Paraguay: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module Volume II

OVERALL ASSESSMENT This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module provides an update of the assessment conducted in February 2006, which was based on the July 2003 version of the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). This ROSC Data Module is the first complete report based on the May 2012 vintage of the DQAF that covers six datasets, namely, national accounts (NA), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics, monetary statistics, and balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) statistics. The agencies that compile and disseminate these statistics are the Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP) for all datasets but GFS, which are compiled and disseminated by the Ministry of Finance (MOF). Following the 2006 ROSC Data Module mission, Paraguay made significant improvements in the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics, including (i) adequate methodological treatment of the two large binational hydroelectrical enterprises to properly reflect their contribution to Paraguay’s GDP, BOP, and other international accounts; (ii) compilation and dissemination of quarterly national accounts and integrated economic accounts for the total economy up to net lending; (iii) new CPI series (December 2007=100) and PPI series (June 2011=100), with several methodological improvements (introduction of an adequate treatment of seasonal products and use of improved estimation techniques for missing prices), among others. Paraguay participates in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since September 2001, and the metadata for its macroeconomic statistics are posted on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). Paraguay meets GDDS recommendations for the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of data, with the following two exceptions: (i) in the financial sector, the depository corporations (DC) survey is compiled on a monthly basis with a one-month lag but is not disseminated; and (ii) in the external sector, the debt service payment schedules for both public and private external debt are not disseminated. Appendix I provides an overview of Paraguay's dissemination practices compared to the GDDS. At the request of the authorities, Paraguay’s current data dissemination practices were also reviewed against the requirements of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). A detailed description of Paraguay current practices against the SDDS is presented in Appendix IV of the accompanying detailed assessment document (Volume III).

Abstract

OVERALL ASSESSMENT This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module provides an update of the assessment conducted in February 2006, which was based on the July 2003 version of the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). This ROSC Data Module is the first complete report based on the May 2012 vintage of the DQAF that covers six datasets, namely, national accounts (NA), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics, monetary statistics, and balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) statistics. The agencies that compile and disseminate these statistics are the Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP) for all datasets but GFS, which are compiled and disseminated by the Ministry of Finance (MOF). Following the 2006 ROSC Data Module mission, Paraguay made significant improvements in the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics, including (i) adequate methodological treatment of the two large binational hydroelectrical enterprises to properly reflect their contribution to Paraguay’s GDP, BOP, and other international accounts; (ii) compilation and dissemination of quarterly national accounts and integrated economic accounts for the total economy up to net lending; (iii) new CPI series (December 2007=100) and PPI series (June 2011=100), with several methodological improvements (introduction of an adequate treatment of seasonal products and use of improved estimation techniques for missing prices), among others. Paraguay participates in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since September 2001, and the metadata for its macroeconomic statistics are posted on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). Paraguay meets GDDS recommendations for the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of data, with the following two exceptions: (i) in the financial sector, the depository corporations (DC) survey is compiled on a monthly basis with a one-month lag but is not disseminated; and (ii) in the external sector, the debt service payment schedules for both public and private external debt are not disseminated. Appendix I provides an overview of Paraguay's dissemination practices compared to the GDDS. At the request of the authorities, Paraguay’s current data dissemination practices were also reviewed against the requirements of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). A detailed description of Paraguay current practices against the SDDS is presented in Appendix IV of the accompanying detailed assessment document (Volume III).

Introduction

The Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF) appreciate the opportunity to provide comments on the ROSC data module. We collaborated closely with the data module ROSC mission and agree with the thrust of the mission’s recommendations. Indeed, some of the mission’s recommendations were addressed during the mission and few others are being implemented. This document presents our comments on the six datasets assessed during the mission.

Cross-Cutting Recommendations

A. High Priority

1. Give higher priority to statistical functions and promote the adoption of a modern Statistics Law that clearly assigns responsibilities among data-producing agencies. The CBP will brief the Economic Team on the necessity and importance of the prioritization of statistical functions and the adoption of a modern law guaranteeing and promoting the coordination of inter-institutional tasks among government agencies with legally established statistical functions.

2. Provide adequate staff resources and other resources to assure the timely and sustainable compilation and dissemination of statistics in accordance with current international standards. The recruitment and training of new human resources will be promoted, as well as the procurement of advanced technological equipment, based on the available budget resources.

3. Improve and institutionalize data sharing and overall coordination between the different agencies collecting source data needed for macroeconomic statistics. Cooperation agreements will be entered into between the CBP, MOF, the National Institute of Cooperatives (INCOOP), and the General Directorate of Statistics, Surveys, and Census (DGEEC) on the sharing of statistical data necessary for the compilation of macroeconomic statistics.

4. Establish regular mechanisms for enhancing intersectoral data consistency. An intersectoral data consistency committee will be organized, reflecting the new structure of the CBP.

B. Other key recommendations

5. Update and maintain current the metadata available in national publications as well as the GDDS metadata posted on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). The CBP updated the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) metadata shortly after the ROSC mission. The metadata will also be posted on the CBP website in both Spanish and English.

6. Develop a medium-term plan to subscribe to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) by 2017. In light of the recommendations of the ROSC mission on the pending required actions in Paraguayan statistics, progress in the following areas has been made:

(a) In the real sector

  • Improve the timeliness of monthly PPI statistics. The CBP has shortened the release date of the Producer Price Index (PPI), as can be seen in the Release Calendar on its website.

  • Improve the timeliness of monthly production indexes. The CBP recently shortened the release time for the monthly index of economic activity (IMAE) and noted this fact in the release calendar on its website. However, improving such timeliness will depend mainly on the provision of the basic statistics supplied by other institutions. The CBP therefore plans to sign inter-institutional agreements clearly stipulating the time and method of submission of basic statistics for the preparation of the national accounts and economic indicators.

(b) In the financial sector

  • Publish the monthly survey of depository corporations. Since May 2014, the monetary survey has been published in the Statistical Annex of the Monthly Economic Report, which covers the banking system. Once an agreement is signed with INCOOP to ensure the regular and timely submission of data, the monetary survey will be augmented with the data on “Type A” cooperatives, that is, the largest ones.

(c) In the external sector

  • Monthly dissemination of the international reserves and foreign currency liquidity template with a one-month lag. The international reserves and foreign currency liquidity template has been completed and is in process of internal approval by the authorities. A draft template will be sent to the IMF statistics Department in the near future.

7. Further enhance data and metadata accessibility of all datasets, including adequate formats for data dissemination and sector-specific contact information on the CBP and MOF websites. To facilitate data accessibility, the CBP has been working on the preparation of an interactive online database where users could select time series and frequency. Metadata will be posted on the CBP website in both Spanish and English. The inclusion of sector-specific contact points is being assessed.

8. Strengthen data revision policies and practices and make them known to the public. Data revision policies and practices employed in the compilation of statistical data will be published on the CBP website. This information will be updated as necessary.

Response by the Central Bank of Paraguay

A. National Accounts

High Priority

9. Update the 1994 base year of the national accounts to obtain an accurate and comprehensive portrait of the current economic situation. Since end-2013, the CBP has been moving forward with a program to update the base year of the System of National Accounts, focused essentially on the supply and use tables and on expanding the system, which will involve the preparation of the integrated economic accounts. Both endeavors will be guided by the recommendations of the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA). The program for updating and expanding the system also includes increasing the human resources involved in the process, with the aim of ensuring the continuity over time of the technical tasks related to the program. To this end, the CBP recently hired new employees to strengthen the technical capabilities of the National Accounts Division.

10. Develop a plan for implementing the 2008 SNA as soon as possible, with a clear timetable and activities, detailing the tasks to meet new requirements, such as updating classifications and sectorization. Implementation of the 2008 SNA is a key component of the program to update the base year of the national accounts. A timetable was developed for the program, detailing the activities to be carried out in the next 2 ½ years. Of particular note is the progress made with regard to the new system’s classifications, both for economic activities and products, as well as for institutional sectors. Technical assistance from the IMF will be required for the implementation of the 2008 SNA.

11. Develop and implement a program for conducting periodic economic surveys covering manufacture, services, and other relevant activities. As part of the program to update the base year of the national accounts, economic surveys will be carried out covering relevant activities with a high concentration of production. Furthermore, this recommendation will be assessed in a context in which the contribution of the DGEEC to the production of economic statistics will be taken into account.

12. Maintain a regularly updated business register. The CBP has a General Directory of Businesses (DIRGE) prepared by the DGEEC in conjunction with the 2011 National Economic Census, which is to be updated regularly by the DGEEC. In addition to this new business directory, the CBP has a register of businesses provided by the MOF, with data (sales reports and balance sheets) wherein businesses are identified by their respective Single Taxpayer Registration Number (RUC). In that connection, and as part of the program to update the base year, the DIRGE will be used to classify the businesses provided by the MOF, correlating them by RUC. The DIRGE will provide the universe of businesses operating in each economic sector, which will in turn permit monitoring them in the years following the base year update.

Other key recommendations

13. Use available data on prices and values of main inputs and outputs to apply the double deflation/inflation method on annual basis. This methodological recommendation will be implemented as part of the program to update the base year of the national accounts.

14. Expand the coverage of the sample used for collecting tax data from the MOF to improve source data for the national accounts. The CBP is currently working on an update and expansion of the register of businesses received from the MOF, which is based on 2012 and 2013 data. As mentioned, this information will be combined with the data from the DGEEC’s DIRGE.

15. Improve the timeliness of the quarterly national accounts and of the monthly index of economic activity to take full advantage of their potential as inputs for policy-making decisions. The CBP recently shortened the release time for the monthly index of economic activity and noted this fact in the release calendar on its website. However, improving the timeliness of the said indicators will depend chiefly on the provision of the basic statistics supplied by other institutions. The CBP therefore plans to sign inter-institutional agreements clearly stipulating the time and method of submission of the basic data for the preparation of the national accounts and economic indicators.

16. Compile supply and use tables in order to improve the consistency of national accounts estimates, with particular attention on estimates of non-observed activities, household final consumption expenditure, and changes in inventories. These methodological recommendations will be implemented as part of the program to update the base year of the national accounts. The supply and use tables will be made available on an annual basis, with particular attention given to estimates of the other components suggested by the ROSC mission.

17. Assess the use of chain-linked indices for improving volume measures of the national accounts. This methodological recommendation will be implemented as part of the program to update the base year of the national accounts.

B. Consumer Price Index

High Priority

18. Conduct a new Household Budget Survey to update CPI weights. The CBP will plan the next Household Budget Survey (HBS) jointly with the DGEEC, in order to update the Consumer Price Index (CPI) weights. Consideration will be given to expanding the coverage of the current CPI to include the country’s largest cities as well as introducing other methodological improvements based on the suggestions of the ROSC mission.

Other key recommendation

19. Conduct a study in order to investigate whether the inclusion of prices collected in areas not currently covered by the CPI will impact significantly on official inflation rates. This recommendation will be considered in the CPI update program. In addition, consideration should be given to the possibility of conducting some other type of study on the items in the consumer basket, with a view to comparing price growth in the current coverage area and in the country’s largest cities.

C. Producer Price Index

High Priority

20. Remove imports from PPI scope in line with new international methodological standards. Based on this methodological recommendation, imported products will be removed in order to adapt the indicator to the concepts and recommendations contained in the 2004 PPI manual. The PPI of domestic products (concept closer to the new definition) will be renamed as the PPI, and the general index of the previous version will be renamed as a wholesale price index. In keeping with best practices, users will be informed of the proposed changes before they are made.

Other key recommendations

21. Expand gradually the scope of the PPI to include, at first, exports and electricity and water supply and, at a second stage, construction and services. This methodological recommendation will be considered in the PPI update program.

22. Seek expert advice and promote staff training on PPI methodology. The CBP has requested technical advice to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a comprehensive revision of the PPI, chiefly for the purpose of aligning it to the international standards. We believe that an improved PPI will also contribute to improvement of the estimates of the national accounts in Paraguay.

D. Monetary Statistics

High Priority

23. Expand the coverage of the other depository corporations (ODC) survey with the inclusion of the largest credit unions, which account for 15 percent of the deposits of the system. In order to attain this objective, the CBP intends to sign an agreement with INCOOP to obtain and include the data on “Type A” cooperatives (i.e., the largest ones) in the monetary survey.

24. Sign a formal agreement with the National Institute of Cooperatives (INCOOP) to establish regular submission of credit union data from the INCOOP to the CBP and to address other data sharing issues. The CBP intends to sign an agreement with INCOOP to ensure the regular and timely submission of data.

25. Disseminate the depository corporations and the ODC surveys compiled by the CBP. Starting May 2014, the monetary survey will be published in the Statistical Annex of the CBP’s Monthly Economic Report, which will cover the banking system and other financial institutions. Once an agreement is signed with INCOOP to ensure the regular and timely submission of data, the monetary survey will be augmented with the data on “Type A” cooperatives.

Other key recommendations

26. Compile and disseminate the other financial corporations (OFC) survey covering data of insurance corporations and other relevant financial intermediaries. The necessary steps will be taken to compile the consolidated accounts of insurance corporations for inclusion in the OFC survey. This will require allocating human resources that will be in charge of working with the data obtained from the Superintendency of Insurance.

27. Improve the procedures for data cross-checking with GFS and BOP statistics. The financial system data compiled for the monetary statistics will be periodically reconciled with the balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) data for the resident banking system, as well as with the MOF’s government finance statistics (GFS).

28. Break up the accounts of other nonfinancial corporations from those of households and NPISH. To this end, the chart of accounts of commercial banks and finance companies would need to be modified to reflect. Separating the accounts of other nonfinancial corporations into households and nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISH) involves changing the financial institutions’ plan of accounts. This recommendation will therefore be taken into account when the Superintendency of Banks decides to make a change in the plan of accounts for financial institutions.

E. Balance of Payments Statistics

High priority

29. Develop a comprehensive plan to migrate the balance of payments and IIP statistics to BPM6, identifying actions and key target dates. Working procedures are being developed to complete the implementation of the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and international Investment Position Manual (BPM6) in 2014. Technical assistance from the IMF has been requested to ensure attainment of the objective. The CBP intends to finalize the current account in July, while the financial account will be completed in November of this year. The BPM6 version of the balance of payments and IIP is intended for publication in the 2014 Preliminary Economic Report of the CBP. The CBP will publish a technical note explaining the BPM6 migration process to inform the general public.

30. Supplement direct investment survey data with the information collected from the balance sheets and income statements to cover no response. Prepare and maintain a register of direct investment enterprises in Paraguay. Joint efforts have been undertaken with the Tax Authority on the use of data submitted for tax purposes by businesses, and it is expected that an inter-institutional agreement will be signed to that effect. Continuous processes of monitoring and improving the collection of foreign investment data are under way, subject to the general recommendations on available technical personnel and the legal framework for statistical compilation.

31. Improve the adjustments in the estimation of data on foreign trade, revising the process to estimate goods leaving commercial free zones (“re-exports”) based on data provided by the Directorate General of Customs. Joint efforts are under way with the National Customs Directorate to use administrative records of import data subject to the tourism regime, which provide more favorable conditions for the resale of imported goods abroad. It is expected that the current estimation system based on potential consumption will be replaced by administrative records in 2014, in conjunction with the implementation of BPM6. The use of the new data series is subject to inter-sectoral coordination with the other statistics-producing agencies of the CBP.

Other key recommendations

32. Conduct regular meetings (at least twice a year) with the MOF, to discuss issues of common interest, coordinate the submission of external debt data to the World Bank (QEDS), and ensure the consistency of fiscal and external sector statistics. Regular meetings have been initiated with officials of the Directorate of Public Credit and the Debt Directorate of the MOF for the purpose of assigning dissemination functions. The MOF is responsible for publishing data on the external debt of the National Treasury, based on UNCTAD’s Debt Management and Financial System (SIGADE), which is currently sent to the World Bank databases. The CBP is responsible for compiling and disseminating total external debt using the data provided by the Directorate of Public Credit regarding the National Treasury, as well as other sources, to compile total external debt. The CBP and the MOF will take the necessary steps to assure consistency of fiscal and external sector statistics, including external debt and IIP data.

33. Disseminate balance of payments and IIP statistics with sectoral breakdown, in accordance with international standards. Publication of the institutional breakdown of data is part of the migration from BPM5 to BPM6 planned for this year.

34. Obtain information of the currency of denomination of financial assets and liabilities in order to improve treatment of exchange rate changes when balance of payments transactions are estimated from positions data. The improvements in the prioritization of statistical functions, the reform of the legal framework, and the allocation of human and financial resources will allow increasing the detail and the quality of the data.

Response by the Ministry of Finance

A. Government Finance Statistics

The Ministry of Finance expresses its appreciation to the ROSC mission from the IMF’s Statistics Department for its assessment of the country’s fiscal statistics and the recommendations made for their improvement. The MOF is fully aware of the challenges that it faces in this area, and of the vital importance of government finance statistics in the design, monitoring, and evaluation of the government’s fiscal policy.

In this context, we endorse the mission’s recommendation to implement the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 methodology, and express our need for IMF assistance to evaluate the resources currently available, as well as the requirements of the new methodology in terms of basis of recording, coverage, valuation, integration of flows and stocks, and the collection of data on nonfinancial assets.

Action Plan

Based on the data ROSC’s recommendations, and in collaboration with the mission, we have designed an action plan to further increase the analytical usefulness of Paraguay’s macroeconomic statistics. The detailed action plan presented below includes cross-cutting actions as well as measures specific to each data set compiled by the CBP. It should be noted that not all actions included in this plan have the same importance or priority, and that at times they are conditional upon the allocation of resources, funding, training, and/or technical assistance.

A. Cross-cutting Actions

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B. National Accounts Statistics

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C. Consumer Price Statistics

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D. Producer Price Statistics

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E. Monetary Statistics

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F. Balance of Payments Statistics

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