KEY ISSUESSetting: The seeds of good governance and prudent macroeconomic and naturalresources management planted by the Botswana authorities paid off with an impressive increase in the GDP per capita during the last three decades. However, as in many other small middle-income countries (SMICs) in the region, trend growth has softened in recent years, reflecting the decline in the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth which calls for policies to reduce structural bottlenecks in the economy.Current conditions and outlook: Botswana’s economy remains broadly internally and externally balanced and the authorities’ near-term macroeconomic policy mix is appropriate. Output growth is expected to slowdown in 2014 reflecting partly weaknesses in the non-mineral sector, while inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana’s (BoB) medium-term objective range of 3-6 percent.Fiscal policy: Staff supports the FY2014/15 budget, which reins in unproductive current spending, while protecting growth-promoting capital spending. Achieving medium-term fiscal consolidation objectives adopted in the budget, would require articulating concrete measures to reduce the wage bill relative to GDP and broaden the revenue base.Financial sector development: Botswana’s banking system is well-capitalized and profitable with relatively low nonperforming loans. Although from a low base, credit growth to households continues to expand at a high rate, which poses potential vulnerabilities for the financial sector. Thus, staff recommends that macro prudential measures be considered to temper the rate of growth of household borrowing. In this context, staff welcomes the government’s emphasis on enhancing greater financial deepening and inclusion, while preserving the stability of the financial system.Reinvigorating growth: Returning to an era of strong growth and accelerating Botswana’s convergence to higher income levels would require policies to reinvigorate TFP growth. These include improving the quality of public spending, notably in public investment projects and education to ensure the transformation of diamond wealth into sustainable assets. The authorities’ efforts to improve the country’s competitiveness, including through reducing the regulatory burden on firms, is also welcomed.Past advice: There is broad agreement between the Fund and the authorities on the macroeconomic policy stance and structural reform policy priorities. Consistent with staff’s advice, the FY 2014/15 budget outlined a framework to reduce the burden of loss- making state-owned enterprises on fiscal resources and propel them toward commercial viability. Furthermore, the budget includes medium-term projections of government accounts, as recommended by staff during past consultations. However, progress towards reducing the wage bill relative to GDP remains modest.

Abstract

KEY ISSUESSetting: The seeds of good governance and prudent macroeconomic and naturalresources management planted by the Botswana authorities paid off with an impressive increase in the GDP per capita during the last three decades. However, as in many other small middle-income countries (SMICs) in the region, trend growth has softened in recent years, reflecting the decline in the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth which calls for policies to reduce structural bottlenecks in the economy.Current conditions and outlook: Botswana’s economy remains broadly internally and externally balanced and the authorities’ near-term macroeconomic policy mix is appropriate. Output growth is expected to slowdown in 2014 reflecting partly weaknesses in the non-mineral sector, while inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana’s (BoB) medium-term objective range of 3-6 percent.Fiscal policy: Staff supports the FY2014/15 budget, which reins in unproductive current spending, while protecting growth-promoting capital spending. Achieving medium-term fiscal consolidation objectives adopted in the budget, would require articulating concrete measures to reduce the wage bill relative to GDP and broaden the revenue base.Financial sector development: Botswana’s banking system is well-capitalized and profitable with relatively low nonperforming loans. Although from a low base, credit growth to households continues to expand at a high rate, which poses potential vulnerabilities for the financial sector. Thus, staff recommends that macro prudential measures be considered to temper the rate of growth of household borrowing. In this context, staff welcomes the government’s emphasis on enhancing greater financial deepening and inclusion, while preserving the stability of the financial system.Reinvigorating growth: Returning to an era of strong growth and accelerating Botswana’s convergence to higher income levels would require policies to reinvigorate TFP growth. These include improving the quality of public spending, notably in public investment projects and education to ensure the transformation of diamond wealth into sustainable assets. The authorities’ efforts to improve the country’s competitiveness, including through reducing the regulatory burden on firms, is also welcomed.Past advice: There is broad agreement between the Fund and the authorities on the macroeconomic policy stance and structural reform policy priorities. Consistent with staff’s advice, the FY 2014/15 budget outlined a framework to reduce the burden of loss- making state-owned enterprises on fiscal resources and propel them toward commercial viability. Furthermore, the budget includes medium-term projections of government accounts, as recommended by staff during past consultations. However, progress towards reducing the wage bill relative to GDP remains modest.

Fund Relations

As of April 30, 2014

Membership Status

Joined July 24, 1968; Article VIII

General resources account

article image

SDR Department

article image

Outstanding Purchases and Loans None

Financial Arrangements None

Project Obligations to Fund None

Implementation of HIPC Initiative Not Applicable

Exchange Rate Arrangements

The exchange rate of the Botswana pula is a crawling peg arrangement against a basket of currencies. As of May 20, 2014, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the pula was US$1= P8.696, and that of the South African rand to the pula was R1=P0.837.

Botswana accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4 of the Fund’s Articles of Agreement, as of November 17, 1995, and maintains an exchange rate system free of restrictions in the making of transfers and payments of current account transactions.

Article IV consultation

Botswana is on a standard 12-month consultation cycle. The last Article IV consultation was concluded by the Executive Board on September 9, 2013.

Technical assistance

article image
article image

Joint World Bank and IMF Work Program

AS of April 30, 2014

article image

Statistical Issues

article image
article image
Table 1.

Botswana: Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of May 20, 2014)

article image

Daily (D), weekly (W), monthly (M), quarterly (Q), annually (A), irregular (I), and not available (NA).

Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC published on April 6, 2007, and based on the findings of the mission that took place from October 31 to November 13, 2006, for the data set corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning (respectively) concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O), largely observed (LO), largely not observed (LNO), not observed (NO), or not available (NA).

Same as footnote 2, except referring to international standards concerning (respectively) source data, assessment of source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs, and revision studies.

Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Both market-based and officially determined, including discount, money market, treasury bill, note, and bond rates.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.