Republic of Moldova: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement and Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Requests for Waivers for Non-Observance and Modification of Performance Criteria—Informational Annex

After the 2009 crisis, policies have improved markedly, backed by substantial foreign assistance. Notably, fiscal adjustment has reduced the large budget imbalance, monetary policy has tamed inflation, and structural reforms have spurred strong export expansion. These reforms led to impressive growth in 2010–11, but activity decelerated in 2012, reflecting the slowdown in the EU. The economy is highly exposed to further intensification of the euro area crisis via its dependence on remittances, exports, and capital inflows.

Abstract

After the 2009 crisis, policies have improved markedly, backed by substantial foreign assistance. Notably, fiscal adjustment has reduced the large budget imbalance, monetary policy has tamed inflation, and structural reforms have spurred strong export expansion. These reforms led to impressive growth in 2010–11, but activity decelerated in 2012, reflecting the slowdown in the EU. The economy is highly exposed to further intensification of the euro area crisis via its dependence on remittances, exports, and capital inflows.

Annex I: Moldova: Fund Relations

(As of July 31, 2012)

I. Membership Status: Joined August 12, 1992; Article VIII

II. General Resources Account:

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III. SDR Department:

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IV. Outstanding Purchases and Loans:

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V. Latest Financial Arrangements:

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Formerly PRGF.

VI. Projected Obligations to Fund: (SDR million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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VII. Safeguards Assessments:

Under the Fund's safeguards assessment policy, the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) is subject to an assessment with respect to the ECF/EFF arrangements approved on January 29, 2010. The assessment completed on June 3, 2010 updated the findings of the 2006 safeguards assessment. It concluded that recommendations of the 2006 safeguards assessment have been implemented. The updated safeguards assessment provided a set of recommendations focused on mitigating new risks and further strengthening the NBM safeguards framework.

VIII. Exchange Arrangements:

Moldova has accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3 and 4, of the Fund’s Articles of Agreement. Its exchange system remains free of restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions.

Moldova’s exchange rate regime is classified as “floating”. The NBM intervenes in the domestic foreign exchange interbank market in order to smooth out sharp exchange rate fluctuations of the Moldovan leu against the dollar. At the same time, the NBM interventions are not aimed at changing the trend of the exchange rate determined by the market. The NBM publishes the information on its interventions.

The official exchange rate of the Moldovan leu to the U.S. dollar announced by the NBM is determined as the weighted average of daily noncash market transactions performed on the interbank and intrabank market. The NBM quotes exchange rates of the leu for other currencies on the basis of the leu-U.S. dollar rate and the cross-rate between the U.S. dollar and these currencies.

IX. Article IV Consultations:

The previous Article IV consultation was concluded on July 16, 2010 (Country Report No. 10/234). Timing of the next Article IV consultation will be set in accordance with the decision on consultation cycles approved on July 15, 2002.

X. FSAP Participation:

Moldova received an FSAP mission in May 2004; the FSSA (Country Report No. 05/64) was presented to the Board at the time of the 2004 Article IV discussions. An FSAP update mission visited in October 2007; the FSSA update (Country Report No. 08/274) was presented to the Board with the 2007 Article IV Consultation report.

XI. Resident Representative:

Mr. Tokhir Mirzoev assumed his duties as Resident Representative in December 2009.

XII. Technical Assistance Provided by the Fund, 2009–12:

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Annex II: Moldova: Relations with the World Bank Group

(As of June 18, 2012)

A. The World Bank Group Strategy

1. The Moldova Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for FY09–12 (extended to FY13) was prepared during a time of political and economic uncertainty. The CPS aims at assisting the country in improving competitiveness and laying the foundations for inclusive economic growth. The Bank worked closely with the Government and other development partners in support of two pillars of the National Development Strategy (NDS) 2008–11: (i) enhancing economic competitiveness; and (ii) developing human resources, enhancing employment, and promoting social inclusion. To effectively support these two pillars, the Bank’s strategy included a third pillar and crosscutting priority: (iii) improving governance and addressing corruption, including improved public sector efficiency and effectiveness. The choice of pillars has been guided by the Government’s own development strategy, client perspectives, the lessons learned from the previous CAS, and the Bank understanding of Moldova’s development challenges. These priorities also remain relevant in the context of the recently developed National Development Strategy—Moldova 2020. The CPS envisaged annual commitments of approximately US$45–50 million (depending on IDA’s performance-based allocation system), and the IDA-15 lending envelope of US$161 million, including an additional US$ 20 million received in FY11, which has been fully committed for existing projects.

2. The Bank Group’s program of support for Moldova capitalizes on those areas where the Bank has a comparative advantage for optimal impact and it tries to be strategic in its engagement, not only in terms of where to direct IDA resources but also in terms of how to best leverage its own internal partnerships. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) complements IDA’s efforts in private sector development by focusing in particular on the financial sector, SMEs, agribusiness, healthcare and infrastructure modernization. The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) currently has two active projects in Moldova.

B. IMF-World Bank Collaboration in Specific Areas

3. IDA’s partnership with the IMF in Moldova’s development strategy has been strong over the past few years. The Bank, together with the IMF and other development partners, prepared Policy Notes on key economic and social challenges to address the impact of the crisis. The Notes were instrumental in the preparation of the Economic Stabilization and Recovery Program for 2009–11. Bank and IMF staff have executed joint work and have continued to carry out joint missions at least twice a year for macroeconomic policy dialogue with the Government. The IMF is taking the lead on macroeconomic issues, while IDA takes the lead on structural and social issues. In a number of areas where the mandates of the two institutions overlap, such as public finance, the work is being closely coordinated to ensure that consistent advice is provided to the authorities. The existence of an IMF program has been an important input for the determination of the adequacy of the macroeconomic policy framework.

Areas in which the World Bank leads

4. The Bank’s dialogue by the end of this CPS has stressed the importance of improving the competitiveness and thereby increase the volume of Moldovan exports, especially in EU markets. Our budget support operation seeks to reduce administrative burden of business regulation; reduce non-tariff barriers to trade; gradual harmonization of product standards with the EU standards; improved legal framework for insolvency, reduce overlap inspections; fewer anti-competitive practices; increased competitiveness of Moldovan agro-food export products; more competition in telecommunications sector; reduced cost of and increased access to credit for credit worthy SMEs; greater use of remittances in financial intermediation and development of capital markets. In addition to budgetary support, the World Bank scaled up financing to a series of existing and successful operations in order to mitigate the impact of the economic downturn and help a speedier recovery.

5. In the social and health areas, the Moldova Social Investment Fund 2 (MSIF2) was scaled up to prepare a public works program, which provided job opportunities to the unemployed, while also building desperately needed community infrastructure. Also, during the economic crisis, the Global Food Crisis Response helped to protect and improve the health and nutritional status of vulnerable populations. This was achieved through interventions to decrease the nutritional vulnerability of pregnant women, lactating mothers and young children, and provision of temporary cash transfers to social institutions for the elderly, children and people with mental and physical disabilities. Additional financing was provided to the Health Services and Social Assistance Project to improve the efficiency and viability of the primary health sector. The Strengthening Social Safety Net results-based operation will seek to improve the efficiency and equity of social assistance through a fiscally sustainable expansion and strengthening of the targeted Ajutor Social Program.

6. In education, the ongoing Quality Education in Rural Areas Project (ending in FY13) supports the Government's education program to enhance the quality of teaching and learning, increase access and equity, improve the efficiency in public spending for education, and strengthen education planning and monitoring. A new Education Reform Project, currently under preparation, will provide much-needed support to important reform efforts intended to increase the efficiency of the general education sector, while simultaneously improving the quality and relevance of education to meet the demands of the modern economy. The Bank’s support will also address the potential risks of such reforms, including of increased drop outs and marginalization of minority groups or the poorest, through a monitoring and evaluation scheme that tracks students to gauge the impact of reforms.

7. In the area of competitiveness, additional financing was added to the Competitiveness Enhancement Project (CEP) to facilitate the growth of an export-oriented real sector with: (i) a line of credit through qualified commercial banks to support investment and working capital needs of exporting enterprises; and (ii) expanded matching grant scheme to assist enterprises with upgrading their labor skills and management practices, and introducing new products.

8. In the area of rural and agricultural development, the Rural Investment and Services Project 2 (RISP2) was scaled up primarily to add financing to the existing and well-performing line of credit to rural entrepreneurs for farm and off-farm activities. Access to credit is an important constraint to economic activity in Moldova and the situation has worsened due to the global crisis. The RISP2 line of credit helped mitigate the impact of the crisis. The recently approved Agricultural Competitiveness Project is set to enhance the competitiveness of the agro-food sector by supporting the modernization of the food safety management system, facilitating market access for farmers, and mainstreaming agro-environmental and sustainable land management practices.

9. In public sector management, the World Bank manages a multi-donor Trust Fund to support the Government’s efforts to reform the Central Public Administration. The Bank also supports the development of the Government’s Public Financial Management System through a new information system, as well as technical assistance in support of internal controls and audit.

10. With regard to infrastructure development, the Bank is concentrating on upgrading basic utility services impacting the population at large and the poor in particular. The recently completed Energy 2 Project was scaled up to provide heating systems to public institutions, reduce losses in electricity transmission and distribution networks. The National Water Supply and Sanitation Project is aimed at: (i) improving the coverage, quality, efficiency, and sustainability of water and sanitation services in selected urban and rural communities; and (ii) enhancing the capacity of Ministry for Construction and Territorial Development (MCTD) to prepare and supervise the implementation of investment program and to provide technical assistance to the operating Apa Canals. The Bank-financed Governance E-Transformation Project is looking at opportunities to use ICT as a tool for improving governance and tackling corruption.

11. During this CPS period a number of interventions have helped address climate change vulnerabilities by reducing environmental degradation, specifically soil conservation, community forestry development, pollutant management, emissions reduction, and agricultural pollution-related activities. With the recently completed Energy 2 Project and follow-up Energy Efficiency TA, the Bank will help Moldova increase its energy efficiency. Water resources management and adaptation to increasing water shortages and an increasing risk of flooding is likely to be a key issue in the long run to mitigate climate risks. The Disaster and Climate Risk Management Project will help address this through improved hydro-meteorological services and preparedness.

Areas of shared responsibility

12. Macroeconomic development. The Bank’s team cooperates closely with the IMF in the process of implementation of the 2011 Country Economic Memorandum (CEM). The Bank and the IMF jointly prepared a high level retreat in October 2009 to discuss current economic situation and the best options of crisis response with the whole cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Moldova. These eventually led to new financing programs of both institutions concluded with the government and a very successful Consultative Group meeting of Development partners held on March 24, 2010 in Brussels. Development partners expressed their strong support for the Government’s strategies elaborated based on the consultations with the IMF and the WB and indicated financial support totaling US$2.6 billion over the next four years, of which 30 percent was in budgetary and balance of payments support. The dialogue between the IMF, WB and the key government officials on the drivers of economic growth and growth strategy of Moldova in general was continued during the last IMF mission on May 3–17, 2012.

13. Public expenditure management. The Bank is going to support the dialogue between the IMF and the Government on the 2012 budget. In this context, a policy note was prepared by the World Bank Staff that analyzes capital public expenditures and its management in more detail and provided some advice on how capital investment management can be improved.

14. Debt management. The Joint IMF/WB team provided to the Ministry of Finance of Moldova technical assistance on the Medium-Term Debt Strategy drafted in October 2009. The follow-up technical assistance mission of Bank and Fund teams with the aim of preparing a Debt Management Reform Plan visited Moldova in May–June 2011. Currently, authorities are implementing their reform plan based on the WB/IMF team advice.

Moldova: Bank and Fund Planned Activities in Macro-critical Structural Reform Areas July 2012—June 2013

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Annex III: Moldova: Statistical Issues

(As of August 23, 2012)

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Moldova: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of August 23, 2012)

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Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Daily (D), weekly (W), monthly (M), quarterly (Q), annually (A), irregular (I); and not available (NA).

Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC or the Substantive Update (published 03/2006, and based on the findings of the mission that took place during July 17-19, 2005) for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO); largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).

Same as footnote 7, except referring to international standards concerning source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of source data, assessment, and revision studies.