Jordan: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation, Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Applicability of Performance Criteria

This paper focuses on Jordan’s 2014 Article IV Consultation, Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion (PC) and Applicability of PCs. The program is broadly on track and, looking forward, will focus on deep tax reform. All end-2013 targets were met. The central government is expected to meet its end-March 2014 target, but the combined public sector deficit will be missed because of temporary shortfalls in gas delivery from Egypt. International reserves have continued to over-perform through March. The IMF staff supports the completion of the third and fourth reviews.

Abstract

This paper focuses on Jordan’s 2014 Article IV Consultation, Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion (PC) and Applicability of PCs. The program is broadly on track and, looking forward, will focus on deep tax reform. All end-2013 targets were met. The central government is expected to meet its end-March 2014 target, but the combined public sector deficit will be missed because of temporary shortfalls in gas delivery from Egypt. International reserves have continued to over-perform through March. The IMF staff supports the completion of the third and fourth reviews.

Background

A. Strong Headwinds

A Difficult Environment

1. Jordan faces issues of a political transition. A new election law paved the way to parliamentary elections in January 2013, which were peaceful though boycotted by the Muslim Brotherhood which viewed the changes as too incremental. Public protests have subsided in the last year, but the relationship between parliament and government has become more contentious and the opposition more vocal, including on corruption and political rights.

2. Regional instability deeply affected the country. While slowing since mid-2013, the number of officially registered Syrian refugees has increased steadily over the last two years, amounting now to about 9 percent of Jordan’s population. In addition to macroeconomic implications (Box 1), this has triggered changes in the social landscape and the provision of public services has suffered. It could also worsen the already poor unemployment and poverty situation. Moreover, gas inflows from Egypt have repeatedly come to a halt, most recently at end-January, owing to sabotages of the pipeline.

3. Policies were appropriately adjusted to cope with shocks. During 2012, they were focused on crisis management and, after confidence had come back at year-end, turned toward medium-term consolidation. The authorities have followed the recommendations of the 2012 Article IV in the context of the stand-by arrangement, which was approved on August 3, 2012, though progress on the structural front has been slow.

Economy Slowly Picking Up

4. Economic activity has been gradually recovering. Following a period of strong growth during 2000–09 (averaging about 6½ percent), growth dropped sharply to 2.3 percent in 2010, largely due to the global downturn. Since then, it has picked up marginally to 2.8 percent year-on-year through September 2013. In the last two years, measured growth was hurt by shocks, including the Syria conflict (which, together with the losses of the public electricity company NEPCO, added some 5–6 percent of GDP to the fiscal and external accounts in each of 2012 and 2013, requiring significant policy tightening). The ensuing unavoidable fiscal adjustment and a sharp contraction in mining (from industrial action in 2012 and difficulties in renegotiating contracts following the break-up of the international fertilizer cartel in mid-2013) have also played a role. Services (especially communication and finance) and construction have been the drivers of growth.

5. The labor market has stayed weak. Employment increased by just over one percent from 2011 to 2013, substantially less than the working-age population (which rose by 6 percent over the same period). As a result, the employment-to-working age population ratio continued to decline, to 32 percent in 2013. Nonetheless, the annual unemployment rate remained broadly stable, owing to a further drop in labor force participation. Gender disparities have persisted, with 54 percent of men, but only 10 percent of women of working age being formally employed in 2013.

A01ufig01

Labor Market Outcomes

(In percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, 152; 10.5089/9781498395137.002.A001

Sources: Jordanian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

6. Despite subdued headline inflation, core inflation has increased. Demand pressures from an expanded population have contributed to a gradual increase in core inflation to over 4 percent y-o-y in February 2014. Nonetheless, headline inflation—after temporarily increasing to more than 7 percent in early 2013 on account of rising food prices and the liberalization of fuel prices in November 2012—has begun to decline, reaching 3.1 percent y-o-y in February.

A01ufig02

CPI Inflation

(In percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, 152; 10.5089/9781498395137.002.A001

Sources: Jordanian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

7. The current account deficit has started to narrow. It peaked in 2012, reflecting a number of factors, including higher energy prices coupled with disruptions to the flow of natural gas from Egypt, lower grants, and poorer export performance brought about by lower potash prices and strikes. While mining difficulties persisted and pressures on non-energy imports intensified with rising numbers of Syrian refugees in 2013, the current account is estimated to have improved last year by over 5 percent of GDP, helped by lower energy imports (related to the energy mix and lower prices), higher current transfers (related to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) grants), and private receipts.

A01ufig03

Eurobond Spread, EMBIG, and Amman Stock Exchange Index

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2014, 152; 10.5089/9781498395137.002.A001

Source: Bloomberg.

8. Financial markets have recovered. After a peak in mid-2012, Eurobond spreads have declined steadily in 2013 to 317 basis points (bps) at year-end and have showed so far a limited response to the spike in volatility in emerging markets (EMs). The Amman Stock Exchange was stable until a steep drop in mid-2013, mainly in mining sector shares; since then, the market recovered to pre-2012 levels. At the same time, banks’ financial soundness indicators (FSIs) have largely reversed the deterioration that occurred in 2008–09 (see Table 5).

Table 1.

Jordan: Selected Economic Indicators and Macroeconomic Outlook, 2012–19

article image
Sources: Jordanian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Includes net lending, transfer to NEPCO, and other use of cash.

Defined as the sum of the primary central government deficit (excl. grants and transfers to NEPCO and WAJ) and NEPCO loss.

Includes NEPCO debt.

Table 2a.

Jordan: Central Government: Summary of Fiscal Operations, 2012–19

(In millions of Jordanian dinars)

article image
Sources: Jordanian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

For 2013–14, transfers to NEPCO and WAJ include government repayment of guaranteed debt. From 2015 onwards, the program assumes the utilities will repay their own debt.

Table 2b.

Jordan: Central Government: Summary of Fiscal Operations, 2012–19

(In percent of GDP)

article image
Sources: Jordanian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

For 2013–14, transfers to NEPCO and WAJ include government repayment of guaranteed debt. From 2015 onwards, the program assumes the utilities will repay their own debt.

Table 2c.

Jordan: Central Government: Summary of Quarterly Fiscal Operations, 2013–15

(In millions of Jordanian dinars)

article image
Sources: Jordanian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

For 2013–14, transfers to NEPCO and WAJ include government repayment of guaranteed debt. From 2015 onwards, the program assumes the utilities will repay their own debt.

Table 2d.

Jordan: NEPCO Operating Balance and Financing, 2012–17

article image
Sources: NEPCO; Jordanian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

Interest payments exclude interest on payables to the government.

Includes central government transfers to repay arrears, changes in accounts receivable, depreciation, project expenditures, and other minor items.

Payables to government include transfers from the the government to NEPCO, whose status has not been agreed yet; they are excluded from the computation of the stock of arrears.