Front Matter

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IMF Country Report No. 13/237

UNITED STATES

2012 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION

July 2013

Selected Issues

This Selected Issues paper for the United States was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 10, 2013. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of United States or the Executive Board of the IMF.

The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents by the IMF allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information.

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© 2013 International Monetary Fund

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UNITED STATES

SELECTED ISSUES

July 9, 2013

Approved By

Western Hemisphere Department

Prepared By Oya Celasun, Francesco Columba, Gabriel Di Bella, Madelyn Estrada, Deniz O. Igan, Lusine Lusinyan, Tim Mahedy, and Martin Sommer (WHD); Akito Matsumoto, Dirk Muir, and Ben Hunt (RES); Rebecca McCaughrin (MCM); Chris Papageorgiou (SPR); Baoping Shang (FAD); Tao Wu (ICD); and Kenichiro Kashiwase (APD)

Contents

  • THE U.S. MANUFACTURING RECOVERY: UPTICK OR RENAISSANCE?

  • A. Introduction

  • B. Stylized Facts

  • C. Drivers of U.S. Manufacturing in the Short Run

  • D. The Energy Boom—How Much of a Pull for U.S. Manufacturing?

  • E. Long-Term Impact of U.S. Manufacturing

  • F. Concluding Thoughts

  • References

  • FIGURES

  • 1. History of Manufacturing Production

  • 2. The Manufacturing Rebound and Natural Gas Production

  • 3. Manufacturing Production in G-7 Countries

  • TABLES

  • 1. Panel Regression Estimates for Total Manufacturing Production

  • 2. Panel Regression Estimates for Long-Term Manufacturing Model

  • MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE U.S. ENERGY BOOM

  • A. Background

  • B. Impact on the Energy Balance—Partial Equilibrium Analysis

  • C. Macroeconomic Impact—General Equilibrium Analysis

  • D. Conclusions

  • References

  • BOX

  • 1. What are Shale Gas and Tight Oil?

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Oil and Gas Production Forecasts

  • 2. GEM Simulation Results: Global Market

  • 3. GEM Simulation Results: Segmented Market

  • 4. GEM Simulation Results: Monetary Accommodation

  • 5. GEM Simulation Results: Increased Private Savings

  • 6. GEM Simulation Results: Higher Efficiency

  • RISKY BUSINESS: THE UNCERTAINTY IN U.S. HEALTH CARE SPENDING

  • A. Introduction

  • B. What Explains the Recent Slowdown in Health Care Spending Growth?

  • C. Projecting Health Care Spending: Population Aging is the Key Driver

  • D. Policy Options to Bend the Cost Curve

  • References

  • BOX

  • 1. ACA Implementation: Uncertainties and Risks

  • APPENDIX

  • I. Health Spending Growth and Economic Conditions: A Cross-Country Analysis

  • APPENDIX TABLES

  • 1. Cross-Country Regression Estimates

  • 1. Actual, Predicted, and Simulated Total and Public Spending Growth

  • ARE U.S. SMALL BUSINESSES CREDIT CONSTRAINED?

  • A. Introduction

  • B. SMEs in the U.S. Economy

  • C. Are SMEs Credit Constrained? Some Evidence from Start-ups

  • D. Conclusions

  • References

  • TABLES

  • 1. Financing Experiences of Start-Ups

  • 2. Reasons for Denial of Loan Application or Renewal of Credit Line

  • 3. Type of Collateral Posted for Loans

  • 4. Panel Regression Estimates for Probability of a Firm Loan Application

  • 5. Panel Regression Estimates for Probability that a Firm Loan Application is Approved

  • EXITING FROM UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY: POTENTIAL CHALLENGES AND RISKS

  • A. Introduction

  • B. Exit Strategy: Operational Challenges

  • C. Exit Strategy and Long-Term Bond Yields

  • References

  • FIGURE

  • 1. Shifts in Projected Path of Excess SOMA Holding

  • TABLES

  • 1. Variable Included in Ten-Year Term Premium Model

  • 2. Determination of Ten-Year Treasury Term Premium

  • 3. Decomposition of Changes in Ten-year Term Premium: September 2008 to March 2013

United States: Selected Issues
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.