Laxton, D., and P. Pesenti, 2003, “Monetary Policy Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 50, pp 1109–46.
Hunt, B., 2005, “Oil Price Shocks: Can they Account for the Stagflation in the 1970s?” IMF Working Paper, WP/05/215 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Hunt, B., and A. Rebucci, 2005, “The U.S. Dollar and Trade Deficit: What Accounts for the Late 1990s?” International Finance, Vol. 8(3), pp 399–434.
Prepared by Niklas Westelius.
The data on spare capacity numbers for 2012 are taken from IEA which reports capacity levels that can be reached within 30 days and sustained for 90 days.
In an interview in 1998 with SPA (Saudi Press Agency), Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Al-Naimi stated that Saudi Arabia had abandoned the role of swing producer in the 1980s because it had resulted in the loss of both market share and large oil revenues.
Oil price volatility is measured as the standard deviation of detrended oil prices over a 30-day period. The daily oil data is detrended using the HP-filter with a smoothing parameter of 100,000.
To some degree, one could consider the third and fourth volatility spikes as related to the short and temporary decline in volatility at the beginning of September.
The GEM Simulations in this section were prepared by Keiko Honjo.