Montenegro: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex
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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
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This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro’s recovery from the collapse of the lending boom in 2008 has been slowed by the debt overhang that remains in the private sector. Output contracted in 2012 because of unusually severe winter weather early in the year, as well as a sharp decline in aluminum production as the financial position of the troubled aluminum company (KAP) continued to worsen. Activity picked up in early 2013 as more favorable weather conditions resulted in a sharp increase in hydro-based electricity production. A sustained, multi-year fiscal consolidation effort is needed to reduce the public debt burden to an appropriately low level in the medium term.

Abstract

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro’s recovery from the collapse of the lending boom in 2008 has been slowed by the debt overhang that remains in the private sector. Output contracted in 2012 because of unusually severe winter weather early in the year, as well as a sharp decline in aluminum production as the financial position of the troubled aluminum company (KAP) continued to worsen. Activity picked up in early 2013 as more favorable weather conditions resulted in a sharp increase in hydro-based electricity production. A sustained, multi-year fiscal consolidation effort is needed to reduce the public debt burden to an appropriately low level in the medium term.

Fund Relations

(As of April 30, 2013)

Membership Status: Joined January 18, 2007; Article VIII.

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None.

Latest Financial Arrangements: None.

Projected Obligations to Fund (In millions of SDR):

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Implementation of HIPC Initiative: Not Applicable.

Implementation of Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI): Not Applicable.

Implementation of Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief (PCDR): Not Applicable.

Exchange Arrangement: Montenegro does not issue its own currency, has been using the euro as legal tender since 2002, and has accepted the obligations under Article VIII. Montenegro maintains an exchange system free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, except with respect to pre-1992 blocked foreign currency savings accounts and restrictions maintained for security purposes that have not been notified to the Fund.

Last Article IV Consultation: Concluded on April 27, 2012 (IMF Country Report No. 12/122).

FSAP Participation: A Financial Sector Assessment Program was initiated in July 2006, jointly with the World Bank, and concluded during the 2007 Article IV consultation. The Executive Board discussed the Financial System Stability Assessment in January 2008 (IMF Country Report No. 08/50).

Technical Assistance in the Past 12 Months:

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In addition, technical assistance was available through resident advisors covering tax administration, public financial management and real sector statistics.

Resident Representative: None.

World Bank Group Relations

Montenegro joined the World Bank Group (WBG) as an independent country in January 2007. The Bank had implemented a discrete program of lending and analytical work for Montenegro for most of the period since the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro had joined the WBG in 2001, with three projects still being active at the onset of Montenegro’s first Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for the fiscal years 2007–10. Within this framework, the Board approved two IDA credits (US$19 million)—just prior to graduation—and five IBRD loans (US$54 million) to provide selective support to three key country priorities: (i) enhancing sustainable macroeconomic growth; (ii) building institutions and strengthening the rule of law; and (iii) improving the standard of living for citizens. The committed portfolio has grown from US$34 million in 2007 to US$70.3 million by May 2013. About 52 percent of these commitments remain to be disbursed. Investment operations are focused principally on supporting sustainable development and human development.

Montenegro: World Bank Project Portfolio, May 2013

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In January 2011, the Board approved the US$ 216-million CPS for FY2011–14. This CPS supports the government’s overarching objective of full integration with the EU within a medium-term horizon. The strategy—reflecting Montenegro’s status as an upper middle income client with well-defined development priorities—aims at (i) strengthening institutions and competitiveness in line with EU accession requirements; and (ii) improving environmental management including reducing the costs of environmental problems. The government has requested the Bank to focus its support in areas where it had previously been engaged and/or gained applicable regional or global experience. The centerpiece of the Bank’s engagement in 2011 and 2012 was the financial-sector development policy loan (FSDPL) of US$80 million and a Policy-Based Guarantee (PBG) of US$80 million, both disbursed in 2012, which supported the government’s program to strengthen the banking sector, bringing regulations into line with EU norms, and to encourage resumption of credit growth. The Bank’s engagement in 2013 is focused on a US$50 million development policy loan that provides budget support to strengthen fiscal consolidation and policies geared towards sustained growth. New investment lending was approved for a Higher Education/R&D project in amount of US$16 million, while an additional new investment lending for the Industrial Waste Management and Clean-Up Project is being prepared. In the area of analytical work, the Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), disseminated in May 2013, provided analytical support to the authorities’ National Development Plan, which aims to implement Montenegro’s growth and sustainability agenda in the process of convergence with the EU.

Cooperation with the IMF has been good, particularly in the areas of macroeconomic and financial sector policies. Bank and Fund teams coordinated closely during the preparation of the FSDPL and PBG in 2011 and 2012 and continued under the Public Expenditure Development Policy Loan (PEDPL). The World Bank Group, through its ongoing and planned operations, as well its complementary economic and sector work, will continue to provide input to the IMF on issues such as (i) public expenditure, including pension and health reforms; (ii) business climate and competitiveness, including labor market reform and resolution of nonperforming loans; (iii) public sector institutions and fiduciary review, and (iv) agricultural assessment; and (v) statistical capacity building and poverty monitoring. The Fund and Bank staff have sought each other’s input in internal review processes.

Montenegro: JMAP Bank and Fund Planned Activities in Macro-critical Structural Reform Areas, January—December 2013

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Prepared by World Bank staff. Questions may be addressed to Abebe Adugna, lead economist, Western Balkans (aadugna@worldbank.org; 202-473-4419).

Statistical Issues

MONTENEGRO—STATISTICAL ISSUES APPENDIX

As of May 2013

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Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of end-May 2013)

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).

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Montenegro: 2013 Article IV Consultation
Author:
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.