This Selected Issues paper for the United States was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 10, 2013. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of United States or the Executive Board of the IMF.
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Prepared By Oya Celasun, Francesco Columba, Gabriel Di Bella, Madelyn Estrada, Deniz O. Igan, Lusine Lusinyan, Tim Mahedy, and Martin Sommer (WHD); Akito Matsumoto, Dirk Muir, and Ben Hunt (RES); Rebecca McCaughrin (MCM); Chris Papageorgiou (SPR); Baoping Shang (FAD); Tao Wu (ICD); and Kenichiro Kashiwase (APD)
THE U.S. MANUFACTURING RECOVERY: UPTICK OR RENAISSANCE?
B. Stylized Facts
C. Drivers of U.S. Manufacturing in the Short Run
D. The Energy Boom—How Much of a Pull for U.S. Manufacturing?
E. Long-Term Impact of U.S. Manufacturing
F. Concluding Thoughts
1. History of Manufacturing Production
2. The Manufacturing Rebound and Natural Gas Production
3. Manufacturing Production in G-7 Countries
1. Panel Regression Estimates for Total Manufacturing Production
2. Panel Regression Estimates for Long-Term Manufacturing Model
MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE U.S. ENERGY BOOM
B. Impact on the Energy Balance—Partial Equilibrium Analysis
C. Macroeconomic Impact—General Equilibrium Analysis