Barnett, Steven, and Rolando Ossowski, 2002, “Operational Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Oil-Produing Countries,” IMF Working Paper 02/177, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Behar, Alberto, 2012, “Sustainable fiscal breakeven: a measure based on wealth and not production”, forthcoming IMF Working Paper, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Baunsgaard, T., M. Villafuerte, M. Poplawski-Ribeiro, and C. Richmond, 2012, Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries, IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 12/04 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Dabán, T., 2011, “Strengthening Chile’s Rule-Based Fiscal Framework,” IMF Working Paper 11/77 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Dabla-Norris E., J. Brumby, A. Kyobe, Z. Mills, and C. Papageorgiou, 2011, “Investing in Public Investment: An Index of Public Investment Efficiency,” IMF Working Paper 11/37 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Horton. M, M. Villafuerte, G. Dobrescu, H. Hoorn (MCM), and M. Hussain, 2010, “Nigeria: Establishing a Sovereign Wealth Fund”, IMF TA report, unpublished, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
IMF, 2012, “Proposed Revision to the 2007 Version of the Manual of Fiscal Transparency,” (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Ming, Kyung-Seal, 2012, “Mongolia’s Fiscal Framework to Deal with Non-renewable Resources”, (Washington: International Monetary Fund)
Prepared by M. Albino-War, with helpful comments from Fund staff from the Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) and the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD).
In this note, oil refers to both oil and gas resources. Oil revenue represents about 95 percent of total hydrocarbon revenue.
Oil and gas account for about 92 percent of exports and 70 percent of fiscal revenues.
The nonoil deficit in percent of non-oil GDP has increased by more than 10 percentage points of non-oil GDP to about 40 percent relative to the pre 2008 global crisis levels. The fiscal stimulus, while initially appropriated to mitigate the impact of the crisis, has placed the non-oil fiscal position well above the sustainable level of about 35 percent implied by the permanent income rule and could generate overheating pressures as non-oil output has now reached potential.
The fiscal accounts presented to parliament during the budget process are based on a wide definition of central government operations as include the operations of the state budget along with those of the oil fund and the social protection fund, extrabudgetary funds, with key role in government revenue and spending.
A non-oil balance presidential guideline (2004) consistent with constant real consumption out of oil wealth was never observed.
See IMF (2012a) and IMF (2012b).
For a discussion of the value-at-risk analysis see IMF (2012a).
Other crucial elements to foster efficiency in public investment include: (i) selection of projects with clear links to the development strategy; (ii) an independent “gate-keeper” before approvals; (iii) procurement process in line with best practices; and (iv) post-evaluation of costs and impact assessments.
This note reflects many of the findings and recommendations of a March 2012 Technical Assistance mission by the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets department.
Prepared by B. Quillin (MCD).
Shahmoradi, A., 2012, “Exchange Rate Policy and Macroeconomic Costs in Azerbaijan: Insights from a DGSE Model,” Republic of Azerbaijan: Selected Issues, International Monetary Fund.
Adapted from Ötker-Robe, I., D. Vávra, and others, 2007, “Moving to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility: Operational Aspects Based on Lessons from Detailed Country Experiences,” International Monetary Fund.
Duttagupta, R., G. Fernandez, and C. Karacadag, 2004, “From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving Toward Exchange Rate Flexibility,” IMF Working Paper WP/04/126.
Duttagupta, R., G. Fernandez, and C. Karacadag, 2005, “Moving to a Flexible Exchange Rate: How, When, and How Fast? International Monetary Fund, Economic Issues 38.
Mineshima, A. and N. Westelius, 2010, “Moving Toward More Exchange Rate Flexibility,” unpublished, International Monetary Fund.