Abstract
This paper discusses Senegal’s Seventh Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria. GDP growth was lower than expected in 2013 but would increase to 4.9 percent in 2014 with a rebound in agriculture, mining, and industry. All quantitative assessment criteria and indicative targets for end-2013 were met, including on the budget deficit despite a significant revenue shortfall. Structural reform implementation has been slow, with many benchmarks met after their respective deadlines. Despite challenging prospects for 2014, the authorities intend to continue reducing the deficit. The IMF staff recommends completion of the seventh PSI review.
Background
1. Senegal’s total public debt and external debt ratios have both increased substantially over the past five years. The ratio of total public debt to GDP amounted to about 47 percent in 2013, up from around 25 percent in 2008. At the same time, the stock of total external public and publicly guaranteed debt has increased from around 20 percent of GDP in 2008 to around 32 percent at end-2013. These levels are close to those that prevailed before Senegal benefited from debt relief under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) in 2006. Debt-servicing costs have also increased, reflecting higher recourse to market financing. External public debt service has increased from 4.3 percent of exports in 2008 to about 9 percent in 2013.
Total External Debt, Central Government
Total External Debt, Central Government
| (Percent of GDP, as of end of year) | % of total | |||||||
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2013 | ||
| Total | 19.6 | 26.8 | 27.3 | 27.4 | 31.0 | 32.4 | 100.0 | |
| Multilateral creditors | 12.0 | 17.5 | 18.1 | 16.5 | 19.0 | 20.7 | 63.7 | |
| IDA/IBRD | 7.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 29.6 | |
| AfDB/AfDF | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 11.0 | |
| IMF | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 7.4 | |
| OFID/BADEA/IsDB | 1.7 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 8.0 | |
| EIB | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | |
| Others | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 6.8 | |
| Bilateral creditors | 7.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 26.2 | |
| OECD countries | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 10.1 | |
| Arab countries | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 6.1 | |
| Others | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 8.8 | |
| Commercial creditors | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 10.1 | |
| Memorandum Item | ||||||||
| Nominal GDP (CFAF billions) | 5994 | 6050 | 6395 | 6775 | 7165 | 7308 | ||
Total External Debt, Central Government
| (Percent of GDP, as of end of year) | % of total | |||||||
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2013 | ||
| Total | 19.6 | 26.8 | 27.3 | 27.4 | 31.0 | 32.4 | 100.0 | |
| Multilateral creditors | 12.0 | 17.5 | 18.1 | 16.5 | 19.0 | 20.7 | 63.7 | |
| IDA/IBRD | 7.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 29.6 | |
| AfDB/AfDF | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 11.0 | |
| IMF | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 7.4 | |
| OFID/BADEA/IsDB | 1.7 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 8.0 | |
| EIB | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | |
| Others | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 6.8 | |
| Bilateral creditors | 7.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 26.2 | |
| OECD countries | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 10.1 | |
| Arab countries | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 6.1 | |
| Others | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 8.8 | |
| Commercial creditors | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 10.1 | |
| Memorandum Item | ||||||||
| Nominal GDP (CFAF billions) | 5994 | 6050 | 6395 | 6775 | 7165 | 7308 | ||
2. In terms of composition, the bulk of Senegal’s debt remains largely external, and provided on concessional terms, but the use of financial market instruments is increasing.3 Most of the public debt is external (i.e., owed to non-residents of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, WAEMU), although the share of domestic debt to GDP has increased from 5.3 percent in 2008 to around 16 percent in 2013.4 Almost two thirds of Senegal’s external debt is owed to multilateral creditors—primarily the World Bank and the African Development Bank. The largest groups of bilateral creditors are the OECD and the Arab countries. The share of market debt is still relatively small, although it has grown rapidly over the past few years, with the issuance of two Eurobonds in 2009 and 2011, and the contracting of a syndicated loan
in 2013, which includes a tranche in euro targeting nonresidents. This is expected to be followed by a US$500 million Eurobond in mid-2014. Private external debt has averaged about 20 percent of GDP over the last decade and was estimated at about 36 percent of GDP at end-2013.5 About half of this debt was in the form of trade credits and bank deposits; the rest consisted of debt securities, loans, and other liabilities. This exposure was partly offset by private external assets amounting to 8 percent of GDP.
Borrowing Plan and Underlying Assumptions
3. The authorities have continued to strengthen their capacity to manage debt and assess project loans. Senegal has continued to record improvement in its sub-CPIA score, showing marked progress in debt management. A new public debt directorate has been created, combining units that previously managed domestic debt and external debt separately. In addition, Senegal’s first medium-term debt strategy was completed in the fall of 2012 and a second one is being finalized. Progress is underway to improve project appraisal and selection, in particular by developing capacity to conduct cost-benefit analysis. In light of these favorable developments, Senegal was upgraded to the “higher capacity” category during the 2013 assessment of macroeconomic and public financial management capacity (see Classification of Low-Income Countries for the Purpose of Debt Limits in Fund-Supported Programs).
4. This DSA is consistent with the macroeconomic framework outlined in the staff report. As in the June 2013 DSA, the baseline scenario assumes the implementation of sound macroeconomic and structural policies, leading to an increase in economic growth and a narrowing of fiscal deficits over the long term. Other notable features include:
Real GDP growth is expected to increase to slightly above 5 percent, as in the previous DSA. This assumes efficiency gains from reform implementation, which would allow total factor productivity (TFP) to resume growing. TFP declined in recent years, which affected growth performance.
Fiscal deficit. The overall fiscal deficit projections are broadly unchanged beyond 2014 and in line with the authorities’ commitment to meet the key WAEMU convergence criterion on the fiscal deficit.6
Current account deficit: The current account deficit is projected to narrow gradually from 10.8 percent in 2013 to 8 percent of GDP in 2018 and slightly further down in the long term. This would be driven by projected fiscal consolidation and by the strong dynamism of exports (mining in particular). Remittances are projected to remain significant as a share of GDP.
Inflation: it is expected to remain moderate, on average close to 2.0 percent.
Financing: The authorities are increasingly relying on external nonconcessional or semi-concessional borrowing to finance infrastructure projects, and this trend is expected to continue. They postponed a planned Eurobond issuance to 2014, following a sharp tightening of financial conditions on international markets in the course of 2013. The authorities now intend to issue a US$500 million Eurobond in mid-2014. Conditions have been relatively favorable in international markets in the past few months, and the authorities expect to get a much lower interest rate than on their 2011 Eurobond (whose yield is currently about 6 percent). Part of the proceeds would be used to repay the euro tranche of the syndicated loan contracted in 2013, which has a short maturity. The projections assume a rollover of the 2011 and 2014 bonds at maturity, as well as a moderate annual amount nonconcessional borrowing in the medium and long term. The authorities intend to continue relying on semi-concessional project financing (i.e. with a grant element above 15 percent) for infrastructure. As a result, the average grant element of new external borrowing is projected to decrease from about 20 percent to below 10 percent over the projection period, as Senegal gradually moves away from concessional borrowing toward nonconcessional borrowing.
Discount rate: A discount rate of 5 percent has been used for this DSA.7
Evolution of Selected Macroeconomic Indicators
Defined as the last 15 years of the projection period. For the current DSA, the long term covers the years 2020–2034; for the previous DSA, it covers 2019–2033.
Evolution of Selected Macroeconomic Indicators
| Long | ||||||
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | term 1/ | ||
| Real GDP growth | ||||||
| Current DSA | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.4 | |
| Previous DSA | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.3 | |
| Overall fiscal deficit (percent of GDP) | ||||||
| Current DSA | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.6 | |
| Previous DSA | 5.9 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | |
| Current account deficit (percent of GDP) | ||||||
| Current DSA | 10.8 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 7.6 | |
| Previous DSA | 10.3 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 7.6 | |
Defined as the last 15 years of the projection period. For the current DSA, the long term covers the years 2020–2034; for the previous DSA, it covers 2019–2033.
Evolution of Selected Macroeconomic Indicators
| Long | ||||||
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | term 1/ | ||
| Real GDP growth | ||||||
| Current DSA | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.4 | |
| Previous DSA | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.3 | |
| Overall fiscal deficit (percent of GDP) | ||||||
| Current DSA | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.6 | |
| Previous DSA | 5.9 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | |
| Current account deficit (percent of GDP) | ||||||
| Current DSA | 10.8 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 7.6 | |
| Previous DSA | 10.3 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 7.6 | |
Defined as the last 15 years of the projection period. For the current DSA, the long term covers the years 2020–2034; for the previous DSA, it covers 2019–2033.
External DSA
5. In Senegal, remittances are both high as a percentage of GDP and stable. Since 2000, they have grown every year with the exception of 2009, when they fell 6 percent. Over the period 2010–2012, remittances in Senegal averaged 52 percent of exports of goods and services and 13 percent of GDP. They have become an important and reliable source of foreign exchange in Senegal, a pattern that is expected to continue.8
6. Taking remittances into account, debt burden indicators remain well below their thresholds in the baseline scenario. The external PPG debt ratios remain below their respective thresholds even under the most extreme stress tests, with two exceptions. Two spikes in debt service reflect the assumption of the repayment of the Eurobonds at maturity, and lead to one-year breaches under the most extreme stress test (a 30 percent depreciation of the currency). There is also a small temporary breach of the threshold on the debt to GDP ratio under the most extreme stress test. These breaches disappear using the probability approach, which incorporates more country specific features for Senegal.9
Public DSA
7. Under the PSI baseline scenario, indicators of overall public debt (external plus domestic) do not show significant vulnerabilities. The PV of total public debt to GDP and the PV of total public debt to revenue remain gradually decrease over the projection period. The PV of public debt to GDP remains well below the benchmark level of 56 percent associated with heightened public debt vulnerabilities for medium performers. The authorities’ effort to increase maturities (from slightly over one year at the time of the previous DSA) should reduce exposure to rollover and interest rate risks in the context of financing from the regional market.
8. The public debt outlook would be much less favorable in the absence of fiscal consolidation (Table 2b). In a scenario that assumes an unchanged primary deficit (as a percent of GDP) over the entire projection period, the PV of public debt to GDP grows rapidly, quickly breaching the 56 percent benchmark level. The benchmark level is also breached in the “historical” scenario (holding real GDP growth and the primary deficit constant at their historical levels). While overall the risks remain low, these stress tests highlight the importance of continuing the fiscal effort and raising output growth.
Other Issues
9. Views of the authorities and assessment of Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE). The authorities broadly agreed with the staff’s assessment of debt sustainability using the PSI baseline scenario. They highlighted their recent fiscal consolidation efforts, pointing to actions taken to reduce the fiscal deficit in 2012–13 and further in 2014. Most of the discussion focused on the implications of the PSE for debt dynamics. Under the macroeconomic framework developed by the authorities for the PSE, the expected growth dividend from implementing the PSE is assumed to eventually offset the impact on debt ratios of higher fiscal deficits in the next few years (Figure 3). The authorities nevertheless acknowledged that fiscal consolidation and a cautious approach to nonconcessional borrowing were critical for safeguarding debt sustainability. Staff stressed that preserving debt sustainability under the PSE would depend on achieving a high growth dividend and implementing a comprehensive and ambitious reform of the state (to make room for investment and improve the efficiency of spending). In the absence of balance of payments projections consistent with the authorities’ PSE framework, the external debt impact of the PSE is not considered in this DSA.
Senegal: Indicators of Public Debt under Alternative Scenarios, 2014-2034
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, 177; 10.5089/9781498337779.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2024.2/ Authorities’ estimates before revisions to 2014 fiscal indicators based on PSI discussions.
Senegal: Indicators of Public Debt under Alternative Scenarios, 2014-2034
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, 177; 10.5089/9781498337779.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2024.2/ Authorities’ estimates before revisions to 2014 fiscal indicators based on PSI discussions.Senegal: Indicators of Public Debt under Alternative Scenarios, 2014-2034
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, 177; 10.5089/9781498337779.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2024.2/ Authorities’ estimates before revisions to 2014 fiscal indicators based on PSI discussions.10. Revised debt limits. The authorities and staff discussed the options for debt limits made available by Senegal’s recent reclassification as a “higher capacity” country under the debt limits policy. In light of the limited time remaining until the end of the current Fund-supported program, it was agreed to keep the current design for debt limits, while raising the existing ceilings as needed, in particular the one on semi-concessional borrowing to facilitate the financing of four high-return infrastructure projects (electricity and sanitation). These higher ceilings are taken into account in the present DSA.
Conclusion
11. In staff’s view, Senegal continues to face a low risk of debt distress. This assessment, however, hinges critically on a continued reduction of the fiscal deficit and a prudent shift towards less concessional financing.
Senegal: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under Alternative Scenarios, 2014–2034 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, 177; 10.5089/9781498337779.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2024. In figure b. it corresponds to a Combination shock; in c. to a Combination shock; in d. to a Combination shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shock
Senegal: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under Alternative Scenarios, 2014–2034 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, 177; 10.5089/9781498337779.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2024. In figure b. it corresponds to a Combination shock; in c. to a Combination shock; in d. to a Combination shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shockSenegal: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under Alternative Scenarios, 2014–2034 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, 177; 10.5089/9781498337779.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2024. In figure b. it corresponds to a Combination shock; in c. to a Combination shock; in d. to a Combination shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shock
Senegal: Probability of Debt Distress of Public and Publicly Guarantees External Debt under Alternative Scenarios, 2014–2034 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, 177; 10.5089/9781498337779.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2024. In figure b. it corresponds to a Combination shock; in c. to a Combination shock; in d. to a Combination shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shock
Senegal: Probability of Debt Distress of Public and Publicly Guarantees External Debt under Alternative Scenarios, 2014–2034 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, 177; 10.5089/9781498337779.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2024. In figure b. it corresponds to a Combination shock; in c. to a Combination shock; in d. to a Combination shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shockSenegal: Probability of Debt Distress of Public and Publicly Guarantees External Debt under Alternative Scenarios, 2014–2034 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, 177; 10.5089/9781498337779.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio on or before 2024. In figure b. it corresponds to a Combination shock; in c. to a Combination shock; in d. to a Combination shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shockSenegal: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2011-2034 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
Senegal: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2011-2034 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated
| Actual | Historical6/ Average | Standard 6/ Deviation | Projections | |||||||||||||||
| 2014-2019 | 2020-2034 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Average | 2024 | 2034 | Average | ||||||
| External debt (nominal) 1/ | 54.5 | 62.7 | 68.3 | 73.0 | 75.5 | 77.3 | 78.3 | 77.9 | 76.8 | 69.7 | 73.2 | |||||||
| of which: public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) | 29.4 | 31.0 | 32.4 | 35.6 | 36.1 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 35.8 | 35.6 | 32.6 | 27.4 | |||||||
| Change in external debt | 3.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | −0.3 | −1.1 | −2.7 | 0.8 | |||||||
| Identified net debt-creating flows | 0.8 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.8 | |||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit | 6.9 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 6.9 | ||||
| Deficit in balance of goods and services | 18.3 | 21.3 | 21.8 | 21.3 | 20.6 | 20.5 | 20.2 | 19.6 | 17.8 | 14.7 | 15.9 | |||||||
| Exports | 26.4 | 28.3 | 27.5 | 27.3 | 26.8 | 26.7 | 26.6 | 26.9 | 27.3 | 23.8 | 25.8 | |||||||
| Imports | 44.7 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 48.6 | 47.3 | 47.1 | 46.8 | 46.6 | 45.0 | 38.5 | 41.8 | |||||||
| Net current transfers (negative = inflow) | −12.3 | −12.5 | −12.6 | −10.9 | 2.1 | −12.4 | −12.8 | −12.8 | −12.7 | −12.6 | −11.9 | −8.7 | −8.3 | −8.7 | ||||
| of which: official | −0.9 | −1.0 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.5 | |||||||
| Other current account flows (negative = net inflow) | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Net FDI (negative = inflow) | -2.0 | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.8 | 0.6 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.1 | -2.1 | -2.1 | −2.1 | ||||
| Endogenous debt dynamics 2/ | -4.1 | 2.2 | -2.4 | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -2.7 | |||||||
| Contribution from nominal interest rate | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |||||||
| Contribution from real GDP growth | −0.8 | −1.9 | −2.1 | −3.1 | −3.3 | −3.5 | −3.6 | −3.7 | −3.8 | −3.6 | −3.7 | |||||||
| Contribution from price and exchange rate changes | −4.3 | 3.2 | −1.1 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| Residual (3-4) 3/ | 3.0 | -2.0 | 0.2 | -0.5 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -2.6 | -2.0 | -3.9 | -2.0 | −2.4 | ||||||
| of which: exceptional financing | −0.9 | −1.4 | −0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| PV of external debt 4/ | … | … | 60.2 | 66.1 | 68.2 | 69.9 | 70.7 | 70.4 | 69.5 | 63.4 | 68.7 | |||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 219.0 | 242.4 | 255.0 | 262.3 | 265.4 | 261.3 | 255.1 | 266.3 | 265.8 | |||||||
| PV of PPG external debt | … | … | 24.3 | 28.6 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.8 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 26.2 | 22.8 | |||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 88.3 | 104.9 | 107.9 | 108.5 | 107.9 | 105.1 | 103.9 | 110.2 | 88.3 | |||||||
| In percent of government revenues | … | … | 120.6 | 140.2 | 140.2 | 137.2 | 135.7 | 132.9 | 131.4 | 119.3 | 100.4 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 17.8 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 15.7 | 8.0 | |||||||
| PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 13.2 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 15.1 | 9.1 | |||||||
| PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | 17.2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 16.3 | 10.4 | |||||||
| Total gross financing need (Billions of U.S. dollars) | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 6.1 | |||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio | 3.1 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 6.8 | |||||||
| Key macroeconomic assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | |||
| GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent) | 9.3 | −5.5 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | |||
| Effective interest rate (percent) 5/ | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |||
| Growth of exports of G…S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 17.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 7.8 | |||
| Growth of imports of G…S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 23.2 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 11.9 | 17.2 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 7.6 | |||
| Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 8.8 | 21.5 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 22.3 | 22.5 | 19.7 | 17.6 | 12.3 | 16.7 | |||
| Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP) | 20.3 | 20.4 | 20.1 | 20.4 | 20.6 | 21.1 | 21.2 | 21.3 | 21.6 | 22.0 | 22.7 | 22.2 | ||||||
| Aid flows (in Billions of US dollars) 7/ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 3.1 | |||||||
| of which: Grants | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.7 | |||||||
| of which: Concessional loans | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | |||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 8/ | … | … | … | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | ||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 8/ | … | … | … | 34.8 | 53.8 | 54.5 | 54.9 | 56.7 | 57.2 | 46.9 | 45.8 | 50.7 | ||||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (Billions of US dollars) | 14.4 | 14.0 | 14.8 | 16.2 | 17.7 | 19.3 | 21.1 | 23.0 | 24.8 | 36.5 | 80.4 | |||||||
| Nominal dollar GDP growth | 11.1 | −2.3 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 | |||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in Billions of US dollars) | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 18.3 | |||||||||
| (PVt-PVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent) | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | |||||||||
| Gross workers’ remittances (Billions of US dollars) | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 7.2 | |||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in percent of GDP + remittances) | … | … | 21.3 | 25.1 | 25.3 | 25.3 | 25.2 | 24.8 | 25.0 | 24.0 | 20.9 | |||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittances) | … | … | 58.2 | 69.7 | 70.6 | 70.9 | 70.6 | 69.1 | 70.1 | 79.0 | 65.4 | |||||||
| Debt service of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittance | … | … | 4.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 10.8 | 6.8 | |||||||
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
Senegal: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2011-2034 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated
| Actual | Historical6/ Average | Standard 6/ Deviation | Projections | |||||||||||||||
| 2014-2019 | 2020-2034 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Average | 2024 | 2034 | Average | ||||||
| External debt (nominal) 1/ | 54.5 | 62.7 | 68.3 | 73.0 | 75.5 | 77.3 | 78.3 | 77.9 | 76.8 | 69.7 | 73.2 | |||||||
| of which: public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) | 29.4 | 31.0 | 32.4 | 35.6 | 36.1 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 35.8 | 35.6 | 32.6 | 27.4 | |||||||
| Change in external debt | 3.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | −0.3 | −1.1 | −2.7 | 0.8 | |||||||
| Identified net debt-creating flows | 0.8 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.8 | |||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit | 6.9 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 6.9 | ||||
| Deficit in balance of goods and services | 18.3 | 21.3 | 21.8 | 21.3 | 20.6 | 20.5 | 20.2 | 19.6 | 17.8 | 14.7 | 15.9 | |||||||
| Exports | 26.4 | 28.3 | 27.5 | 27.3 | 26.8 | 26.7 | 26.6 | 26.9 | 27.3 | 23.8 | 25.8 | |||||||
| Imports | 44.7 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 48.6 | 47.3 | 47.1 | 46.8 | 46.6 | 45.0 | 38.5 | 41.8 | |||||||
| Net current transfers (negative = inflow) | −12.3 | −12.5 | −12.6 | −10.9 | 2.1 | −12.4 | −12.8 | −12.8 | −12.7 | −12.6 | −11.9 | −8.7 | −8.3 | −8.7 | ||||
| of which: official | −0.9 | −1.0 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.5 | |||||||
| Other current account flows (negative = net inflow) | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Net FDI (negative = inflow) | -2.0 | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.8 | 0.6 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.1 | -2.1 | -2.1 | −2.1 | ||||
| Endogenous debt dynamics 2/ | -4.1 | 2.2 | -2.4 | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -2.7 | |||||||
| Contribution from nominal interest rate | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |||||||
| Contribution from real GDP growth | −0.8 | −1.9 | −2.1 | −3.1 | −3.3 | −3.5 | −3.6 | −3.7 | −3.8 | −3.6 | −3.7 | |||||||
| Contribution from price and exchange rate changes | −4.3 | 3.2 | −1.1 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| Residual (3-4) 3/ | 3.0 | -2.0 | 0.2 | -0.5 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -2.6 | -2.0 | -3.9 | -2.0 | −2.4 | ||||||
| of which: exceptional financing | −0.9 | −1.4 | −0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| PV of external debt 4/ | … | … | 60.2 | 66.1 | 68.2 | 69.9 | 70.7 | 70.4 | 69.5 | 63.4 | 68.7 | |||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 219.0 | 242.4 | 255.0 | 262.3 | 265.4 | 261.3 | 255.1 | 266.3 | 265.8 | |||||||
| PV of PPG external debt | … | … | 24.3 | 28.6 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.8 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 26.2 | 22.8 | |||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 88.3 | 104.9 | 107.9 | 108.5 | 107.9 | 105.1 | 103.9 | 110.2 | 88.3 | |||||||
| In percent of government revenues | … | … | 120.6 | 140.2 | 140.2 | 137.2 | 135.7 | 132.9 | 131.4 | 119.3 | 100.4 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 17.8 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 15.7 | 8.0 | |||||||
| PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 13.2 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 15.1 | 9.1 | |||||||
| PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | 17.2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 16.3 | 10.4 | |||||||
| Total gross financing need (Billions of U.S. dollars) | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 6.1 | |||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio | 3.1 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 6.8 | |||||||
| Key macroeconomic assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | |||
| GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent) | 9.3 | −5.5 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | |||
| Effective interest rate (percent) 5/ | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |||
| Growth of exports of G…S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 17.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 7.8 | |||
| Growth of imports of G…S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 23.2 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 11.9 | 17.2 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 7.6 | |||
| Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 8.8 | 21.5 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 22.3 | 22.5 | 19.7 | 17.6 | 12.3 | 16.7 | |||
| Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP) | 20.3 | 20.4 | 20.1 | 20.4 | 20.6 | 21.1 | 21.2 | 21.3 | 21.6 | 22.0 | 22.7 | 22.2 | ||||||
| Aid flows (in Billions of US dollars) 7/ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 3.1 | |||||||
| of which: Grants | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.7 | |||||||
| of which: Concessional loans | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | |||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 8/ | … | … | … | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | ||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 8/ | … | … | … | 34.8 | 53.8 | 54.5 | 54.9 | 56.7 | 57.2 | 46.9 | 45.8 | 50.7 | ||||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (Billions of US dollars) | 14.4 | 14.0 | 14.8 | 16.2 | 17.7 | 19.3 | 21.1 | 23.0 | 24.8 | 36.5 | 80.4 | |||||||
| Nominal dollar GDP growth | 11.1 | −2.3 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 | |||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in Billions of US dollars) | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 18.3 | |||||||||
| (PVt-PVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent) | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | |||||||||
| Gross workers’ remittances (Billions of US dollars) | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 7.2 | |||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in percent of GDP + remittances) | … | … | 21.3 | 25.1 | 25.3 | 25.3 | 25.2 | 24.8 | 25.0 | 24.0 | 20.9 | |||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittances) | … | … | 58.2 | 69.7 | 70.6 | 70.9 | 70.6 | 69.1 | 70.1 | 79.0 | 65.4 | |||||||
| Debt service of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittance | … | … | 4.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 10.8 | 6.8 | |||||||
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
Senegal: Public Sector Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2011-2034
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
[Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.]
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Senegal: Public Sector Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2011-2034
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Actual | Estimate | Projections | ||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Average5/ | Standard 5/ Deviation | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2014-19 Average | 2024 | 2034 | 2020-34 Average | ||||
| Public sector debt1/ | 40.7 | 43.4 | 46.8 | 50.0 | 50.3 | 50.4 | 50.4 | 50.4 | 50.3 | 45.4 | 36.1 | |||||||
| of which: foreign-currency denominated | 29.4 | 31.0 | 32.4 | 35.6 | 36.1 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 35.8 | 35.6 | 32.6 | 27.4 | |||||||
| Change in public sector debt | 5.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | −0.7 | |||||||
| Identified debt-creating flows | 4.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.5 | −1.2 | −0.7 | |||||||
| Primary deficit | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | |||
| Revenue and grants | 22.5 | 23.3 | 22.7 | 23.2 | 23.4 | 23.9 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.2 | 24.4 | 24.8 | |||||||
| of which: grants | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | |||||||
| Primary (noninterest) expenditure | 27.7 | 27.7 | 26.6 | 26.5 | 25.7 | 25.8 | 25.6 | 25.5 | 25.4 | 25.2 | 25.5 | |||||||
| Automatic debt dynamics | −0.3 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −1.3 | −2.4 | −2.3 | −2.4 | −2.3 | −1.7 | −1.9 | −1.5 | |||||||
| Contribution from interest rate/growth differential | −0.4 | −0.7 | 0.7 | −1.1 | −1.8 | −1.8 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −1.5 | |||||||
| of which: contribution from average reat interest rate | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | |||||||
| of which: contribution from reat GDP growth | −0.6 | −1.3 | −1.5 | −2.2 | −2.4 | −2.4 | −2.5 | −2.5 | −2.5 | −2.4 | −1.9 | |||||||
| Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation | 0.1 | 0.1 | −1.3 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.5 | 0.2 | … | … | |||||||
| Other identified debt-creating flows | 0.0 | −0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Privatization receipts (negative) | 0.0 | −0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Debt relief (HIPC and other) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Residual, including asset changes | 0.3 | −0.5 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Of which : asset changes | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Other Sustainability Indicators | ||||||||||||||||||
| PV of public sector debt | … | … | 38.7 | 43.0 | 43.0 | 43.0 | 42.9 | 42.8 | 43.0 | 39.0 | 31.5 | |||||||
| of which: foreign-currency denominated | … | … | 24.3 | 28.6 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.8 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 26.2 | 22.8 | |||||||
| of which: external | … | … | 24.3 | 28.6 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.8 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 26.2 | 22.8 | |||||||
| PV of contingent liabilities (not included in public sector debt) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| Gross financing need 2/ | 12.3 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 5.6 | |||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) | … | … | 170.5 | 185.5 | 183.5 | 179.9 | 179.1 | 178.4 | 177.6 | 159.6 | 127.2 | |||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | … | … | 192.2 | 211.1 | 209.0 | 203.8 | 202.4 | 201.2 | 199.6 | 177.3 | 138.7 | |||||||
| of which: externat 3/ | … | … | 120.6 | 140.2 | 140.2 | 137.2 | 135.7 | 132.9 | 131.4 | 119.3 | 100.4 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) 4/ | 19.9 | 16.4 | 17.0 | 21.6 | 31.7 | 28.7 | 27.1 | 30.9 | 25.9 | 30.1 | 17.4 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 4/ | 22.1 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 24.6 | 36.1 | 32.5 | 30.7 | 34.8 | 29.2 | 33.4 | 19.0 | |||||||
| Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | |||||||
| Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | |||
| Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.0 | |||
| Average real interest rate on domestic debt (in percent) | 3.7 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.7’ | 3.0 | |||
| Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation | 0.3 | 0.5 | −4.3 | −0.8 | 8.5 | −0.7 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) | 4.2 | 2.3 | −1.4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | |||
| Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percer | 7.9 | 3.2 | −0.4 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | |||
| Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 8.8 | 21.5 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 22.3 | 22.5 | 19.7 | 17.6 | 12.3 | … | |||
[Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.]
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Senegal: Public Sector Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2011-2034
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Actual | Estimate | Projections | ||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Average5/ | Standard 5/ Deviation | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2014-19 Average | 2024 | 2034 | 2020-34 Average | ||||
| Public sector debt1/ | 40.7 | 43.4 | 46.8 | 50.0 | 50.3 | 50.4 | 50.4 | 50.4 | 50.3 | 45.4 | 36.1 | |||||||
| of which: foreign-currency denominated | 29.4 | 31.0 | 32.4 | 35.6 | 36.1 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 35.8 | 35.6 | 32.6 | 27.4 | |||||||
| Change in public sector debt | 5.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | −0.7 | |||||||
| Identified debt-creating flows | 4.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.5 | −1.2 | −0.7 | |||||||
| Primary deficit | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | |||
| Revenue and grants | 22.5 | 23.3 | 22.7 | 23.2 | 23.4 | 23.9 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.2 | 24.4 | 24.8 | |||||||
| of which: grants | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | |||||||
| Primary (noninterest) expenditure | 27.7 | 27.7 | 26.6 | 26.5 | 25.7 | 25.8 | 25.6 | 25.5 | 25.4 | 25.2 | 25.5 | |||||||
| Automatic debt dynamics | −0.3 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −1.3 | −2.4 | −2.3 | −2.4 | −2.3 | −1.7 | −1.9 | −1.5 | |||||||
| Contribution from interest rate/growth differential | −0.4 | −0.7 | 0.7 | −1.1 | −1.8 | −1.8 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −1.9 | −1.5 | |||||||
| of which: contribution from average reat interest rate | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | |||||||
| of which: contribution from reat GDP growth | −0.6 | −1.3 | −1.5 | −2.2 | −2.4 | −2.4 | −2.5 | −2.5 | −2.5 | −2.4 | −1.9 | |||||||
| Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation | 0.1 | 0.1 | −1.3 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.5 | 0.2 | … | … | |||||||
| Other identified debt-creating flows | 0.0 | −0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Privatization receipts (negative) | 0.0 | −0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Debt relief (HIPC and other) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Residual, including asset changes | 0.3 | −0.5 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Of which : asset changes | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Other Sustainability Indicators | ||||||||||||||||||
| PV of public sector debt | … | … | 38.7 | 43.0 | 43.0 | 43.0 | 42.9 | 42.8 | 43.0 | 39.0 | 31.5 | |||||||
| of which: foreign-currency denominated | … | … | 24.3 | 28.6 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.8 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 26.2 | 22.8 | |||||||
| of which: external | … | … | 24.3 | 28.6 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.8 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 26.2 | 22.8 | |||||||
| PV of contingent liabilities (not included in public sector debt) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| Gross financing need 2/ | 12.3 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 5.6 | |||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) | … | … | 170.5 | 185.5 | 183.5 | 179.9 | 179.1 | 178.4 | 177.6 | 159.6 | 127.2 | |||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | … | … | 192.2 | 211.1 | 209.0 | 203.8 | 202.4 | 201.2 | 199.6 | 177.3 | 138.7 | |||||||
| of which: externat 3/ | … | … | 120.6 | 140.2 | 140.2 | 137.2 | 135.7 | 132.9 | 131.4 | 119.3 | 100.4 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) 4/ | 19.9 | 16.4 | 17.0 | 21.6 | 31.7 | 28.7 | 27.1 | 30.9 | 25.9 | 30.1 | 17.4 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 4/ | 22.1 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 24.6 | 36.1 | 32.5 | 30.7 | 34.8 | 29.2 | 33.4 | 19.0 | |||||||
| Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | |||||||
| Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | |||
| Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.0 | |||
| Average real interest rate on domestic debt (in percent) | 3.7 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.7’ | 3.0 | |||
| Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation | 0.3 | 0.5 | −4.3 | −0.8 | 8.5 | −0.7 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) | 4.2 | 2.3 | −1.4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | |||
| Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percer | 7.9 | 3.2 | −0.4 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | |||
| Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 8.8 | 21.5 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 22.3 | 22.5 | 19.7 | 17.6 | 12.3 | … | |||
[Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.]
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Senegal: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2014-2034
(In Percent)
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assui an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Senegal: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2014-2034
(In Percent)
| Projections | ||||||||
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2024 | 2034 | |
| PV of debt-to-GDP+remittances ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 21 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2014–2034 1/ | 25 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 30 | 35 | 33 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2014–2034 2 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 31 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 22 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 3/ | 25 | 27 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 21 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 24 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 4/ | 25 | 30 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 28 | 22 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 25 | 31 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 35 | 32 | 24 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2015 5/ | 25 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 28 |
| PV of debt-to-exports+remittances ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 70 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 69 | 70 | 79 | 65 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2014–2034 1/ | 70 | 72 | 73 | 75 | 76 | 82 | 115 | 102 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2014–2034 2 | 70 | 74 | 76 | 77 | 77 | 79 | 99 | 96 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 70 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 70 | 70 | 79 | 65 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 3/ | 70 | 80 | 96 | 95 | 93 | 94 | 102 | 77 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 70 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 70 | 70 | 79 | 65 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 4/ | 70 | 90 | 101 | 89 | 87 | 87 | 93 | 67 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 70 | 90 | 109 | 95 | 92 | 93 | 99 | 70 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2015 5/ | 70 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 70 | 70 | 79 | 65 |
| PV of debt-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 140 | 140 | 137 | 136 | 133 | 131 | 119 | 100 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2014–2034 1/ | 140 | 143 | 142 | 145 | 148 | 156 | 174 | 157 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2014–2034 2 | 140 | 147 | 147 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 147 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 140 | 145 | 145 | 144 | 141 | 138 | 126 | 106 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 3/ | 140 | 150 | 165 | 162 | 158 | 155 | 136 | 103 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 140 | 152 | 160 | 159 | 155 | 153 | 138 | 117 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 4/ | 140 | 160 | 175 | 172 | 167 | 163 | 141 | 104 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 140 | 170 | 204 | 200 | 194 | 190 | 162 | 116 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2015 5/ | 140 | 198 | 194 | 192 | 188 | 185 | 168 | 141 |
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assui an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Senegal: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2014-2034
(In Percent)
| Projections | ||||||||
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2024 | 2034 | |
| PV of debt-to-GDP+remittances ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 21 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2014–2034 1/ | 25 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 30 | 35 | 33 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2014–2034 2 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 31 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 22 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 3/ | 25 | 27 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 21 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 24 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 4/ | 25 | 30 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 28 | 22 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 25 | 31 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 35 | 32 | 24 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2015 5/ | 25 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 28 |
| PV of debt-to-exports+remittances ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 70 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 69 | 70 | 79 | 65 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2014–2034 1/ | 70 | 72 | 73 | 75 | 76 | 82 | 115 | 102 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2014–2034 2 | 70 | 74 | 76 | 77 | 77 | 79 | 99 | 96 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 70 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 70 | 70 | 79 | 65 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 3/ | 70 | 80 | 96 | 95 | 93 | 94 | 102 | 77 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 70 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 70 | 70 | 79 | 65 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 4/ | 70 | 90 | 101 | 89 | 87 | 87 | 93 | 67 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 70 | 90 | 109 | 95 | 92 | 93 | 99 | 70 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2015 5/ | 70 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 70 | 70 | 79 | 65 |
| PV of debt-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 140 | 140 | 137 | 136 | 133 | 131 | 119 | 100 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2014–2034 1/ | 140 | 143 | 142 | 145 | 148 | 156 | 174 | 157 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2014–2034 2 | 140 | 147 | 147 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 147 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 140 | 145 | 145 | 144 | 141 | 138 | 126 | 106 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 3/ | 140 | 150 | 165 | 162 | 158 | 155 | 136 | 103 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 140 | 152 | 160 | 159 | 155 | 153 | 138 | 117 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 4/ | 140 | 160 | 175 | 172 | 167 | 163 | 141 | 104 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 140 | 170 | 204 | 200 | 194 | 190 | 162 | 116 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2015 5/ | 140 | 198 | 194 | 192 | 188 | 185 | 168 | 141 |
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assui an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Senegal: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2014-2034 (continued)
(In Percent)
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assui an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Senegal: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2014-2034 (continued)
(In Percent)
| Debt service-to-exports+remittances ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2014–2034 1/ | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 10 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2014–2034 2 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 3/ | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 8 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 4/ | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 7 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2015 5/ | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 13 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2014–2034 1/ | 13 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 16 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2014–2034 2 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 11 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 3/ | 13 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 11 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 19 | 12 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 4/ | 13 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 19 | 11 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 13 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 22 | 13 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2015 5/ | 13 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 23 | 15 |
| Memorandum item: | ||||||||
| Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/ | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assui an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Senegal: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2014-2034 (continued)
(In Percent)
| Debt service-to-exports+remittances ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2014–2034 1/ | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 10 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2014–2034 2 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 3/ | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 8 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 4/ | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 7 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2015 5/ | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 13 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2014–2034 1/ | 13 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 16 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2014–2034 2 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 11 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 3/ | 13 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 11 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 19 | 12 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2015–2016 4/ | 13 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 19 | 11 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 13 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 22 | 13 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2015 5/ | 13 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 23 | 15 |
| Memorandum item: | ||||||||
| Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/ | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assui an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Senegal: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2014-2034
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Authorities’ estimates before revisions to 2014 fiscal indicators based on PSI discussions.
Senegal: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2014-2034
| Projections | ||||||||
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2024 | 2034 | |
| PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 39 | 31 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 43 | 45 | 47 | 49 | 52 | 55 | 65 | 81 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2014 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 48 | 50 | 54 | 60 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 43 | 43 | 43 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 43 | 43 |
| Authorities’ PSE framework 3/ | 40 | 42 | 46 | 49 | 53 | 50 | 41 | 34 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2015–2016 | 43 | 45 | 47 | 48 | 48 | 49 | 49 | 47 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2015–2016 | 43 | 45 | 48 | 48 | 47 | 47 | 43 | 34 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 43 | 46 | 49 | 49 | 50 | 50 | 49 | 44 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2015 | 43 | 54 | 53 | 52 | 52 | 51 | 46 | 38 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2015 | 43 | 52 | 52 | 51 | 51 | 50 | 45 | 35 |
| PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 186 | 183 | 180 | 179 | 178 | 178 | 160 | 127 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 186 | 191 | 196 | 205 | 214 | 225 | 262 | 318 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2014 | 186 | 187 | 189 | 194 | 199 | 205 | 223 | 244 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 186 | 184 | 181 | 182 | 182 | 183 | 175 | 174 |
| Authorities’ PSE framework 3/ | 180 | 187 | 199 | 214 | 231 | 216 | 180 | 150 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2015–2016 | 186 | 190 | 194 | 197 | 200 | 203 | 200 | 190 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2015–2016 | 186 | 194 | 201 | 199 | 197 | 196 | 174 | 136 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 186 | 194 | 203 | 204 | 205 | 207 | 198 | 179 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2015 | 186 | 231 | 223 | 218 | 215 | 212 | 188 | 154 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2015 | 186 | 222 | 216 | 213 | 210 | 208 | 185 | 143 |
| Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 22 | 32 | 29 | 27 | 31 | 26 | 30 | 17 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 22 | 32 | 30 | 30 | 35 | 31 | 42 | 40 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2014 | 22 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 33 | 29 | 36 | 31 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 22 | 32 | 29 | 27 | 31 | 27 | 32 | 22 |
| Authorities’ PSE framework 3/ | 23 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 16 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2015–2016 | 22 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 34 | 29 | 35 | 25 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2015–2016 | 22 | 32 | 29 | 30 | 35 | 27 | 32 | 19 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 22 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 35 | 29 | 34 | 24 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2015 | 22 | 33 | 32 | 30 | 35 | 31 | 39 | 27 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2015 | 22 | 32 | 30 | 38 | 33 | 29 | 33 | 20 |
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Authorities’ estimates before revisions to 2014 fiscal indicators based on PSI discussions.
Senegal: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2014-2034
| Projections | ||||||||
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2024 | 2034 | |
| PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 39 | 31 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 43 | 45 | 47 | 49 | 52 | 55 | 65 | 81 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2014 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 48 | 50 | 54 | 60 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 43 | 43 | 43 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 43 | 43 |
| Authorities’ PSE framework 3/ | 40 | 42 | 46 | 49 | 53 | 50 | 41 | 34 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2015–2016 | 43 | 45 | 47 | 48 | 48 | 49 | 49 | 47 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2015–2016 | 43 | 45 | 48 | 48 | 47 | 47 | 43 | 34 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 43 | 46 | 49 | 49 | 50 | 50 | 49 | 44 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2015 | 43 | 54 | 53 | 52 | 52 | 51 | 46 | 38 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2015 | 43 | 52 | 52 | 51 | 51 | 50 | 45 | 35 |
| PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 186 | 183 | 180 | 179 | 178 | 178 | 160 | 127 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 186 | 191 | 196 | 205 | 214 | 225 | 262 | 318 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2014 | 186 | 187 | 189 | 194 | 199 | 205 | 223 | 244 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 186 | 184 | 181 | 182 | 182 | 183 | 175 | 174 |
| Authorities’ PSE framework 3/ | 180 | 187 | 199 | 214 | 231 | 216 | 180 | 150 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2015–2016 | 186 | 190 | 194 | 197 | 200 | 203 | 200 | 190 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2015–2016 | 186 | 194 | 201 | 199 | 197 | 196 | 174 | 136 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 186 | 194 | 203 | 204 | 205 | 207 | 198 | 179 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2015 | 186 | 231 | 223 | 218 | 215 | 212 | ||