Abstract
Despite the global slowdown, Cambodia’s economy has been holding up, driven by resilient exports and tourism and a strong real estate recovery. Fiscal policy has remained anchored in rebuilding government deposits and maintaining long-term fiscal debt sustainability, while providing adequate financing for Cambodia’s vast development needs. Executive Directors identified greater mobilization of fiscal revenues imperative to rebuild government deposits, and maintained that focus should be on measures that would generate substantial additional revenue and create strong positive externalities.
This Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) shows that Cambodia’s debt distress rating remains low under the baseline scenario. However, under an alternative scenario of limited reform progress, the scope for absorbing risk is substantially reduced. This underscores the need for sustaining strong growth, pursuing fiscal consolidation and mobilizing revenue, and improving debt and contingent liability management.
1. This DSA incorporates the following updates relative to the previous one: The macroeconomic assumptions for the baseline scenario are broadly similar to those in last year’s DSA, while debt-to-GDP ratio at end-2011 was slightly higher due to larger disbursement of bilateral debt. The rating of Cambodia’s policies and institutions remains unchanged at “medium performer,” but the discount rate is revised to 3 percent from 4 percent last year, reflecting the decline of long-term Commercial Interest Reference Rates over the past few years.2
2. The results show that Cambodia’s risk of debt distress remains low as debt burden indicators under the baseline scenario do not breach their relevant thresholds. Under an alternative scenario of a limited reform progress, however, the indicator would breach the threshold, showing a lower scope for absorbing risks.
Cambodia’s Public Debt
3. At end-2011, the stock of Cambodia’s external public debt, including arrears, stood at around US$3.8 billion or 30 percent of GDP (24 percent in NPV terms). The debt-to-GDP ratio has increased from 27 percent in 2008, partly reflecting greater external fiscal financing during the economic slowdown in 2009 and a continuation of donor-financed development spending above precrisis levels in 2010 and 2011.
4. Multilateral creditors continue to hold a substantial amount of Cambodia’s external debt. However, their share in total debt has declined from 50 percent in 2009 to 40 percent in 2011 as a result of larger disbursement of bilateral debt during 2010–11. China remains the largest bilateral creditor, contributing to 40 percent of the total bilateral debt stock and 80 percent of bilateral debt disbursement during the past two years. In 1995, Cambodia concluded Paris Club agreements with France, Germany, Italy, and Japan. However, Cambodia remains in arrears to the Russian Federation and the United States (about 20 percent of total debt or 6 percent of GDP), and the status of negotiations of these arrears has remained unchanged since the last DSA. Cambodia is not servicing its debt with these two creditors, with efforts needed to conclude agreements under the Paris Club framework. Since prospects for resolution remain unclear, this DSA assumes no debt restructuring, with arrears continuing to build up over the projection period.
5. Cambodia has virtually no domestic public debt. There is a small amount of bonds (US$4 million) issued in the early 2000s and some old claims on the government (half percent of GDP, with no interest) that were carried over from the 1990s and continue to be recorded in the monetary survey.
6. In early 2012, Cambodia adopted a new debt management strategy, aimed at managing debt risks, coordinating and implementing debt management policies, and developing debt management capacity. It also includes a DSA that considers two potential higher borrowing scenarios in order to highlight the sustainability implications of deviating from the government’s commitment to medium-term fiscal consolidation as outlined in the accompanying staff report. The first scenario assumes new concessional loan disbursement of SDR 400–700 million annually during 2011–18, and as a result, the debt distress would rise to medium risk. The second scenario assumes an annual disbursement of SDR 400–800 million and the debt distress would further increase to high risk.3 The results of these two scenarios are consistent with the alternative scenario in last year’s joint IMF-World Bank DSA, which showed that larger borrowing (up to US$880 million annually, twice that under the baseline) would lower the debt distress rating to medium risk. The authorities’ debt strategy also emphasizes the importance of monitoring contingent liabilities, including those related to power generation and distribution projects that are being developed under the public-private partnership (PPP).
Macroeconomic Framework
7. The macroeconomic framework underlying the baseline scenario remains broadly in line with the previous DSA.
Growth and inflation: Despite the global slowdown, growth has been holding up, driven by robust garment exports, particularly to the European Union, strong tourism activities, and a recovering real estate sector. Real GDP is projected to grow 6½ percent in 2012, a slight moderation from last year, but would reach its potential of about 7½ percent by 2017.4 Apart from a gradual improvement in the global economy, this critically depends on reforms to upgrade infrastructure and promote economic diversification, as well as enhance public sector revenue and service delivery. Despite the recent increase in global food prices, inflation would stay at 3–4 percent during 2012–13. It is expected to average 3 percent over the medium term, in line with the authorities’ informal target and partner countries’ medium-term inflation performance.
External stability: The current account deficit including official transfers is projected to peak at 10 percent of GDP in 2012, reflecting moderating exports and large imports related to the power generation projects, but the deficit remains fully financed by FDI and official loans. Over the medium term, the deficit is projected to narrow to 5½ percent of GDP, driven by robust export growth and slower import growth after the completion of large power-generation projects. Gross official reserves are projected to stay comfortably at more than four months of prospective imports. In line with staffs’ recommendation of gradual medium-term fiscal consolidation, external debt disbursement is projected to average US$500 million (2½ percent of GDP) annually during 2012–17, mostly concessional, although the grant elements of some bilateral debts are slightly less than 35 percent.
Fiscal sustainability: Revenue performance has improved in 2012 and the progress of fiscal consolidation is on track, although the government fiscal buffers remain limited. Domestic revenue is projected to increase by ½ percent of GDP annually over the medium term in line with the authorities’ goal under the Public Financial Management Reform Program. Medium-term fiscal consolidation is anchored by a rebuilding of government deposits and maintenance of long-term fiscal debt sustainability, while striking a careful balance with providing resources for Cambodia’s vast development needs against an expected gradual decline of concessional external funds.
Cambodia: Macroeconomic Framework, 2011–32, Baseline Scenario
Cambodia: Macroeconomic Framework, 2011–32, Baseline Scenario
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2013–17 | 2018–22 | 2023–32 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est. | Proj. | |||||||||||
| Output and prices (percent change) | ||||||||||||
| GDP growth | 7.1 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | ||
| Consumer prices (end-year) | 4.9 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Public finance (GFSM 2001 presentation, in percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | 15.6 | 16.2 | 16.6 | 17.2 | 17.4 | 17.6 | 18.0 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.6 | ||
| Domestic revenue | 12.3 | 13.2 | 13.7 | 14.2 | 14.7 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 14.7 | 16.7 | 17.9 | ||
| Grants | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | ||
| Total expenditure | 19.6 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 18.9 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 19.0 | 18.9 | 19.2 | ||
| Net lending (+)/borrowing(-) | −4.1 | −3.2 | −2.7 | −2.2 | −1.5 | −1.0 | −0.6 | −1.6 | −0.7 | −0.6 | ||
| Balance of payments (in percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||||
| Current account balance (including transfers) | −8.1 | −10.0 | −9.9 | −7.7 | −7.1 | −6.2 | −5.6 | −7.3 | −6.2 | −5.7 | ||
| Foreign direct investment | 11.5 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | ||
| External loans | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | ||
| Gross official reserves (in months of next year’s imports) | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | ||
Cambodia: Macroeconomic Framework, 2011–32, Baseline Scenario
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2013–17 | 2018–22 | 2023–32 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est. | Proj. | |||||||||||
| Output and prices (percent change) | ||||||||||||
| GDP growth | 7.1 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | ||
| Consumer prices (end-year) | 4.9 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Public finance (GFSM 2001 presentation, in percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | 15.6 | 16.2 | 16.6 | 17.2 | 17.4 | 17.6 | 18.0 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.6 | ||
| Domestic revenue | 12.3 | 13.2 | 13.7 | 14.2 | 14.7 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 14.7 | 16.7 | 17.9 | ||
| Grants | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | ||
| Total expenditure | 19.6 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 18.9 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 19.0 | 18.9 | 19.2 | ||
| Net lending (+)/borrowing(-) | −4.1 | −3.2 | −2.7 | −2.2 | −1.5 | −1.0 | −0.6 | −1.6 | −0.7 | −0.6 | ||
| Balance of payments (in percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||||
| Current account balance (including transfers) | −8.1 | −10.0 | −9.9 | −7.7 | −7.1 | −6.2 | −5.6 | −7.3 | −6.2 | −5.7 | ||
| Foreign direct investment | 11.5 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | ||
| External loans | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | ||
| Gross official reserves (in months of next year’s imports) | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | ||
8. The alternative scenario assumes limited progress in structural and fiscal reforms. Slow progress in improving the business and investment climate would reduce FDI and lower export growth, and as a result, real GDP growth would stay flat at around 6 percent. However, the overall impact on the current account and the balance of payment is minimal as import growth would also be lower. At the same time, efforts at greater revenue mobilization would remain limited or suffer delays, and domestic revenue collection would stay flat in terms of GDP over the medium term before gradually improving in the long run. Lower revenue collection would imply a greater reliance on foreign-financed capital spending, in which case external debt disbursement would average around 3¾ percent of GDP annually over the medium term, compared to slightly more than 2½ percent of GDP in the baseline scenario.
Cambodia: Macroeconomic Framework 2013-32, Limited Reform Progress Scenario
Cambodia: Macroeconomic Framework 2013-32, Limited Reform Progress Scenario
| 2013–17 | 2018–22 | 2023–32 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 6.2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | |
| Public finance (GFSM 2001, percent of GDP) | ||||
| Revenue | 16.3 | 16.6 | 17.6 | |
| Expenditure | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.0 | |
| Net lending (+)/borrowing(-) | −2.8 | −2.6 | −1.3 | |
| Balance of payments (percent of GDP) | ||||
| Current account balance (including transfers) | −8.3 | −7.2 | −4.2 | |
| Foreign direct investment | 7.3 | 5.2 | 3.9 | |
| External loans | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.2 | |
Cambodia: Macroeconomic Framework 2013-32, Limited Reform Progress Scenario
| 2013–17 | 2018–22 | 2023–32 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 6.2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | |
| Public finance (GFSM 2001, percent of GDP) | ||||
| Revenue | 16.3 | 16.6 | 17.6 | |
| Expenditure | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.0 | |
| Net lending (+)/borrowing(-) | −2.8 | −2.6 | −1.3 | |
| Balance of payments (percent of GDP) | ||||
| Current account balance (including transfers) | −8.3 | −7.2 | −4.2 | |
| Foreign direct investment | 7.3 | 5.2 | 3.9 | |
| External loans | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.2 | |
External and Public Debt Sustainability
9. The external DSA under the baseline macroeconomic outlook indicates that Cambodia’s risk of debt distress remains low (Figure 1, Tables 1a and 1b). The PV of debt-to-GDP, debt-to-exports, and debt-to-revenue ratios are expected to decline over the 20-year projection period and remain below the respective indicative thresholds. The debt service-to-exports and debt service-to-revenue ratios would also stay well below the thresholds throughout the projection period partly due to the concessionality of debts. The standard stress tests also do not reveal any serious vulnerability, although the debt-to-revenue ratio appears sensitive to exchange rate and export shocks, highlighting the importance of raising revenue collections.
Cambodia: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2012–32 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 002; 10.5089/9781475580822.002.A003
Sources: Cambodian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2022. In figure b. it corresponds to a onetime depreciation shock; in c. to an exports shock; in d. to a one-time depreciation shock; in e. to an exports shock and in figure f. to an exports shock.
Cambodia: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2012–32 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 002; 10.5089/9781475580822.002.A003
Sources: Cambodian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2022. In figure b. it corresponds to a onetime depreciation shock; in c. to an exports shock; in d. to a one-time depreciation shock; in e. to an exports shock and in figure f. to an exports shock.Cambodia: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2012–32 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 002; 10.5089/9781475580822.002.A003
Sources: Cambodian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2022. In figure b. it corresponds to a onetime depreciation shock; in c. to an exports shock; in d. to a one-time depreciation shock; in e. to an exports shock and in figure f. to an exports shock.Cambodia: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2009–32 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
Cambodia: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2009–32 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Actual | Historical Average 2/ | Standard Deviation 2/ | Projections | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2012-17 Average | 2022 | 2032 | 2018-22 Average | |||||||
| External debt (nominal) 1/ | 28.4 | 28.7 | 29.7 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 29.9 | 29.2 | 28.2 | 27.2 | 24.5 | 18.4 | ||||||||
| Of which: Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) | 28.4 | 28.7 | 29.7 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 29.9 | 29.2 | 28.2 | 27.2 | 24.5 | 18.4 | ||||||||
| Change in external debt | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −1.0 | −1.0 | −0.5 | −0.8 | ||||||||
| Identified net debt-creating flows | −0.6 | −5.0 | −7.1 | −2.1 | −2.1 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −3.0 | −3.5 | −2.5 | −3.4 | ||||||||
| Noninterest current account deficit | 4.3 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 5.6 | ||||
| Deficit in balance of goods and services | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.9 | ||||||||
| Exports | 43.4 | 49.3 | 57.7 | 58.9 | 58.9 | 59.1 | 59.6 | 60.0 | 60.2 | 61.7 | 65.9 | ||||||||
| Imports | 51.8 | 57.2 | 66.6 | 70.0 | 68.9 | 66.6 | 66.2 | 65.9 | 65.8 | 67.4 | 69.8 | ||||||||
| Net current transfers (negative = inflow) | −8.5 | −8.6 | −6.3 | −9.1 | 1.4 | −5.6 | −4.9 | −4.5 | −4.1 | −3.8 | −3.5 | −4.4 | −2.6 | −2.2 | −2.5 | ||||
| Of which: Official | −6.7 | −6.8 | −3.8 | −3.3 | −2.9 | −2.5 | −2.1 | −1.8 | −1.5 | −0.6 | −0.2 | ||||||||
| Other current account flows (negative = net inflow) | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | ||||||||
| Net FDI (negative = inflow) | -5.0 | -6.8 | -11.5 | -6.1 | 3.2 | -10.5 | -10.2 | -7.9 | -7.3 | -7.2 | -7.2 | -8.4 | -7.0 | -6.9 | −7.0 | ||||
| Endogenous debt dynamics 3/ | 0.1 | -1.8 | -3.4 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.4 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Contribution from nominal interest rate | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | ||||||||
| Contribution from real GDP growth | 0.0 | −1.6 | −1.8 | −1.7 | −1.8 | −2.0 | −2.0 | −2.0 | −1.9 | −1.7 | −1.3 | ||||||||
| Contribution from price and exchange rate changes | −0.1 | −0.5 | −1.9 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||||||
| Residual (3-4) 4/ | 2.1 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | ||||||||
| Of which: Exceptional financing | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| PV of external debt 5/ | … | … | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 23.7 | 23.0 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 18.9 | 14.4 | ||||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 42.0 | 41.2 | 41.0 | 40.1 | 38.6 | 36.8 | 35.1 | 30.6 | 21.8 | ||||||||
| PV of PPG external debt | … | … | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 23.7 | 23.0 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 18.9 | 14.4 | ||||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 42.0 | 41.2 | 41.0 | 40.1 | 38.6 | 36.8 | 35.1 | 30.6 | 21.8 | ||||||||
| In percent of government revenues | … | … | 185.0 | 176.0 | 169.2 | 159.9 | 150.2 | 139.6 | 129.3 | 107.0 | 75.2 | ||||||||
| Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | ||||||||
| PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | ||||||||
| PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 3.8 | ||||||||
| Total gross financing need (billions of U.S. dollars) | 0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −1.6 | ||||||||
| Noninterest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio | 2.8 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.4 | ||||||||
| Key macroeconomic assumptions | |||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 0.1 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | ||||
| GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms (change in percent) | 0.5 | 1.9 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | ||||
| Effective interest rate (percent) 6/ | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | ||||
| Growth of exports of G&S (U.S. dollar terms, in percent) | −10.0 | 22.8 | 33.8 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 10.8 | ||||
| Growth of imports of G&S (U.S. dollar terms, in percent) | −9.6 | 19.2 | 33.3 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 16.2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | ||||
| Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 28.0 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 29.1 | 29.0 | 28.3 | 29.1 | 25.8 | 24.4 | 25.4 | ||||
| Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP) | 12.0 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.8 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 17.6 | 19.1 | 18.1 | |||||||
| Aid flows (in billions of U.S. dollars) 7/ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | ||||||||
| Of which: Grants | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | ||||||||
| Of which: Concessional loans | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | ||||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 8/ | … | … | … | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | |||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 8/ | … | … | … | 61.8 | 64.0 | 65.3 | 65.1 | 64.3 | 63.9 | 49.8 | 45.0 | 48.9 | |||||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of U.S. dollars) | 10.4 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 14.2 | 15.7 | 17.3 | 19.1 | 21.1 | 23.3 | 37.5 | 98.4 | ||||||||
| Nominal dollar GDP growth | 0.6 | 8.1 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | ||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in billions of U.S. dollars) | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 14.1 | ||||||||||
| (PVt-PVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent) | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | |||||||||
| Gross workers’ remittances (billions of U.S. dollars) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in percent of GDP + remittances) | … | … | 23.6 | 23.8 | 23.7 | 23.2 | 22.6 | 21.6 | 20.7 | 18.5 | 14.4 | ||||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittances) | … | … | 40.3 | 39.7 | 39.7 | 38.7 | 37.4 | 35.6 | 34.0 | 29.6 | 21.8 | ||||||||
| Debt service of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittances) | … | … | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | ||||||||
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
Cambodia: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2009–32 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Actual | Historical Average 2/ | Standard Deviation 2/ | Projections | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2012-17 Average | 2022 | 2032 | 2018-22 Average | |||||||
| External debt (nominal) 1/ | 28.4 | 28.7 | 29.7 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 29.9 | 29.2 | 28.2 | 27.2 | 24.5 | 18.4 | ||||||||
| Of which: Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) | 28.4 | 28.7 | 29.7 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 29.9 | 29.2 | 28.2 | 27.2 | 24.5 | 18.4 | ||||||||
| Change in external debt | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −1.0 | −1.0 | −0.5 | −0.8 | ||||||||
| Identified net debt-creating flows | −0.6 | −5.0 | −7.1 | −2.1 | −2.1 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −3.0 | −3.5 | −2.5 | −3.4 | ||||||||
| Noninterest current account deficit | 4.3 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 5.6 | ||||
| Deficit in balance of goods and services | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.9 | ||||||||
| Exports | 43.4 | 49.3 | 57.7 | 58.9 | 58.9 | 59.1 | 59.6 | 60.0 | 60.2 | 61.7 | 65.9 | ||||||||
| Imports | 51.8 | 57.2 | 66.6 | 70.0 | 68.9 | 66.6 | 66.2 | 65.9 | 65.8 | 67.4 | 69.8 | ||||||||
| Net current transfers (negative = inflow) | −8.5 | −8.6 | −6.3 | −9.1 | 1.4 | −5.6 | −4.9 | −4.5 | −4.1 | −3.8 | −3.5 | −4.4 | −2.6 | −2.2 | −2.5 | ||||
| Of which: Official | −6.7 | −6.8 | −3.8 | −3.3 | −2.9 | −2.5 | −2.1 | −1.8 | −1.5 | −0.6 | −0.2 | ||||||||
| Other current account flows (negative = net inflow) | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | ||||||||
| Net FDI (negative = inflow) | -5.0 | -6.8 | -11.5 | -6.1 | 3.2 | -10.5 | -10.2 | -7.9 | -7.3 | -7.2 | -7.2 | -8.4 | -7.0 | -6.9 | −7.0 | ||||
| Endogenous debt dynamics 3/ | 0.1 | -1.8 | -3.4 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.4 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Contribution from nominal interest rate | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | ||||||||
| Contribution from real GDP growth | 0.0 | −1.6 | −1.8 | −1.7 | −1.8 | −2.0 | −2.0 | −2.0 | −1.9 | −1.7 | −1.3 | ||||||||
| Contribution from price and exchange rate changes | −0.1 | −0.5 | −1.9 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||||||
| Residual (3-4) 4/ | 2.1 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | ||||||||
| Of which: Exceptional financing | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| PV of external debt 5/ | … | … | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 23.7 | 23.0 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 18.9 | 14.4 | ||||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 42.0 | 41.2 | 41.0 | 40.1 | 38.6 | 36.8 | 35.1 | 30.6 | 21.8 | ||||||||
| PV of PPG external debt | … | … | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 23.7 | 23.0 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 18.9 | 14.4 | ||||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 42.0 | 41.2 | 41.0 | 40.1 | 38.6 | 36.8 | 35.1 | 30.6 | 21.8 | ||||||||
| In percent of government revenues | … | … | 185.0 | 176.0 | 169.2 | 159.9 | 150.2 | 139.6 | 129.3 | 107.0 | 75.2 | ||||||||
| Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | ||||||||
| PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | ||||||||
| PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 3.8 | ||||||||
| Total gross financing need (billions of U.S. dollars) | 0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −1.6 | ||||||||
| Noninterest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio | 2.8 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.4 | ||||||||
| Key macroeconomic assumptions | |||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 0.1 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | ||||
| GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms (change in percent) | 0.5 | 1.9 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | ||||
| Effective interest rate (percent) 6/ | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | ||||
| Growth of exports of G&S (U.S. dollar terms, in percent) | −10.0 | 22.8 | 33.8 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 10.8 | ||||
| Growth of imports of G&S (U.S. dollar terms, in percent) | −9.6 | 19.2 | 33.3 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 16.2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | ||||
| Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 28.0 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 29.1 | 29.0 | 28.3 | 29.1 | 25.8 | 24.4 | 25.4 | ||||
| Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP) | 12.0 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.8 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 17.6 | 19.1 | 18.1 | |||||||
| Aid flows (in billions of U.S. dollars) 7/ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | ||||||||
| Of which: Grants | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | ||||||||
| Of which: Concessional loans | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | ||||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 8/ | … | … | … | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | |||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 8/ | … | … | … | 61.8 | 64.0 | 65.3 | 65.1 | 64.3 | 63.9 | 49.8 | 45.0 | 48.9 | |||||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of U.S. dollars) | 10.4 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 14.2 | 15.7 | 17.3 | 19.1 | 21.1 | 23.3 | 37.5 | 98.4 | ||||||||
| Nominal dollar GDP growth | 0.6 | 8.1 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | ||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in billions of U.S. dollars) | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 14.1 | ||||||||||
| (PVt-PVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent) | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | |||||||||
| Gross workers’ remittances (billions of U.S. dollars) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in percent of GDP + remittances) | … | … | 23.6 | 23.8 | 23.7 | 23.2 | 22.6 | 21.6 | 20.7 | 18.5 | 14.4 | ||||||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittances) | … | … | 40.3 | 39.7 | 39.7 | 38.7 | 37.4 | 35.6 | 34.0 | 29.6 | 21.8 | ||||||||
| Debt service of PPG external debt (in percent of exports + remittances) | … | … | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | ||||||||
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
Cambodia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2012–32
(In percent)
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), noninterest current account in percent of GDP, and nondebt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Cambodia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2012–32
(In percent)
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2022 | 2032 | |
| PV of debt-to GDP ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 24 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 14 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2012–32 1/ | 24 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 3 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2012–32 /2 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 22 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 15 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 3/ | 24 | 28 | 35 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 25 | 16 |
| B3. U.S. dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 15 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 4/ | 24 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 21 | 15 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 24 | 27 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 22 | 15 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2013 5/ | 24 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 20 |
| PV of debt-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 41 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 31 | 22 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2012–32 1/ | 41 | 37 | 33 | 29 | 26 | 24 | 13 | 5 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2012–32 /2 | 41 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 40 | 33 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 41 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 31 | 22 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 3/ | 41 | 53 | 73 | 69 | 66 | 62 | 50 | 30 |
| B3. U.S. dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 41 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 31 | 22 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 4/ | 41 | 47 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 34 | 23 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 41 | 47 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 44 | 37 | 24 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2013 5/ | 41 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 31 | 22 |
| PV of debt-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 176 | 169 | 160 | 150 | 140 | 129 | 107 | 75 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2012–32 1/ | 176 | 155 | 133 | 113 | 98 | 87 | 45 | 17 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2012–32 /2 | 176 | 176 | 172 | 166 | 159 | 151 | 139 | 112 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 176 | 173 | 168 | 158 | 146 | 136 | 112 | 79 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 3/ | 176 | 197 | 240 | 222 | 204 | 187 | 142 | 84 |
| B3. U.S. dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 176 | 173 | 168 | 158 | 147 | 136 | 112 | 79 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 4/ | 176 | 192 | 189 | 177 | 164 | 151 | 120 | 78 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 176 | 192 | 200 | 186 | 172 | 158 | 125 | 81 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2013 5/ | 176 | 238 | 225 | 211 | 197 | 182 | 151 | 106 |
| Debt service-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2012–32 1/ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2012–32 /2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 3/ | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| B3. U.S. dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 4/ | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2013 5/ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2012–32 1/ | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2012–32 /2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 3/ | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| B3. U.S. dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 4/ | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2013 5/ | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| Memorandum item: | ||||||||
| Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/ | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), noninterest current account in percent of GDP, and nondebt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Cambodia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2012–32
(In percent)
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2022 | 2032 | |
| PV of debt-to GDP ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 24 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 14 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2012–32 1/ | 24 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 3 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2012–32 /2 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 22 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 15 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 3/ | 24 | 28 | 35 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 25 | 16 |
| B3. U.S. dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 15 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 4/ | 24 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 21 | 15 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 24 | 27 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 22 | 15 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2013 5/ | 24 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 20 |
| PV of debt-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 41 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 31 | 22 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2012–32 1/ | 41 | 37 | 33 | 29 | 26 | 24 | 13 | 5 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2012–32 /2 | 41 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 40 | 33 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 41 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 31 | 22 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 3/ | 41 | 53 | 73 | 69 | 66 | 62 | 50 | 30 |
| B3. U.S. dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 41 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 31 | 22 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 4/ | 41 | 47 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 34 | 23 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 41 | 47 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 44 | 37 | 24 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2013 5/ | 41 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 31 | 22 |
| PV of debt-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 176 | 169 | 160 | 150 | 140 | 129 | 107 | 75 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2012–32 1/ | 176 | 155 | 133 | 113 | 98 | 87 | 45 | 17 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2012–32 /2 | 176 | 176 | 172 | 166 | 159 | 151 | 139 | 112 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 176 | 173 | 168 | 158 | 146 | 136 | 112 | 79 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 3/ | 176 | 197 | 240 | 222 | 204 | 187 | 142 | 84 |
| B3. U.S. dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 176 | 173 | 168 | 158 | 147 | 136 | 112 | 79 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 4/ | 176 | 192 | 189 | 177 | 164 | 151 | 120 | 78 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 176 | 192 | 200 | 186 | 172 | 158 | 125 | 81 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2013 5/ | 176 | 238 | 225 | 211 | 197 | 182 | 151 | 106 |
| Debt service-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2012–32 1/ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2012–32 /2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 3/ | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| B3. U.S. dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 4/ | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2013 5/ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2012–32 1/ | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2012–32 /2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 3/ | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| B3. U.S. dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2013–14 4/ | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2013 5/ | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| Memorandum item: | ||||||||
| Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/ | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), noninterest current account in percent of GDP, and nondebt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
10. The public DSA closely tracts the external debt sustainability given the small amount of domestic public debt (Figure 2 and Tables 2a and 2b). The PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio and the public debt service-to-revenue ratio would decline gradually over the long term, and the debt service-to-revenue ratio would remain low in most scenarios for the entire projection period. Consistent with the medium-term fiscal objective of building government fiscal buffers, Cambodia is not expected to develop a market for domestic government debt securities in the foreseeable future.
Cambodia: Indicators of Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2012–32 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 002; 10.5089/9781475580822.002.A003
Sources: Cambodian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in all figures, this corresponds to a permanent growth shock in 2022.2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Cambodia: Indicators of Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2012–32 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 002; 10.5089/9781475580822.002.A003
Sources: Cambodian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in all figures, this corresponds to a permanent growth shock in 2022.2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.Cambodia: Indicators of Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2012–32 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 002; 10.5089/9781475580822.002.A003
Sources: Cambodian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in all figures, this corresponds to a permanent growth shock in 2022.2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.Cambodia: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2009–32
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
The public sector debt represents general government gross debt.
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Cambodia: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2009–32
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Actual | Average 1/ | Standard Deviation 1/ | Estimate | Projections | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2012-17 Average | 2022 | 2032 | 2018-32 Average | |||||||
| Public sector debt 2/ | 29.1 | 29.3 | 30.3 | 30.6 | 30.7 | 30.3 | 29.6 | 28.5 | 27.5 | 24.6 | 18.4 | ||||||||
| Of which: Foreign-currency denominated | 28.4 | 28.7 | 29.7 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 29.9 | 29.2 | 28.2 | 27.2 | 24.5 | 18.4 | ||||||||
| Change in public sector debt | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −1.0 | −1.1 | −0.5 | −0.8 | ||||||||
| Identified debt-creating flows | 4.0 | −0.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −1.4 | −1.9 | −2.2 | −1.5 | −1.4 | ||||||||
| Primary deficit | 3.9 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | ||||
| Revenue and grants | 16.3 | 18.0 | 16.3 | 16.8 | 17.2 | 17.7 | 18.0 | 18.2 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 19.7 | ||||||||
| Of which: Grants | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | ||||||||
| Primary (noninterest) expenditure | 20.1 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 19.7 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 19.8 | ||||||||
| Automatic debt dynamics | 0.1 | −2.9 | −2.6 | −2.5 | −2.4 | −2.5 | −2.5 | −2.4 | −2.4 | −2.0 | −1.5 | ||||||||
| Contribution from interest rate/growth differential | 0.3 | −1.7 | −2.0 | −1.9 | −2.0 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −1.9 | −1.4 | ||||||||
| Of which: Contribution from average real interest rate | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ||||||||
| Of which: Contribution from real GDP growth | 0.0 | −1.7 | −1.9 | −1.8 | −1.9 | −2.1 | −2.1 | −2.0 | −2.0 | −1.7 | −1.3 | ||||||||
| Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation | −0.2 | −1.2 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.2 | … | … | ||||||||
| Other identified debt-creating flows | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Privatization receipts (negative) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Debt relief (HIPC and other) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Other (specify, e.g., bank recapitalization) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Residual, including asset changes | −2.7 | 0.8 | −0.4 | −0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | ||||||||
| Other Sustainability Indicators | |||||||||||||||||||
| PV of public sector debt | … | … | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.6 | 24.1 | 23.4 | 22.4 | 21.5 | 19.1 | 14.5 | ||||||||
| Of which: Foreign-currency denominated | … | … | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 23.7 | 23.0 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 18.9 | 14.4 | ||||||||
| Of which: External | … | … | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 23.7 | 23.0 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 18.9 | 14.4 | ||||||||
| PV of contingent liabilities (not included in public sector debt) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||||||
| Gross financing need 3/ | 5.1 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | ||||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) | … | … | 152.0 | 147.9 | 143.0 | 136.0 | 130.2 | 123.3 | 115.5 | 101.7 | 73.5 | ||||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | … | … | 189.3 | 179.7 | 172.4 | 162.7 | 152.7 | 141.8 | 131.2 | 108.1 | 75.5 | ||||||||
| Of which: External 4/ | … | … | 185.0 | 176.0 | 169.2 | 159.9 | 150.2 | 139.6 | 129.3 | 107.0 | 75.2 | ||||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) 5/ | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 3.7 | ||||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 5/ | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 3.8 | ||||||||
| Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions | |||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 0.1 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | ||||
| Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | ||||
| Average real interest rate on domestic debt (in percent) | −2.1 | −2.4 | −3.1 | −4.8 | 2.7 | −3.3 | −3.0 | −2.9 | −2.8 | −2.8 | −2.794 | −2.9 | −2.404 | −2.516 | −2.4 | ||||
| Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation) | −0.6 | −4.5 | −2.5 | −2.6 | 2.8 | −2.1 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
| Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1136 | 3.2 | 2.7013 | 2.81919 | 2.7 | ||||
| Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0757 | 0.1 | 0.0749 | 0.08218 | 0.1 | ||||
| Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 28.0 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 29.1 | 29.0 | 28.287 | 29.1 | 25.772 | 24.4042 | … | ||||
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
The public sector debt represents general government gross debt.
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Cambodia: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2009–32
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Actual | Average 1/ | Standard Deviation 1/ | Estimate | Projections | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2012-17 Average | 2022 | 2032 | 2018-32 Average | |||||||
| Public sector debt 2/ | 29.1 | 29.3 | 30.3 | 30.6 | 30.7 | 30.3 | 29.6 | 28.5 | 27.5 | 24.6 | 18.4 | ||||||||
| Of which: Foreign-currency denominated | 28.4 | 28.7 | 29.7 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 29.9 | 29.2 | 28.2 | 27.2 | 24.5 | 18.4 | ||||||||
| Change in public sector debt | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −1.0 | −1.1 | −0.5 | −0.8 | ||||||||
| Identified debt-creating flows | 4.0 | −0.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −1.4 | −1.9 | −2.2 | −1.5 | −1.4 | ||||||||
| Primary deficit | 3.9 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | ||||
| Revenue and grants | 16.3 | 18.0 | 16.3 | 16.8 | 17.2 | 17.7 | 18.0 | 18.2 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 19.7 | ||||||||
| Of which: Grants | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | ||||||||
| Primary (noninterest) expenditure | 20.1 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 19.7 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 19.8 | ||||||||
| Automatic debt dynamics | 0.1 | −2.9 | −2.6 | −2.5 | −2.4 | −2.5 | −2.5 | −2.4 | −2.4 | −2.0 | −1.5 | ||||||||
| Contribution from interest rate/growth differential | 0.3 | −1.7 | −2.0 | −1.9 | −2.0 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −1.9 | −1.4 | ||||||||
| Of which: Contribution from average real interest rate | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ||||||||
| Of which: Contribution from real GDP growth | 0.0 | −1.7 | −1.9 | −1.8 | −1.9 | −2.1 | −2.1 | −2.0 | −2.0 | −1.7 | −1.3 | ||||||||
| Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation | −0.2 | −1.2 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.2 | … | … | ||||||||
| Other identified debt-creating flows | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Privatization receipts (negative) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Debt relief (HIPC and other) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Other (specify, e.g., bank recapitalization) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Residual, including asset changes | −2.7 | 0.8 | −0.4 | −0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | ||||||||
| Other Sustainability Indicators | |||||||||||||||||||
| PV of public sector debt | … | … | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.6 | 24.1 | 23.4 | 22.4 | 21.5 | 19.1 | 14.5 | ||||||||
| Of which: Foreign-currency denominated | … | … | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 23.7 | 23.0 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 18.9 | 14.4 | ||||||||
| Of which: External | … | … | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 23.7 | 23.0 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 18.9 | 14.4 | ||||||||
| PV of contingent liabilities (not included in public sector debt) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||||||
| Gross financing need 3/ | 5.1 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | ||||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) | … | … | 152.0 | 147.9 | 143.0 | 136.0 | 130.2 | 123.3 | 115.5 | 101.7 | 73.5 | ||||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | … | … | 189.3 | 179.7 | 172.4 | 162.7 | 152.7 | 141.8 | 131.2 | 108.1 | 75.5 | ||||||||
| Of which: External 4/ | … | … | 185.0 | 176.0 | 169.2 | 159.9 | 150.2 | 139.6 | 129.3 | 107.0 | 75.2 | ||||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) 5/ | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 3.7 | ||||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 5/ | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 3.8 | ||||||||
| Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions | |||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 0.1 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | ||||
| Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | ||||
| Average real interest rate on domestic debt (in percent) | −2.1 | −2.4 | −3.1 | −4.8 | 2.7 | −3.3 | −3.0 | −2.9 | −2.8 | −2.8 | −2.794 | −2.9 | −2.404 | −2.516 | −2.4 | ||||
| Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation) | −0.6 | −4.5 | −2.5 | −2.6 | 2.8 | −2.1 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
| Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1136 | 3.2 | 2.7013 | 2.81919 | 2.7 | ||||
| Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0757 | 0.1 | 0.0749 | 0.08218 | 0.1 | ||||
| Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 28.0 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 29.1 | 29.0 | 28.287 | 29.1 | 25.772 | 24.4042 | … | ||||
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
The public sector debt represents general government gross debt.
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Cambodia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2012–32
(In percent)
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Cambodia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2012–32
(In percent)
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2022 | 2032 | |
| PV of debt-to-GDP ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 25 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 14 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 25 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 25 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2012 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 32 | 35 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 32 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2013–14 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 22 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2013–14 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 21 | 15 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 25 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 17 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2013 | 25 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 27 | 22 | 16 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2013 | 25 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 23 | 16 |
| PV of debt-to-revenue ratio2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 148 | 143 | 136 | 130 | 123 | 115 | 102 | 74 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 148 | 140 | 133 | 131 | 129 | 127 | 134 | 129 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2012 | 148 | 146 | 144 | 145 | 147 | 148 | 169 | 179 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 148 | 144 | 139 | 135 | 131 | 126 | 133 | 164 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2013–14 | 148 | 147 | 146 | 143 | 139 | 133 | 130 | 114 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2013–14 | 148 | 150 | 150 | 143 | 135 | 127 | 109 | 77 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 148 | 146 | 144 | 139 | 132 | 125 | 113 | 87 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2013 | 148 | 198 | 183 | 171 | 159 | 146 | 119 | 79 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2013 | 148 | 187 | 175 | 166 | 156 | 146 | 123 | 82 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2012 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2013–14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2013–14 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2013 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2013 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Cambodia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2012–32
(In percent)
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2022 | 2032 | |
| PV of debt-to-GDP ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 25 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 14 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 25 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 25 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2012 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 32 | 35 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 32 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2013–14 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 22 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2013–14 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 21 | 15 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 25 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 17 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2013 | 25 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 27 | 22 | 16 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2013 | 25 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 23 | 16 |
| PV of debt-to-revenue ratio2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 148 | 143 | 136 | 130 | 123 | 115 | 102 | 74 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 148 | 140 | 133 | 131 | 129 | 127 | 134 | 129 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2012 | 148 | 146 | 144 | 145 | 147 | 148 | 169 | 179 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 148 | 144 | 139 | 135 | 131 | 126 | 133 | 164 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2013–14 | 148 | 147 | 146 | 143 | 139 | 133 | 130 | 114 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2013–14 | 148 | 150 | 150 | 143 | 135 | 127 | 109 | 77 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 148 | 146 | 144 | 139 | 132 | 125 | 113 | 87 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2013 | 148 | 198 | 183 | 171 | 159 | 146 | 119 | 79 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2013 | 148 | 187 | 175 | 166 | 156 | 146 | 123 | 82 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2012 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2013–14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2013–14 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2013 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2013 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
11. Public debt sustainability continues to be vulnerable to a lack of fiscal consolidation and a permanent growth shock. If the primary balance remains unchanged at the 2012 level, the PV of public debt-to-GDP and debt-to-revenue ratios would continue to increase, reaching about 35 percent and 180 percent, respectively, in the long run. Under a permanent growth shock, if real GDP growth is one standard deviation lower than the baseline, the ratios of public debt to GDP and revenue would also continue to increase.
12. Under the alternative scenario of limited reform progress, Cambodia could lose its low debt distress rating (Figures 3 and 4 and Tables 3a and 3b). The PV of debt in terms of GDP, revenue, and exports would increase slightly over the next decade as a result of greater disbursement of debt to provide adequate financing for development needs. The standard tests reveal that the PV of debt-to-revenue and debt-to-GDP ratios would breach the relevant thresholds as a result of exchange rate shocks. Apart from reducing Cambodia’s ability to absorb shocks, the scenario underscores the importance of mobilizing domestic revenue as planned. While the breach would seem minimal, it should be noted that tougher financing conditions with a lower grant element, albeit difficult to quantify ex ante, would likely ensue, which would erode debt sustainability further. Moreover, the alternative scenario does not assume any contingent liability materializing. However, the return to sustainable debt levels would become more difficult if the following contingent liabilities, which tend to correlate with shocks under the bound tests, were triggered:
Cambodia: Indicators of External Debt, Alternative Scenario of Limited Reform Progress, 2012–32 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 002; 10.5089/9781475580822.002.A003
Sources: Cambodian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2022. In figure b. it corresponds to a onetime depreciation shock; in c. to an exports shock; in d. to a one-time depreciation shock; in e. to an exports shock and in figure f. to a terms-of-trade shock.
Cambodia: Indicators of External Debt, Alternative Scenario of Limited Reform Progress, 2012–32 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 002; 10.5089/9781475580822.002.A003
Sources: Cambodian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2022. In figure b. it corresponds to a onetime depreciation shock; in c. to an exports shock; in d. to a one-time depreciation shock; in e. to an exports shock and in figure f. to a terms-of-trade shock.Cambodia: Indicators of External Debt, Alternative Scenario of Limited Reform Progress, 2012–32 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 002; 10.5089/9781475580822.002.A003
Sources: Cambodian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2022. In figure b. it corresponds to a onetime depreciation shock; in c. to an exports shock; in d. to a one-time depreciation shock; in e. to an exports shock and in figure f. to a terms-of-trade shock.
Cambodia: Indicators of Public Debt, Alternative Scenario of Limited Reform Progress, 2012–32 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 002; 10.5089/9781475580822.002.A003
Sources: Cambodian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in all figures, this corresponds to a permanent growth shock in 2022.2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Cambodia: Indicators of Public Debt, Alternative Scenario of Limited Reform Progress, 2012–32 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 002; 10.5089/9781475580822.002.A003
Sources: Cambodian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in all figures, this corresponds to a permanent growth shock in 2022.2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.Cambodia: Indicators of Public Debt, Alternative Scenario of Limited Reform Progress, 2012–32 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2013, 002; 10.5089/9781475580822.002.A003
Sources: Cambodian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in all figures, this corresponds to a permanent growth shock in 2022.2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.Cambodia: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Alternative Scenario of Limited Reform Progress, 2009–32 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).