I.1.1. Economic situation from 1960 to 1990

The review of economic performance is based on analysis of the macroeconomic framework, conditions in the sectors that drive growth, and economic infrastructure. The economic history of independent Niger has gone through three major periods:

A rural economy from 1960 to 1975. During this period, Niger’s economy was dominated by the rural sector, with only six percent of the population residing in urban areas. About 60 percent of GDP came from the agricultural sector and administration represented seven to eight percent. The very rural nature of the economy was perfectly symbolized by its low degree of monetarization. In 1965, the country’s money supply was 7.4 billion CFAF, or about nine percent of GDP. Peanuts were the engine of Niger’s monetized economy throughout these years, on a par with their importance in terms of exports (50% to 70%), farmers’ incomes, and modern trade through the Niger Peanut Corporation (SONARA), and informal trade with peanut buyers.

The uranium boom from 1975 to 1982. Starting in 1976, climate conditions recovered and grain harvests were again in line with needs. However, this period was primarily marked by the start-up of uranium mining. It began in 1971 with the production of about two billion CFAF but expanded starting in 1975 with production of 11 billion CFAF, reaching its maximum of 102 billion CFAF in 1982. Uranium represents nearly three-quarters of exports.

This rapid growth was due to the combination of the larger quantities produced, increasing from 400 tons in 1971, to 1,300 tons in 1975, to 4,250 tons in 1982, and sales prices boosted by the petroleum shock of 1973. The sales price of Nigerien uranium thus went from 5,000 CFAF per kilo in 1974 to 24,500 CFAF per kilo in 1979.

This new resource radically transformed the givens of Niger’s economy: GDP increased over the period in constant terms by an average of 20 percent per year. Exports grew by 28 percent a year, and tax revenues grew by 20 percent. Uranium mining produced significant knock-on effects on the rest of the economy and the added value of the modern sector increased by 25 percent a year.

By the end of this period, the country’s productive structure had changed. The agricultural sector represented no more than 40 percent of GDP, the modern sector accounted for 20 percent, and administration for 8 percent. The economy was significantly monetized and the money supply represented 12.5 percent of GDP. Grain harvests were improved and diversified, the growing of cowpeas developed and took the place of peanuts as an export crop.

An economy undergoing adjustment from 1982 to 1990. Starting in 1982, Niger undertook a structural adjustment policy intended on the one hand to contain domestic and external imbalances and on the other to control supply-side responses, and thus resume growth on expanded and strengthened foundations. This policy was to be based on cost control and enhanced resource mobilization. It also included reforms designed to strengthen the role of the private sector in the economy and restructure the parapublic sector.

However, this adjustment occurred in an unfavorable environment World demand for uranium was weakening, with Nigerien production amounting to 4,250 tons in 1982 holding steadily below 3,000 tons in the late 1980s. In addition, the resumption of demand for uranium caused a sharp decline in prices.

Increasingly, rainfall was generally poor and between 1984 and 1990 five out of seven grain harvests represented losses, with the grain deficit tending to become structural. However, the drought of 1984 was the jumping-off point that energized the off-season crops that now account for annual production of about 100,000 tons of grain equivalent.

The period saw a decline in real GDP of close to 9 percent or an annual decline of 4.6% in real GDP per capita. The regression is still greater in terms of investment, the volume of which contracted by 7.8 percent per year. Imports also fell by 5.3 percent per year and the volume of exports fell by 3.5 percent.

These developments led to new changes in the structure of the economy. In 1990, the modern commercial sector represented only 13 percent of GDP. Agriculture represented about 40 percent of GDP, the informal sector represented 33 percent, the modern commercial sector represented 13 percent, and administration represented 13 percent.

This retrospective analysis makes it clear that whenever the political leaders adopt a proactive economic policy, the results in terms of growth and the standard of living are clearly positive. This is because the national economy is still in developing stage where investments in infrastructures and major public works produce significant returns in terms of these variables.

I.1.2. Economic and financial situation from 1990 to 2010

I.1.2.1 Real sector performance

During the period 1990-2010, the Nigerien economy recorded average growth on the order of 3.8 percent in real terms, or less than 1 percent in terms of per capita GDP. This average obscures significant variations, particularly in terms of agricultural sector performance.

Table 1:

Change in GDP between 2000 and 2011

(in billions of CFAF and as a %)

Source: MF/INS/Economic Accounts of the Nation, 2011 Early Accounts, March 2012.

Table 1:

Change in GDP between 2000 and 2011

(in billions of CFAF and as a %)

	2000	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
GDP at market prices	1,277.9	1,770.0	1,906.8	1,966.8	2,155.4	2,140.0	2,316.6	3,004.4
Informal sector contribution to GDP	66.8%	67.8%	68.3%	71.9%	73.2%	69.2%	70.7%	68.9%
Real GDP growth rate at market prices	-2.6%	7.4%	5.6%	3.1%	9.6%	-0.7%	8.2%	2.1%
Real GDP growth rate at factor cost	-2.9%	7.4%	6.1%	3.1%	9.5%	-1.3%	8.5%	1.2%
Primary sector GDP	-8.3%	13.6%	10.3%	4.6%	16.2%	-9.5%	16.3%	-3.1%
Secondary sector GDP	-0.3%	0.5%	3.2%	-1.7%	3.6%	11.2%	8.5%	4.3%
Tertiary sector GDP	1.7%	3.6%	2.6%	2.9%	3.6%	5.6%	0.1%	5.7%
Informal sector GDP	4.2%	8.0%	6.5%	2.8%	11.9%	-4.8%	10.8%	-0.5%
Market sector GDP	2.7%	8.0%	6.0%	2.8%	10.7%	-1.7%	9.9%	1.0%

Source: MF/INS/Economic Accounts of the Nation, 2011 Early Accounts, March 2012.

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Table 1:

Change in GDP between 2000 and 2011

(in billions of CFAF and as a %)

	2000	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
GDP at market prices	1,277.9	1,770.0	1,906.8	1,966.8	2,155.4	2,140.0	2,316.6	3,004.4
Informal sector contribution to GDP	66.8%	67.8%	68.3%	71.9%	73.2%	69.2%	70.7%	68.9%
Real GDP growth rate at market prices	-2.6%	7.4%	5.6%	3.1%	9.6%	-0.7%	8.2%	2.1%
Real GDP growth rate at factor cost	-2.9%	7.4%	6.1%	3.1%	9.5%	-1.3%	8.5%	1.2%
Primary sector GDP	-8.3%	13.6%	10.3%	4.6%	16.2%	-9.5%	16.3%	-3.1%
Secondary sector GDP	-0.3%	0.5%	3.2%	-1.7%	3.6%	11.2%	8.5%	4.3%
Tertiary sector GDP	1.7%	3.6%	2.6%	2.9%	3.6%	5.6%	0.1%	5.7%
Informal sector GDP	4.2%	8.0%	6.5%	2.8%	11.9%	-4.8%	10.8%	-0.5%
Market sector GDP	2.7%	8.0%	6.0%	2.8%	10.7%	-1.7%	9.9%	1.0%

Source: MF/INS/Economic Accounts of the Nation, 2011 Early Accounts, March 2012.

Between 1990 and 1999, the tertiary sector represented 46.2 percent of GDP compared to 36.5 percent for the primary sector and 17.3 percent for the secondary sector. The decade between 2000 and 2010 saw a relative increase in the primary sector’s contribution to GDP of 42.2 percent, to the detriment of the tertiary sector that stood at 40 percent. The secondary sector’s contribution stabilized during the same period. The principal sources of growth were agriculture and trade. The share of value added in each broad sector remained stable. Moreover, GDP was marked by a strong preponderance of the informal sector, which contributed an average of more than 67 percent over the course of the period 1990-2010.

Apart from the informal nature of the GDP and the predominance of the primary sector, the weakness and volatility of Niger’s economic growth is due on another level to a business climate that is unfavorable to private sector development and more generally to the Nigerien economy’s lack of competitiveness. The underlying factors include: (i) a weak institutional framework; (ii) limited infrastructures; (iii) weak human capital (health, primary education, higher education, and continuing education); (iv) narrow and non-competitive goods and labor markets combined with a weak industrial sector, an undeveloped financial market, and the absence of technological innovations.

Inflation has generally been relatively well controlled in accordance with related community provisions (BCEAO monetary policy and the WAEMU convergence pact). Following fluctuations and sharp increases between 1991 and 1999, inflation receded between 2001 and 2010, with an average level of 3.3 percent.

Final demand was characterized by a strong propensity toward household consumption and a weak propensity toward savings. Final consumption during the period 1990-2010 averaged 89.7 percent of GDP. Private consumption (75.1% of GDP over the period 1990-2010) grew at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent. The result was a weak domestic savings rate that went from 7.6 percent in 1990, to 5.9 percent in 1999, and then to 10 percent in 2011.

Change in consumer prices and GDP deflator between 2000 and 2011

(as a %)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 105; 10.5089/9781484315286.002.A001

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Change in consumer prices and GDP deflator between 2000 and 2011

(as a %)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 105; 10.5089/9781484315286.002.A001

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Change in consumer prices and GDP deflator between 2000 and 2011

(as a %)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 105; 10.5089/9781484315286.002.A001

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Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) averaged 14.8 percent of GDP during the period 1990-2010. This percentage is inadequate in comparison with levels for the developing countries, on the order of 25 percent to 30 percent of GDP. This is due in part to weak domestic savings and foreign direct investment (FDI).

The import rate averaged 32.8 percent of GPO over the period of analysis. It was 23.6 percent before devaluation (between 1990 and 1993). This development reflected essential imports (food products, petroleum products, and intermediate goods) as well as increased imports of capital goods associated with the mining sector.

The export rate averages 20.2 percent of GDP. This rate, which averaged 16.5 percent between 1990 and 1993, stood at 21.1 percent after devaluation (between 1994 and 2010).

The major challenge is to promote strong and sustainable economic growth, to improve the rate of investment, particularly foreign investment, as well as the country’s external position in order to create the necessary conditions for sustainable and inclusive development, on the assumption of an increase in the domestic savings rate.

I.1.2.2. Public finances

The overall fiscal balance consistently showed a deficit for the entire 1990-2010 period. The deficit was primarily financed with external resources in the form of grants and loans but also through exceptional loans. The contribution of foreign assistance to GDP actually reached 50 percent in 2006 compared to 5.3 percent in 2011, as a result of debt relief within the framework of the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) and the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) program.

Table 2:

Indicators of Official Development Assistance

(in millions of US$ and as a %)

Source: MPATDC/DGP/Report on Development Cooperation, 2010-2011

Table 2:

Indicators of Official Development Assistance

(in millions of US$ and as a %)

Years	2000	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
(Gross) foreign aid as a % of GDP	8.6	10.9	50.0	8.6	7.5	6.3	6.0	5.3
(Net) foreign aid as a % of GDP	4.3	9.6	11.7	8.0	6.8	5.7	5.5	4.7
(Gross) foreign aid in millions of US$	147.9	370.1	1,817.0	369.5	405.0	336.3	339.2	336.9
(Net) foreign aid in millions of US$	73.1	325.1	424.2	340.9	369.9	304.1	309.7	303.2

Source: MPATDC/DGP/Report on Development Cooperation, 2010-2011

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Table 2:

Indicators of Official Development Assistance

(in millions of US$ and as a %)

Years	2000	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
(Gross) foreign aid as a % of GDP	8.6	10.9	50.0	8.6	7.5	6.3	6.0	5.3
(Net) foreign aid as a % of GDP	4.3	9.6	11.7	8.0	6.8	5.7	5.5	4.7
(Gross) foreign aid in millions of US$	147.9	370.1	1,817.0	369.5	405.0	336.3	339.2	336.9
(Net) foreign aid in millions of US$	73.1	325.1	424.2	340.9	369.9	304.1	309.7	303.2

Source: MPATDC/DGP/Report on Development Cooperation, 2010-2011

Total revenues excluding grants averaged 10.6 percent of GDP over the period 1990-2010. Despite the government’s efforts, the tax ratio, which had been increasing slowly since the early 2000s, reached 13.3 percent in 2010 but still remained below the community norm (17%). The tax ratio is low because agriculture, accounting for 30% of GDP, is not taxed; because informal activities, accounting for 70% of the economy, predominate; and because the performance of the tax authority is inadequate.

Until 2004, the structure of the Table of Government Financial Operations (TOFE) for total expenditures and net lending was characterized by the predominance of current expenses to the detriment of investment expenses. Starting in that year, thanks to economic and financial programs put into effect, current expenditures were relatively controlled.

The most recent diagnostic analysis of public financial management in Niger was conducted within the context of the Ministry of Finance’s formulation of the Public Finance Management Reform Program (2011-2014 PRGFP). This analysis uncovered the following major constraints that continue to be concerns for the PDES:

1. For revenues: (i) a narrow and volatile resource base (tax revenues averaging less than 11 percent of GDP over the period 2003-2008); (ii) limited ability to manage additional flows of mining and petroleum revenues (managing changing prices and revenues); and (iii) the delay in implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) is reflected in the need to strengthen transparency in the management of revenues.

2. In terms of expenditure: (i) sizeable gaps between actual government expenditures and appropriations approved (budget credibility problem); (ii) ineffective public spending in comparison with comparable countries in the subregion; (iii) weak linkage between national and sectoral strategic priorities and the budget; (iv) the lack of a public investment management system; and (v) inadequate consideration of macroeconomic constraints in sectoral medium term expenditure frameworks (MTEFs).

3. The public finance management system: (i) the performance of Niger’s financial management system is below the average for the WAEMU countries; (ii) excessive use of special procedures that undermine the efficacy of public spending; (iii) the lack of regular production and comprehensive and reliable reporting of budgetary accounts; (iv) weak operation of the General Treasury Directorate and the Government Accounting Office and weak cash management; and (v) inadequate internal and external control of the budget (General Directorate of Financial Control, Court of Accounts).

4. Public procurement: (i) the public procurement code is not in line with WAEMU directives; (ii) persistent conflicts of interest; and (iii) weak internal controls and no audit of public procurement.

The major challenge is to implement the 2011-2014 program of reforms in the area of public finance, particularly to improve the predictability and mobilization of tax and non-tax revenues, manage the expenditure chain better, and promote economic and financial governance.

Table 3:

Table of Financial Operations

(in billions of CFAF)

Source: MF/DRF.

Table 3:

Table of Financial Operations

(in billions of CFAF)

Years	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Total revenue and grants	455.6	584.0	474.5	515.8	627.9
Budgetary revenue	309.0	442.0	363.6	385.6	514.8
Tax revenue	233.2	281.1	343.0	361.7	485.9
Taxes on income and profits	48.7	67.7	102.3	86.9	96.5
Taxes on goods and services	73.4	79.5	99.0	109.9	162.1
Taxes on foreign trade	100.7	110.7	116.6	135.0	192.4
Other taxes	10.4	23.2	25.1	29.9	34.9
Non-tax revenues and special treasury account (CST) revenues	75.8	160.9	20.6	23.9	28.5
Grants	146.6	142.0	110.9	130.2	113.5
Current grants	27.6	35.7	5.9	47.2	56.5
Capital grants	119.0	106.3	105.0	83.0	57.0
Total expenditures and net lending	476.1	547.9	609.9	584.0	691.9
Current expenditures	199.6	264.1	276.5	346.1	461.3
Wages and salaries	72.2	83.8	93.6	103.2	141.0
Transfers and subsidies	58.3	102.1	97.2	135.5	197.3
Equipment and supplies	61.7	63.4	83.9	94.2	115.4
Other current expenditures	7.4	14.8	1.8	13.2	7.6
Capital expenditures	236.6	247.1	309.1	217.8	206.0
Exceptional expenditures	39.9	36.7	24.3	20.1	24.6
Current balance	109.4	175.9	87.1	39.5	44.3
Overall balance excluding grants	-167.1	-105.8	-246.3	-198.4	-177.5
Overall balance	-20.5	36.2	-135.4	-68.2	-64.0
Underlying budget balance	63.3	117.0	-58.4	-10.7	1.4
Change in outstanding payments	-8.4	-15.7	-13.9	-12.4	-1.9
Cash basis overall balance	-35.3	20.5	-149.3	-80.6	-65.9
Financing of cash basis overall balance	35.3	-20.5	149.3	80.6	65.9
External financing	53.0	25.7	38.2	27.2	39.6
Internal financing	-17.7	-46.2	111.1	53.4	26.3

Source: MF/DRF.

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Table 3:

Table of Financial Operations

(in billions of CFAF)

Years	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Total revenue and grants	455.6	584.0	474.5	515.8	627.9
Budgetary revenue	309.0	442.0	363.6	385.6	514.8
Tax revenue	233.2	281.1	343.0	361.7	485.9
Taxes on income and profits	48.7	67.7	102.3	86.9	96.5
Taxes on goods and services	73.4	79.5	99.0	109.9	162.1
Taxes on foreign trade	100.7	110.7	116.6	135.0	192.4
Other taxes	10.4	23.2	25.1	29.9	34.9
Non-tax revenues and special treasury account (CST) revenues	75.8	160.9	20.6	23.9	28.5
Grants	146.6	142.0	110.9	130.2	113.5
Current grants	27.6	35.7	5.9	47.2	56.5
Capital grants	119.0	106.3	105.0	83.0	57.0
Total expenditures and net lending	476.1	547.9	609.9	584.0	691.9
Current expenditures	199.6	264.1	276.5	346.1	461.3
Wages and salaries	72.2	83.8	93.6	103.2	141.0
Transfers and subsidies	58.3	102.1	97.2	135.5	197.3
Equipment and supplies	61.7	63.4	83.9	94.2	115.4
Other current expenditures	7.4	14.8	1.8	13.2	7.6
Capital expenditures	236.6	247.1	309.1	217.8	206.0
Exceptional expenditures	39.9	36.7	24.3	20.1	24.6
Current balance	109.4	175.9	87.1	39.5	44.3
Overall balance excluding grants	-167.1	-105.8	-246.3	-198.4	-177.5
Overall balance	-20.5	36.2	-135.4	-68.2	-64.0
Underlying budget balance	63.3	117.0	-58.4	-10.7	1.4
Change in outstanding payments	-8.4	-15.7	-13.9	-12.4	-1.9
Cash basis overall balance	-35.3	20.5	-149.3	-80.6	-65.9
Financing of cash basis overall balance	35.3	-20.5	149.3	80.6	65.9
External financing	53.0	25.7	38.2	27.2	39.6
Internal financing	-17.7	-46.2	111.1	53.4	26.3

Source: MF/DRF.

I.1.2.5 Balance of payments

The current account deficit has clearly worsened since 2006 due to the effect of unfavorable change in the trade deficit.

Export development since 1990 indicates a predominance of mining products (uranium and gold) and agricultural and livestock products (particularly cattle, onion, and cowpeas). Uranium, the principal export product, was nearly stagnant between 1990 and 2006, before rebounding in 2007. Imports basically consist of capital goods (35.7%) as well as food, energy, and intermediate goods.

While the increase in the value of imports following the purchase of capital goods consists of essential expenditures, the increase caused by rising prices for food products represents a significant medium- and long-term challenge that underscores the urgency of increasing agricultural production to ensure food security.

Change in the trade balance, its components, and the current account between 2000 and 2011

(in billions of CFAF)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 105; 10.5089/9781484315286.002.A001

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Change in the trade balance, its components, and the current account between 2000 and 2011

(in billions of CFAF)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 105; 10.5089/9781484315286.002.A001

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Change in the trade balance, its components, and the current account between 2000 and 2011

(in billions of CFAF)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 105; 10.5089/9781484315286.002.A001

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With regard to the capital and financial operations account, the balance showed a notable increase of 63.6 billion CFAF between 2004 and 2005, followed by 140.1 billion CFAF from 2008 to 2009. This change is basically the result of improvement in the financial operations account, all the more so since the balance in the capital account deteriorated between 2005 and 2009. This favorable development is due to the benefits of the HIPC and MDRI initiatives, the signing bonus on the petroleum production sharing contract, and a significant increase in FDI between 2001 and 2009.

The challenge is to significantly reduce the current account deficit to the level of the balance of payments. This is linked to the challenge of promoting local industries and private investments by taking advantage of the country’s comparative advantages and an improved business climate.

In conclusion, regarding the economic situation, economic and financial conditions are unfavorable, the macroeconomic situation shows weak and inadequate growth accompanied by a widening of internal and external deficits and significant dependence on assistance. The aforementioned debt relief was achieved solely thanks to the HIPC and MDRI initiatives. This situation calls for actions to monitor the macroeconomic framework, including tracking the indicators of public and external finances and debt management.

I.1.3 Diagnostic analysis of economic sectors

I.1.4 Transportation and communication infrastructure

I.2.1 Demographic change

The Nigerien population, estimated at 16 million inhabitants in 2011, continues to grow at a very rapid pace, with a rate of demographic change of 3.3 percent combined with a high total fertility index of 7.1 children per woman in 2006. The rate of demographic growth was virtually unchanged between 1990 and 2010. At that rate, the population is expected to double every 23 years. High fertility is due¹¹ in particular to cultural and religious factors that often lead to a high degree of community reticence on the subject of spacing and limiting the number of births. This is associated with a low level of education and literacy that prevents people from mastering family planning methods, the median age when women in particular marry for the first time, or polygamy.

This situation is reflected in the difficulties households face in meeting the needs of a relatively high number of infants and children to feed, tend to, and educate. It also creates strong social pressure on the limited ability of the State and communities to improve living conditions. These pressures are primarily felt when trying to manage family budgets, dealing with household autonomy expenditures like those related to health, nutrition, education, school/work tradeoffs for children, preference given to educating boys rather than girls, etc.

Moreover, the annual demographic growth rate in urban areas, estimated at 6.2 percent per year, is about twice the growth rate for the population as a whole. If the current trend continues, the urban population will represent more than 40 percent of the total population by 2030. Consequently, urgent solutions are needed to deal with the migratory pressure of rural youth moving to urban centers.

In terms of potential, Niger’s population is extremely young (more than 45% are under the age of 20). In addition, the country has strategic frameworks supported by its development partners in the area of population, promotion of women, education, and training that are capable of striking a balance between very high demographic growth and economic growth insufficient to create equilibrium between social supply and demand.

The major challenge is to control demographic growth to facilitate the balance between social supply and demand, so as to preserve resources for future generations and promote sustainable development. This challenge cannot be met without providing adequate schooling, keeping girls in school, taking measures to prevent early marriage, ensuring literacy among the population, enabling women to become economically autonomous, or raising community awareness to promote changed behavior in terms of family planning.

I.2.2 Poverty trends and profile

Based on the monetary approach the National Institute of Statistics (INS) prefers when mapping the profile of poverty using data from different surveys on household living conditions, poverty has been receding¹² very slightly, falling from 63 percent in 1990 to 62.1 percent in 2005, and to 59.5 percent in 2008. From 2005 to 2008, multidimensional poverty¹³ based on the lack of social services has not fallen significantly. This is evidenced by limited progress made in terms of access to basic social services, healthy and balanced nutrition, sources of safe drinking water, and a decent standard of living and housing.

The two most recent poverty profiles also indicated that poverty affects rural areas more than urban areas, and is more pronounced among the female population. In addition, the phenomenon takes on an endemic dimensions in the Maradi, Dosso, and Tillaberry regions. Although the depth and severity of poverty, as well as social inequities, declined slightly between 2005 and 2008, they still remained at high levels.

The female face of poverty and inequality in Niger is particularly obvious in per capita consumption, which was less than 45 percent in households headed by women in 2008. Women also have much less access to credit (17.5% of demand met compared to 27.4 percent for men in 2008) and fewer job opportunities (27.4% access although women represent 51.1 percent of the active population). Rural populations are most affected by the phenomenon of poverty due to their structure and a model of production that is essentially based on rainfed agriculture and livestock, which are highly dependent on the vagaries of the weather. Other factors associated with cultural constraints would explain the low level of per capita consumption in the Maradi region, which is structurally the poorest region.

The major challenge is to put in place effective “pro-poor” strategies to benefit the most economically vulnerable populations first (the unemployed, women, children in need, rural households) by ensuring better targeting and more social equity in the distribution of the fruits of growth and by promoting accelerated achievement of the MDGs.

I.2.3 Household living conditions

I.2.4 Levels of human development

I.3.1 Political governance

Niger’s recent political and institutional history indicates that, to a large extent, political and institutional crises are due to a shortage of governmental practices and capacities for transparently, rationally, and effectively managing public affairs. Thus, Niger has experienced two decades of learning about the exercise of democracy. Since 1990, this experience has been characterized by significant political and institutional instability punctuated by three military coups in 1996, 1999, and 2010.

In order to strengthen the foundations of democracy, the Seventh Republic has developed the entire legal and institutional arsenal of a modern state.

The institutional architecture of the republic, as provided by the Constitution of November 25, 2010, is being finalized (National Assembly; Office of the Prime Minister; Constitutional Court; Court of Accounts [Audit Office]; Court of Cassation [Supreme Court]; Council of State; Economic, Social, and Cultural Council; High Court of Justice; High Council for Communications; the Human Rights Commission, etc.). The authorities of the Seventh Republic strive to make the operations of theses institutions smooth and effective by giving them considerable resources and respecting and enforcing their independence. Along the same lines, Niger is reactivating and/or establishing permanent bodies or frameworks for cooperation on issues of national interest and on the prevention and resolution of political conflicts in order to establish a peaceful democracy. These include the Council of the Republic, the National Council for Political Dialogue (CNDP), and the National Commission for Social Dialogue (CNDS). The appointment of a Mediator of the Republic and institutionalization of the Status of the Opposition and its leader reflect the same objectives.

The central problem of political governance has been the dysfunction of democratic institutions due to the operational deficiencies of government institutions and the limited capacities of non-state actors. The operational deficiencies of government institutions are linked to: (i) the failure to respect the principle of the separation of powers; (ii) public authorities’ failure to respect citizens’ constitutional rights and freedoms; (iii) poor relations between institutions; (iv) a lack of planning; and (v) limited cooperation in the actions of government.

Regarding the limited capacities of non-state actors, this was due to: (i) a lack of communication; (ii) poor understanding of institutional mechanisms; (iii) a lack of ethics and professional conduct; and (iv) political interference in the trade union movement and in civil society.

Assets in terms of political governance include: (i) regular operation of the CNDP since 2004 (consultative body for the prevention, management, and resolution of political disputes); (ii) the existence of a legal-institutional arsenal established by the Constitution of November 25, 2010; and (iii) the recommendations of the Niamey Declaration of September 15, 2011 on relations between civil society, the State, and the technical and financial partners.

With regard to the political upheavals of recent decades, the principal challenge to be met is to strengthen good practices, including the permanence of the electoral cycle and strengthened institutions to stabilize the political climate, a prerequisite for the country’s economic, social, and security environment.

I.3.2 Administrative governance

Since the 1990s, Nigerien public administration has been characterized by weak human resource management, a shortage of qualified and experienced personnel, a mismatch between where personnel are located and public service needs, and limited communication between units that should work together. Other factors include: (i) employees’ lack of motivation due to the politicization of civil service; (ii) excessive turnover of personnel as political winds change (detrimental to the ability to capitalize on experience); (iii) a compensation and promotion policy inconducive to productivity because of its limited association with merit and performance; (iv) the aging of personnel; and (v) insufficient or non-existent operational resources and maintenance.

Moreover, government assets, particularly administrative buildings, are generally antiquated and dilapidated. Despite the government’s efforts to construct administrative buildings between 1993 and 2007, it is still leasing private sector buildings to meet its administrative needs.

The principal constraint in this area is the poor performance of governmental services due to inadequate administrative management tools and instruments, dysfunctional administrative offices, and inadequate quantity and quality of human resources in civil service, as well as the absence of career paths.

As a significant area of potential, it should be noted that with a view to ensuring consistency and coordination in development programs, the government, through the High Commission for Modernization of the State, drew up the National Policy on Modernization of the State (PNME), which seeks to focus government administrative reforms on increasing the quality and accessibility of the services the government provides to its citizens.

Current staffing in civil service can be seen below:

Table 4:

Civil service staffing levels from 2005 to 2010:

Source: MEF/DGEPD, 2011, Diagnostic Report on General Capacity-Building Program

Table 4:

Civil service staffing levels from 2005 to 2010:

Year	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Civil servants	28,181	26,424	27,516	28,044	28,186	34,017
Population	12,627,242	13,044,972	13,716,233	14,197,601	14,693,112	15,203,822
Number of inhabitants per civil servant	448	494	498	506	521	447

Source: MEF/DGEPD, 2011, Diagnostic Report on General Capacity-Building Program

View Table

Table 4:

Civil service staffing levels from 2005 to 2010:

Year	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Civil servants	28,181	26,424	27,516	28,044	28,186	34,017
Population	12,627,242	13,044,972	13,716,233	14,197,601	14,693,112	15,203,822
Number of inhabitants per civil servant	448	494	498	506	521	447

Source: MEF/DGEPD, 2011, Diagnostic Report on General Capacity-Building Program

The major challenge in administrative governance is thus to successfully manage the indispensable transition/change from static to dynamic development administration with effective oversight mechanisms. This will mean accelerating the reform of government and strengthening its capacities, particularly human capacities, in order to give government administration the skills essential to increasing quality in the public services provided to citizens and to the conduct of development projects and programs. However, this can only be done by promoting a results-based culture at the individual and collective level at all points in the administrative chain.

I.3.3 Local governance

The local governance situation is addressed here in terms of the management of local governments.

Local governance is based on the principle of decentralization, which is a public services management method born of the conviction that decentralized management is more effective and less expensive than centralized management. In addition, Article 164 of the Constitution established decentralization as a principle of administrative governance, stipulating that “territorial administration is based on the principles of decentralization and deconcentration.” In this regard, the contribution of decentralization in the area of development management lies in the involvement of authorities and non-state actors (local authorities, local elected officials, NGOs, associations, etc.) that formerly played a minor role.

In addition, in order the create the conditions for better sharing and more organized implementation of administrative reform, to help democracy take root, and make grass-roots communities accountable in the management of their development, the National Decentralization Policy (PND) of March 2012 replaces the sovereign powers of the State and its role as the principal organization and overseer of decentralization. Thus, this policy makes local governments (regions, communes) the agents of local control over the implementation of public policies, grassroots democracy, good governance, and sustainable local development within the framework of the unitary rule of law that, based on effective decentralized administration, ensures the order development of the country based on national solidarity, regional potential, and intra- and inter-regional balance (linkage and consistency of different sectoral interventions). In this respect, decentralization represents an opportunity to learn about the exercise of local governance by ensuring that the community in particular and the local government in general can conduct their own affairs. Decentralization fosters the principle of local authorities’ accountability to citizens and for this reason helps to spread the culture of grassroots democracy and is a dynamic process.

In terms of constraints, the first factor to be noted is that local governments—among which municipalities or “communes” represent one of the principal instruments for the implementation of local governance, enjoy autonomy of management, and have deliberative bodies made up of local elected officials—have only existed in Niger since 2004. Thus, they are recent and the bodies established and those active in them are taking their first steps. Like any learning experience, learning how to engage in local governance is a laborious task and skills in this area are acquired only through exercise and actual practice.

Moreover, action in many of towns is constrained by inadequate resources, particularly due to the failure to implement the National Agency for the Financing of Local Government (ANFICT) and the towns’ limited ability to mobilize internal resources. In effect, in order for the decentralization policy to be effective, the transfer of responsibilities (jurisdiction) must be accompanied by the resources necessary (particularly financial resources and technical assistance) to allow the decentralized entity to take up its responsibilities. In addition, considering the importance of the challenge presented by the issue of decentralization in terms of the viability of towns, the central government must commit to support the efforts of these local governments through appropriate financial assistance and technical training in keeping with the actions needed.

The principal constraint is the limited ability of local governments to ensure sustainable local development due to: (i) their limited experience with contracting; (ii) the failure to effectively take the geographic dimension into account, in the absence of an operational national land management policy; (iii) the lack of tools to support the financing of local governments; and (iv) limited monitoring of the government’s technical services.

Areas of potential that could help to promote local governance basically involve: creation of the National Agency for Financing the Investments of Local Governments; civil society involved in decentralization and local development; a national decentralization policy, the Association of Municipalities of Niger; the Association of Regions of Niger; and the availability of TFPs to monitor the decentralization and local development process.

Thus, the challenge here is to consistently support the efforts of decentralized entities by providing the financial and technical assistance essential for implementing the decentralization policy.

I.3.4 Economic governance

After more than a decade of the structural adjustment process, a diagnosis was performed in the early 2000s regarding government finance management and above all the impact of public spending on the population’s well-being. This diagnosis indicated that the government’s budget was highly dependent on foreign assistance (more than 55%), limited room to maneuver on the level and composition of public expenditures, difficulties establishing links between national strategies and the budget, complex and highly centralized budgetary execution procedures, and excessive use of exceptional procedures.

The issue of economic governance, which has been given priority since adoption of the first Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper in 2002, is vigorously affirmed, particularly through public finance reforms to increase the effectiveness of budget execution and make financial management more transparent and more accountable.

In the area of strengthening public finance management in Niger, the government undertook a PEMFAR³⁴ process that resulted in the adoption in 2009 of a priority actions plan under which notable achievements have been made. In 2011, a Public Finance Management Reform Program was developed with a view to strengthening budgetary credibility, the predictability of resources, increased transparency and accountability in the management of public finances, as well as the quality of public spending.

In recent years, efforts have focused in particular on strengthening the oversight system, combating corruption, and the public procurement system. Nonetheless, the management of public expenditure in Niger is still characterized by weak and variable collection of domestic revenues. In effect, the mobilization of revenues continues to be very low (tax burden of 13.3% in 2010, below the community norm of 17%) and unpredictable. Moreover, there is a gap between expected revenues and actual revenues, with a negative impact on proper expenditure management.

In the area of development planning, from the time of its independence until 2000, Niger has opted for indicative planning, combining long-, medium, and short-term planning, through various planning exercises and methods that have thus marked Nigerien development management experience.

The weakening of the development planning and coordination function between 2000 and 2010 resulted in: (i) a dilution of responsibilities for the design and preparation of development policies; (ii) limited consistency in sectoral policies; (iii) problems faced by public authorities in formulating endogenous development policies and strategies: and (iv) limited utilization of tools for planning and monitoring public policies and deterioration of the related framework. In effect, the monitoring and evaluation mechanisms of the ADPRS have not been able to ensure effective coordination of development strategies.

The analysis of economic governance reveals significant achievements in the area of steering the economy, reforms of public finances, forecasting, and development management, and the monitoring and evaluation of public policies (results-based management). Recently, efforts have been made to strengthen the capacities of public administration, particularly in the formulation of public policy, the identification of needs, and the formulation of programs and projects.

The principal constraint is the limited relationship between the various development management benchmarks due to the limited credibility of the budget and the failure to anticipate development. The limited credibility of the budget is based on limited ability to predict expenditures, limited capacities of oversight bodies, the failure to consolidate a culture of accountability, the weakness of citizen oversight, weak collection of domestic revenues, limited capacity of sectoral ministries in the area of budgetary and financial management procedures, budgetary regulations, and the complexity of budgetary procedures. The failure to anticipate development is associated with a persistent resistance to change, the limited consistency of development management instruments, insufficient coordination of development, and obsolescent planning tools.

The main areas of potential can be found in the various international and regional instruments based on agreements with international organizations (WAEMU, ECOWAS, GIABA, the IMF, and the World Bank), the Public Finance Management Reform Program, and the new agreement with the IMF allowing the Republic of Niger to take on new loans. In the area of economic governance, there is also the validation of the national charter on good governance with respect to the management of mining resources, Niger’s accession to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). These instruments are designed to allow better management of the mining and petroleum resources anticipated by the country. In addition, compliance with sub-regional directives, particularly for development of the programmatic approach in the sectors and the transition from means budgets to program budgets, will make it possible to link the planning of appropriations and the strategic development priorities expressed in the national plan and in sectoral policies.

The principal challenge is to significantly improve the efficiency of development management instruments (mineral resources management and transparency instrument, MTEF, PDES, SDDCI, fiscal reform program, budgetary strategy, budget laws, etc.) based on a forward-looking approach.

The issue of significant computerization of the national economy is also an important challenge to be met in order to increase the growth and mobilization of domestic resources.

I.3.5 Legal and judicial governance

The situation in the justice sector shows that various reforms have been undertaken in recent years to improve its performance. These reforms have made it possible to achieve satisfactory results in many areas, but they continue to be limited in scope. However, the budget for the Ministry of Justice increased to more than one percent of budgetary resources in 2012.

Reform of the legal framework was marked by significant legislative and regulatory efforts, particularly with the revision of the basic texts on which magistrates rely to administer justice. Thus, the Penal Code and the Criminal Procedure Code were extensively amended to improve the operation of the criminal process and allow the criminalization of certain practices or behaviors and thus render justice that is more effective and more respectful of human rights. There is also the 2004 law on judicial organization and laws governing the professions of attorneys, notaries, and bailiffs.

The National Assembly has just adopted organic laws on the composition, organization, powers, and operations of the Court of Accounts, the Constitutional Court, and the National Commission on Human Rights, as well as a law on the creation of the National Legal and Judicial Assistance Agency (ANAJJ).

In addition, a new statute on judges was adopted to improve their working conditions. The incorporation, in modern law, of certain legal provisions based on international commitments has also helped to make Nigerien law consistent with international instruments.

Codes and reference documents were disseminated and publicized to accompany these basic texts.

One of the principal reforms of the judicial framework undertaken to respond to the challenges posed by the Program to Support Judicial Reforms was the creation within the National School of Administration and Magistracy of a section responsible for providing initial training for magistrates.

In addition, the organization of various types of training for judges and clerks has strengthened the capacities of the incumbents to respond to the new challenges. Reform of the judicial map with the creation of new jurisdictions and the strengthening of oversight bodies (Superior Council of the Magistracy, General Inspectorate of Judicial Services) have supported the process of improving the judicial system.

With a view to improving the conditions for gaining access to justice, particularly judicial defense, tax incentives have been established by the new law organizing the profession of attorneys in order to encourage them to set up in the provincial areas of the country.

The bar association took specific actions regarding the defense of accused persons belonging to vulnerable population segments (defense teams). In addition, information and awareness-raising activities for litigants are conducted in partnership with civil society organizations. The installation of judicial facilitators in prison facilities who are responsible for informing prisoners of their rights as well as the reception and information offices in the high courts to inform those using the courts have helped to improve access to justice.

In criminal law, the adoption of suspended sentences combined with probation has set up alternatives to incarceration. Implementation of the Juvenile Judicial Protection Program and experimentation with community service work for minors have ensured that the specific nature of juvenile justice is taken into account.

With respect to the judicial police, training on human rights for police, gendarmes, and intervention and securities force agents should help to strengthen the protection of human rights.

In the corrections sector, prison conditions have improved thanks to the combined effect of increases in the sector’s budget, the creation of new prison facilities, and the rehabilitation of many others. The construction of sections for juveniles in some prison facilities, the development of sociocultural activities and reintegration of prisoners, and initial vocational training for agents through the development of a prison staff training program should also be noted.

The principal constraint in the area of legal and judicial governance is systemic dysfunction. This is due to corruption and influence peddling, impunity, judicial delays, difficulties accessing justice, dysfunction in the enforcement of court decisions, and poor prison conditions.

Difficulties encountered when seeking access to justice are associated with the distance between the courts and potential litigants, weak judicial communications, inadequate supply and demand of justice, and the failure to monitor the most vulnerable. The dysfunction in the enforcement of judicial decisions is due to all types of interference. Poor prison conditions and insufficient preparation for civilian life are due to the overcrowding of prison facilities and inadequate mechanisms for preparing prisoners to reenter society.

In any case, the principal challenge is to significantly improve access to justice and to improve its image. To help achieve this major objective, the government decided to convene national consultations on justice to assess the situation and define solutions for the qualitative and consistent development of the justice system in Niger as both an institution and a public service.

I.3.6 Defense and security

Defending the integrity and preserving the security of individuals and property are prerequisites for economic and social development. These functions are essentially the responsibility of the Defense and Security Forces (FDS).

In the past, the country has experienced three (3) armed rebellions and recurring inter-community disputes between nomadic and settled groups. Today, these types of disputes have fallen off, thanks in particular to the government’s efforts, to dispute resolution mechanisms, and to the commitment and determination of the FDS.

However, the country now faces other types of threats: international terrorism, drug and weapons trafficking, and religious fundamentalism.

Even though Niger is at the center of areas of tension, the FDS effectively guarantee the country’s territorial integrity, ensure the safety of persons and property, and fully carry out their mission.

In addition, the FDS are called upon perform civilian-military activities in the areas of health, military engineering, air and land transport, and environmental protection.

The principal constraint in the area of defense and security is the porous nature of the country’s borders, associated with the immensity of the territory and inadequate human, material, and technological means to cover the entire territory.

With the creation of the High Defense Council, the National Security Council, the High Authority for Consolidation of the Peace, the National Commission on the Collection and Control of Illegal Weapons, the National Commission on Borders, and international organizations combating drugs and money laundering, Niger has adequate instruments for combatting insecurity. Note should also be made of the recent development of the National Defense and Security Strategy in Sahel-Sahara Areas, adopted by the government in October 2011. The implementation of this strategy reflects the desire of the government and its partners to reconcile peace-related issues with issues of development in towns in the northern part of the country.

In addition, the planning laws adopted by the government for the National Guard, the National Police, and the Nigerien Armed Forces represent relevant instruments for modernizing and introducing quality governance within the FDS. This is reflected in the field in better application of military regulations, increased cohesion, discipline, justice, equity, and morale in the FDS and improvement in their living and working conditions.

The central challenge, in this area, is to guarantee defense of the territory and the security of persons and property.

I.4.1 Regional integration

Niger has an enviable geostrategic position due to its geographic location in the middle of the continent midway between the Atlantic and Indian oceans and linking North Africa and the Gulf of Guinea. It also has abundant potential in the agriculture and livestock, mining, industrial, craft, and tourism sectors. In effect, besides significant uranium reserves, the agriculture and livestock sector includes several promising subsectors (livestock-meat, cowpeas, onion, sesame, peanuts, gum Arabic, etc.). In addition, Niger is now an oil producing country.

However, the country’s landlocked position is a serious hindrance to its economic expansion. Aware of this vulnerable situation, immediately upon gaining its independence Niger opted for cooperation and integration with all who share its values.

The need to develop agriculture and livestock production and the country’s natural wealth within a subregional, regional, and international context and to pursue domestic and cross-border security supports the validity of the country’s choice to make regional cooperation and integration a fundamental option for its development. In effect, the problems that countries face, particularly those in Africa, are of such a scope and complexity that an overall approach of dealing with them within a subregional and regional context is not only a guarantee of effective promotion of development but also a vehicle for strengthening solidarity between countries and peoples.

This determination to make integration a pillar of development was reaffirmed by the President of the Republic in his inaugural address of April 7, 2011 and by the Prime Minister in his General Policy Statement. The note on Strategic Guidelines for Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth, adopted by the government on August 31, 2011, reiterates that the Economic and Social Development Plan (PDES) will take into account the agreements and conventions signed by Niger in the context of regional economic integration.

Niger’s commitment to the path of integration is reflected in its membership in several hundred inter-governmental organizations including the United Nations system, the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), etc.

However, despite its expressed willingness and efforts made in the area of promoting economic integration, Niger still does not have a national policy in this area. A draft policy was admittedly drawn up in 2004 but has not been adopted.

In institutional terms, various ministerial departments are responsible for issues of regional economic integration, given their cross-cutting nature.

With regard to the major concerns in the area of regional economic integration, emphasis is often placed on the following points: respect for commitments signed by the country, increased presence of Niger within subregional and regional organizations based on an appropriate policy of representation at the highest level within the decision-making and management bodies of these organizations, active participation by private stakeholders in the integration process, development of the advantages of proximity to neighboring countries, strengthened partnership with the countries of the hinterland, increased competitiveness of the economy, promotion and implementation of integrative projects combining the efforts and interests of several African states, particularly in the areas of energy, transportation and communication infrastructure, agriculture, natural resources, industry and mines, the free movement of persons, goods and capital, as well as the right of establishment and residence, promotion of the country’s brand image within intergovernmental organizations and internationally.

The central challenge in this area is to promote subregional and regional integration while offering benefits to the country and allowing it to assert its political and economic influence.

I.4.2 Regional development

Regional socioeconomic development in Niger is similar to that of the country as a whole. Niger’s regions are actually still highly dependent on governmental action and have not themselves been able to generate dynamic local economic structures that could do without the benefit of government investment, the geographic distribution of which has not taken regional realities into account.

The regions’ involvement in the preparation and execution of development plans was marginal during the first three decades following independence (1960-1990). This is due in large part to the incomplete decentralization process that, by inhibiting the emergence of strong and autonomous regional power, prevented the regions from taking their place in the dynamic of development. The decentralization of the government’s technical services as a form of intervention was not sufficient to take regional views into account in the choice of development guidelines and policies.

The administrative reform of 1964-1965 created local governments (with budgets and councils) but they were not sufficiently consulted in the process of developing plans.

The 1970s were marked by the desire to plan a regionalized development approach through regional “integrated” or productivity projects as well as large-scale irrigation projects. Preceded by environmental studies, these projects sought to cover all areas affecting rural development.

In the context of preparing the 1976-1978 Three-Year Program, discussions were organized between the central and departmental levels. However, it was primarily during preparation of the 1979-1983 Plan that real regional planning work was initiated with the preparation of regional assessments.

Preparation of the 1987-1991 Plan led to a real contribution from the regions when regional planning and land management work was resumed with the proposed strategy of developing Master Plans for Regional Development and a National Land Management Plan. Recent developments in the area of decentralization have put regional involvement in the planning process back on the agenda. In effect, the strengthened role of the regions will necessarily involve regional-level and effective planning instruments adapted to local resources, leaving considerable room for input from the population. These instruments should respond to the need to define long-term regional guidelines based on locally identified potential and limitations and the preparation of regional planning and development strategies within the general framework of a national land management policy.

This policy organizes land use development based on rational valuation and exploitation of the land and its resources, in a spirit of strengthening national unity and solidarity. It must also ensure the preservation and improvement of national factors of production and the population’s living standards. It ensures the definition of sectoral and geographical guidelines capable of creating synergy among different regions and sectors of activity.

In this respect, the land management policy to be developed following the prospective study, in early 2013, should help to improve the management of development policies through national and regional land management plans.

The major challenge is the search for harmonious sustainable and geographically balanced land use development through (i) the mitigation of inter- and intra-regional disparities; (ii) efforts to combat poverty; and (iii) preservation and utilization of natural resources.

I.4.3 Environment

The various components of the environment (land, forestry resources, biological diversity, water resources, air, and urban environment) are subject to ongoing deterioration due to the action of climate and human activity.

Land resources are subject to a widespread process of deterioration in various forms due to the action of climate factors (wind and water erosion) and human activity (over-exploitation, unsuitable exploitation practices). The impact of the degradation of land is reflected in reduced forested areas, the disappearance of fauna, reduced water infiltration, the loss of arable area, exacerbated land disputes, the unlinking of traditional livestock systems, reduced production potential, deteriorating socioeconomic infrastructures, and serious public health problems (epidemics, malnutrition).

With respect to forest production, there is a chronic shortage in the balance between supply and demand for wood. This explains the increasing percentage of green wood and smaller diameters on the market and the increasingly frequent use of other traditional fuels, particularly agricultural residues and cow manure. In terms of cattle feed, forest by-products (fruits and leaves) account for 25 percent of ruminant feed rations.

Biological diversity, an essential component of the sociocultural assets of national communities, has been subject to significant changes in recent years, particularly the disappearance of some plant and animal species due to successive droughts and human activity, particularly those associated with agricultural, forestry, and livestock activities. Actually or potentially valuable genetic resources, i.e., genetic material from plant, animal, and microbial sources, are being eroded in both natural plant formations and cultivated species.

Water resources represent hydraulic potential that is poorly mobilized. The principal forms of degradation noted are reflected in reduced water surfaces, reduced river flows, increased pollution of various types, and the proliferation of invasive plants.

Management of the urban environment is a complex issue due to the rapid increase in the urban population, inadequate planning, and municipalities’ limited resources. These problems take the form of pollution and nuisances related to the population’s living conditions as illustrated by promiscuity in downtown areas, inadequate access to household waste collection and disposal services, limited wastewater collection and treatment systems, the failure to control rainwater, and inadequate systems for collecting and treating industrial and biomedical waste, etc.

In terms of health, the environment is generally conducive to the spread of disease, particularly diseases related to water and an unhealthy environment.

I.4.4 Climate change

Niger’s weather pattern is characterized by limited rainfall that varies geographically and seasonally and by high temperatures that exacerbate the country’s aridity. An examination of climate variations over the course of the period 1950-2000 points to a significant reduction in annual rainfall as well as a net increase in minimum temperatures. As for projections, the average annual increase in maximum temperatures over the period 2020-2049 will reach 2.3 to 2.6 degrees centigrade based on different scenarios.

However, rainfall forecasts indicate a slight increase in cumulative rainfall over the period 2020-2049 for most weather stations but with rainy seasons starting later. This will not be without consequences for rainfall-dependent agriculture and for food security in general. Nonetheless, it should be noted that the trends indicated for the West African zones in simplified models suggest the following rainfall changes: greater variability of rainfall from 0.5 percent to 40 percent in the subregion, with an average of 10 percent to 20 percent by 2015, a continued downward slide in isohyets [map line connecting points receiving equal rainfall] toward the south, and increased frequency of episodes of heavy rains and droughts.

The future effects of climate change on surface water are as follows: (i) reduced flows in the Niger river; (ii) increased flows in small watersheds and tributaries on the right bank of the river; (iii) continued displacement of the hydrological regime of the river and its major tributaries on the right bank; with Guinean peak flows at Niamey that will be delayed from February/March to December/January, or even November/December in the case of the most unfavorable scenarios; (iv) increased volume and frequency of flooding, particularly in the south; and (v) increased evaporation with the increase in temperature, which could reduce water volumes at dams and reservoirs.

The probable impact on groundwater is reduced replenishment and, consequently, lower piezometric levels, particularly in the water tables and alluvial water due to reduced rainfall and flows. This vulnerability will be accentuated by pressure from humans drawing on the water.

With respect to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Niger now ranks among the least polluting countries. The inventories taken over the period 1990-1997 indicated that total emissions of GHG (in CO₂ equivalent) recorded in 1990 amounted to 8,912.06 Gg (gigagrams).³⁵ The net balance of GHG emissions and sequestration in 1990 was minus 359,101 Gg. In 2009, the national net balance of GHG emissions/sequestration was minus 33,922 Gg CO2-eq. Niger is no longer a “source” bur a “net sink” in the area of greenhouse gas emissions.³⁶

Although Niger is not compelled by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to submit measures for mitigating GHG emissions, it is still required to participate in the global effort to stabilize emissions, particularly by strengthening the country’s ability to reduce its emissions. This ability depends on the implementation of sustainable sectoral development policies.

Niger belongs to a region that is one of those most vulnerable to climate change, as the Sahel is recognized as having become drier over the course of the 20^th century. Thus, the country is already living with the consequences of global warming and, consequently, is particularly vulnerable to its adverse effects.

In terms of agriculture, forestry, and livestock, the foreseeable impact of climate change, particularly in the event of reduced rainfall, will be reflected in soil degradation, a significant loss of biodiversity, reduced production, continuing large-scale population movements, and a resurgence of disputes between farmers and herders. In addition, the dynamic of forest area degradation will become worse.

In health terms, the impacts of climate change basically involve malaria, meningitis, and measles. Increased temperatures during the cold season (December to February) could lead to rather high malaria transmission rates. This could in effect create temperature conditions more favorable to the parasite’s cycle and to the survival of the vector. In terms of meningitis, due to foreseeable increases in rain over the period 2020-2049 for the months of July, August, and September and a cumulative annual increase, on the one hand, and increased temperatures and a longer dry period, on the other, the meningitis attack rate could increase somewhat throughout Niger except in the Tillabery area where the rainy season could extend over a long period and the dry season could be shorter, leading to a likely reduction in the meningitis attack rate. With regard to measles, an increase in temperature and above all a considerable increase in rainfall (as in the Tillabery, Zinder, and Agadez area) would be reflected in an extended rainy season and a reduction in the period during which measles is highly active. In contrast, for the Maradi area, reduced rainfall would lead to an extension of the period conducive to the development of measles.

Thus, adapting to climate change is today an urgent requirement and the most sustainable solution to the effects of climate change is to incorporate adaptation measures in economic and social development policies so as to reduce the population’s vulnerability to the negative impacts of climate change and strengthen its ability to resist and tolerate extreme climate phenomena. Priority interventions in this area involve the transfer of technologies to both mitigate and adapt to climate change, increased capacities in the area of research, and systematic observations and actions in the area of information, awareness-building, education, and training.

2.1.1 The vision:

The vision of the PDES is based on building an emerging country, constructed on the basis of a dynamic, diversified, sustainable, and harmonious economy throughout the country, a modern, democratic, native and well-governed republic, a nation rich in culture and shared values, a society open to the world and drawn to knowledge and technological innovation, prosperous, equitable, solidarity-based, unified, and in peace, and committed to promoting African integration.

2.1.2 Objective:

The Economic and Social Development Plan seeks to promote the population’s economic, social, and cultural well-being.

2.1.3 Expected strategic results

Analysis of consistency among the strategic pillars of the PDES

Based on the constraints and challenges identified in the context of work done on the sectoral diagnostic assessments, the five pillars proposed reflect, on the whole, the principal dimensions of human development (social, economic, environmental, and governance-related). They are intertwined to address the challenges of multi-sectoral sustainable development.

The first strategic pillar seeks to promote improvement of the credibility and effectiveness of public institutions. This pillar, which is cross-cutting in scope, contributes to the achievement of strategic results under the other four strategic pillars of the PDES. For this pillar, the PDES targets the following specific objectives: (i) improved management of public finances; (ii) strengthened steering of the economy; (iii) consolidated democratic and civilian institutions; (iv) promotion of justice and human rights; (v) local governance and decentralization; and (vi) effective and modernized government administration.

The second strategic pillar focuses on establishing the conditions for sustainability of balanced and inclusive development. This pillar, which is also cross-cutting in scope, is a precondition to achievement of strategic results under the other four strategic pillars of the PDES. In effect, the targeted objectives relate to the fact that no sustainable, balanced, and inclusive development is possible without developing strategies in the areas of human security, territorial defense, respect and promotion for human rights, consolidation of national unity, prevention and management of humanitarian crises, and adaptation between social demand and supply to take the constraint of limited resources into account. The following objectives are pursued: (i) guaranteed citizen security and national unity; (ii) better control of demographic growth; (iii) control of the sustainable management of the environment and the effects of climate change; and (iv) balanced regional development.

The third strategic pillar focuses on promoting of food security and sustainable agricultural development. Considering the relative importance of the rural sector in the economic system, revival of that sector is such that it contributes to the achievement of job-creating economic growth. Moreover, specific consideration given to the population’s resilience³⁷ contributes to the sustainability and inclusive nature of development as well as the promotion of social development (pillars 1 and 5). The strategic results correspond to the intervention pillars of the 3N Initiative. This means: (i) growth and diversification of agricultural, forestry, livestock and fisheries production; (ii) regular provisioning of rural and urban markets with agricultural, forestry, livestock and fisheries products; (iii) improved resilience of vulnerable groups to climate change, food crises, and natural disasters; (iv) improved nutritional status of Nigeriens; and (v) organization and coordination of the 3N Initiative.

The fourth strategic pillar seeks to promote a competitive and diversified economy for accelerated and inclusive growth. The aim is to increase national wealth and citizens’ buying power, to develop growth potential to create gainful employment, particularly for young people, in the sectors that drive economic growth such as agroindustry, the environment, the mining sector, particularly through their potential knock-on effects on other areas such as services, while promoting entrepreneurship among young people. The inclusive nature of growth will allow all to participate in the creation of added value and to share in the fruits of growth in a fair and equitable way. The strategic results focus on; (i) promotion of the business climate, particularly to create conditions for promoting investments and developing services, factors in the sustainability of development; (ii) development of transportation and communication infrastructures; (iii) development of productive sectors (other than the agricultural, forestry, livestock sector) such as industry, BPW, or mines; and (iv) the economic integration of young people.

The fifth economic pillar focuses on the promotion of social development. It has been broken down into 12 strategic results as follows: (i) promoting health through efficient implementation of the PDS; (ii) development of the educational system at all levels of instruction, including technical and vocational education; (iii) implementation of the social protection policy adopted by the government in 2011; (iv) pursuit of efforts to combat inequalities and strengthen gender equity; (v) promotion of a healthy standard of living; (vi) improved access to safe drinking water and sanitation; (vii) development of the practice of sports for individual health and professionalization of the sector; (viii) development of arts and cultural assets; (ix) promotion of tourism activities; (x) development of young people through implementation of the priority actions of the youth sector development strategy; (xi) intensification of efforts to eradicate STIs/HIV/AIDS; and (xii) protecting children against violence, exploitation, and abuse by implementing the framework document and its action plan. This demonstrates the cross-cutting nature of this strategic pillar and its links to strategic pillars 2, 3, and 4 of the PDES.

Table 6:

Strategic Pillars and Results of the PDES

Table 6:

Strategic Pillars and Results of the PDES

Strategic Results (results deriving from the Renaissance Program and the diagnostic assessment)	Strategic Pillars	Content
1. Democratic and civilian institutions are credible 2. Management of development is facilitated 3. Citizens are guaranteed equitable and equal access to public services	1. Improvement of the credibility and effectiveness of public institutions	Public finances management Steering of the economy Consolidation of constitutional institutions Justice and human rights Local governance Effectiveness of public administration
1. Environmental resources are sustainably preserved and managed 2. Inter- and intra-regional inequalities are mitigated 3. Citizens’ aspirations to security are satisfied 4. The levers of demographic growth are controlled	2. Conditions for sustainability of balanced and inclusive development	Security and defense, national unity, and consolidation of the peace Demography Environment and climate change, prevention and management of crises and disasters Regional development
1. Nigeriens sustainably ensure their food and nutritional security	3. Food security and sustainable agricultural development	Growth and diversification of agricultural, forestry, livestock, and fisheries production Regular provisioning of rural and urban markets with agricultural, forestry, livestock and fisheries products Improved resilience of groups vulnerable to climate change, food crises, and natural disasters
		Improved nutritional status of Nigeriens Organization and coordination of the 3N Initiative
1. Economic growth is strong and continued, sustainable and inclusive 2. Young people are integrated in economic life	4. Competitive and diversified economy for accelerated and inclusive growth	Business climate Economic and institutional infrastructures Productive sectors other than agriculture Economic integration of young people
1. The level of social development is significantly improved	5. Promotion of social development	Health and nutrition Combating STIs/HIV/AIDS Education, instruction, technical and vocational training Social protection Inequality and gender equity Living standard Water and sanitation Sports, culture Social activities of young people

View Table

Table 6:

Strategic Pillars and Results of the PDES

Strategic Results (results deriving from the Renaissance Program and the diagnostic assessment)	Strategic Pillars	Content
1. Democratic and civilian institutions are credible 2. Management of development is facilitated 3. Citizens are guaranteed equitable and equal access to public services	1. Improvement of the credibility and effectiveness of public institutions	Public finances management Steering of the economy Consolidation of constitutional institutions Justice and human rights Local governance Effectiveness of public administration
1. Environmental resources are sustainably preserved and managed 2. Inter- and intra-regional inequalities are mitigated 3. Citizens’ aspirations to security are satisfied 4. The levers of demographic growth are controlled	2. Conditions for sustainability of balanced and inclusive development	Security and defense, national unity, and consolidation of the peace Demography Environment and climate change, prevention and management of crises and disasters Regional development
1. Nigeriens sustainably ensure their food and nutritional security	3. Food security and sustainable agricultural development	Growth and diversification of agricultural, forestry, livestock, and fisheries production Regular provisioning of rural and urban markets with agricultural, forestry, livestock and fisheries products Improved resilience of groups vulnerable to climate change, food crises, and natural disasters
		Improved nutritional status of Nigeriens Organization and coordination of the 3N Initiative
1. Economic growth is strong and continued, sustainable and inclusive 2. Young people are integrated in economic life	4. Competitive and diversified economy for accelerated and inclusive growth	Business climate Economic and institutional infrastructures Productive sectors other than agriculture Economic integration of young people
1. The level of social development is significantly improved	5. Promotion of social development	Health and nutrition Combating STIs/HIV/AIDS Education, instruction, technical and vocational training Social protection Inequality and gender equity Living standard Water and sanitation Sports, culture Social activities of young people

2.2.1 Pillar 1: Improving the credibility and effectiveness of public institutions

Accelerated growth and sustainable development can only be achieved if institutions are established that guarantee political stability and respect for property rights and contracts so that individuals are encouraged to invest and participate in economic life. The implementation of various democratic reforms and adoption of the Constitution of the Seventh Republic have allowed Niger to lay the foundations for democratic renewal, help calm the political situation, and consolidate the stability of the Republic’s institutions.

The implementation of development policies (macroeconomic and sectoral) is based on a certain number of guiding principles, particularly a democratic foundation, a participatory approach, decentralization, transparency in management through accountability, and the duty to report.

These guiding principles are based on the mechanisms, relations, and institutions by means of which citizens and social groups express their interests, exercise their rights, and shoulder their obligations and to which they go to settle their disputes. This pillar covers the components of good political, legal, economic, administrative, and local government in particular, the consolidation of constitutional institutions, justice and human rights, rational and transparent management of public finances, the steering of the economy, the effectiveness of public administration, and the management of communities.

The credibility of the Republic’s institutions will be ensured by: (i) normal operation of the bodies established by the Constitution; (ii) respect for the rule of law and democratic rules of play and a mechanism for improved operation of state institutions; and (iii) better dialogue and collaboration with civil society actors.

Economic governance seeks to reestablish efficient public financial management and public policy planning and coordination instruments through which it will be possible to reconcile the implementation of development objectives and the improvement of domestic resources. The reform of public finance management will be implemented particularly through: (i) improvement of the legal framework; (ii) increased capacities for mobilizing resources; (iii) improvement in the preparation and methods for executing the government’s budget; (iv) regular accounting and financial reporting; (v) development of information systems; (vi) improved control and transparency of government finances; (vii) enhanced cash and debt management; and (viii) improvement of the public procurement and management system.

The coordination of development actions will be provided for and improved by enhancing the consistency of planning and budgeting instruments and improving the quality of instruments for coordinating and monitoring/evaluating public policies.

The objective of local governance is to strengthen local governments’ ability to ensure sustainable and balanced development in accordance with national decentralization policy and the provisions of the local government code.

In the area of administrative governance, the objective is to improve the quality and performance of public services by developing appropriate management and monitoring tools and instruments and effectively improving administrative operations. Moreover, particular attention will be paid to ensuring the effective decentralization of government services in coordination with local governments. For civil service employees in particular, this involves bringing about a profound change of attitude so they can provide public services to citizens more effectively. In addition, in its relationships with individuals and private institutions, the administration should act as the facilitator and provider of all services that can be expected of a modern, accessible, and responsible administration.

In the area of legal and judicial governance, the objective is to improve the operations of the legal and judicial system by instilling morality in the judicial sector, optimizing the existing legal and judicial apparatus, and modernizing the frameworks for the intervention and operation of justice.

2.2.2 Pillar 2: Creation of the conditions for sustainable, balanced, and inclusive development

The sustainable management of development requires assigning high priority to the nation’s security and defense, national unity and consolidation of the peace, the control of demographic growth, the management of environmental resources and adaptation to climate change, as well as to inter- and intra-regional development.

Securing the integrity of the country and the security of its citizens and property constitute the central objective of national defense and security (a vital prerequisite for implementing development policies). To achieve this, a policy of increased national security will be implemented and resources will be deployed to reduce instability and insecurity. There are also plans to establish preferential relationships with neighboring countries, to strengthen cooperation with friendly countries, and to help define a common security policy for the countries of the Sahel-Saharan zone.

To this end, the government has formulated and adopted a Security and Development Strategy in the Sahel-Saharan zones revolving around the following pillars: (i) strengthened security of persons and property; (ii) population’s access to economic opportunities; (iii) population’s access to basic social services; (iv) strengthened local governance; and (v) socioeconomic integration of returnees.

National unity has been sorely tested by armed rebellions affecting the northern and eastern portions of the country. Other types of threats also weigh on the country, particularly armed conflicts between communities, threats from criminal organizations involved in trafficking drugs, weapons, and cigarettes, armed robbery, highway robbery, and threats from terrorist groups, particularly those based in neighboring countries. Rebellions have had traumatic effects on the population and the aftermath continues to disrupt the development of affected areas. Promoting a culture of peace within the various national communities is thus a transition required for effective renewal of the national development process.

Given these varied threats, the option is to strengthen the ability of the Defense and Security Forces to combat the proliferation of firearms, armed banditry, and cattle rustling on the one hand, and to raise awareness and intensify actions to prevent and dissuade in areas potentially exposed to various threats and other inter-community disputes between herders and farmers on the other.

Population issues are very important in economic development. They will be addressed by controlling demographic growth and strengthening stakeholders’ ability to take demographic data into account in development policies, plans, and programs. The overall objective is to produce an attitude and behaviors suitable for encouraging population groups to significantly increase their use of contraception and reduce the number of early marriages. With these behavioral changes, it will be possible to trigger a gradual slowdown in the country’s demographic growth, to slow down social demand, and thus to facilitate generalized access to economic and social development.

In terms of the environment, the principal challenge is to break with inappropriate utilization of resources and to ensure that measures designed to accompany the country’s development do not compromise the needs of future generations. To this end, appropriate measures will be taken with regard to various aspects of the environment.

First of all, this will mean finding alternatives to using wood as a source of energy so as to mitigate losses of forest resources. This could also be of benefit in improving agricultural and livestock production systems. Projected improvements should offset the fragility of agricultural ecosystems covering seven million hectares currently under cultivation through methods that restore soil fertility, use less acreage, and produce less erosion from wind and water, and reduce desertification. Along the same lines, the pastoral area of the north and the lands reserved for pasture in agricultural areas should be used sustainably so as to save them from deterioration and desertification.

By preserving and mobilizing significant runoff, surface, and underground water, it will be possible to ensure successful agricultural, forestry, and livestock production and provide population groups with safe drinking water.

Preserving the biological diversity of flora and fauna and protecting the real wealth of genetic resources should help to improve agricultural, forestry, and livestock resources, both through strong awareness-building efforts on the national level and in the context of international scientific and technological cooperation.

Strengthening measures for adapting to climate change should, particularly through the development and transfer of non-polluting and environmentally friendly technologies, ensure increased capacities for gathering, processing, and disseminating data, and carrying out actions in the area of information, awareness-building, and education of the population on the dimensions of climate change.

Implementing a balanced regional and local development policy and establishing a true land management policy as the geographic expression of the country’s economic, social, cultural, and environmental policies will be conditions for strong, sustainable, and inclusive growth. In effect, this means organizing land use, ensuring consistency in the installation of large infrastructure projects, public equipment, and metropolitan areas. This determines long-term spatial management by ensuring the intra- and inter-regional balance of development activities and levels.

These policies should be based on three guiding and closely linked principles of intervention as follows: (i) economic and social development through a land management policy that contributes to food security by developing economic activities organized on an integrated basis; (ii) national integration seeking to reduce inter- and intra-regional disparities on the one hand and disparities between urban and rural areas on the other; (iii) the preservation and utilization of natural resources for sustainable management of the natural environment, i.e., the continuing search for a compromise between present and future generations in the development of environmental resources.

2.2.3 Pillar 3: Food security and sustainable agricultural development

Despite significant resources invested in the rural development sector, shortages of food products persist and subject population groups to food insecurity. To reverse this trend, the authorities of the Seventh Republic decided to implement the 3N Initiative, Nigeriens Nourishing Nigeriens.

The initiative expresses the collective belief that with its assets and the development opportunities they offer to the country, Niger is able to meet current and future food and nutritional security challenges, begin to truly modernize its systems of production, and allow its agricultural sector to play a major role in economic growth. It is addressing the root causes of food and nutritional insecurity, while proposing suitable responses to the emergency situations and economically precarious conditions that a significant segment of the population could face. The 3N Initiative specifically focuses on the efforts needed to improve the nutritional status of vulnerable groups. This improvement, besides consumption, depends to a large extent on eating habits and practices of care at the family and community level.

The Initiative’s objective is to “strengthen national food production capacities, provisioning, and resilience in the face of food crises and natural disasters.” It involves ensuring sufficient amounts and quality of food for all Nigeriens based essentially on local production, a national and regional agricultural market, and on households’ ability to be resilient in food crisis and disaster situations. Four strategic pillars were identified for achieving the I3N objective: (i) growth and diversification of agricultural, forestry, livestock, and fisheries production; (ii) regular provisioning of rural and urban markets with agricultural and food products; (iii) population groups’ improved resilience in the face of climate change, crises, and disasters; and (iv) improved nutritional status.

2.2.4 Pillar 4: Competitive and diversified economy for accelerated and inclusive growth

Given its enormous potential in terms of resources, particularly human, water, and mining resources, Niger is in a position to avoid enduring the extreme volatility of its production and its quasi-exclusive dependence on rainfall variations in the implementation of its economic policy.

To reverse this trend, the PDES sets itself the objective of creating the conditions for normal economic growth averaging at least seven percent and an average inflation rate of no more than three percent over the period. In addition, household consumption will be supported by an appropriate income policy. Measures will be taken to substantially increase the effectiveness of public spending and domestic and external resources.

With a broad program of structural public investments (Kandadji hydroelectric dam, gas-fired power station, roads, rail, etc.), it will be possible to stimulate growth, structure the national productive apparatus, and reduce the country’s isolation.

This growth should facilitate the creation of decent modern-sector jobs.

The guidelines for this pillar relate to improving the business climate, developing external relations, improving the competitiveness of economic sectors, and developing young people’s participation in economic activity.

Improving the business climate requires simplifying the regulatory framework applicable to business, improving the legal and judicial system, facilitating access to financing by revising the role and activity of banks, and facilitating and encouraging the creation and development of micro, small, and medium enterprise. In addition, measures encouraging the private sector will be implemented to facilitate the emergence of a dynamic private economic framework, such as facilitating business creation and administrative routines in general, granting targeted incentives for entrepreneurs, and reducing abnormally high costs.

Improving the quality and maintenance of hydraulic, electrical, highway, and communication infrastructures will help to improve the business climate and the competitiveness of productive units.

With respect to external relations, it is important to capitalize on regional integration with the WAEMU and ECOWAS countries, particularly in terms of export development. This also means seizing opportunities for trade with areas outside these communities.

It will also mean strengthening the institutional and organizational framework of industrial, energy, petroleum, and mining activities, reducing production costs in industry, increasing the promotion of national energy and oil resources, integrating the mining sector into the national economy, and developing small-scale mining operations.

With regard to the transportation sector, the guidelines seek to develop investments in air transport, bring airports up to standard, strengthen the monitoring of air transport services, strengthen administrative capacities in transportation, improve the quality of land transportation through road safety, renewal of the fleet, and professionalization of the sector, extend and improve the road network, and introduce rail transport.

In the tourism sector, this means ensuring better knowledge of tourism assets by strengthening tools for communication and promoting local, regional, and national destinations, encouraging investments in tourism, and maximizing and equitably distributing the economic benefits of tourism.

For the artisanal trades, this means developing artisanal products, developing trade channels, and supporting the search for new markets.

For inclusive growth, the objective of the national youth policy is to promote the economic integration of young people and their full participation in economic activities and to include the youth component in all sectoral programs and policies.

2.2.5 Pillar 5: Promotion of social development

In order to build on gains made in the area of social development, particular attention will be paid to the points below in an effort to improve access to basic social services, particularly through rational utilization of domestic financial resources.

In the area of social protection, the objective is to reduce the vulnerability of the population and disadvantaged groups in particular. To do this, social safety nets must be expanded to include all levels.

For education, teaching, and vocational and technical training, the objective is to qualitatively and quantitatively develop the supply of education, to adapt training to labor market demand, and to promote the use of results from scientific research and technological innovation.

In the area of water and sanitation, the objective is to improve the supply of drinking water, hygiene, and sanitation services in local communities and to promote changed behavior at the individual and community level.

In the area of public health, the objective is to provide quality care and services to the population, particularly vulnerable groups, while adhering to international standards by: (i) expanding health coverage; (ii) developing reproductive health services; (iii) staffing health facilities with skilled and motivated human resources based on need; (iv) providing continuous access to medications, vaccines, consumables, food and treatment inputs, reagents, blood, and derivatives; (v) intensifying efforts to combat diseases subject to integrated surveillance; (vi) strengthening governance and ethics at all levels of the health system; (vii) developing health sector financing mechanisms; (viii) promoting research in health; and (ix) promoting health at the community level.

Improving the population’s standard of living means promoting a spatial planning policy along with urban and rural development plans, preparing master plans for management of basic urban services (transportation, drainage, solid waste), and supporting local governments in the collection of household waste.

To promote gender equality and equity and human rights, the objective is to build, with all stakeholders, a non-discriminatory society where men and women, boys and girls, have the same opportunities to participate in development and enjoy the benefits of growth. This objective will be achieved by: (i) equitable promotion of the situation and social position of men and women within the family and in the community; (ii) equitable promotion of the potential and status of women and men within the household economy, particularly through the development of a strategy giving women access to financing; (iii) strengthening the effective enforcement of the rights of women, girls, and the disabled; (iv) combating gender-based violence; and (v) equitable participation by men and women in the management of power; and (vi) strengthening the institutional framework’s intervention capacities with respect to government structures, civil society, and the private sector.

With respect to human rights, the objective is to guarantee legal equity by ensuring the full enjoyment of human rights.

The objective of implementing the national youth policy is to promote young people’s integration in social life by developing adapted education and supporting socioeconomic integration initiatives.

3.1.1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

An evaluation of economic growth shows that the average annual rate of growth in the real economy was nearly 3.8 percent from 2000 to 2010. One of the objectives of the PDES is to considerably raise the real GDP growth rate.

The sectors considered to lead growth during the 4-year plan are extractive industries (petroleum and uranium), agriculture, forestry, and livestock production, and tertiary sectors, especially trade and transportation, which will be expected to respond to the needs that will be generated by the growth of the first two sectors.

Economic growth will therefore be sustained by the advancement of the primary sector, at an annual average of 7.4 percent. This will result from an increase in irrigated land, a rise of farm yields due to introduction of new seed varieties adapted to the effects of climate change and drought, and innovative production techniques, as well more effective investments in crops and livestock production. It will also stem from the predicted development of forestry during the period of the Plan. This growth of the primary sector is supported by the expected performance of the programs implemented under the 3N Initiative, which should make this sector one of the major sources of growth in the coming years.

It is the secondary sector that will be the driving force of the dynamic economy, with a growth rate predicted to average 12.5 percent a year. This performance will rely on the growth of exports, especially from extractive industries. The added value of this sector will grow at an average annual rate of more than 20 percent. Other subsectors, such as manufacturing and processing industries, energy, and construction and public works, while not the engines of the expected growth, will also contribute to it to a lesser extent, especially as a result of the spill-over effect of oil refining operations. In this scenario, the renewed activity would benefit from an average annual growth rate of 3 percent for processing industries, and the agrifood industry in particular. Moreover, the electric power sector is expected to record an annual average growth rate of 5.5 percent, while the construction and public works sector would advance at an impressive average annual rate of 9 percent during the Plan. These conditions would make it possible for needs to be met by the sharp rise in investments expected over the period covered by the Plan.

As for the tertiary sector, its added value would grow by nearly 7 percent per year on average during the 2012-2015 period, with market services estimated at 8 percent, dominated by transportation and communications, and the trade sector. Nonmarket services of the general government would grow by as much as 10 percent, with the scheduled rise in public investment and the major infrastructure projects in the pipeline.

The trade and transportation branches will accompany the strong performance of the other productive sectors, which will need them to support their production processes. The growth of these branches will also be stimulated by the road construction program and the opening of access to various communes stipulated in the Plan.

The informal sector will continue to play a considerable role in achieving the expected growth objectives. In fact, its importance is clearly seen in its share of the gross domestic product, estimated to average 68 percent over the 2007-2011 period.³⁸ This sector will achieve an annual average growth of nearly 7.5 percent during the Plan.

Table 9.

Gross Domestic Product

(in billions of CFAF and as a percentage)

Table 9.

Gross Domestic Product

(in billions of CFAF and as a percentage)

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2012-15
GDP at market prices (billions of current CFAF)	3,004.40	3,503.79	3,850.57	4,227.23	4,623.39	4,051,25
GDP at market prices (millions of current US$)	6,382.80	7,477.09	8,100.82	8,699.91	9,374.25	8,413.02
GDP at market prices (millions of euros)	4,580.13	5,341.49	5,870.16	6,444.38	7,048.31	6,176.09
GDP deflator	4.80%	4.50%	2.90%	2.60%	2.60%	3.15%
Share of the informal sector in GDP (% of GDP)	68.90%	68.20%	68.00%	67.90%	67.40%	67.90%
Real growth rate of GDP at market prices	2.10%	11.60%	6.80%	7.00%	6.60%	8.00%
Real growth rate of GDP at factor cost	1.20%	12.30%	7.00%	7.10%	6.70%	8.30%
GDP – primary sector	-3.10%	10.30%	6.60%	7.00%	5.80%	7.40%
GDP – secondary sector	4.30%	30.40%	5.70%	6.60%	7.60%	12.60%
GDP – tertiary sector	5.70%	7.50%	8.00%	8.00%	7.70%	7.80%
GDP – informal sector	-0.50%	11/8%	6.20%	7.00%	6.30%	7.50%

View Table

Table 9.

Gross Domestic Product

(in billions of CFAF and as a percentage)

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2012-15
GDP at market prices (billions of current CFAF)	3,004.40	3,503.79	3,850.57	4,227.23	4,623.39	4,051,25
GDP at market prices (millions of current US$)	6,382.80	7,477.09	8,100.82	8,699.91	9,374.25	8,413.02
GDP at market prices (millions of euros)	4,580.13	5,341.49	5,870.16	6,444.38	7,048.31	6,176.09
GDP deflator	4.80%	4.50%	2.90%	2.60%	2.60%	3.15%
Share of the informal sector in GDP (% of GDP)	68.90%	68.20%	68.00%	67.90%	67.40%	67.90%
Real growth rate of GDP at market prices	2.10%	11.60%	6.80%	7.00%	6.60%	8.00%
Real growth rate of GDP at factor cost	1.20%	12.30%	7.00%	7.10%	6.70%	8.30%
GDP – primary sector	-3.10%	10.30%	6.60%	7.00%	5.80%	7.40%
GDP – secondary sector	4.30%	30.40%	5.70%	6.60%	7.60%	12.60%
GDP – tertiary sector	5.70%	7.50%	8.00%	8.00%	7.70%	7.80%
GDP – informal sector	-0.50%	11/8%	6.20%	7.00%	6.30%	7.50%

3.1.2. Uses of the GDP

This dynamic growth process will be driven by stepped-up investment and the expected increase in domestic savings. During the period covered by the Plan, the gross fixed capital formation is estimated to attain about CFAF 6,760 billion, rising from nearly CFAF 1,130 billion to approximately 2,067 billion in 2015, or an average annual investment of close to CFAF 1,720 billion, for an average growth rate of 21 percent a year. This increase in investment is attributed to investment programs for new uranium deposits and capital applied to oil operations, forecast for the first two years of the Plan. The government, the private sector, and households will participate in this effort.

Domestic savings should increase annually by about 12.5 percent on average between 2012 and 2015, as a result of both an increase of its share in GDP from 10 percent in 2011 to 14.9 percent in 2015 and from the sharp rise of the GDP. The objective of strong and inclusive growth is one way of bringing about an overall improvement in the standard of living. Thus the volume of private consumption is expected to achieve an annual average growth rate of nearly 8.5 percent during the years of the Plan. Per capita consumption in constant prices will rise by about 5 percent between 2011 and 2015.

Moreover, one of the objectives of the PDES is an improvement in the standard of living by reducing inequalities and the growth of the middle class. This class is in fact regarded as the most active part of the population in terms of available skilled labor and increased domestic demand, in particular household consumption.

In Niger, this segment accounts for only 30 percent of the entire population, defined as the population that is neither poor nor belongs to the wealthiest segment of society (usually defined as the richest 10 percent). The middle class is not considered as an adequate basis for economic policies built on domestic demand. This situation is also a reflection of the inequalities prevalent in the country’s economy, encountered also in patterns of consumption.

According to a budget-consumption survey, the concentration of household consumption was 37 percent in 2008, as measured by the Gini coefficient. This concentration is clearer in urban areas, where the consumption ratio between the wealthiest 10 percent and the poorest 10 percent is 6.3 as compared to 3.7 in rural areas. However, the inequality between urban and rural areas is equally large: a poverty rate of 62 percent in rural areas in contrast to 38 percent in urban settings.

Thus, efforts are planned to lessen inequalities and increase the weight of the middle class to around 50 percent by 2015. Although this objective falls short of the corresponding MDG (30 percent poverty reduction by 2015), it nonetheless reflects substantial progress, in comparison with figures recorded in previous years.

To accomplish this, the Plan’s action program includes measures, reforms, and public investment programs in line with this objective. Thus, the food security and sustainable agricultural development pillar comprises 11 programs accounting for 15.6 percent of the total cost of the PDES. Measures to improve targeting of the poor for subsidies and transfers, as well as social development programs and activities, will also play an active role in achieving this objective.

An improvement in the standard of living of the population will also be achieved through a rigorous price policy. The objective is to limit inflation to 2.6 percent per year on average for the duration of the Plan. An improvement in fundamental financial, budget and external equilibria and adoption of a prudent monetary policy by the BCEAO will help to attain this objective.

These inflation control measures should also protect the people’s purchasing power and the competitiveness of the national economy in international markets.

The role of foreign trade in the country’s economic and social development strategy is critical. Export promotion and development of the leading economic sectors will be determining factors in achieving the objective of putting the national economy on track for strong growth from 2012 to 2015.

Exports of goods will grow by 28 percent a year on average over the period of the Plan, and by over 42 percent in 2012. This growth is attributed to oil exports and to the sharp rise in uranium exports following the recent mining of new deposits.

At the same time, imports of goods would increase by an annual average of 12.5 percent, in step with purchases of capital goods and intermediate goods, which should accompany the acceleration in investments.

The GDP supply-use balance would receive strong support from nonfactor services estimated in net terms at nearly CFAF 3,030 billion during the period covered by the Plan, or an average annual amount of CFAF 760 billion (20 percent of GDP). This strengthens GDP resources and makes it possible to maintain high levels of consumption and investment over the period.

Table 10.

Changes in the trade balance and the balance of non-factor services from 2011 to 2015

(in billions of CFAF)

Table 10.

Changes in the trade balance and the balance of non-factor services from 2011 to 2015

(in billions of CFAF)

Years:	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Trade balance	-448.30	-394.90	-334./40	-344/5-	-311/1-
Balance of non-factor services	-380.70	-418.00	-666.90	-889.80	-1,052.80

View Table

Table 10.

Changes in the trade balance and the balance of non-factor services from 2011 to 2015

(in billions of CFAF)

Years:	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Trade balance	-448.30	-394.90	-334./40	-344/5-	-311/1-
Balance of non-factor services	-380.70	-418.00	-666.90	-889.80	-1,052.80

Table 11.

Balance between supply and use

(as a percentage of GDP)

Table 11.

Balance between supply and use

(as a percentage of GDP)

Years:	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Total GDP	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%
Final consumption as a percentage of GDP	90.00%	86.80%	85.00%	85.60%	85.10%
Final consumption in billions of CFAF	2,703.96	3,041.29	3,272.98	3,618.51	3,934.51
Gross investment in billions of CFAF	1,128.80	1,275.40	1,578.70	1,843.10	2,066.70
Gross investment as a percentage of GDP	37.57%	36.40%	41.00%	43.60%	44.70%
Balance of goods and services (nonfactor)	-27.57%	-23.30%	-26.00%	-29.20%	-29.80%

View Table

Table 11.

Balance between supply and use

(as a percentage of GDP)

Years:	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Total GDP	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%
Final consumption as a percentage of GDP	90.00%	86.80%	85.00%	85.60%	85.10%
Final consumption in billions of CFAF	2,703.96	3,041.29	3,272.98	3,618.51	3,934.51
Gross investment in billions of CFAF	1,128.80	1,275.40	1,578.70	1,843.10	2,066.70
Gross investment as a percentage of GDP	37.57%	36.40%	41.00%	43.60%	44.70%
Balance of goods and services (nonfactor)	-27.57%	-23.30%	-26.00%	-29.20%	-29.80%

3.1.3 Money and credit

During the period covered by the Plan, the financial sector should play an increasing role in improving the business climate. The growth of the money supply should respond to both the financing needs of the economy and the need to control inflation.

Thus, the money supply would grow overall by 28.2 percent a year during the Plan, from CFAF 602.5 billion in 2011 to CFAF 1,212 billion in 2015. This trend will reflect a consolidation of net foreign assets, which will rise at an annual average of 2.7 percent between 2011 and 2015, from CFAF 255 billion to CFAF 304.4 billion. It will also reflect an annual average increase of 34 percent in credits to the economy, from CFAF 404 billion in 2011 to CFAF 960 billion in 2015. On the other hand, net claims on the treasury would decline. The two issues in June 2011 of CFAF 34.5 billion and CFAF 25 billion in December 2011 and use of public deposits in 2012 partially explain the trends in the net government position between 2011 and 2012.

Table 12.

Money supply counterparts

(in billions of CFAF)

Table 12.

Money supply counterparts

(in billions of CFAF)

Years:	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Net foreign assets	254.90	293.10	279.30	269.20	304.40
Domestic credit	419.80	354.10	301.10	486.50	604.10
Net government position	15.80	-23.50	-16.40	-7.30	-20.30
Credits to the economy	404.00	529.30	630.00	820.00	960.00
Money supply (money and quasi money)	602.50	730.80	892.70	1,010.00	1,212.80

View Table

Table 12.

Money supply counterparts

(in billions of CFAF)

Years:	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Net foreign assets	254.90	293.10	279.30	269.20	304.40
Domestic credit	419.80	354.10	301.10	486.50	604.10
Net government position	15.80	-23.50	-16.40	-7.30	-20.30
Credits to the economy	404.00	529.30	630.00	820.00	960.00
Money supply (money and quasi money)	602.50	730.80	892.70	1,010.00	1,212.80

The expected increase in credits to the economy responds to the need for financing local investments, which should grow at an average annual rate of 20 percent, and to the rate of creation of activities in the modern sector and the relative shrinking of the informal sector in the national economy. Control over the recommended monetary increase should be continuous and measured, in order to keep inflation within the limits of WAEMU’s convergence criteria.

3.1.4. Government finance

Under the Plan, government finance will help build public investment and keep the budget deficit at a sustainable level, while ensuring attainment of development goals.

To achieve this, the tax burden is expected to rise, from 13.3 percent (excluding exemptions) in 2010 to 18 percent in 2015, thanks to the implementation of a certain number of measures, such as simplification of the tax system, making it more transparent and equitable, and revision of the incentive system. The tax base will be expanded, and efforts will be made to improve collection of taxes and assessments.

Reforms initiated in 2011 and scheduled to be completed by 2013 will provide for the following: i) tighter controls by increasing the number of audits of mineral and petroleum companies; ii) increased control of tax exemptions; iii) establish and increase the level of penalties for tax fraud; iv) development of ex-post controls; v) assignment of tax identification numbers to importers and economic operators; and vi) revision of the investment code to review and eliminate exemptions.

The ratio of total receipts to GDP will rise from 13.2 percent in 2011 to nearly 19 percent during the period covered by the Plan.

Table 13.

Change in recurrent revenue

(in billions of CFAF and as a % of GDP)

Table 13.

Change in recurrent revenue

(in billions of CFAF and as a % of GDP)

Years:	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Total revenue (billions of CFAF)	627.90	599.10	650.70	756.70	873.80
Tax revenue (% of GDP)	16.20%	15.20%	16.00%	17.00%	18.00%
Tax revenue (billions of CFAF)	485.90	532.60	616.10	718.60	832.20
Nontax revenue and supplementary budget + special accounts (billions of CFAF)	28.50	66.20	35.90	38.90	39.90
Nontax revenue and supplementary budget + special accounts (% of GDP)	0.95%	1.90%	0.90%	0.90%	0.90%

View Table

Table 13.

Change in recurrent revenue

(in billions of CFAF and as a % of GDP)

Years:	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Total revenue (billions of CFAF)	627.90	599.10	650.70	756.70	873.80
Tax revenue (% of GDP)	16.20%	15.20%	16.00%	17.00%	18.00%
Tax revenue (billions of CFAF)	485.90	532.60	616.10	718.60	832.20
Nontax revenue and supplementary budget + special accounts (billions of CFAF)	28.50	66.20	35.90	38.90	39.90
Nontax revenue and supplementary budget + special accounts (% of GDP)	0.95%	1.90%	0.90%	0.90%	0.90%

At the same time, emphasis will be placed on the quality of government expenditure, with the rationalization of recurrent expenditures, to be kept below 15.0% of GDP, and with control of interest on the external debt, by debt restructuring and management.

Moreover, between 2012 and 2015, subsidies and transfers will increase by an annual average of 8.6 percent, from nearly CFAF 114 billion in 2012 to more than CFAF 198 billion in 2015, along with better targeting of the most vulnerable population groups and measures to assist them.

Overall, the total treasury budget deficit would amount to around CFAF 884 billion by 2015, or 19.1 percent of GDP.

Table 14.

Change in government expenditure

(in billions of CFAF)

(^*) Including grants for budget financing or for financing projects and loans, and redemption and cancellation of the debt (including debt currently under discussion).

Table 14.

Change in government expenditure

(in billions of CFAF)

Years	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Total expenditure	691.90	779.70	1263.70	1,547.70	1,758.80
Current expenditure	461.30	423.30	493.60	556.40	623.60
Current budget expenditure		391.90	458.70	516.50	578.10
Salaries and wages	141.00	146.10	165.20	188.30	214.00
Materials and supplies	115.40	120.00	121.00	133.10	150.10
Subsidies and transfers	197.30	114.50	158.70	180.40	198.30
Interest due	7.60	11.20	13.80	14.70	15.70
Including external debt	6.40	6.90	7.30	8.10	9.00
Supplementary budgets/special accounts	ND	30.40	34.90	39.90	45.50
Capital expenditure and net lending	206	357.40	770.10	991.30	1,134.20
(**) Investment expenditure	206	357.40	770.10	991.70	1,136.50
Net lending	0	0	-0.40	-0.40	-2.30
Other expenditures	24.60	0	0	0	0
Overall balance (commitment basis)	-177.5039	-180.60	-613.00	-789.00	-884.00
Overall balance as percentage of GDP	-5.90%	-5.20%	-15.90%	-18.70%	-19.10%
Overall balance (cash basis)	-65.90	-180.60	-613.00	-789.00	-764.65
Financing	65.90	50.00	457.30	633.70	707.20
External	39.60	55.00	467.10	641.50	707.20
Domestic	26.30	-5.0	-9.70	-7.80	0
Financing Gap	0	130.60	155.70	155.30	176.80

(^*) Including grants for budget financing or for financing projects and loans, and redemption and cancellation of the debt (including debt currently under discussion).

View Table

Table 14.

Change in government expenditure

(in billions of CFAF)

Years	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Total expenditure	691.90	779.70	1263.70	1,547.70	1,758.80
Current expenditure	461.30	423.30	493.60	556.40	623.60
Current budget expenditure		391.90	458.70	516.50	578.10
Salaries and wages	141.00	146.10	165.20	188.30	214.00
Materials and supplies	115.40	120.00	121.00	133.10	150.10
Subsidies and transfers	197.30	114.50	158.70	180.40	198.30
Interest due	7.60	11.20	13.80	14.70	15.70
Including external debt	6.40	6.90	7.30	8.10	9.00
Supplementary budgets/special accounts	ND	30.40	34.90	39.90	45.50
Capital expenditure and net lending	206	357.40	770.10	991.30	1,134.20
(**) Investment expenditure	206	357.40	770.10	991.70	1,136.50
Net lending	0	0	-0.40	-0.40	-2.30
Other expenditures	24.60	0	0	0	0
Overall balance (commitment basis)	-177.5039	-180.60	-613.00	-789.00	-884.00
Overall balance as percentage of GDP	-5.90%	-5.20%	-15.90%	-18.70%	-19.10%
Overall balance (cash basis)	-65.90	-180.60	-613.00	-789.00	-764.65
Financing	65.90	50.00	457.30	633.70	707.20
External	39.60	55.00	467.10	641.50	707.20
Domestic	26.30	-5.0	-9.70	-7.80	0
Financing Gap	0	130.60	155.70	155.30	176.80

(^*) Including grants for budget financing or for financing projects and loans, and redemption and cancellation of the debt (including debt currently under discussion).

3.1.5. Balance of payments

The current balance of payments deficit is expected to be 30 percent of GDP in 2015, thus reflecting a considerable deterioration from its 2011 level of 22.7 percent. This outcome can essentially be attributed to the need to import capital goods, at a rate expected to increase by over 20 percent, leading to a 12.5 percent rise in imports. Moreover, imports of nonfactor services will experience a net rise of 44 percent a year between 2011 and 2015. The trade deficit, however, will decline from 15 percent of GDP in 2011 to 6.7 percent in 2015, due to the new oil and gas exports and the increase in uranium exports. As a result, exports of goods at nominal value will shoot up by 112 percent from 2011 to 2015.

Table 15.

Balance of payments

(in billions of CFAF)

Table 15.

Balance of payments

(in billions of CFAF)

Year	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Current account	-682.70	-754.30	-981.10	-1,210.50	-1,386.10
Current account as a percentage of GDP	-22.72%	-21.50%	-25.50%	-28.60%	-30.00%
Trade balance	-448.30	-394.90	-334.40	-344.50	-311.10
Trade balance as a percentage of GDP	-14.92%	-11.27%	-8.68%	-8.15%	-6.73%
Exports	589.60	836.00	936.40	1,069.50	1,247.70
Uranium	348.80	360.50	356.90	469.80	629.10
Petroleum		157.80	240.70	228.00	208.60
Other exports	240.80	317.70	338.70	371.70	409.90
Imports FOB	1,037.90	1,230.90	1,270.80	1,414.00	1,558.80
Energy products	163.40	17.00	15.60	15.70	15.60
Food products	143.40	236.00	238.50	238.90	240.20
Capital goods	351.60	454.80	475.00	607.30	693.50
Other imports	379.50	523.10	541.70	552.10	609.50
Nonfactor services	-380.00	-418.00	-666.80	-887.80	-1,052.80
Income (factor services)	-23.40	-95.90	-141.70	-146.60	-201.90
Current transfers	169.00	154.50	161.80	170.60	179.70
Direct investment (net)	498.80	509.10	305.50	296.00	323.40
Portfolio investment	8.20	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50
Other investment	74.40	189.80	203.30	229.60	250.80
OVERALL BALANCE	-101.30	-50.80	-469.80	-690.20	-806.60

View Table

Table 15.

Balance of payments

(in billions of CFAF)

Year	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Current account	-682.70	-754.30	-981.10	-1,210.50	-1,386.10
Current account as a percentage of GDP	-22.72%	-21.50%	-25.50%	-28.60%	-30.00%
Trade balance	-448.30	-394.90	-334.40	-344.50	-311.10
Trade balance as a percentage of GDP	-14.92%	-11.27%	-8.68%	-8.15%	-6.73%
Exports	589.60	836.00	936.40	1,069.50	1,247.70
Uranium	348.80	360.50	356.90	469.80	629.10
Petroleum		157.80	240.70	228.00	208.60
Other exports	240.80	317.70	338.70	371.70	409.90
Imports FOB	1,037.90	1,230.90	1,270.80	1,414.00	1,558.80
Energy products	163.40	17.00	15.60	15.70	15.60
Food products	143.40	236.00	238.50	238.90	240.20
Capital goods	351.60	454.80	475.00	607.30	693.50
Other imports	379.50	523.10	541.70	552.10	609.50
Nonfactor services	-380.00	-418.00	-666.80	-887.80	-1,052.80
Income (factor services)	-23.40	-95.90	-141.70	-146.60	-201.90
Current transfers	169.00	154.50	161.80	170.60	179.70
Direct investment (net)	498.80	509.10	305.50	296.00	323.40
Portfolio investment	8.20	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50
Other investment	74.40	189.80	203.30	229.60	250.80
OVERALL BALANCE	-101.30	-50.80	-469.80	-690.20	-806.60

The current balance of payments deficit will be partly covered by private foreign resources. Foreign direct investment (FDI) will be an important component of this coverage, rising to CFAF 1,425 billion during the Plan, driven by the public-private partnership law (PPP), in particular.

This objective in terms of FDI will be achieved as a result of Niger’s real areas of potential (natural resources in particular), and inflation control and financial equilibrium policies to be pursued by the government, as well as by implementing incentives to promote the business climate and the private sector. The advance of FDI should be encouraged by this situation, and make it possible to create production and processing units in the agricultural-forest-livestock sector in a context conducive to strengthening public-private partnerships. This should thus contribute to the investment effort that the country should make to accelerate economic growth.

3.1.6. Alternative growth scenarios

The government will give priority to achieving a high growth scenario. 2012 estimates still confirm the realization of this scenario and allow for a forecast of 9.7 percent growth on average over the four-year period. Economic trend analyses and monitoring-evaluation studies to be conducted during the period will show whether the national economy is still on a high growth path or whether the baseline or low-growth scenarios should be considered instead.

More than the other two scenarios, the high-growth scenario will give government authorities an opportunity to implement their proactive policy under the PDES. If the recommended measures and reforms are implemented independently of the scenarios, the prospects for financing and implementing public investment projects will be improved. The capacity for making public investment will be greater if domestic and external financial balances are maintained, along with viable debt conditions.

In this scenario, the investment rate (GFCF/GDP) will evolve according to the baseline scenario, rising from 37.6 percent in 2011 to 44.7 percent in 2015, for an annual average of 41.4 percent. Investments will soar to CFAF 2,204 billion by 2015, for an average annual growth of 23.8 percent, as compared to 20.7 percent under the baseline scenario. The average propensity to consume will decline to 85 percent in 2015, as compared to 90 percent in 2011. Final consumption will, however, register around a growth rate in the neighborhood of 12 percent, which implies an annual improvement in the standard of living of nearly 7 percent in terms of the increase in per capita consumption, as compared to 5 percent according to the baseline scenario.

Among the main implications of this scenario, the public finance deficit would rise to 19.4 percent in 2015, as opposed to 19.1 percent in the baseline scenario, and the current account deficit would be 28.6 percent of GDP, rather than 27.8 percent according to the baseline scenario. In the area of financing, this scenario shows an overall financing gap during the four years that is CFAF 105 billion more than under the baseline scenario.

This scenario, more than the others, relies on the government taking steps to increase the absorptive capacity of public investment, so that its weak capacity will not constrain its ability to achieve the objectives of this scenario. A plan for building human, material, and organizational capacities will be put in place and will support efforts to achieve the PDES.

The three scenarios are presented in detail in Annex 1.

The low-growth scenario

This scenario assumes a proactive government policy in an unfavorable environment that holds the possibility of frequent drought years during the period covered by the Plan, and an average annual growth rate for the primary sector of no more than 6.2 percent, instead of 8 percent under the baseline scenario, despite reform and investment efforts.

External demand will continue to be depressed, and this will limit external financing to the levels already recorded. As a result, external demand will lead to a weak export performance during the years covered by the Plan. The average growth of the secondary sector will be slightly affected, remaining below 10.9 percent, instead of the 11.5 percent forecast of the baseline scenario.

This scenario will also see reductions in consumption, savings, and investment, especially public investment, which will be squeezed by the combined effect of a drop in tax revenues and a drying up of financing sources. Thus, the implementation rate will be considerably below the rate achieved in the baseline scenario. There will also be repercussions on the level of domestic and external financial balances and inflation control.

However, the various measures and reforms announced in the Plan will be retained under this scenario. The GFCF/GDP ratio will experience the same changes as in the baseline scenario, as will the proactive approach of government, even during economic downturns.

Table 16.

Change in the principal macroeconomic indicators in the low-growth scenario

Table 16.

Change in the principal macroeconomic indicators in the low-growth scenario

Year	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2012-15
GDP at market prices (billions of current CFAF)	3,004.00	3,468.80	3,739.60	4,014.10	4,319.50
Informal sector share of GDP (% of GDP)	68.90%	69.85%	69.53%	69.18%	68.55%
Real growth rate of GDP at market prices	2.10%	10.50%	4.77%	4.62%	4.88%	6.20%
Primary sector GDP	-3.10%	9.30%	6.10%	6.00%	6.10%	7.10%
Secondary sector GDP	4.30%	25.00%	4.50%	4.20%	4.50%	10.90%
Tertiary sector GDP	5.70%	7.00%	4.40%	4.20%	4.70%	5.20%
Informal sector GDP	-0.50%	9.10%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	7.00%
Final consumption in billions of CFAF	2,704.00	3,010.70	3,178.50	3,436.60	3,678.60
Final consumption as % of GDP	90.00%	86.80%	85.00%	85.60%	85.10%
Gross investment	37.60%	36.40%	41.00%	43.60%	44.70%
Total revenue	627.90	593.40	634.20	721.40	818.00
Tax revenue in billions of CFAF	485.90	527.20	598.30	682.50	778.10
Tax revenue as % of GDP	13.00%	15.20%	16.00%	17.00%	18.00%
Current expenditures	461.30	412L30	475.30	539.30	604.30	507.80
Capital expenditure and net lending	206.00	350.80	747.90	946.70	1,068.00	3,113.40
Total expenditures	667.30	763.10	1,223.20	1,486.00	1,672.30
Overall balance (commitment basis)	-177.50	-169.70	-589.00	-764.60	-864.30
Overall balance as % of GDP	-5.90%	-4.90%	-15.70%	-19.00%	-20.00%
Current account as % of GDP	-22.70%	-21.50%	-25.50%	-28.60%	-30.00%
Current account	-632.70	-754.30	-952.20	-1,148.30	-1,297.40
Trade balance as % of GDP	-14.90%	-8.95%	-8.40%	-9.70%	-9.80%
Exports	89.60	800.00	900.400	1,009.50	1,107.70
Imports, FOB	-1,037.90	-1,110.30	-1,213.30	-1,400.00	-1,530.00
Direct investment (net)	498.80	502.90	295.40	281.00	302.60

View Table

Table 16.

Change in the principal macroeconomic indicators in the low-growth scenario

Year	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2012-15
GDP at market prices (billions of current CFAF)	3,004.00	3,468.80	3,739.60	4,014.10	4,319.50
Informal sector share of GDP (% of GDP)	68.90%	69.85%	69.53%	69.18%	68.55%
Real growth rate of GDP at market prices	2.10%	10.50%	4.77%	4.62%	4.88%	6.20%
Primary sector GDP	-3.10%	9.30%	6.10%	6.00%	6.10%	7.10%
Secondary sector GDP	4.30%	25.00%	4.50%	4.20%	4.50%	10.90%
Tertiary sector GDP	5.70%	7.00%	4.40%	4.20%	4.70%	5.20%
Informal sector GDP	-0.50%	9.10%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	7.00%
Final consumption in billions of CFAF	2,704.00	3,010.70	3,178.50	3,436.60	3,678.60
Final consumption as % of GDP	90.00%	86.80%	85.00%	85.60%	85.10%
Gross investment	37.60%	36.40%	41.00%	43.60%	44.70%
Total revenue	627.90	593.40	634.20	721.40	818.00
Tax revenue in billions of CFAF	485.90	527.20	598.30	682.50	778.10
Tax revenue as % of GDP	13.00%	15.20%	16.00%	17.00%	18.00%
Current expenditures	461.30	412L30	475.30	539.30	604.30	507.80
Capital expenditure and net lending	206.00	350.80	747.90	946.70	1,068.00	3,113.40
Total expenditures	667.30	763.10	1,223.20	1,486.00	1,672.30
Overall balance (commitment basis)	-177.50	-169.70	-589.00	-764.60	-864.30
Overall balance as % of GDP	-5.90%	-4.90%	-15.70%	-19.00%	-20.00%
Current account as % of GDP	-22.70%	-21.50%	-25.50%	-28.60%	-30.00%
Current account	-632.70	-754.30	-952.20	-1,148.30	-1,297.40
Trade balance as % of GDP	-14.90%	-8.95%	-8.40%	-9.70%	-9.80%
Exports	89.60	800.00	900.400	1,009.50	1,107.70
Imports, FOB	-1,037.90	-1,110.30	-1,213.30	-1,400.00	-1,530.00
Direct investment (net)	498.80	502.90	295.40	281.00	302.60

The low-growth scenario thus reveals trade deficits, ranging from 15 percent in 2011 to 10 percent in 2015. This scenario places public investment expenditure at about CFAF 113 billion. Because of the difficulties in fulfilling the plan under this scenario (implementation rate estimated at 55 percent), this amount would correspond to a total budget of CFAF 5,660 billion for the years of the Plan. The budget would be CFAF 5,195 billion on the assumption that the implementation rate could increase to 60 percent.