth is continuing; however credit and wage growth are weak.The level of nonperforming loans (NPLs) remains high and public debt has risen sharplyin recent years.Fiscal policy: Medium-term funding needs to roll over existing debt and to fund budgetdeficits are large. A new highway, budgeted to cost about one quarter of GDP, will cause deficits to widen and add to public debt. The draft 2015 budget shows appropriate restraint on other spending, but a long period of strong fiscal discipline will be needed to manage fiscal risks. Laying out clear long-term plans for managing the public finances would boost credibility and reduce risks to market access. Fundamental expenditure reform, especially of the pension system and the public sector wage bill, would be an essential part of such plans.Financial sector: The banking system’s liquidity appears comfortable; however, profitability is low and lending spreads are high. Regulatory provisioning is set higher than that reported under international accounting standards, but a wide range of provisioning levels across banks and weak incentives to take losses remain concerns. A more transparent and comprehensive reporting environment would be beneficial.Reforms to ensure better enforcement of contracts and collateral would help bring down structural lending risk premia.Structural reform: Higher levels of labor participation and employment are needed to boost potential growth and safeguard the public finances. Ensuring that wages adjust in line with productivity alongside reforms to achieve better employment outcomes and boost productivity would enhance the economy’s ability to respond to macroeconomic shocks, and are even more important in a country that lacks its own currency and with decreasing fiscal buffers.

Abstract

KEY ISSUESContext: Moderate growth is continuing; however credit and wage growth are weak.The level of nonperforming loans (NPLs) remains high and public debt has risen sharplyin recent years.Fiscal policy: Medium-term funding needs to roll over existing debt and to fund budgetdeficits are large. A new highway, budgeted to cost about one quarter of GDP, will cause deficits to widen and add to public debt. The draft 2015 budget shows appropriate restraint on other spending, but a long period of strong fiscal discipline will be needed to manage fiscal risks. Laying out clear long-term plans for managing the public finances would boost credibility and reduce risks to market access. Fundamental expenditure reform, especially of the pension system and the public sector wage bill, would be an essential part of such plans.Financial sector: The banking system’s liquidity appears comfortable; however, profitability is low and lending spreads are high. Regulatory provisioning is set higher than that reported under international accounting standards, but a wide range of provisioning levels across banks and weak incentives to take losses remain concerns. A more transparent and comprehensive reporting environment would be beneficial.Reforms to ensure better enforcement of contracts and collateral would help bring down structural lending risk premia.Structural reform: Higher levels of labor participation and employment are needed to boost potential growth and safeguard the public finances. Ensuring that wages adjust in line with productivity alongside reforms to achieve better employment outcomes and boost productivity would enhance the economy’s ability to respond to macroeconomic shocks, and are even more important in a country that lacks its own currency and with decreasing fiscal buffers.

Fund Relations

(As of October 31, 2014)

Membership Status: Joined January 18, 2007; Article VIII.

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None.

Latest Financial Arrangements: None.

Projected Obligations to Fund (In millions of SDR):

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Implementation of HIPC Initiative: Not Applicable.

Implementation of Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI): Not Applicable.

Implementation of Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief (PCDR): Not Applicable.

Exchange Arrangement: Montenegro does not issue its own currency and has been using the euro as legal tender since 2002. It has accepted the obligations under Article VIII. Montenegro maintains an exchange system free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, except with respect to pre-1992 blocked foreign currency savings accounts and restrictions maintained for security purposes that have not been notified to the Fund.

Latest Article IV Consultation: Concluded on July 22, 2013 (IMF Country Report No. 13/271).

FSAP Participation: A Financial Sector Assessment Program was initiated in July 2006, jointly with the World Bank, and concluded during the 2007 Article IV consultation. The Executive Board discussed the Financial System Stability Assessment in January 2008 (IMF Country Report No. 08/50).

Technical Assistance in the Past 12 Months:

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In addition, technical assistance was available through resident advisors covering tax administration and public financial management.

Resident Representative: None.

World Bank Group Relations

1. Montenegro joined the World Bank Group (WBG) as an independent country in January 2007. The Bank had implemented a program of lending and analytical work for Montenegro for most of the period since the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro joined the WBG in 2001. Six projects are currently active, with 1½ years before the end of the Montenegro’s second Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for the fiscal years 2011–15. The CPS was prepared at a time when the country was striving to recover from a sharp economic contraction associated with the 2008 global and Eurozone crisis. In the wake of the crisis, the initially-envisaged total IBRD lending of US$215.7 million was increased by nearly US$100 million. The lending program was complemented by a mix of analytic and technical support aligned with the CPS pillars.

2. The Board approved the CPS in January 2011 and the CPS Progress Report in May 2014 extending the CPS by one year through FY15 as both CPS pillars—(i) strengthening institutions and aligning them with European Union (EU) requirements in areas critical for longer-term competitiveness in global markets; and (ii) improving environmental management—remain highly relevant, and the additional year facilitates the delivery of the planned lending program. Also, with uncertainties in the fiscal framework and public investment program, an additional year was deemed helpful in gaining greater clarity on the likely medium-term macro-fiscal framework that would underpin a new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) and influence planned lending volumes and instruments.

Montenegro: World Bank Project Portfolio, November 2014

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3. Within the CPS FY11–FY15, the IBRD Board approved five IBRD loans to provide selective support to two key CPS priorities. The CPS originally envisaged a series of two financial sector development policy operations (DPOs). In light of post-crisis needs, the second DPO was converted into a larger financial sector policy-based guarantee (PBG) that supported a comprehensive program of measures designed to strengthen the banking sector, address its vulnerabilities, and bolster its resilience to possible future shocks. This support also led to advisory work on nonperforming loans (NPL) resolution. Additional countercyclical stimulus was considered through a Public Expenditure DPO, but did not materialize in FY13–14 given the remaining weaknesses in the medium-term fiscal framework. New investment lending was approved for a Higher Education/R&D project (US$16 million), Energy Efficiency Additional Financing (US$6.8 million) and an Industrial Waste Management and Clean-Up Project (US$69 million). The committed portfolio has doubled since to US$137 million in 2014. About 71 percent of these commitments remain to be disbursed.

4. Pipeline projects include (i) a Revenue Administration and Modernization Project building on the recent tax administration assessment that aims to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of tax administration as well as reduce the cost of compliance for the taxpayer; (ii) a Fiscal and Debt Management technical assistance operation that aims to support strengthening the institutional capacity of fiscal resources and public debt management; (iii) a Trade and Competitiveness project that aims to provide support to the business environment, enterprise development and skills and labor market development interventions; (iv) a second Health Improvement project that aims to provide a support for financing reforms and governance for quality in the health sector.

5. Cooperation with the IMF has been good, particularly in the areas of macroeconomic and financial sector policies. Bank and Fund teams coordinated closely during the preparation of the Financial Sector DPL and Policy-Based Guarantee in 2011 and 2012 and the TA on NPL resolution. The World Bank Group, through its ongoing and planned operations, as well its complementary economic and sector work, will continue to provide input to the IMF on issues such as (i) public expenditure, including pension and health reforms; (ii) business climate and competitiveness, including labor market reform and the resolution of nonperforming loans; (iii) public sector institutions and fiduciary reviews, (iv) agricultural assessments; and (v) statistical capacity building and poverty monitoring. The Fund and Bank staff have sought each other’s input in internal review processes.

Montenegro: Joint Management Action Plan - Bank and Fund Planned Activities in Macro-critical Structural Reform Areas, January—December 2015

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Prepared by World Bank staff. Questions may be addressed to Sanja Madzarevic-Sujster, country economist (smadzarevic@worldbank.org), and Gallina A. Vincelette, lead economist Western Balkans (gvincelette@worldbank.org).

Statistical Issues

Montenegro—Statistical Issues Appendix

As of December 2014

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Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of end-Dec 2014)

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).

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