1.1.1 Demographic trend and factors of social exclusion

10. The Senegalese population grew from 3 million inhabitants in 1960 to about 12.5 million inhabitants in 2010. It increases by more than 260 000 persons per annum, i.e. a demographic growth of 2.6%. The sizeable population increase is due to the considerable decline in mortality and the high fertility level. According to the 2010 estimates, 55% of the Senegalese population live in the rural areas, one out of two Senegalese is under 20 years old and about two out of three Senegalese are under 25 years old. This population increase did not come along with a substantial provision of basic social services.

11. With regard to human resources, the high rate of unemployment and under-employment are the most obvious signs. Actually, only one out of five people are working full time in Senegal. Such a situation appears to suggest a high dependency rate which, among other things, translates into constant pressure on working individuals who run the risk of falling into monetary poverty. The scattered location and multiplicity of employment support structures, the fact that there is no linkage between the labour market, vocational training and the self-employment support policy, as well as lack of labour market transparency constitute factors that are not conducive for the decline in unemployment and under-employment.

12. The results of the 2011 poverty monitoring survey estimate unemployment rate a 10.2%. It remained basically stable compared to 2005 when it was estimated at 10.0%. Unemployment rate is estimated at 7.7% among men and 13.3% among women. Besides, it must be underscored that the majority of women are essentially engaged in unpaid activities. Depending on their level of education, unemployment is more frequent among those with secondary education level in the broader sense. It has reached more than 20% in the rural areas; the migration into towns, of youths and active women is an obvious sign of the shortage of productive employment. In the urban areas, the training offer often matches the needs of the labour market. The highest unemployment rate is especially found among young graduates. Globally, vocational training levels are low and limited. This partially leads to the expansion of the informal sector. In the rural areas, illiteracy and under-employment are widespread among the active population, largely agricultural, who are thus exposed to hazards. In case of climate shock like drought, the population is mostly left without jobs.

13. Moreover, the youthfulness of the population has significant social repercussions, notably tensions on the labour market. The majority of the population are women (52% of the total population) who represent 65% of the active population.

14. Depending on the economic sectors, employment presents geographical and gender disparities. In the rural areas, women are primarily engaged in agriculture, livestock production and fisheries. They carry out close to 82.6% of the work, often with rudimentary means, against 79.4% for men. In the urban areas, women consider the informal sector as an interesting alternative since it requires less skills and specialization, but is also more flexible and more adapted to their financial capacities and their schedule of activities. They are thus underrepresented in the formal sector.

15. Moreover, the informal sector contributes 55% to GDP and is considered as a refuge sector which attracts all job creating initiatives. This makes it an attractive lever for most youths, struggling with the restricted absorption capacities of the formal sector. Informal employment which absorbs more than 60% of non-agricultural jobs is increasing with urbanization.

16. In addition to the extensive underemployment observed in the agricultural sector, the non-agricultural sector is also said to be affected by this phenomenon, but to a lesser degree. In 2011, the underemployment rate was estimated at 32% for the entire active population, with a slight disparity for active women (37%).

17. Besides, the gender inequality index, which was 0.566 in 2011, reflects the persistence of major social and gender disparities in Senegal. The disparities between regions concern access to basic infrastructure: safe safe drinking water and sanitation, transportation infrastructure, infrastructure for the storage, conservation and processing of local products, electricity and large-scale irrigation activities. These elements are perceived as major sources of inequality and inefficiency with regard to contribution to economic growth.

1.1.2. Inadequate access to basic social services

18. Notable progress was registered with regard to access to primary education, safe drinking water and health. However, concerning the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), the progress registered for access to maternal, infant and child health care was quite shy and relatively limited in the field of sanitation and primary school completion.

19. With regard to education, sizeable efforts have been made to step up the populations’ level of education and develop their skills. Thus, the gross pre-school enrolment rate increased from 8.0% in 2006 to 10.7% in 2011. The gross grade 1 admission rate gained about 10 points (103.2% in 2006 against 113.0% in 2011). The gross primary school enrolment rate¹ was 79.7% in 2011, against 75.8% in 2005, with significant regional disparities. The highest levels are registered in Dakar (102.6%) and Ziguinchor (115.6%) while Kaffrine (44.2%) and Diourbel (47%) show a less favourable performance. However, Education for All (EFA) has not yet been attained because the net primary school enrolment rate, in 2011, is around 59.6%² while it was 54.6%, in 2005. This is reflected by the educational delay for a significant number of children who have exceeded the normal primary enrolment age. The primary cycle completion rate is not yet satisfactory even though it registered a positive trend, since 2006, rising from 49.7% to 66.9%, in 2011. Thus, about 1/3 of school-age children do not complete the primary cycle. The unmet demand for schooling, on the one hand, and the high number of drop-outs (about 8% in 2010), on the other hand, constrain progress. Thus, the pupil-teacher ratios remained high in primary schools: 51 pupils per teacher, in 2000, and about 40, in 2011. These ratios represent more than twice the results registered in most emerging countries where they are currently estimated at between 15 and 25 pupils per teacher.

20. In the area of vocational and technical training and that of literacy and non-formal education,³ further efforts need to be made. The results of vocational and technical training show serious regional disparities; the majority of pupils enrolled (62.5%) and an essential component of those attending private schools are still concentrated in the region of Dakar. The regions of Louga, Matam and Fatick have the lowest student population.

21. Higher education is marked by the rapidly growing student population. The number of new baccalaureate holders rose from 29,908 in 2010, to 30,564 in 2011. Girls account for 40.9% of these students. The admission of this large inflow of students in public universities is still a serious problem, despite the contribution of the private sector for the beneficiaries’ access to higher education. Notwithstanding the creation of the Regional University Centres (CUR), l’Université Cheikh Anta Diop is still congested. The public offer has not developed sufficiently to meet the demand.

22. In general, the main problem of education is its low internal efficiency, reflected in the poor quality of education, the inadequate teaching and learning materials, insufficient enrolment capacities due to a deficit in volume and the delay in the classrooms construction programmes, teachers’ lack of qualification, with the massive recruitment of volunteer and contract teachers and the negative impacts of the recurrent school disturbances on the school calendar and the individual schedules.

23. In the field of health, Senegal has not yet reached the recommended WHO standards, in terms of health facility cover and skilled staff; these indicators are still unevenly distributed throughout the country, at the detriment of the rural areas. The same applies to the provision of drugs. In terms of demand, the poorest populations did not systematically benefit from the free health care programmes that have been instituted, and this reduces their capacity to have access to the health care they are entitled to.

24. The population’s state of health varies in degree. Malaria is still the leading cause of morbidity in Senegal and accounts for 42.6% of causes of diseases. Efforts to fight against malaria have led to a dramatic fall⁴ in the proportional malaria morbidity which plunged from 39.7%, in 2000, to 3%, in 2009. However, cardiovascular diseases have become a real health problem due to the increase in their incidence in all countries. Neglected for far too long because of the scale of transmissible diseases, they have become the second cause of mortality, after malaria, in Dakar health facilities. They are chronic diseases that are costly with a great burden of morbidity and mortality The risk factors associated with cardiovascular diseases include high blood pressure (50%), smoking (47%), obesity (23%), cholesterol (12.5%) and diabetes (11.6%). Among these cardiovascular diseases, heart failure is a major cause of concern since it is the principal cause of hospitalization in cardiology services of the various hospitals, with a rate of between 37 and 40%.

25. With regard to AIDS, 0.7 % of Senegalese adults in the 15-49 years age bracket were HIV-positive in 2010-11. The rate remained stable compared to 2005. The HIV-positive rate is highest among women in the regions of Kédougou (2.5%) and Kolda (2.4%), and those having attained primary level education (1.2%). Among men, the highest seroprevalence rate is found in the region of Kolda (2.4%) and, to a lesser extent, in Tambacounda (1.2%) and Ziguinchor (0.9%). Anti-Retrovirals are free.

26. The rate of mortality among children, regardless of the cause, has declined considerably. During the 2007-2011 period, 47 out of 1000 live births died before their first birthday, 29 of whom died between 0 and1month exactly (i.e. a contribution of 61.7% to child mortality) and 18 ⁰/00 between 1 and 1 month sold. It is worth noting that 26⁰/00 of children having reached a year did not celebrate their fifth anniversary. Subsequently, attaining the objective⁵ of reducing the level of child mortality by two-thirds require substantial efforts in terms of the global management of the health of the newborn, at the risk of missing the target, in 2015.

27. In the same vein, infant and child mortality is still high, despite the 45% decline registered between 1992 (DHS 2) and 2010-11 (DHS-MICS), when72 deaths per 1000 live births were registered. This decline is partly due to improved immunization coverage, at national level, which rose from59%to 63%of children aged 12-23 months. Thus, the objective of reducing infant-child mortality to 44 deaths per 1000 live births by 2015, may not be achieved.

28. With regard to maternal mortality, 392 maternal deaths for100 000live births were registered in 2010-11, i.e. a 2% decline in 6 years. Its reduction pace is too slow to reach the MDG target of 127 deaths for 100000 live births by 2015. However, efforts were made in the area of maternal health with a proportion of births assisted by skilled attendants increasing from 49% in 1999, to 65.1%, in 2010-11 (DHS-MICS). The rate of prenatal checkups⁶ increased to 93.3%, in 2010-11, against 74%, in 2007. The causes of maternal mortality include direct obstetrical pathologies such as hemorrhages, high blood pressure and its complications, obstructed labour and infections but also indirect obstetrical causes dominated by anaemia and malaria.

29. However, there is need to improve the offer in reproductive health services by accelerating the reduction of maternal mortality as well as maternal and neonatal morbidity. This signals the repositioning of family planning in order to cover the unmet needs estimated⁷ at 29.4%. The coverage of these needs helps reduce maternal deaths⁸ from 20 à 30% and infant mortality⁹ from 12 to 20%.

30. Moreover, chronic malnutrition rate among children under 5 declined by half, dwindling from 30%, in 2000, to 16%, in 2011. By contrast, about one out of six children (18%) in2011, against 17%, in 2005, are underweight while5% suffer from severe underweight against3 %, in 2005. In the rural areas, 21 % of children are affected by this form of malnutrition compared to 12 %, in the urban areas. The prevalence of severe underweight is high in the regions of Sédhiou (27%), Kolda (26%), Saint-Louis (25 %), Matam (25 %), Kaffrine (24 %), Louga (23 %), Tambacounda (22%) and Kédougou (21 %) where more than one out of five children is affected by this phenomenon. Dakar is the region with the lowest prevalence of underweight children (9 %).

31. The main constraints to the decline in maternal and infant-child mortality are: i) difficult access to health care and medication, ii) the time spent to access a health care facility and the average price paid for consultation that can also be a deterrent to their seeking health care; iii) disruptions in the stock of vaccines in health posts and centres; iv) the very limited capacity to mobilize resources for health care and v) inadequate sensitization and communication between the different actors of the sector leading to an unnecessary doubling of efforts and an inconsistency in the implementation of actions.

32. Besides, notable progress was registered in access to safe drinking water while the results for access to sanitation were insignificant. This implies that if the actual trend is maintained, the objective of ensuring access to water for 100% of the urban population and 82 % of the rural populations could be attained. In fact, for the urban populations, the rate rose from 93%, in 2006 to 98.797%, in 2011. In the rural areas, the rate increased from 69.5%, in 2006 to 80.1%, in 2011. Beyond the progress registered in the provision of infrastructure, the major challenge is still the regular supply of safe drinking water in all regions.

33. However, while satisfactory progress was registered in access to water, this was not the case for access to sanitation. Sizeable efforts still need to be made to improve the rural populations’access to an improved sanitation system. The rate of access to sanitation in the urban areas stepped up from 62.0%, in 2005, to 63.3%, in 2011, while the access rate increased from 26.2%, in 2006, to 34.3%, in 2011 in the rural areas.

34. The shortage of basic infrastructure, especially in the rural areas, is due to elevated costs and low investments. This is compounded by the high cost of individual sanitation infrastructure, the poverty of households and the limited resources of local communities. Finally, the recurrence of flooding, in 2012, reflect slack of consistency between the management of the occupation of housing areas and the water evacuation systems, in general, and rain water, in particular.

35. With regard to housing and living conditions, Senegal is striving to deal with the physical deterioration, essentially due to the rapid urbanization caused by the rural-urban drift. In most cities, the unsanitary zone unfit for human habitation represents 30 to 40% of occupied space and concentrates a sizeable proportion of the population. Thus, the uncontrolled occupation of space, the « slumification » of housing, problems of hygiene and public health caused by flooding which has become recurrent, insecurity linked to ill-planned urbanization are a set of factors that increased the vulnerability of the populations and led to the deterioration of the living environment in working class areas.

36. To improve the housing and living environment, some constraints need to be lifted: weak land regularization which creates difficulties to access land; inadequate participation of concessionary companies in the primary servicing of planned human settlements; lack of public financing for roads and other networks; lack of guarantee fund to subsidize the banks’ interest rates and accelerate the funding of social housing; taxation and high charges that add up to the cost of social housing.

37. Moreover, the environmental policy has always been based on the rational management of natural resources in a sustainable development perspective. Despite the efforts and the progress made in biodiversity conservation, the situation is still characterized by an advanced degradation of natural resources. However, significant efforts were made through the activities of reconstitution, reforestation, conservation and protection of forestry resources, of the fauna and its habitat. The actions impacted on the natural regeneration of ecosystems. However, adapting to climate change is a new major challenge with the development of phenomena such as flooding, coastal erosion and land salinization. Sustainable solutions should be found to enable the populations to develop a culture of prevention and adaptation to climate change.

38. With regard to social protection, Senegal has a low coverage level. The social safety net is incapable of reacting rapidly and is even less capable of increasing the scale and scope of responses to crises. The formal health insurance systems provide health risk cover only to Senegalese families whose head is employed in the modern sector. Only 20% of the population is catered for by this system while the majority of Senegalese (80%) employed in the rural and informal sectors are left behind. This situation led the State to initiate the National Strategy for the Extension of Health Risk Coverage (SNECRM) which promotes the development of mutual health insurance. Thus, the number of functional health insurance increased from 80, in 2003, to 237 including 217 community-based mutual health insurance and 20 nation-wide mutual insurance, in 2011. Today, the number of beneficiaries is estimated at 609182. The low level of social protection, the insufficient targeting and the lack of coordination of interventions and inadequate resource allocation still constitute the major constraints to social protection.

39. The implementation of free health care and safety nets programmes helped improve the access of vulnerable groups to basic social services. However, difficulties are still being experienced in the implementation of certain programmes for the caring of vulnerable persons. These difficulties relate to the targeting of beneficiaries, inadequate mobilized resources, malfunctioning of the information systems and the coordination of interventions.

1.2.1. Economic growth profile

40. The 2000-2011 period is marked by the fact that economic performance is insufficient for poverty reduction. The GDP growth rate stood at an annual average of 3.9%, a ratio that is slightly higher than demographic growth (2.6%). This mixed performance, which is less than the average of 5% registered between 1995 and 2005, is partly due to external shocks and a slow pace of business climate reforms. However, internal and external deficits have intensified. The evolution of the general price level, during the period, was curbed with the exception of 2008 when inflation called for strong safeguard measures. Senegal’s development prospects were particularly marred by the 2008-2009 financial and economic crisis, lack of effectiveness of public expenditure, low investment rate and rainfall deficit.

41. The upward trend of the final consumption has weakened the savings effort. During the period, it increased by more than 3.9% among women and 3.8% in the Public Administration. At the same time, the budget deficit reached relatively high levels. Its increase attests to the need to improve the quality of credit allocation and public expenditure implementation. In conjunction with this, both the domestic and foreign public debt outstanding increased considerably over the past four years, despite the debt cancellations registered within the framework of the HIPC and ADM initiatives. The overall foreign debt outstanding thus accounted for 39.7 % of GDP in 2011, against 26.0 %, in 2008. The public debt-budget revenue ratios deteriorated. This new debt trend could jeopardize its viability, even though it is below the community ceiling.

42. The investment rate which sometimes reaches interesting levels remained constant at an average of around 22%, in real terms. This trend is due to the positive externalities registered thanks to the improvement of public infrastructure. However, Direct Foreign Investments (DFI) were relatively low (58 million US dollars), before resuming growth between 2005 and 2009. They represent an average of 8% of the GFCF. This low level of investment is attributed an unattractive business environment. In this regard, the “Doing Business” report ranked Senegal 154^th out of 183 countries in 2011, then 166^th out of 185 countries in 2012. Despite the reforms initiated since 2003, transactions relative to land ownership as well as access to credit and electricity are confronted with administrative red tape. In addition to its slow progression, investment is characterized by unequal spatial distributionas well as an unbalanced sectoral allocation. It did not significantly benefit the poor populations.

43. The 2000-2011 decade was marked by limited export performance, mitigated by the increase in the world prices of some exported products. The latter increased by 2.6% in volume per annum, during the period, i.e. a lot slower than GDP. Thus, Senegal’s balance of trade is still in deficit. It declined, on average, by 15.3% between 1999 and 2008. This situation was combined with a loss of market shares, at world level. The structural deficit of the non-factor goods and services balance of trade to GDP ratio rose from 8%, in 2000, to about 12% per annum in 2010. Strong variations are observed, especially in 2007 and 2008, because of the increase in the price of imported products. By contrast, the Senegalese economy benefits from substantial transfers of private¹⁰ and public income (international aid) which contribute to improving the current account deficit.

44. The low growth level of the Senegalese economy results from the following factors: i) the preponderance of the unproductive informal sector, in the creation of wealth and jobs¹¹; ii) the external shocks which attests to the fragility of the productive bases of the Senegalese economy and iii) the relatively limited impact of public policies on economic growth. The Senegalese economy is still dominated by the production of low-value added goods and is underpinned by patterns of specialization based on stagnant products which made it difficult for it to take an active part in the global economy.

1.2.2. Incidence of poverty

45. The weak and erratic economic growth might compromise the chances of achieving the objective of halving the incidence of poverty (34%). The approach adopted on the notion of « poverty » lays emphasis on the precariousness in several areas of human existence. An empirical approach to poverty is reflected by a basket of food and non-food commodities essential for every individual or group of individuals, to live in decent conditions.

Table 1:

Evolution of poverty indicators in Senegal, 2001-2010.

Source : Poverty Monitoring Survey in Senegal (ESPS-II), ANSD, Dakar, Senegal.

Table 1:

Evolution of poverty indicators in Senegal, 2001-2010.

Indicators	Dakar	Other	Rural	Nation
Year 2001
Incidence of poverty	38.1	45.2	65.2	55.2
The depth of	10.2	13.4	21.2	17.3
Severity of poverty	3.8	5.5	9.2	7.3
Year 2005
Incidence of poverty	28.1	41.4	59	48.3
Depth of poverty	6.8	11.6	20.2	15.5
Severity of poverty	2.4	4.8	9.5	7
Year 2011
Incidence of poverty	26.2	41.3	57.3	46.7
Depth of poverty	5.8	13.1	18.7	14.6
Severity of poverty	2.1	5.9	8.7	6,6

Source : Poverty Monitoring Survey in Senegal (ESPS-II), ANSD, Dakar, Senegal.

View Table

Table 1:

Evolution of poverty indicators in Senegal, 2001-2010.

Indicators	Dakar	Other	Rural	Nation
Year 2001
Incidence of poverty	38.1	45.2	65.2	55.2
The depth of	10.2	13.4	21.2	17.3
Severity of poverty	3.8	5.5	9.2	7.3
Year 2005
Incidence of poverty	28.1	41.4	59	48.3
Depth of poverty	6.8	11.6	20.2	15.5
Severity of poverty	2.4	4.8	9.5	7
Year 2011
Incidence of poverty	26.2	41.3	57.3	46.7
Depth of poverty	5.8	13.1	18.7	14.6
Severity of poverty	2.1	5.9	8.7	6,6

Source : Poverty Monitoring Survey in Senegal (ESPS-II), ANSD, Dakar, Senegal.

46. According to the provisional results of the second poverty monitoring survey in Senegal in 2010-11, poverty reduction showed a positive trend. In fact, the proportion of individuals living below the poverty line12 dropped from 55.2% in 2001 to 48.3% in 2005, before reaching 46.7% in 2011. Between 2005 and 2011, it slightly declined in Dakar and in the rural areas and stabilized in other urban centres. In fact, the proportion of individuals living below the poverty line¹² dropped from 55.2% in 2001 to 48.3% in 2005, before reaching 46.7% in 2011. Between 2005 and 2011, it slightly declined in Dakar and in the rural areas and stabilized in other urban centres.

47. In 2011, the highest poverty levels were found in the regions of Kolda (76.6%), Kédougou (71.3%), Sédhiou (68.3%), Fatick (67.8%) and Ziguinchor (66.8%). Moreover, the incidence of monetary poverty is estimated at 34.7%among persons living in female-headed households against 50.6% among persons living in male-headed households. The civil status of the head of household makes a difference. The incidence of poverty is 36.3% among persons living in households headed by single persons, 46.7% among monogamous households and 50.1% among polygamous households. The rate of poverty among persons living in households headed by single persons is 16.4% in Dakar, 39.0% in the other cities and 49.4% in the rural areas. Households headed by persons over 60 years old, often inactive or retired, are more affected by poverty; elders (over 60) represent 38.7% of the total poor at national level.

1.4.1. Low productivity

59. Since the devaluation of the CFA franc in 1994, growth has been driven by the building, telecommunications and industrial activities, tourism and trade sectors, to the detriment of agriculture, which still occupies more than half the population. This sectoral composition of growth, in the absence a recovery steering operation through rural micro- industrialization and a sub-sector for the local promotion of national agriculture, explains the persistence of poverty in the rural areas and in the outskirts of cities where labour is restricted to survival activities which characterize the informal sector. In general, the low overall productivity of the Senegalese economy with its resulting low rate of savings is due to the low agricultural productivity¹³ and the significant share of the informal sector.

60. The sub-sectors of the primary economy generally suffer from difficulties to access quality inputs and the non-existence of modern production facilities and infrastructure. The agricultural sub-sector is confronted with a certain number of difficulties including those concerning access to production factors; the low level of development of water works ; strong dependence on rain-fed crops, non availability of quality seeds; in appropriateness of the land policy; lack of integration and structuring of sub-sectors around value chains; insufficient integration of research results; difficulties to access markets and the low added value of exported products. With regard to the livestock production sub-sector, the constraints impeding its development are due, among others, to the low level of production of local breeds, insufficient basic physical infrastructure, the strong agriculture-animal breeding competition for the occupation of land and the non existence of modern systems for the processing and marketing of animal products.

61. Likewise, in the area of food security, Senegal is having difficulties with the populations’ access to a sufficient amount of quality food products as well as uncertainty in meeting their food needs. In fact, the prevalence¹⁴ of food insecurity in households is estimated at 15.1%, in the rural areas and 8.5%, in the urban areas. In nutritional terms, the SMART survey conducted in June 2012 showed that 16 of the 45 Senegalese departments are in a distressing situation and 3 of them have already exceeded the nutritional crisis threshold.

62. For its part, the industry is confronted with insufficient production, inadequate competitiveness, lack of capacities of industrial firms, geographical and structural weakness of the industrial fabric. In operational terms, initiatives concerning partnership between the State and the private sector are still shy, particularly with regard to the promotion of entrepreneurial initiative, the development of innovation through research-application, the creation of integrated competitiveness poles and the training of future champions of the different sectors and the development of venture capital. The energy deficit and the weak infrastructural platforms cripple the performance and competitiveness of industries, causing substantial additional costs.

63. With regard to handicrafts, the fact that handicraft goods and services are not competitive is due to the craftsmen’s lack of production and organizational capacities and the insufficient and unsuitable distribution channels, the inappropriate institutional, legal and organizational framework of the sector and the obsolescence of the actors’ training, apprenticeship and reskilling system. Tourism is still characterized by lack of visibility of the destination Senegal, primarily due to the inadequate structuring and the poor quality of the supply, the non-existence of a coherent and attractive framework for the competitiveness of the sector and lack of multi-sectoral spirit.

64. Moreover, the constraints to the growth of trade are reflected in the disruptions in the supply of the domestic market, combined with the high prices of consumer goods and services. They are linked to four major causes: qualitative and quantitative supply deficiency, insufficient means of intervention and supervision of markets and distribution channels, quantitative and qualitative deficiency in the supply of goods and services both for the domestic and foreign markets, lack of competition between private actors and congested distribution channels.

65. For its part, the energy sub-sector continues to weigh on the performance of all components of the national economy. This sub-sector is marked, among others, by the low volume of supply and the poor quality of electricity service in the urban and rural areas; recurrent power cuts which impede the performance of economic activities; lack of information and sensitization on the rational use of energy and technical failures of public and private operators. This situation is attributable to the quasi-exclusive dependence on oil imports and the non-existence of adequate mechanisms to cushion exogenous shocks. The poor refining capacity, the desuetude of the logistics at the Dakar port, the obsolescence of the production ad transport infrastructure as well as the delay in restructuring SENELEC and the operational recovery of ASER, in addition to the slowness in setting up the regulatory framework for the development of renewable energy are not conducive to an energy efficient policy for the diversification of energy sources.

66. The transport sub-sector is still confronted with the narrowness of the unevenly distributed road network, insufficient urban public transport offer and the run-down state of the vehicle fleet and rail (in particular, the Dakar-Bamako railway) and port infrastructure, among others. The limited access to the rural areas which is a constraint to the development of potentialities of these areas and the overloading, impede the enhancement of mobility and road security.

1.4.2. Underdeveloped human capital

67. Human capacities are skills, knowledge and aptitudes that enable a society to create capital and technology, sustainably process and develop natural resources for greater use and promote an environment conducive to the improvement of productivity. The inadequacy of human capital has, for a long time, contributed to the low level of productivity. It is measured by the level of training and acquisition of knowledge through professional experience, on the one hand, and health care expenditure, on the other hand. Well-trained and healthy men constitute sources of production of goods and services and contribute to competitiveness because of the existence of strong complementarities between factors of production, human capital and physical capital.

68. Studies conducted in some developing countries, revealed a significant impact of education and training on economic growth (a contribution to growth of 23.2% for Ghana, 16% for Nigeria, 15.9%for Korea). The development of human capital as the key objective for the improvement of competitiveness supposes a positive development of the education and health indicators.

69. However, in Senegal, the levels of education and skills are still relatively low and the areas covered are too limited. This results in low productivity due to poor proficiency and low degree of application of science and technology; thus the use of rudimentary production techniques are still observed. According to statistics provided by the last survey on poverty in Senegal (ESPS-2011), 72.4% of heads of households have no education.

70. The low productivity is particularly accentuated by the fact that the low level of education is not compensated by continuing training, which is almost non-existent both on the side of the State and of private firms which hardly invest in the upgrading their staff’s knowledge.

1.4.3. Insufficient access to financing

71. The role of the private sector is essentially limited by the low level of private investments, especially in the informal sector; the difficulties of access to funding and land; a business environment less conducive to private investment and a way of organizing businesses that does not foster their expansion.

72. The financing system¹⁵ has substantially grown in size during the 2000-2011 period from 22.5% to 39.8%. Besides, the extensive campaign to promote the use of banking services and non-cash means of payment led to an increase in the rate of access to banking services from 6.2%, in 2009, to close to 19%¹⁶, at the end of 2010. Domestic credit rose from 1122 billion, in 2006, to 2122 billion CFAF, in2011, with aprominent share representing credit to the economy.

73. Moreover, the financial system is marked by a high concentration of credit allocated by banks to major companies. With regard to the breakdown per business segment in percentage of the total loans between 2006 and 2010, services, transportation and communications increased from 30% to 34.5% while industry represents 28.9% and 21%. The third activity sector comprising wholesale and retail trade recorded 18.9% in 2006 and 2010.

74. Besides, it is worth noting that the domestic credit granted to the private sector in percentage of GDP slightly exceeds the average for low-income African countries: it rose from 23% in 2006 to 29% in 2011. However, there is need to strengthen in order to overcome difficulties of businesses to access financing. SMEs and SMIs have difficulty to access financing because of the high amount of bank guarantees required which can go up to 150% of the value of credit requested, depending on the sector. Moreover, they turn to costly alternative solutions like self-financing and supplier credit or to Decentralized Financing Systems (DFS), with low financing capacities and refinancing difficulties. Resorting to the sub-regional financial market is still very marginal because of the lack of promotion of stock-market culture. The diversification and adaptation of products as well as the reform of required guarantees still constitute challenges for the expansionof the financial market.

75. With regard to microfinance, the obstacles facing the DFS are: insufficient supervision, deterioration in the credit portfolio and lack of credibility of information provided by some DFS. The latter also suffer from the non-existence of a deposit guarantee fund, lack of familiarity with the cycle and characteristics of existing agricultural sub-sectors and value chains that make them up, lack of savings culture and difficulties to formulate needs in the rural world. These constraints give rise to the average percentage rate of charge estimated at between 12% and 40% in 2010, while the wear rate fixed at community level is27%.

1.5.1. Good Governance and Rule of Law

76. The political and economic variables like democracy, the rule of law, the existence of functional and efficient institutions, accountability, integrity and good governance constitute the elements that contribute to growth and competitiveness. The absence or weakness of these various factors has led to poor performance and distortions prejudicial to an optimum allocation of resources.

77. Public administration reforms were initiated within the framework of the different policies. However, they remained essentially focused on the quality of the macroeconomic framework, which was considered as the most important determinant of growth. The deficiency of the method of organization and incentive systems, i.e. the institutional framework that should underpin the relationships between the different actors of society, is a major constraint to emergence. The poor socio-economic performance can be explained by the distortions in the functioning of the institutions of the Republic. Difficulties to communicate and coordinate the roles of the different actors, namely the State, actors of decentralization, the civil society and the private sector have led to the inefficiency of institutions. The poor application of rules, the citizens’ difficult access to information and public services, the slow procedures, lack of transparency, corruption, the use of public services and community facilities at the detriment of public interest encourage them in allocation of resources and lead to poor economic and social resources.

78. Moreover, administrative governance requires the physical and operational modernization of structures, human resources development, the intelligent coordination of the different programmes, the promotion of the participatory process in public action and the simplification of procedures. It should also be exercised in a result-based management culture.

1.5.2. Preservation and restoration of natural resources

79. The abusive use of natural resources for consumption purposes is the main justification of the state of environmental degradation. With the options of creating opportunities for the populations, this challenge seems to be very important for the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors. Environmental threats have become real and are already reflected in the declining rainfall and biomass, among others, while the soils have at the same time become less and less fertile. Without an efficient management capable of reversing this trend, it will be impossible to attain a steady growth in production.

80. This requirement is more pronounced in the agricultural sector where natural capital is the primary means of production and the operating systems have a direct impact on the acceleration of degradation. With the development of organic inputs and the use of non-destructive means of production, the chances of increasing productivity and stepping up the income of actors are on the increase and compliance with the principle of intergenerational solidarity becomes easier. It will therefore entail being in line with the process of reversing the trend, notably by building incentive systems conducive to sustainable growth and the preservation of natural resources.

81. It will also be reflected in public policy options, ensure the preservation of biodiversity, job creation with a view to significantly reducing poverty and inequalities.

1.5.3. Profile of entrepreneurship and job creation

82. In view of its demographic profile, Senegal is confronted with the obligation of creating thousands of jobs this year even though the current configuration of the economic system does not produce enough job opportunities. The national supply is way below the demand. The State has multiplied the initiatives to fight against unemployment. Self-employment and the culture of entrepreneurship were promoted. Unfortunately, most Senegalese businesses operate on the basis of a model of entrepreneurship, which links them directly to public finances.

83. Because of its weakness and profile, the national private sector recruits at an insufficient pace to absorb the national employment demand. Its concentration on the B2G model undermine the job creation potential because public treasury difficulties lead to the lethargy of the private sector. Besides, the traditional public service cannot be a source of massive job creation. With the promotion of ICT within the public administration and the concern to rationalize public spending, the massive recruitments or the systematic replacement of each retiree are no longer appropriate.

84. Thus, the major challenge to be addressed involves encouraging competitive entrepreneurship, under the formal B2B and B2C models, in growth areas and sectors, through economic structuring into value chains.

2.1.1. Public policy efficiency

86. The preparation of appropriate public policies highlights the major role of sectoral planning units and is a precondition to the implementation of the NSESD. From the standpoint of efficiency and efficacy, adjustments should be made in the following areas: the quality of information systems such as the national statistical system, the selection of steering instruments, evaluation of public policy implementation mechanisms, strengthening capacities to analyze public policy and finally, evaluation of the impacts of the economic and social policy.

87. It will also involve maintaining a healthy macroeconomic framework in line with the new growth model and preparing relevant sectoral policies, underpinned by structural reforms. These reforms primarily concern the incentive systems in favour of effort and work, rational risk taking, the enterprise and profit, in exchange for rent and interest. Thus, the national economy, both the real sector and the financial sector, shall strive, through regulation and market incentives, to upgrade the populations’ living standard and address the challenges of demographic transition.

88. The monetary policy shall contribute to the creation of an efficient financial infrastructure, while taking guarantee measures that promote risk-taking, in particular, by banks.

89. The organization and strategic and operational planning will complete these incentive schemes. All the organizations participating directly or indirectly in wealth creation and the improvement of the efficiency of collective action, should be concerned by the new incentive scheme. There is need to guarantee market efficiency, maintain competition and provide the backing of public resources to strengthen private sector competitiveness.

2.1.2. Viability of the macroeconomic framework

90. The State will ensure the stability of the macroeconomic framework by containing public deficit, reducing external imbalance with a view to significantly improving the living conditions of the populations.

91. In this regard, output growth should be built on a more solid foundation, through a revenue distribution policy which first promotes productive work, rewards private initiative and overcomes some forms of disparities, notably regional and gender-related. Resource distribution should be directed towards activities with the maximum added value and creating the greatest number of jobs. This calls for an effective targeting of interventions to ensure the optimum distribution of public resources.

92. The reduction of the balance of trade deficit through more dynamic exports and greater imports selectivity, a significant contribution of agricultural production to wealth creation, a business climate conducive to investments and risk-taking, improved competitiveness, should contribute to ushering the national economy into the path of prosperity.

93. Output growth should be based on more solid foundations and revenue distribution that is more focused on productive work and the reduction of social and spatial disparities. In an economy marked by resource shortage, there is need to provide as much clarification on budgetary trade-offs as possible, in order to guarantee the efficiency of public spending. At the same time, the debt policy should no longer be evaluated on the basis of viability criteria alone, but on the basis of considerations relative to the opportunity cost of capital and best alternative uses allowed by the borders of economic opportunities//the possibility of the economy.

94. The policy should be formulated after a large consultation, at national and regional level with the participation of all actors (State, private, civil societies and beneficiaries). Through this participatory process, each sector and each region should be able to evaluate the implementation of economic polices over the past years, define the guidelines, identify the potentialities, determine priorities and attendant measures necessary for the success of the new policy. The NSESD intends to mobilize all development actors around these strategic elements.

2.1.3. Demographic window of opportunity

95. The economic and social policy thus implemented should, in the final analysis, be beneficial to the populations. In fact, the interaction between demography and economy will be at the center of the economic and social development issue.

96. The Senegalese population is predominantly young. The economic support ratio which measures the capacity of the population to contribute to the current production, has been on the increase since 1998 and will be maintained at that level up to 2025, before declining. Senegal should therefore take advantage of the structure of its population per age between 2000 and 2025 during which it will have an enormous active population to contribute to national production.

97. Actually, with the expected decline in the demographic dependency ratio¹⁷, a «window of demographic opportunity » is opened (2000to2025). This phase corresponds to the period in which proactive policies should be implemented in order to benefit from the positive impact of demography on economic growth. In fact, if the appropriate economic and social policies are implemented, significant effects will be registered in the fight against poverty. Beyond this period, the fruits of economic growth might be offset by the increase in the active population.

98. While the youthfulness of the population is a major advantage for economic growth, it constitutes a core issue for basic social services. The quest for better health coverage, a quality education system, and access to water, sanitation and a decent living environment, are all areas that need investments. Moreover, there is need to ensure protection against social scourges, eradicate the exploitation of children and improve civic and citizen education services.

2.3.1. Pillar 1 : Growth, productivity and wealth creation

112. The consolidation of a healthy and stable macroeconomic framework in a business environment conducive to investments, helps promote global economic productivity. In this respect, the implementation of policies to develop productive sectors and support production guaranteeing competitiveness, calls for the prior strengthening of production sectors. It primarily involves energy and infrastructure, which are the key sectors for the integration of the economic fabric, and technological factors like Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and telecommunications. Thus, in order to accelerate growth, the development of agriculture and rural economy should be combined with the promotion of SME/SMI and the support of the industrial sector and other market service activities. Besides, the productive sub-sector structuring process, already launched in connection with the growth cluster, should be maintained and strengthened in order to make the most of the potentials of these sectors and sub-sectors in terms of contribution to economic growth and the diversification of growth sources. In this context, an efficient integration of the external environment guarantees the chances of redeploying the national economy.

2.3.2. Pillar 2: Human capital, social protection and sustainable development

167. The satisfaction of basic social needs is an essential factor in the promotion of sustainable human development. Actually, access to basic social services has a direct impact on the quality of life. Moreover, it determines the economic opportunities offered to the populations. Without access to these goods and public or collective services, inequality in the face of opportunities will prevail at the geographical, community and individual levels.

168. Thus, the 2013-2017 Strategy includes the substantial increase in the offer of these infrastructure services financed through resources drawn from the acceleration of growth. Improving and expanding social protection to the different segments of the population, achieving the MDG and pursuing the setting of prerequisites for economic emergence require the State to have adequate budget room.

169. Besides, the initiatives, projects and programmes with high ecological, social and economic impact on sustainable development, on the one hand, and a greater consideration of the transversality of the environment, on the other, will receive outstanding support. Climate change whose effects are being increasingly felt, are factors of hydrological and thermal disturbances that can have an unfavourable impact on agricultural production, in the absence of the appropriate technologies.

170. The new Strategy is intended to be a realistic framework federating all the actions that contribute to economic and social development, through access to basic social services, the protection of vulnerable groups and the promotion of green economy. More specifically, Senegal intends to give concrete expression to quality education for all, the management of mother and child health, access to an better living environment and the reduction of environmental degradation. There is also need to ensure that vocational training modules that match the needs of the labour market are accessible to the needy populations. Finally, there are plans to establish a global framework for social protection and disaster risks prevention and management mechanisms.

2.3.3. Pillar 3: Governance, institutions, peace and security

196. An inappropriate governance profile is a major constraint for development. The experience of the 1980-2010 period was valuable enough to build consensus on a number of elements that can be identified as rules governing the development process: (i) peace, democracy and human security; (ii) control of public finances for the timely conclusion of transactions with the government; (iii) alignment of the composition of public expenditures to development priorities; (iv) ethics, transparency and constant focus on accountability and the effectiveness of public spending; (v) the existence of functional frameworks for dialogue on public policies. Compliance with these five (5) rules calls for commitment to shared values so as to create and maintain mutual confidence among the various actors: Government and public administrations, local government units, private sector, civil society and technical and financial partners.

197. Local government units, civil society organizations and decentralized services are the primary implementation channels and providers of essential services. Hence, all elected officials in local government units and in the Parliament must be fully involved in the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of core public services.

198. The 2013-2017 Strategy anticipates the setting up of a suitable budgetary, legal and institutional framework as well as a more efficient and effective implementation of programmes and initiatives supported and financed by the Government. In this regard, the participation of grassroots communities is necessary during both the design and implementation phases of government programmes.

199. This Strategy paper identifies economic and financial viability, the participation of local populations and the protection and promotion of the fundamental rights of men and women as areas that should back the development process. The efficiency and effectiveness of public spending should be ensured. Similarly, public administration reforms should eliminate excessive red tape so as to provide users with high quality services. Furthermore, spatial development and the implementation of the decentralization charter are indispensable in a dual planning process and for a greater involvement of grassroots communities.

3.1.1. Financial planning and linkage with the national budget

219. Phase 1 : Development of implementation instruments. The public policies formulated in the Staregy are henceforth implemented in line with national budget instruments in order to move the key programmes forward, provide public services and support the competitive advantages of the economy. More specifically, within the framework of the multi-annual budget programing, it involves systematically monitoring the consistency between the PAP and NSESD, on the one hand and, the Finance Act and the Three-Year Public Investments Programme (PTIP), on the other.

220. Phase 2 : PAP Needs evaluation. The evaluation of PAP amounts is based on the costs of priority projects and programmes. For the sub-sectors comprising MDGs, the amounts were taken up again on the basis of consolidation objectives that have already been assessed and included in the various ongoing programmes. The amounts of the PTIP programmes served as reference for the reevaluation of needs. For other sub-sectors and areas for which no programmes have been evaluated or in which all projects were not formulated, information on targeted objectives, results indicators and unit costs are used to determine the funding needs.

221. A method was thus developed to ascertain whether the amounts proposed in these programmes would help achieve the MDG and economic growth objectives. This method is based on the principle of elasticity of indicators in relation to the allocated budget. Simulations were made on the basis of a methodology consisting in determining the evolution of the selected indicator and, as an indirect result, the volume of financing required to be included in the budget to attain the target by the set timeframe.

222. Phase 3: Scheduling. Funding needs for priority actions, identified in the PAP, are then compared to the resources available in the existing programmes or in the PTIP. The difference between the total amount required- NSESD amount- and the acquired and consolidated financing express the additional need – financing gap – for the achievement of the priority objectives.

223. In the light of these considerations, it seems necessary to integrate the resources mobilized in this connection in the State’s planning and programming process and thus ensure traceability, transparency and the sense of responsibility required for the management of contributions to finance activities identified in the NSESD.

224. In this regard, the implementation of the Strategy is expected to help strengthen partnership with bilateral and multilateral donors who are specifically urged to coordinate their contribution in terms of mobilized volumes, procedures and monitoring-evaluation. On the basis of this new partnership, donors are expected to strengthen the synergy between the various terms and conditions of official development aid, in accordance with the principles of the Paris Declaration (2005) and the Accra Programme of Action (2008) on the effectiveness of Official Development Aid. They will be encouraged to give preference to budget support, integrate the funds earmarked for projects in a global approach and /or sectoral programme or within the common resource basket mechanism, at least for the funding of priority activities.

3.1.2. Mobilization of financial resources

225. All actions selected by actors during the participatory process and expected to have a significant impact on economic and social development were listed in a matrix of measures. The priority objectives and corresponding actions were identified within the framework of a priority action plan (PAP) covering the 2013-2017 period. To determine priority actions, the lines of actions were assessed²⁶ on the basis of their possible contribution to economic growth, in particular, and the improvement of the living conditions of households.

226. For the sustainable financing of the NSESD, the resource mobilization approach is based on the following elements: domestic public resources and the different forms of support by technical and financial partners, namely budget support, grants and concessional loans. Moreover, the State intends to diversify the funding sources of priority investments: the national private sector and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) have a key role to play.

227. In connection with the implementation of the Strategy, three scenarios were considered, in order to align the choice of public investments with the resource mobilization capacity. These are the trend scenario, the optimistic scenario and the pessimistic scenario. These scenarios were developed thanks to a prioritization methodology which was used to classify the global action plan according to priorityactions and measures, of average and low importance in relation to their contribution to economic growth, the reduction of inequalities and the improvement of the populations’ living conditions. Thus, all the actions set forth are ranked in order of priority, and in accordance with the global expectations of the NSESD.

228. The trend scenario –or baseline scenario – adopted²⁷ with IMF has an average annual growth rate of 4.9% and a deficit of 4.1%, with total capital expenditure standing at 5 276 billion CFAF for the 2013-2017 period. It corresponds to the trend of the entire PTIP expenditure: all the projects and programmes being implemented and new agreements that are almost completed. In this scenario, the NSESD action plan totals 3 646 billion CFAF of capital expenditure in this scenario.

Table 2:

Formation of the base scenario, 2013-2017.

Table 2:

Formation of the base scenario, 2013-2017.

Baseline scenario	Growth %	Public Deficit % of GDP	Current Expenditure Billions of CFAF	Capital expenditure Billions of CFAF			Total Expenditure Billions of CFAF
Years			NSESD		PTIP off NSESD	Total PTIP
2011	2,6	6,7	1234			718	1952
2012	3.7	5,9	1282			875	2157
2013	4.3	4,9	1278	873	39	912	2190
2014	4,8	4,3	1334	1026	-52	974	2308
2015	5,0	3,9	1388	890	173	106	2451
2016	5,1	3,7	1473	481	643	112	2597
2017	5,2	3,5	1586	375	828	120	2789
Average	4,9	4,1
Total			7059	3646	1631	5276	12335

View Table

Table 2:

Formation of the base scenario, 2013-2017.

Baseline scenario	Growth %	Public Deficit % of GDP	Current Expenditure Billions of CFAF	Capital expenditure Billions of CFAF			Total Expenditure Billions of CFAF
Years			NSESD		PTIP off NSESD	Total PTIP
2011	2,6	6,7	1234			718	1952
2012	3.7	5,9	1282			875	2157
2013	4.3	4,9	1278	873	39	912	2190
2014	4,8	4,3	1334	1026	-52	974	2308
2015	5,0	3,9	1388	890	173	106	2451
2016	5,1	3,7	1473	481	643	112	2597
2017	5,2	3,5	1586	375	828	120	2789
Average	4,9	4,1
Total			7059	3646	1631	5276	12335

229. The optimistic scenario -or NSESD scenario- reflects the political choice to lay emphasis on agriculture, energy and infrastructure. It adds to the NSESD, the capital expenditure of the trend scenario, all the funding of new major actions. In this scenario, the total amount of the NSESD action plan is5 139 billion CFAF for the period, with additional investments of about1 493 billion CFAF constituting a financing gap, about half of which is expected from the State. The growth rate would reach²⁸ an average of 6.8% per annum, while public deficit in percentage of GDP would drop from 6.1% in 2013 to 3.6% in 2017, with an average annual level of 5.0%.

Table 3:

Growth and the public deficit 2013-17

Table 3:

Growth and the public deficit 2013-17

Optimistic scenario	Growth	Public Deficit	Additional Expenditure
	in %	% of GDP	Bill of CFAF
2011	2.6	6.7
2012	3.7	5.9
2013	5.6	6.1	120
2014	6.5	5.5	259
2015	7.0	4.8	322
2016	7.5	4.6	412
2017	7.2	3.6	380
Average	6.8	5.0
Total			1493

View Table

Table 3:

Growth and the public deficit 2013-17

Optimistic scenario	Growth	Public Deficit	Additional Expenditure
	in %	% of GDP	Bill of CFAF
2011	2.6	6.7
2012	3.7	5.9
2013	5.6	6.1	120
2014	6.5	5.5	259
2015	7.0	4.8	322
2016	7.5	4.6	412
2017	7.2	3.6	380
Average	6.8	5.0
Total			1493

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Evolution of growth rate and Deficit

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 194; 10.5089/9781475541762.002.A001

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230. The breakdown of the total NSESD financing shows that the first pillar represents 61.3% of costs, against 31.9% for the second and 6.8% for the third (cf. Table-4). Likewise, regardless of whether it is from the State or foreign funding, emphasis seems to be laid on this first pillar, with respectively 54.4% and 73.2%. This relatively high level is due to the high unit costs of energy and transport infrastructure.

Table 4:

Distribution of NSESD financing (optimistic) based on the strategic axes (%).

Table 4:

Distribution of NSESD financing (optimistic) based on the strategic axes (%).

Financing	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	Total
PILLAR 1 : Growth, productivity and wealth creation
NSESD AMOUNT	61.7	59.0	63.3	61.2	61.5	61.3
ACCOMPLISHMENT	64.1	62.7	65.3	67.6	68.1	64.9
STATE	55.9	55.9	55.0	49.1	51.9	54.4
TFPs	72.1	68.0	72.6	80.0	83.0	73.2
GAP	44.9	44.3	57.7	53.7	55.0	52,5
PILLAR 2 : Human capital, social protection and sustainable development
NSESD AMOUNT	30.0	34.9	30.4	32.5	31.1	31.9
ACCOMPLISHMENT	26.7	30.1	26.8	22.5	19.9	26.5
STATE	29.4	33.5	33.6	33.4	30.8	32.1
TFPs	24.1	27.5	22.1	15.2	9.9	21.9
GAP	53.4	53.9	40.2	44.2	42.0	45,2
PILLAR 3 : Governance, institutions, peace and security
NSESD AMOUNT	8.3	6.1	6.3	6.3	7.4	6.8
ACCOMPLISHMENT	9.2	7.2	7.8	9.9	12.0	8.7
STATE	14.7	10.6	11.4	17.4	17.3	13.5
TFPs	3.8	4.5	5.3	4.8	7.1	4.8
GAP	1.7	1.8	2.1	2.1	3.0	2.3

View Table

Table 4:

Distribution of NSESD financing (optimistic) based on the strategic axes (%).

Financing	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	Total
PILLAR 1 : Growth, productivity and wealth creation
NSESD AMOUNT	61.7	59.0	63.3	61.2	61.5	61.3
ACCOMPLISHMENT	64.1	62.7	65.3	67.6	68.1	64.9
STATE	55.9	55.9	55.0	49.1	51.9	54.4
TFPs	72.1	68.0	72.6	80.0	83.0	73.2
GAP	44.9	44.3	57.7	53.7	55.0	52,5
PILLAR 2 : Human capital, social protection and sustainable development
NSESD AMOUNT	30.0	34.9	30.4	32.5	31.1	31.9
ACCOMPLISHMENT	26.7	30.1	26.8	22.5	19.9	26.5
STATE	29.4	33.5	33.6	33.4	30.8	32.1
TFPs	24.1	27.5	22.1	15.2	9.9	21.9
GAP	53.4	53.9	40.2	44.2	42.0	45,2
PILLAR 3 : Governance, institutions, peace and security
NSESD AMOUNT	8.3	6.1	6.3	6.3	7.4	6.8
ACCOMPLISHMENT	9.2	7.2	7.8	9.9	12.0	8.7
STATE	14.7	10.6	11.4	17.4	17.3	13.5
TFPs	3.8	4.5	5.3	4.8	7.1	4.8
GAP	1.7	1.8	2.1	2.1	3.0	2.3

231. The pessimistic scenario anticipates an extreme case of weakened economic vitality that could lead the economy to a slowdown in GDP resulting in a growth of about 3.2%. This scenario is based on the principal assumptions of a difficult external environment (gloomy activity and rise in oil prices and food products) and, internally, on the revival of the energy sector that is slower than expected and a delayed settlement of the Malian crisis. In such a scenario, the trend scenario expenditure would drop by 554 billion CFAF (Consolidated Investment Budget and Operating Budget), unless partners take over some projects with a direct impact on the MDG indicators. In this respect, primacy will be given to priority actions alone and the expected public deficit would be 4.2% (annual average).

232. In short, all these scenarios are constituted on the basis of the financial resources mobilization and absorption potential, strict adherence to the « sustainability » of public debt, community budget rules and international commitments.

3.2.1 Mechanism to monitor and evaluate the Strategy

233. The monitoring and evaluation mechanism helps actors to follow-up and analyze the results obtained throughout the implementation of the Strategy. It provides the opportunity to regularly expaln the objectives of the Strategy, ensure that they continue to be realistic and verifiable and readjust them during the implementation phase, in case the trend of the indicators is not in line with projections. Following the evaluation of the implementation of the national statistics system (SSN) and to ensure the enhanced monitoring of the economic and social policy, the action plan of the Statistics Master Plan (SDS) was reviewed and readjusted during the 2013-2017 period to be more effective and capable of producing and disseminating quality statistical data.

234. To this end, two steering levels were defined in the institutional mechanism which will be governed by regulatory texts:

235. At the political level:

• - A Presidential Evaluation Council meets once every two years and is responsible for evaluating and deciding on the possible orientations of the Strategy based on the major results observed (in the mid-term) and international issues;

• - A National Monitoring and Orientation Council chaired by the Prime Minister is set up. This council is composed by the Government, the representatives of technical and financial partners, the civil society, the private sector, parliament and local governments. It meets every six (6) months to evaluate the state of progress in the implementation of the strategy and issue the necessary directives for the effective implementation of economic and social policy. To this end, it is in charge of periodically organizing a joint annual review of the Strategy;

• - A Parliamentary Monitoring Committee: this committee enables parliamentarians to monitor the implementation of the national Strategy. It meets once a year. Its chairman is designated by the National Assembly.

• - The Minister of the Economy and Finance presents a report to the meetings of these different organs.

236. At the operational level: there are two components: the coordination of the implementation of sectoral policies and steering the Strategy in each region. We therefore have:

• - Ministerial Committees for monitoring-evaluation: ministries play the role of central relays in the implementation of the Strategy by assuming the operational supervision of the implementation of priority actions. The sectoral committee, chaired by the Minister in charge of the sector concerned, is responsible for monitoring the implementation of sectoral priorities and sectoral reviews on the state of progress of the sectoral policy contained in the NSESD. The committee meets at least once every quarter. The studies, planning and monitoring units provide technical secretariat services to this committee;

• - Regional monitoring-evaluation committee: this committee is chaired by the Regional Governor while the Regional Development Agency (ARD) provides technical secretariat services. It regroups all categories of actors intervening in the region. Each committee meets, as needed, once every quarter to assess the state of progress in the implementation of the strategy, in accordance with the local vision. Every regional committee prepares an annual report on the state of progress of the Strategy in the covered region and makes recommendations to accelerate the priority actions implementation process at regional level²⁹.

237. A technical secretariat run by the UCSPE will be responsible for applying and coordinating the global NSESD monitoring-evaluation mechanism. It ensures the effective implementation of various activities of the process and serves as secretariat to the National Monitoring and Orientation Council. It will also ensure the proper coordination of actors’ interventions in the implementation of the Strategy and will prepare the report to be used in the joint annual review.

3.2.2 Actors, appropriation and mutual responsibility

238. The Strategy defined is the only unifying framework and reference with regard to interventions. To this end, all development actors align and harmonize their actions around these national objectives that take into account Senegal’s commitments to achieve the priority objectives of the Strategy, notably the MDG. It is essential to involve all actors in the implementation of a system oriented towards development results in order to share the same understanding of the mission and especially strive together to achieve the results.

239. The place and role of Parliament in the democratic and republican system should be put to fully played to enable elected representatives to efficiently discharge their mission of controlling government action. A single direction was thus given to for modernizing Parliament and improving its efficiency by building the parliamentarians’ capacities in the control of government action.

240. The steering bodies at both national and regional or local level, mobilize all stakeholders, namely State actors, local communities, the civil society, the private sector, Parliament and technical and financial partners. To this end, the State is expected to support the functioning of these bodies (local communities, civil society, private sector). The Strategy is implemented by the various development actors working at the grassroots. The composition, structuring and functioning of all these organs will be fixed through regulatory acts. A participatory evaluation approach involving both the steering bodies and actors, will be adopted.

3.2.3 Monitoring and evaluation indicators

241. The system providing information on the implementation of the strategy is the second component, which completes the monitoring and evaluation mechanism. It gives an overview of the progress made and their impact on the populations’ living conditions. It is linked to the steering mechanism by a well-structured and coherent information system. For that purpose, it uses indicators and a communication system. It is thus vital to institute a system to monitor and evaluate these activities so as to measure the progress made towards the targeted objectives and the results to be attained. In this regard, the « logical framework» of the Strategy constitutes the coherence framework through which the information required to fathom and gauge the progress made in the implementation of the Strategy is defined in terms of identification, means, deadlines, sources of production and resources for the implementation of the programmes and projects.

242. A specific information system is attached to each of the three institutional levels. A global information system will be set up for the planning of the Strategy while a sectoral and regional information system will be used at the operational level. The Strategy’s monitoring-evaluation information system will derive from these distinct but complementary information systems.

243. The NSESD information system will consist in a dashboard of indicators, dubbed restricted list of indicators, which provides information about the state of progress of the implementation of priority actions. To this end, the national statistics system, as producer of official statistics, is the key data source for the consolidation of the political, economic and social decision-making process It has at its disposal, since June 2007, a National Statistics Development Strategy reference framework document (SNDS, 2013-2017), the operational application of which is the Statistics Master Plan (SDS). It is scheduled for updating in 2012-2013, to take into account the fresh needs instatistical data.

244. The information system will be operated by two technical committees:

• - An indicators monitoring Committee is set up within the Technical Committee of Statistics Programmes (CTPS), placed under the authority of ANSD which defines its composition and functioning. It is responsible for settingout the methodology for monitoring indicators and their target/objective for the 2013-2017 period. The committee will ensure the regular updating of monitoring indicators, in support to the institutional steering organs of the Strategy, in accordance with their schedule. It proposes mechanisms for the conduct of priority surveys to update the indicators, notably those on the restricted list.

• - A Committee to monitor the Priority Action Plan formed, among others, by UCSPE, DGF, DGCPT, DPEE, AGS, APIX and DCEF which chairsit, will be responsible for the annual evaluation of the Priority Action Plan (PAP). The said committee will ensure greater visibility of the priority actions financing monitoring process and reporting during the quarterly meetings of the national council. It will also ascertain consistency in the scheduling and implementation between the MTEF and MTSEF, on the one hand, and the PAP, on the other. It will guarantee consistency between the PAP and the programming of the PTIP. It shall verify the reality of Results-Based Management (RBM), notably by analyzing the implemented budget and the results achieved and updating the macroeconomic framework.

245. The communication system hinges on the dissemination of information on the state of progress of the implementation of the Strategy. It should involve all actors for greaterd appropriation and a coherent linkage of transversal policies in the national priorities. The progress reports should be produced on an annual basis to serve as a reference during the preparation of the State budget as well as that of local governments and partnership agreements with technical and financial partners. Communication should therefore be made through a wide dissemination of results among all actors involved to assess the quality of implementation of the Strategy. Days of review (sectoral or global) constitute an ideal framework for sharing and exchanging information on the registered results and an opportunity to make recommendations on the implementation of the economic and social policy at national, local or sectoral level. The critical participation of research and study centres will play a key role in the dissemination of these results.