KEY ISSUESContext: Solid growth in recent years, supported by high oil prices and output, has boosted living standards. This year, the economy is slowing down, in large part because of weaker domestic and external demand, and regional tensions. Inflation is expected to accelerate temporarily due to the devaluation of the tenge (February 2014). Enhancing the policy architecture and promoting a business environment unencumbered by the state remain key challenges for Kazakhstan to become a dynamic emerging market economy and ensure durable and balanced long-term growth. The recent reappointment of Prime Minister Massimov was accompanied by the authorities’ commitment to speeding up structural reforms. In this context, the government is strengthening its links with the multilateral development banks (MDBs). The May29 signing of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), with Russia and Belarus, is not expected to have near-term economic effects; medium-term effects will depend on how the Union’s rules and regulations will be implemented.Focus of consultation and key recommendations: Amid uncertain external and domestic environments, the consultation focused on policy measures to mitigate shocks and achieve the authorities’ short- and medium-term objectives, in particular:(i) restoring confidence and stability in the post-devaluation environment; (ii) resolving the nonperforming loans (NPL) problem, in line with the recent FSAP recommendations;(iii) bolstering the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks, as recommended last year; and(iv) accelerating structural reforms, including the implementation of industrialization and diversification policies carefully and transparently.Previous consultation: During the 2013 Article IV Consultation, Directors encouraged the authorities to take advantage of the positive outlook to strengthen the macroeconomic policy architecture, including by (i) showing greater determination to addressing the high level of NPLs; (ii) following through on the planned introduction of a new policy interest rate to enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy; and(iii) revamping the medium-term fiscal framework through improved coverage and transparency. Since then, the authorities have been more resolute in dealing with the NPL problem. However, progress in strengthening the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks has been slow.

Abstract

KEY ISSUESContext: Solid growth in recent years, supported by high oil prices and output, has boosted living standards. This year, the economy is slowing down, in large part because of weaker domestic and external demand, and regional tensions. Inflation is expected to accelerate temporarily due to the devaluation of the tenge (February 2014). Enhancing the policy architecture and promoting a business environment unencumbered by the state remain key challenges for Kazakhstan to become a dynamic emerging market economy and ensure durable and balanced long-term growth. The recent reappointment of Prime Minister Massimov was accompanied by the authorities’ commitment to speeding up structural reforms. In this context, the government is strengthening its links with the multilateral development banks (MDBs). The May29 signing of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), with Russia and Belarus, is not expected to have near-term economic effects; medium-term effects will depend on how the Union’s rules and regulations will be implemented.Focus of consultation and key recommendations: Amid uncertain external and domestic environments, the consultation focused on policy measures to mitigate shocks and achieve the authorities’ short- and medium-term objectives, in particular:(i) restoring confidence and stability in the post-devaluation environment; (ii) resolving the nonperforming loans (NPL) problem, in line with the recent FSAP recommendations;(iii) bolstering the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks, as recommended last year; and(iv) accelerating structural reforms, including the implementation of industrialization and diversification policies carefully and transparently.Previous consultation: During the 2013 Article IV Consultation, Directors encouraged the authorities to take advantage of the positive outlook to strengthen the macroeconomic policy architecture, including by (i) showing greater determination to addressing the high level of NPLs; (ii) following through on the planned introduction of a new policy interest rate to enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy; and(iii) revamping the medium-term fiscal framework through improved coverage and transparency. Since then, the authorities have been more resolute in dealing with the NPL problem. However, progress in strengthening the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks has been slow.

Relations with the Fund

(As of June 11, 2014)

Membership status

Joined: 07/15/92; Accepted Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4 in 1996 and maintains an exchange system free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions. The de jure exchange rate arrangement is a managed float, while the de facto arrangement is classified as stabilized.

General resources account

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SDR department

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Outstanding purchases and loans

None

Latest financial arrangements

In millions of SDR

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Projected payments to Fund

None

Safeguards assessments

Not applicable to the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) at this time.

Exchange rate arrangements

The currency of Kazakhstan is the tenge, which was introduced in November 1993. The official exchange rate is determined on the basis of foreign exchange auctions that are held daily. Auctions are held for U.S. dollars, euros, and Russian rubles, and official rates are quoted for over 30 other currencies on the basis of cross-rates. From late 1999 to October 2007, the exchange rate regime was a managed float with no preannounced path. From October 2007 the tenge was maintained within a narrow range against the U.S. dollar. In February 2009, the tenge was devalued by 18 percent against the US dollar, and a trading band of T150/USD +/- 3 percent was established. In February 2010, the trading band was widened and set at an asymmetric T150/USD +10/-15 percent. In February 2011, the trading band was officially abolished, and the de jure exchange rate arrangement was changed from a pegged exchange rate within horizontal bands to a managed float. Between September 2013 and February 2014, the tenge was managed within an unofficial 2 percent band against a basket of currencies comprised of the U.S. dollar (70 percent), the euro (20 percent), and the Russian ruble (10 percent). Since February 2014 (following an 18 percent devaluation against the U.S. dollar), the tenge has stabilized within a trading band of T185/USD +/- 3 tenge/USD. The de facto exchange rate has been reclassified from a crawl-like to a stabilized arrangement, effective February 11, 2014. The NBK may conduct foreign exchange operations both on the regulated Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) and in the interbank foreign exchange markets. The NBK intervenes on its own behalf directly with market participants based on their quotes and does not publish information on its interventions. The exchange system is free from restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions.

Article IV Consultation

Kazakhstan is on the standard 12-month consultation cycle, in accordance with the Decision on Article IV Consultation Cycles (Decision No. 14747-(10/96) (9/28/2010). The last consultation was concluded on August 2, 2013 (see IMF Country Report No. 13/290).

FSAP participation and ROSCS

Kazakhstan participated in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) in 2000. The staff report on the Financial Sector Stability Assessment (FSSA) was issued on November 27, 2000 (FO/DIS/00/142). The FSSA included the following ROSC modules: Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision, Core Principles for Systemically Important Payment Systems, Code of Good Practices on Transparency in Monetary and Financial Policies, IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation, and IAIS Insurance Core Principles. FSAP Updates were conducted in February 2004, March 2008, and February 2014. The fiscal transparency module was completed in October 2002 and the final report published in April 2003. A data module mission took place in April/May 2002, and its final report was published in March 2003. An update of the data ROSC was undertaken in 2006 and the report was published in February 2008 (IMF Country Report No. 08/56, Annex V).

AML/CFT assessment

Kazakhstan’s anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) framework was recently assessed against the AML/CFT standard, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) 40+9 Recommendations. The evaluation was conducted by the Eurasian Group on money laundering and financing of terrorism (EAG), the FATF-style regional body of which Kazakhstan is a member, and the final mutual evaluation report was adopted in June 2011. The report indicates that the main sources of criminal proceeds in Kazakhstan are crimes related to fraud and abuse of public office. The evaluators found that Kazakhstan had a relatively comprehensive AML/CFT framework in place, but that significant deficiencies nevertheless remained, notably with respect to customer due diligence measures and the reporting of suspicious transactions. Kazakhstan is tentatively scheduled to undergo its next AML/CFT assessment by the EAG in April 2017.

Technical Assistance

Kazakhstan has received technical assistance and training by the Fund in virtually every area of economic policy, including through over 90 technical assistance missions provided during 1993–2014 by FAD, LEG, MCM, STA, and the IMF Institute. In addition to short-term missions, the Fund has provided resident advisors to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, to the Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, to the ministry of finance, and a peripatetic expert to the Financial Supervision Agency. Other international agencies and governments, including the World Bank, EU TACIS, EBRD, UNDP, and OECD, also are providing a wide variety of technical assistance. The following list summarizes the technical assistance provided by the Fund to Kazakhstan since 2003.

Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Technical assistance has enabled steady progress in a number of areas related to monetary and exchange affairs, including banking legislation, central bank accounting, payments system reform, central bank organization and management, foreign operations and reserve management, banking supervision, monetary statistics, currency issuance, monetary operations, and money-market development.

  1. September 2004: Bringing banking prudential regulation up to EU standards.

  2. September 2004: Implementing inflation targeting: next steps.

  3. November 2007: Strengthening banking supervision and risk assessment.

  4. 2009-12: Developing banking sector stress testing. The initial mission in January 2009 was followed up by a number of visits by a peripatetic expert to the FSA over the course of 2009–12.

  5. November 2010: Reducing nonperforming loans in the banking system (joint with LEG).

  6. February 2013–14: Resolving banking system problem assets. Posting of a long-term expert (one year) to the Fund for Problem Loans, financed by the Japanese government (JSA).

Fiscal Affairs Department

The Fiscal Affairs Department has given advice to Kazakhstan in the areas of tax and expenditure administration, the establishment of a treasury system, public financial management, accounting reform, IT system functionality, and the introduction of a social safety net.

  1. April 2003: Customs administration.

  2. September 2004: Treasury reform process.

  3. 2011-14: Technical assistance provided by IMF regional advisor on Public Financial Management.

  4. May 2014: HQ-led PFM mission on fiscal risk management, IPSAS and accrual accounting.

Statistics

The Fund’s technical assistance program in statistics has focused on the development of the institutional framework appropriate to the needs of a market economy. The assistance has concentrated on establishing procedures for collecting and compiling monetary, government finance, balance of payments (including external trade), and national accounts.

  1. January 2006: Real sector and balance of payments statistics.

  2. August 2006: Real sector statistics.

  3. December 2006: ROSC Update mission (and DQAF).

  4. April 2008: GFSM 2001 implementation.

  5. January 2009: Monetary statistics.

  6. April 2011: BOP statistics.

  7. July 2013: Government Finance Statistics.

Legal Department

  1. April 2008: Reforms to tax law.

  2. April 2010: Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (jointly with the World Bank and United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime).

  3. November 2010: Reducing nonperforming loans in the banking system (joint with MCM).

  4. July 2011: Bankruptcy legislation.

IMF Institute

Kazakhstani officials have participated in courses in Washington and at the Vienna Institute in the areas of macroeconomic management, expenditure control, financial programming, taxation, statistics, and others. In addition, the IMF Institute has conducted courses in the region. Seminars and training sessions have also been conducted by MCM and STA technical assistance missions.

Resident representative

The position was terminated in August 2003, but the Fund maintains a local office in Almaty.

Relations with the World Bank

(As of May 15, 2014)

Kazakhstan became a member of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA) in July 1992 and a member of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in September 1993. In 2010 Kazakhstan became an IDA donor under the IDA16 replenishment. Kazakhstan is the largest client of the IFC in Central Asia.

IBRD in Kazakhstan

The Bank’s lending operations in Kazakhstan are aligned with the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for FY12-17, endorsed by the Board in May 2012. As of May 2014, the IBRD loan program comprised thirteen projects with a total commitment of US$3.7 billion, of which US$1.8 billion has been disbursed. While 90 percent of the commitments are concentrated in the on-going South-West roads project and the East-West roads project, the portfolio remains diverse with two-thirds of the projects focused on institutional building. The other eleven projects are: forest protection and reforestation, technology commercialization, customs development, tax administration reform, health sector technology transfer and institutional reform, technical and vocational education modernization, statistical capacity building, Ust-Kamenogorsk environmental remediation, Alma electricity transmission, second irrigation and drainage (signed in April 2014), and justice sector institutional strengthening (signed in April 2014).

The Bank also provides extensive advisory and analytical services (AAA) to the Government through the Joint Economic Research Program (JERP). The JERP is instrumental in providing policy analysis, strategic planning expertise, and good practice options to assist the Government with the reform agenda in the field of economic and social development and the institutional capacity of the Government to conduct economic and sectoral work. The JERP for FY14 amounted to over US$4.5 million and comprised 26 largely interrelated and programmatic activities focusing on the Government’s strategic priorities in competitiveness agenda (including counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy options, trade integration, investment climate improvement, management of innovations, and insolvency regime); public finance management and public services (including introduction of the result oriented budget, tax policy improvement, and reforming of housing and communal services); social modernization (including development of the framework for better human capital outcomes, improvement of social safety network, and bringing the quality education to international standards); and sustainable development (improving industrial competitiveness for greener production and disaster risk management).

IFC in Kazakhstan

In the context of the CPS for FY12-17, IFC’s role is to contribute to the government’s development plans by supporting the private sector to advance economic diversification and growth agenda, particularly in the non-extractive sectors and frontier regions. In the short term IFC is focusing on strengthening the financial sector, both in the context of the post-crisis recovery and as a prerequisite to pursue the diversification agenda, and infrastructure development, including through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). In the medium term more efforts will be dedicated to the establishment of best practices in international banking, improvement of the corporate governance and the regulatory environment, SMEs development, increasing investments in value-added manufacturing, agribusiness and services, and supporting the energy efficiency.

IFC’s investment program has been expanding in the context of the crisis response. It grew tenfold between FY05 and FY08 (to US$110 million) and nearly doubled again in FY09. In FY10, IFC invested a record US$336 million in five projects in the financial and agribusiness sectors, with vast majority provided to commercial banks. Post-crisis IFC’s investment level has moderated and averaged at about US$100 million per year in FY11-13. As of May 2014, Kazakhstan remains IFC’s largest client in Central Asia with total committed portfolio of US$246 million, of which US$245 million is outstanding. The investment portfolio is mostly concentrated in the financial sector, infrastructure, general manufacturing and consumer services, although IFC has begun making investments in the agribusiness sector as well.

Relations with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

(As of July 5, 2013)

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is the largest investor outside the oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan and in 2013 will celebrate its twentieth anniversary in the country. As of 30 June 2013, the EBRD’s total investments in Kazakhstan, including co-financing, stood at €12 billion, with the Bank’s own share totaling €4.8 billion (both these figures include approximately €1.3 billion in cumulative Trade Facilitation Program turnover). As of 30 June 2013, the EBRD’s portfolio in Kazakhstan amounted to €1.9 billion. During 2012, the EBRD signed 18 projects, including regional ones, for a total amount of EBRD finance €374 million. During the first half of 2013, the EBRD signed seven operations with a total annual bank investment of €155 million.

In its country strategy, approved in 2010, the EBRD aims to assist Kazakhstan in promoting economic diversification and moving towards a more sustainable model of financial development. The EBRD’s main operational objectives for 2013 are:

  • In the corporate sector, support investment in the manufacturing and the agribusiness sectors to address immediate financing needs, while promoting the modernization and diversification of the economy, best business and environmental practices, and energy efficiency.

  • In the financial sector, work with the Kazakhstani authorities and other IFIs to strengthen the country’s financial sector; re-engage with partner banks; expand the partner banks group; and assist the authorities with resolving the banks’ NPL problem and identifying and implementing policy reforms to promote de-dollarization, develop local capital markets, and increase the availability of sustainable local currency financing.

  • In the infrastructure sector, restructure the national railway company and support its energy-efficiency improvement program; improve the infrastructure in Kazakh municipalities; expand activities into the solid waste and district heating sectors and support municipal sector reform, including innovative methods for developing and financing projects in the water segment.

  • In the power and energy sector, support clean energy through the provision of financing to modern generating facilities, stemming losses in the distribution segment through rehabilitation of power lines and developing pilot renewable energy projects with private operators (subject to bankability and integrity).

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Note: * Including €1.3 billion in cumulative Trade Facilitation Program lines.

Relations with the Asian Development Bank

(As of 20 May 2014)

Kazakhstan became a member of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 1994. In the early years of transition from a centrally planned to a more market-driven economy, ADB focused on efforts to sustain a higher growth rate, promote environmental friendly development, support the private sector, and encourage regional integration.

As of 15 May 2014, cumulative public sector loan commitments to Kazakhstan amounted to almost US$3 billion, of which about US$1.8 billion has been disbursed. Commitments cover 25 public sector loan operations in agriculture and natural resources, education, finance, transport and communications, water supply and sanitation, irrigation, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These loans were complemented with 68 technical assistance (TA) projects amounting to about US$31.1 million. Kazakhstan is eligible for the ordinary capital resources (OCR) only. Kazakhstan became a donor to the Asian Development Fund, ADB’s concessional financing resource, with a US$5.49 million contribution in 2012.

ADB’s current country partnership strategy (CPS) to guide operations during 2012–16 aims to support economic diversification and increased competitiveness. The CPS envisages to support regional cooperation, private sector development and operations, inclusive growth, and knowledge solutions. ADB’s focus is in the transport, finance, urban, and energy sectors. As knowledge solutions are central to the new CPS, the government and ADB established a joint Knowledge and Experience Exchange Program (KEEP) in 2013. The KEEP commits the parties to a 50 percent cost-sharing arrangement with a total financing of US$2.5 million from 2013–15.

In the transport sector, ADB has been supporting Kazakhstan in realizing its transit potential and integration into the global transport network via two multitranche financing facilities (MFFs) totaling US$1.5 billion to improve road networks in two regions of Kazakhstan (Zhambyl and Mangystau), along the CAREC Transport Corridors 1 and 2. Six projects are under implementation with some sections completed and in use. Once fully completed, the projects will contribute to increased external trade and economic development. In 2010, ADB approved a US$500 million MFF for the SME Investment Program to enhance efficiency and competitiveness of the financial sector and SMEs. Tranche 1 in the amount of US$150 million was provided to the DAMU Entrepreneurship Development Fund for onlending to three participating financial institutions (PFIs), and was fully disbursed in April 2013. A subsequent tranche 2 amounting to US$150 million was approved in December 2013. Currency and interest rate risks are mitigated through local currency-denominated, fixed-rate loans.

In the energy sector, ADB is focusing on energy efficiency, and providing technical assistance on modernization of district heating networks and on institutional capacity development.

Knowledge partnerships were established through two major studies (one on Kazakhstan’s industrial policy, and the other on knowledge-based economy) to promote a constructive dialogue among high-level policy makers and share lessons and best practices of other developing member countries and advanced economies, with the aim of exploring appropriate future policy options and to improve planning strategies. At the sector level, advisory support is being provided for financing urban infrastructure in secondary cities.

Private sector operations of ADB in Kazakhstan began in 2006, with private sector financing to six entities in the financial and agribusiness sectors amounting to US$455.2 million approved to-date. Near-term ADB private sector financing prospects are in private infrastructure and energy sectors.

Kazakhstan was one of the four founding partners of the CAREC Program in 1997 (together with the People’s Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan). Since then, six other countries have joined the partnership, and CAREC-related investments in the partner countries have totaled US$22.4 billion, over the period 2001–13. Four of the six CAREC road and rail corridors traverse Kazakhstan, and developing these Central Asian corridors is a priority for achieving CAREC’s goal of land bridges connecting Europe and Asia. In October 2013, Kazakhstan hosted the twelfth CAREC Ministerial Conference in Astana which brought together the ministers of the 10 member countries to discuss the progress of CAREC. In May 2014, Kazakhstan hosted the ADB Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors. About 3,000 participants attended the event and discussed connectivity, innovation, and the need to keep up with the demands of a changing Asia and Pacific.

Statistical Issues

(As of May 27, 2014)

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Kazakhstan: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of May 27, 2014)

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discounts rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes, and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).

Reflects the assessment provided in the update of the data ROSC published in February 2008, based on the findings of the mission that took place during November 29-December 13, 2006 for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO); largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).

Same as footnote 8, except referring to international standards concerning (respectively) source data, assessment of source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs, and revision studies.