Republic of Palau: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that after two years of strong expansion, growth is estimated at about zero percent in the fiscal year 2013 (FY2013, ending in September) in the Republic of Palau owing to declines in construction and tourism. Inflation moderated to 2¾ percent (annual average) in FY2013 thanks to stable international food and fuel prices, and it is expected to stay at about 3 percent in FY2014. Growth is projected to increase to 1¾ percent in FY2014 and to 2¼–2½ percent over the medium term driven by the recovery in tourism and infrastructure developments.

Abstract

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that after two years of strong expansion, growth is estimated at about zero percent in the fiscal year 2013 (FY2013, ending in September) in the Republic of Palau owing to declines in construction and tourism. Inflation moderated to 2¾ percent (annual average) in FY2013 thanks to stable international food and fuel prices, and it is expected to stay at about 3 percent in FY2014. Growth is projected to increase to 1¾ percent in FY2014 and to 2¼–2½ percent over the medium term driven by the recovery in tourism and infrastructure developments.

Fund Relations

(As of February 28, 2014)

Membership Status: Joined December 16, 1997; Article VIII

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None.

Financial Arrangements: None.

Projected Obligations to Fund: None.

Exchange Rate Arrangements.

The U.S. dollar is legal tender and the official currency. Palau maintains an exchange system that is free of restrictions on international payments and transfers for current and capital transactions.

Article IV Consultation:

The last Article IV consultation discussions were held during January 2012. The Executive Board discussed the staff report and concluded the consultation on March 12, 2012. Palau is on a 24-month consultation cycle.

Technical Assistance:

FAD, LEG, STA, and PFTAC have provided technical assistance on tax reforms, statistics, banking supervision, and Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism.

Resident Representative:

Mr. Yongzheng Yang has been the Resident Representative for Pacific Island Countries since September 2010. He is based in Suva, Fiji.

IMF–World Bank Collaboration

(February 2014)

The World Bank and IMF teams for the Republic of Palau led by Mr. Robert Utz (Lead Economist, EASPN) and Mr. Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan (IMF Mission Chief for Palau) maintain a close working relationship and dialogue on macroeconomic and structural issues.

The teams agreed that Palau’s key macroeconomic challenges are to achieve fiscal self-sufficiency and to enhance growth potential in view of declining external assistance in the future. Based on this shared assessment, the teams identified key areas for reforms as follows:

Fiscal reforms

  • Continued fiscal consolidation over the medium term is critical to achieve fiscal self-sufficiency when the Compact grants expire in 2024. The implementation of the authorities’ comprehensive tax reform could raise revenue collection over the medium term. This would need to be complemented by spending reduction, particularly in the wage bill, to ensure long-term sustainability.

  • Strengthening public financial management by implementing a medium-term budget framework, sound management of the newly-established budget reserve fund, prudent fiscal and debt management, and better budget execution and cash management. Continue reforming the pension and social security systems is important to address longstanding unfunded future liabilities.

  • Continued progress in reforming the public utility company would also improve public services and reduce government subsidies. A key challenge will be to balance commercial viability, including by raising utility tariffs, with the need to ensure access to vulnerable groups.

Enhancing growth potential

  • Given Palau’s unique context, improving the investment climate and diversifying the economy are critical to promote private sector development and growth. This includes promoting tourist arrivals from new countries and developing business activities outside the tourism sector. Strengthening and broadening financial regulation and supervision are also needed to preserve financial sector stability.

The teams agreed on close cooperation going forward.

  • The World Bank is currently supporting the government of Palau in undertaking reforms and investments aimed at improving access to Information and Communications Technology (ICT). A Technical Assistance Grant, signed in September 2013, provides advisory support and capacity-building needed to support ICT sector reform and liberalization in Palau. Furthermore, under Phase II of the Pacific Regional Connectivity Program, an investment in telecommunications infrastructure is under preparation. This could entail support for a fiber-optic submarine cable in order to increase the availability and reduce the cost of international bandwidth and hence facilitate the rollout of faster-cheaper broadband Internet. The two operations are expected to increase the availability and quality of ICT infrastructure and enable more widespread application of ICT services. Improved availability and affordability of broadband is expected to contribute to economic and social development and improved service delivery in Palau.

  • The IMF will continue discussing economic and financial policies in surveillance context and providing technical assistance, including through PFTAC, in various areas.

Palau: Bank and Fund Planned Activities 2014–15

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Relations with the Asian Development Bank

(February 2014)

Palau joined the Asian Development Bank (AsDB) on December 29, 2003, as its sixty-third member. While admitted as a regional country, its country classification was to be determined. AsDB prepared a Country Economic Report for Palau and the Development Status and Country Classification of the Republic of Palau, which served as the basis for a determination of Palau’s development status. On December 16, 2005, Palau was re-classified as a Pacific developing member country.

To date, Palau has received three loans for a total of US$51.0 million and five technical assistance projects for US$3.3 million.

Palau and the AsDB entered into a new 5-year Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) 2009–13. The strategy aligns AsDB’s program with that of Palau’s Medium Term Development Strategy.

AsDB will continue to support the implementation of Palau’s priority development strategy. Improving public sector effectiveness and private sector development opportunities are likely to remain key elements of AsDB’s future support, along with support for key infrastructure investments that provide social benefits. Technical support, provided through AsDB’s country and regional programs, will remain a core contributor to AsDB’s program in Palau. Regional activities will support reforms in public sector management, the promotion of access to renewable resources and improvements in energy efficiency, responses to the impact of climate change, and advice on economic policy and private sector development.

The Palau country operations business plan (COBP) includes a pipeline for 2014–16 of US$45.0 million in loans and US$1.5 million in technical assistance. Bilateral and regional technical assistance grants scheduled during the strategy are in the attached tables.

Indicative Assistance Pipeline for Lending Products, 2014–16

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AsDB = Asian Development Bank, ADF = Asian Development Fund, Gov’t = government, OCR = ordinary capital resources, PAUS = Urban, Social Development, and Public Management Division, PPTA = Project preparatory technical assistance, PSD = private sector development, TCT = transport and information and communication technology, TI-M = Targeted intervention—Millennium Development Goals.

Includes US$2.0 million ADF subregional funds.

Indicative Assistance Pipeline for Nonlending Products and Services, 2014–16

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AsDB = Asian Development Bank, CDTA = capacity development technical assistance, ICT = information and communication technology, PAUS = Urban, Social Development, and Public Management Division, PSM = public sector management, TASF = Technical Assistance Special Fund, TCT = transport and information and communication technology, WSM = water supply and other municipal infrastructure and services.Source: Asian Development Bank estimates.

Relations with the Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre (PFTAC)1

(January 2014)

Palau has been a heavy user of PFTAC technical assistance (TA) in recent years. In phase III (FY2009–11) there were 21 missions, spread across all sectors, with the largest concentration in public financial management (PFM), where the focus was on strengthening cash management and laying the groundwork for the development of medium-term budgeting. Other results achieved in phase III included revenue compliance strategies and strengthened bank supervision through the adoption of regulations, improved bank reporting, and the establishment of an on-site supervision program. Methodologies for producing a broader range of national income and balance of payments statistics were also developed.

Strategy 2011–13

PFTAC’s TA strategy is guided by the APD regional strategy note and is planned within the results framework for the current PFTAC (Phase IV) FY2011–16 funding cycle.2

PFTAC TA aims to support the authorities sustain progress on fiscal consolidation and strengthen the financial sector. Priorities will be strengthening revenue administration and, in close coordination with AsDB, improving PFM. Continued strengthening of financial sector supervision will also be required.

In the public financial management area, the focus will be on continuing to support AsDB’s project on developing medium-term budgeting. PFTAC will support Palau in undertaking a formal PEFA assessment in early 2015 if requested, following on its Self-Assessment in early 2013. Follow up support on accounting and cash management may also be required.

In the tax revenue policy and administration area, PFTAC will follow up on Palau’s recent decision to introduce a tax reform bill in Congress by providing technical assistance to ensure that the bill is consistent with international policy and administrative practices. If necessary, PFTAC will provide assistance to redraft the legislation and provide recommendations on tax policy and administrative reforms that may be necessary to successfully implement a VAT. The capacity of the revenue division to administer the existing tax laws is not strong and it is likely that should Palau proceed with tax reform, there will be a need for ongoing PFTAC technical assistance. Given the scope of work required to uplift administrative capacity and implement a new tax regime, it is probable that this assistance alone will be insufficient and PFTAC will work with aid agencies to identify funding for a resident tax adviser. PFTAC has previously provided assistance to develop an IT strategic plan and, if tax reform proceeds, the implementation of this plan and identification of donors to fund the IT development will also be a priority.

In the financial sector supervision area, prudential returns are now implemented, and Palau is in line for the integration of the Financial Sector Information System (FSIS) developed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to be performed in late 2014. A regional on-site examination training workshop will be held for the staff in mid 2014. Capacity building in risk based banking supervision will continue including workshops for management on how to manage in a risk based environment.

In economic statistics, PFTAC will continue to provide technical assistance for the development of GDP estimates by expenditure and will assist with capacity building in national accounts statistics (RBM code 4.1). IMF HQ will provide resources to produce better current and capital accounts of the balance of payments (RBM codes 4.6–4.8) and government finance statistics.

In the macroeconomic analysis and frameworks area, PFTAC will provide TA on developing the methodology used to forecast revenues focusing on planned tax reform measures. In addition, TA will also be provided to develop capacity to assess alternative fiscal consolidation options for preserving fiscal / debt sustainability when the Compact grants expire in 2023.

Statistical Issues

Indicative Assistance Pipeline for Nonlending Products and Services, 2014–16

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Palau: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

As of March 31, 2014

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency, but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency, but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A);; irregular (I); and not available (NA).

1

PFTAC is a regional technical assistance institution operated by the IMF with financial support of the AsDB, Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. The Centre’s aim is to build skills and institutional capacity for effective economic and financial management that can be sustained at the national and regional level. Member countries are Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. It is based in Suva, Fiji.

2

The results framework and additional detail on recent activity can be found within the PFTAC Phase IV program document and FY2011 Annual Report, available at www.pftac.org.