Bayoumi, Tamim and Trung Bui, “Unforeseen Events Wait Lurking: Estimating Policy Spillovers from U.S. to Foreign Asset Prices,” IMF Working Paper 11/183.
Bayoumi, Tamim and Andrew Swiston, “Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries,” IMF Working Paper 07/182, July 2007.
Benelli, Roberto and Srideep Ganguly, “Financial Linkages Between United States and Latin America—Evidence from Daily Data, IMF Working Paper 07/262, November 2007.
Chiquiar, Daniel and Manuel Ramos-Francia, “A Note on Mexico and U.S. Manufacturing Industries’ Long-term Relationship,” Banco de Mexico Working Paper 2008–08.
International Monetary Fund, 2011, “The United States Spillover Report—2011 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report 11/203, July 2011.
International Monetary Fund, 2012, “Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere: Rebuilding Strengthen and Flexibility, April 2012.
International Monetary Fund. 2012, “Global Financial Stability Report: Restoring Confidence and Progressing on Reforms,” October 2012.
Kose, M.A., G.M. Meredith, and C.M. Towe, “How has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy: Review and Evidence,” IMF Working Paper 04/59, April 2004.
Lane, P.R. and G.M. Milesi-Ferretti, “External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970–2004,” IMF Working Paper 06/69, March 2006.
Miles, William and Chu-Ping C. Vijverberg, “Mexico’s Business Cycles and Synchronization with the USA in the Post-NAFTA Years,” Review of Development Economics, 15(4), 638–650, 2011.
Milesi-Ferretti, G.M., F. Strobbe, and N. Tamirisa, “Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances: A View on the Eve of the Financial Crisis, IMF Working Paper 10/257.
Sosa, Sebastian, “External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important are U.S. Factors?” IMF Working Paper 08/100, April 2008.
Prepared by Gilda Fernandez.
Trade to other regions has grown quickly in recent years, but given the gradual process of diversification, trade exposure to the U.S. is still high.
See “What Explains Mexico’s Recovery of U.S. Market Share?,” Chapter 2 of the Selected Issues Paper.
The fact that Mexico has not had home-grown crises since 1994 has probably contributed to the higher correlation with the U.S. business cycle.
See, inter alia, “How has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy: Review and Evidence,” M. Ayhan Kose, Guy M. Meredith, and Christopher M. Towe, IMF Working Paper 04/59, April 2004; “External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important are U.S. Factors?” Sebastian Sosa, IMF Working Paper 08/100, April 2008l; “A Note on Mexico and U.S. Manufacturing Industries’ Long-term Relationship,” Daniel Chiquiar and Manuel Ramos-Francia, Banco de Mexico Working Paper 2008–08; and “Mexico’s Business Cycles and Synchronization with the USA in the Post-NAFTA Years,” William Miles and Chu-Ping C. Vijverberg, Review of Development Economics, 15(4), 638–650, 2011.
Announced FDI plans in Mexico through August 2012 amount to about US$6.5 billion, mainly in the automotive industry.
The real world interest rate was estimated as the difference between the LIBOR and U.S. inflation.