Mongolia: Staff Report for The 2012 Article IV Consultation and Third Post-Program Monitoring—Informational Annex
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Mongolia has made impressive progress in developing its economy over the past ten years. Medium-term prospects are promising as mining output is projected to expand by more than 20 percent per annum, on average, over the next five years. However, the prospects for sustained, rapid and inclusive non-mineral growth depend on the implementation of the stability-oriented fiscal framework that has been adopted in the aftermath of the 2008/09 balance of payments (BOP) crisis. This framework was designed to dampen volatility, mitigate risks to economic and financial stability, and strengthen long-term natural resource management. The expansionary fiscal policy of the past year is causing double-digit inflation and BOP pressures. Public spending needs to be reined in, in order not to risk undermining stability and growth prospects, and in view of Mongolia’s vulnerability to a downturn in commodities exports.

Abstract

Mongolia has made impressive progress in developing its economy over the past ten years. Medium-term prospects are promising as mining output is projected to expand by more than 20 percent per annum, on average, over the next five years. However, the prospects for sustained, rapid and inclusive non-mineral growth depend on the implementation of the stability-oriented fiscal framework that has been adopted in the aftermath of the 2008/09 balance of payments (BOP) crisis. This framework was designed to dampen volatility, mitigate risks to economic and financial stability, and strengthen long-term natural resource management. The expansionary fiscal policy of the past year is causing double-digit inflation and BOP pressures. Public spending needs to be reined in, in order not to risk undermining stability and growth prospects, and in view of Mongolia’s vulnerability to a downturn in commodities exports.

Fund Relations

(As of September 30, 2012)

Membership Status: Joined February 14, 1991; Article VIII

General Resources Account

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SDR Department

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans

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Financial Arrangements (In SDR Million)

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Projected Obligations to Fund 2

(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs)

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Safeguards Arrangements

An update safeguards assessment of the Bank of Mongolia (BOM) finalized in June, 2009 found that the BOM has continued to improve its safeguards framework since the previous assessment. The BOM’s financial reporting and audit practices generally comply with international standards. The assessment made recommendations to (i) strengthen certain aspects of the BOM’s oversight mechanism, (ii) remove external audit qualifications caused by lack of access to central bank’s vaults, and (iii) improve the timeliness of audit completion and publication of the bank’s financial statements. The authorities have since confirmed that the auditors were granted access to its vaults at end-2009 to end-2011, and the timing of audit completion has improved.

Exchange Arrangement

On March 24, 2009, the BOM instituted a foreign exchange auction allowing the determination of the exchange rate mainly by market forces. The de facto and de jure exchange rate arrangements are currently both classified as floating.

Mongolia accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4 on February 1, 1996. Mongolia maintains two multiple currency practices (MCPs) subject to Fund jurisdiction. First, the modalities of the multi-price auction system give rise to an MCP since there is no mechanism in place that ensures that exchange rates of accepted bids at the multi-price auction do not deviate by more than 2 percent. The Executive Board approved the multi-price auction MCP until June 22, 2010 (Decision No. 14365 of June 23, 2009), and its further extension until March 15, 2012 or the next Article IV consultation whichever is earlier (Decision No. 14669 of June 23, 2010 and Decision No. 14365 of March 16, 2011). The MCP, however, could not be resolved by March 15, 2012, and would be continued as long as the multiple price foreign exchange auction mechanism remains in place. Therefore the MCP is unapproved, and since the criteria for approval of this MCP are not in place, staff does not recommend Executive Board approval of said measure. In addition, Mongolia has an official exchange rate (reference rate) that is mandatorily used for government transactions (as opposed to the commercial market rate). Therefore, by way of official action, the authorities have created a market segmentation. While Order #699 of the BOM issued on December 3, 2010, sets forth that the reference rate is determined based on the weighted average of market rates used from 4 PM of the previous day to 4 PM of the current day, staff is of the view that this Order does not eliminate the market segmentation and the multiplicity of effective rates arising from it. Accordingly, in the absence of a mechanism to ensure that the commercial rates and the reference rate do not deviate by more than 2 percent, the way the reference rate is used in government transaction gives rise to an MCP subject to Fund approval. Since the criteria for approval of this MCP are not in place, it remains unapproved. Mongolia imposes exchange restrictions for security reasons in accordance with United Nations Security Council Resolution No. 92/757 concerning certain transactions with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) that have been notified to the Fund under Decision 144 (11/4/94).

Article IV Consultation

The 2011 Article IV consultation (IMF Country Report No. 11/76) was concluded by the Executive Board on March 16, 2011. Mongolia is on a 12–month cycle.

ROSC Assessments

The following ROSC assessments have been undertaken: Data Dissemination (May 2001), Fiscal Transparency Module (November 2001), Fiscal update (May 2005), Data Dissemination (April 2008), Monetary and Fiscal Policy Transparency (September 2008), Banking Supervision (September 2008).

Recent Financial Arrangements

An 18-month Stand-by Arrangement in an amount of equivalent to SDR 153.3 million (300 percent of quota) was approved on April 1, 2009. The Executive Board successfully completed the final review on September 8, 2010.

FSAP Participation

Mongolia participates in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The first, second and third FSAP missions took place in May 2007, September 2007 and November 2010, respectively. The latest report (IMF Country Report No. 11/107) was published in May 2011.

Technical Assistance Missions since 2011

  • AML/CFT (LEG), October 2012

  • Taxation (LEG), April–May 2012

  • Mining/Petroleum Taxation (FAD), March–April 2012

  • National Accounts Statistics (STA), March, April 2012

  • Tax administration (FAD), February–March, May-June, August–Sept. 2012

  • Macroprudential Policy Implementation (MCM), January 2012

  • Strengthening Debt and Financial Asset Management (FAD), November 2011

  • Fiscal Regimes (TTF MNRW) (FAD), October–November 2011

  • Tax administration (FAD), August- September, November 2011

  • Monetary and Financial Statistics (STA), July–August 2011

  • Taxation (LEG), June 2011

  • Monetary policy (MCM), April 2011

  • IBL (FAD), January, March, June, 2011

  • Strengthening LTO operations (FAD), February–April 2011

Resident Advisors

  • Budget Planning (FAD), June 2009–June 2012

Resident Representative

Since September 2011, the Fund no longer has a resident representative in Mongolia. The local office is being managed from the Regional Office for Asia and Pacific in Tokyo, Japan.

World Bank-IMF Collaboration

1. The Bank and the Fund country teams maintain a close working relationship. The teams, led by Ms. Chorching Goh (Lead Economist, EASPR) and Mr. Gerard Almekinders (Mission Chief) collaborate on a range of macroeconomic and structural issues.

2. Cooperation and coordination is exemplary. It pertains to the following:

  • Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) and post-program monitoring. The World Bank participated in virtually all the negotiating missions’ meetings with the authorities. This facilitated the discussions, especially as regards policies in areas of mutual interest such as bank restructuring, social welfare reform, and fiscal policy. The teams have also jointly participated in media events. After the completion of the SBA, Bank staff has continued to actively participate in post-program monitoring missions.

  • Development Policy Credits (DPC) and Country Partnership Strategy (CPS). In turn, Fund staff participated in the design and review of the Bank’s DPCs and was kept informed about the development of the Bank’s new CPS for FY13-17.

  • Banking system issues. Both country teams have been active in this area, including fielding numerous technical assistance missions. The teams coordinate closely to provide the authorities with consistent advice while avoiding unnecessary duplication of efforts. The two teams also continue to educate the public and parliamentarians on banking sector issues to build support for reforms.

  • Structural fiscal reforms. Fund staff and the World Bank team have worked together successfully to provide technical assistance in expenditure management, the recently adopted fiscal responsibility law, the integrated budget law, the social welfare law, and mineral sector taxation.

3. Based on the intensive collaboration, the Bank and the Fund share a common view about Mongolia’s macroeconomic and structural reform priorities. These include:

  • Promoting long-term growth. Managing the mineral wealth to ensure strong, sustainable, and equitable growth with low inflation. This includes the importance of avoiding the “resource curse” and minimizing “Dutch disease” effects.

  • Macro-economic stability. This includes ensuring that the boom-bust policies of the past are not repeated. The recently adopted fiscal responsibility law is a key step, and it is critical that it be strictly adhered to. At the same time, fiscal policy also has to be mindful of the macroeconomic policy mix and not over-burden monetary policy.

  • Monetary policy. The central bank should continue to gear monetary policy to controlling inflation. The flexible exchange rate regime is working well and should be maintained. Monetary and exchange rate policy could be strengthened by giving the central bank more independence.

  • Protecting the poor. The imminent introduction of a targeted poverty benefit under the recently adopted Social Welfare Law represents a big step forward in strengthening the social safety net and increasing fiscal flexibility.

  • Strengthening the banking system. Key steps include continued improvement in bank regulation and supervision, and eventual introduction of deposit insurance to replace the blanket guarantee.

4. The teams agreed to continue the close cooperation going forward. Table 1 details the specific activities planned by the two country teams over the period September 2012 – August 2013 along with their expected deliveries. It was also agreed that further details on collaboration, as necessary, would be agreed at the technical level as work progresses.

Table 1.

Mongolia: Bank and Fund Planned Activities in Macro-Critical Structural Reform Areas, September 2012–August 2013

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Relations With The Asian Development Bank 1

Mongolia became a member of the Asian Development Bank (AsDB) in February 1991. AsDB has been Mongolia’s largest source of official development assistance, playing a key role in the country’s transformation to a market based economy. Going forward, AsDB’s assistance will be scaled-up to meet urgent and large-scale financing needs, particularly in infrastructure, and will support innovative financing mechanisms including public-private partnerships.

Between 1991 and 2011, Mongolia received loans from AsDB for 46 projects totaling $825.17 million in agriculture and natural resources, education, energy, financial, health and social protection, industry and trade, public sector management, transport, information and communication technology, water, other municipal infrastructure and services sectors. In addition, 12 Asian Development Fund (ADF) grant projects totaling $172.2 million were approved from 2007, when Mongolia became eligible for ADF grant financing. Including other trust fund sources, Mongolia received 33 grants amounting to $210.7 million. Current assistance to Mongolia is guided by the Country Operations Business Plan for 2012-14.

With enhanced creditworthiness and significant progress in economic development, Mongolia was reclassified as a Group B country in August 2011, making it eligible for funding from AsDB’s ordinary capital resources, while maintaining access to concessional financing from the ADF.

The Mongolia Country Partnership Strategy 2012-16 was approved by AsDB management in March 2012. During this period, assistance will focus on transport, energy, and water; education and health services; and regional economic cooperation.

Subject to regional ADF allocation and country performance-based allocation, a total indicative sovereign lending program of $138.0 million for 2013–2014 is envisaged, of which $75.0 million would be provided from ADF country allocation, $63.0 million provided from OCR financing, and some $30.0 million is envisaged to be financed through AsDB’s ADF regional program of assistance. An average of $4.7 million in TA resources is to be provided annually. Private sector operations are expected to play a growing financial and catalytic role as progress is made in fostering PPPs. Larger interventions, especially in power, heating, and other municipal infrastructure, will improve service delivery and create opportunities for private sector participation

AsDB’s operations will concentrate on the following sectors in next 5 years:

Transport. Under the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation program, Mongolia is harmonizing cross-border transport procedures, and developing key economic corridors, including the Western Regional Road Corridor, which will link the relatively isolated western region to its neighboring economies. AsDB is also developing a public transport system for Ulaanbaatar, and will construct logistics infrastructure and systems—initially in Zamyn Uud at the People’s Republic of China border and thereafter in Ulaanbaatar.

Energy. Insufficient and unreliable power and heating are becoming bottlenecks to growth and threaten livelihoods. AsDB is improving energy efficiency and capacity in Ulaanbaatar, through the country’s first major public–private partnership in constructing a new energy efficient combined heating and power plant in Ulaanbaatar with proper emission reduction equipment. AsDB has been piloting the application of renewable energies, and is supporting Mongolia to access multilateral climate change funds.

Urban Development. AsDB is helping to meet basic infrastructure needs in small towns, including those playing a central role in the mineral-rich Gobi area, where communities are coping with a large population influx in response to new mining operations. At the same time, AsDB is preparing a program to develop services and economic opportunities in poor areas of Ulaanbaatar.

Education. Since the mid-1990s AsDB has supported the Government of Mongolia in strengthening basic and secondary education, which succeeded in maintaining Mongolia’s high levels of access and education achievements. To meet pressing labor market demands, AsDB is also supporting reform of higher education and will help modernize vocational training.

Health. AsDB has made major investments to improve primary health services and health insurance, and is supporting policy reforms and investments in the hospital sector and in drug safety.

Statistical Issues

(As of August 31, 2012)

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Mongolia—Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance As of August 31, 2012

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Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Both market-based and officially determined, including discount rates, money market rates, and rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A), Irregular (I), Not Available (NA).

Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC or the Substantive Update (published in April 2008, and based on the findings of the mission that took place during September 1–28) for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO); largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).

Same as footnote 7, except referring to international standards concerning (respectively) source data, assessment of source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs, and revision studies.

Millennium Development Goals

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Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database.

Main Websites of Data

National Statistics Office (www.nso.mn)

  • National Accounts

  • Consumer Price Inflation

  • Agricultural and Industrial Production

  • Petroleum Imports

  • Electricity Production and Consumption

  • Coal Production

  • Retail Prices

  • Employment

  • Exports and Imports

Bank of Mongolia (www.mongolbank.mn)

  • Monetary Survey

  • Consolidated Balance Sheet of Commercial Banks

  • Distribution of Bank Credit to the Nongovernment Sector

  • Net Credit to Government

  • Interest Rates

  • Balance of Payments

  • Services and Income Accounts

  • Official Reserves of the Bank of Mongolia

  • Selected Indicators of Commercial Bank Foreign Exchange Operations

  • Nominal and Real Exchange Rates

  • Securities Market Data

  • Government Budget Accounts

Ministry of Finance (www.mof.gov.mn)

  • Government Budgetary Operations

Ministry of Economic Development (www.med.gov.mn))

  • Long- and medium-term development strategy

  • Economic and social policies

  • Investment policy coordination

  • Development Bank of Mongolia

Financial Regulatory Commission (www.frc.mn)

  • FRC decisions

  • Total assets of regulated entities (insurance companies, securities and broker firms, non-bank financial institutions, savings and credit unions)

  • Consolidated income statements of regulated entities (insurance companies, securities and broker firms, non-bank financial institutions, savings and credit unions)

1

Formerly PRGF.

2

When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.

1

Data provided by the Asian Development Bank staff.

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