Kingdom of Lesotho: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that since 2010, the Lesotho’s economy has performed well with the growth of real GDP averaging over 5 percent a year and inflation held to single-digit levels. International reserves have recovered to close to 5 months of import coverage after dipping to 3½ months of imports in 2012 in the wake of the balance of payments and fiscal crisis. The economic outlook for Lesotho is positive with strong economic growth and low inflation. Economic activity is expected to be supported by large public investment projects, including the second phase of Lesotho Highland Water Project.

Abstract

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that since 2010, the Lesotho’s economy has performed well with the growth of real GDP averaging over 5 percent a year and inflation held to single-digit levels. International reserves have recovered to close to 5 months of import coverage after dipping to 3½ months of imports in 2012 in the wake of the balance of payments and fiscal crisis. The economic outlook for Lesotho is positive with strong economic growth and low inflation. Economic activity is expected to be supported by large public investment projects, including the second phase of Lesotho Highland Water Project.

Recent Developments, Outlook and Risks

A. Economic Developments in 2010/11–2013/14

1. The Lesotho economy performed well in recent years, despite being hit by a severe balance of payments and fiscal shock and periods of adverse weather conditions for agriculture. Since fiscal year 2010/11 (April-March), real GDP growth averaged just over 5 percent a year—driven by large scale investments in the mining and water sectors—while annual inflation fluctuated between 3½ and 6 percent (Tables 1-6 and Figures 13). An ample stock of official international reserves, together with a large fiscal adjustment initiated in 2010/11, was critical to this positive outturn, as revenue from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU)—which is also Lesotho’s main source of foreign exchange—fell by more than half (to about 15 percent of GDP a year in 2010/11 and 2011/12). The Lesotho loti’s hard peg to the South African rand remained secure throughout this crisis, but a large share of international reserves was consumed in the process. Maintaining a relatively tight fiscal stance then allowed for a rapid replenishment of international reserves, when SACU revenues recovered in 2012/13. This adjustment effort was supported by the Fund with a three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), which was successfully concluded in September 2013 (Box 1).

Table 1.

Lesotho: Selected Economic Indicators, 2010/11–2019/20 1

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Sources: Lesotho authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections.

The fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31.

IMF Information Notice System trade-weighted; end of period. For 2013/14 it is the latest observation as of October 2013.

Reserve coverage of 5 months of imports is estimated as adequate for maintaining the exchange rate peg and providing a fiscal cushion to avoid abrupt adjustment. Reserves in excess of 5 months of imports constitute savings for future capital budget expenditure.

12-month time deposits rate. The 2013/14 interest rate is as of end-December 2013.

Excluding changes in inventories.

Excluding externally financed capital project.

Table 2.

Lesotho: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2010/11–2019/20 1

(Maloti millions)

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Sources: Lesotho authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections.

The fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31.

Other taxes are not shown in the table.

The remaining balances on non-Treasury accounts at the end of the fiscal year explain the bulk of the statistical discrepancy.

Core SACU revenue is set at 15 percent of GDP, close to the lowest historical level, far below the historical average (26 percent of GDP for the last 20 years).

Table 3.

Lesotho: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2010/11–2019/20 1

(Percent of GDP)

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Sources: Lesotho authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections.

The fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31.

Other taxes are not shown in the table.

The remaining balances on non-Treasury accounts at the end of the fiscal year explain the bulk of the statistical discrepancy.

Core SACU revenue is set at 15 percent of GDP, close to the lowest historical level, far below the historical average (26 percent of GDP for the last 20 years).

Table 4.

Lesotho: Monetary Accounts, 2010–15 1,2

(Maloti millions; unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Lesotho authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections.

The fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31.

Including valuation changes.

Table 5.

Lesotho: Balance of Payments, 2010/11–2019/20 1

(US$ millions; unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Lesotho authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections.

The fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31.

Including the SDR allocation in 2009.

Table 6.

Lesotho: Commercial Bank Performance Ratios, 2005–13

(As of end-December; percent)

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Source: Central Bank of Lesotho.